Recognizing the Obvious

The race for the democratic nomination is over. John Kerry is going to be the nominee.

He’s my third favorite after Clark and Edwards, but he’s the favorite of most everyone else judging from the results so far and the poll numbers in the next three states, Tennesee, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

By Feb 10th, Kerry will have won big in the southern states of Tennesee and Virginia, where Clark and Edwards are likely to make their last stands. On the 17th, he will win big in Wisconsin which is the place Dean has said he’ll make his last stand.

I am not sure it will actually go that long before the Dean, Clark, and Edwards campaigns throw in the towel. It’s hard to keep these campaigns funded when the contributors know who is going to win. Nobody likes to “throw good money after bad”.

Is such an early victory good for the Democrats? I am not sure. Kerry is a “known quantity” so its not like we are taking a risk with someone who hasn’t been battle tested. But the overwhelming media attention that the Democrats have been getting has been in parallel with a significant slip by Bush in the approval ratings. I think there are a number of reasons for Bush’s problems, many of them self imposed, but the spotlight of the media on Kerry and the other attractive Democrats like Edwards and Clark, and their attacks on Bush, are also an important part of the slip in the ratings for Bush.

If the campaign ends this week or next, how are the Democrats going to stay in the spotlight? I don’t know.

And the Bush smear campaign will start in force now that they know who to smear. That worries me.

All I can say is those of us who want someone who values policy over politics, truth over lies, and friends over enemies should get behind John Kerry now and don’t stop working for him until the election is over in November.