My Election Dashboard (continued)

I visited my election dashboard sites today.

Something weird is going on at the Iowa Business School Futures Market. They captured the big debate-driven move that Kerry made earlier this month, but now they have a sizable Bush bounce. I don’t see that in my other two dashboard sites.

Take a look at Bush’s approval ratings. After being sub 50% all year, Bush’s approval ratings moved up above 50% in the late summer and held there until the debates. Now they are falling fast and may reach the low point of 45% before the election. That would be bad news for Bush. It’s hard to be re-elected when 55% of the country thinks you are doing a bad job.

The electoral college numbers are also looking better for Kerry.

So I am not sure what to make of all this, but if I was trading on the Iowa Business School market right now, I’d be shorting Bush at $0.60 and buying Kerry at $0.40 all day long.