I am always thinking about what is next and I feel like I’m spending even more time this year thinking about this. All of us at USV seem to be pondering this question a lot right now.
I came across this nice post by Ben Thompson in which he ponders the question out loud, which is my favorite way to ponder.
Here is the money quote:
While the introduction of the iPhone seems like it was just yesterday (at least it does to me!), we are quickly approaching seven years – about the midway point of this epoch, if the PC and Internet are any indication.4 I sense, though, that we may be moving a bit more quickly: the work/productivity and communications applications have really come into focus this year, and while the battle to see what companies ride those applications to dominance will be interesting, it’s highly likely that the foundation is being layed for the core technology of the next epoch:
Ben’s framework is roughly similar to ours but his conclusions are a bit different as follows:
1) I would substitute personal mesh for wearables
2) I would substitute the blockchain stack for bitcoin
3) I would bet on messenger as the next mobile OS over anything else. We have already seen that happen in China.
But in any case, posts like Ben’s and what comes of them (this) are super helpful. Thanks Ben.