My Election Dashboard

Tom Watson’s post on the book makers in London changing the odds on Kerry made me think it was time to revisit my election dashboard. While it still shows solid numbers across the board for Bush, the trend is going Kerry’s way for the first time since June.

Here are the three sites I visit to take the temperature of the election.

Electoral College

Futures Market

Bush Approval Ratings

The first debate shifted the dynamic in this race for sure. The question is will it be a meaningful shift or a blip. I suspect the next couple debates, including the VP debate, will be the key to answering this question. If Kerry/Edwards continue to come off as thoughtful and presidential and Bush/Cheney continue to come off as defensive and bull headed, then Kerry will continue to gain. If Bush/Cheney get the race back to a referendum on Kerry, then the gains will be short lived.

What’s interesting is that Bush’s approval ratings are right at 50%. Half the country thinks he’s doing a good job and half doesn’t. Kerry has to convince pretty much every one of the half that thinks that Bush is doing badly that he can do better. That’s a tough sale.

The changing dynamic in the race has not yet hit the electoral college sites. It will be interesting to see if that starts to change this week.