Some Android News
As a self proclaimed Android fanboy, I thought I'd talk about a couple things I'm excited about in Android land.
1 – Android is seeing 500k activations a day and that number is growing 4.4% week over week. More users means a stronger platform and hopefully more and better apps. I've added at least a dozen awesome android apps over the past few weeks.
2 – We've got a new flagship Android handset coming out. I love my Nexus S but the new Nexus Prime seems even better. I love the idea of scrapping the menu buttons from the bottom of the device and replacing it with more screen real estate. I also love the idea of naming a phone after a transformer.
Over the past six months I have watched my wife and two partners move from Blackberry to Android. None of those decisions was easy and without some pain. But I think they are all quite happy with the decisions and the Android platform. The Gotham Gal couldn't imagine a phone without a physical keyboard so she is on the HTC G2. One of my partners is on the Nexus S and the other is on the orignal Nexus. I'm going to get him a Nexus Prime when it comes out.
It is fun being on a platform that is growing rapidly, improving with every software build, and attracting lots of new developers and applications.
This is probably becoming one of the boldest and most successful strategic moves a tech company has ever made. Sure, Google is not yet making money with Android [actually, it seems they do, but I’m not sure that’s matching the investment they’ve made so far], but more than ever they’re becoming a “synonymous” of “internet” and “connectivity”.
You’re right. But it’s not money from phone software they’re after… It’s mobile search. if they control the mobile software, they have a competitive advantage on mobile search. And thats were they get the return on their investment.
I’m not even sure “ad” is the game here. I think it will actually be hard to monetize the mobile experience with ads. I feel it’s more about “being the internet” for Google.
Hmm…Google is the Internet? This is pretty squishy especially for any of the hundreds of millions who start and navigate their days through a social desktop.I’m interested Julien, but without social chops this seems aspirational at best.
Except that we do it from an Android device! I know it’s not 100% the case (and will not be), but Google has hedged themselves : no matter Facebook or Twitter if Google (thru Android or ChromeOS) is ahead of the experience!
Maybe…we will both be watching and participating in this race.But my gut tells me that Google, no matter how hard they are trying, are as yet socially inept. They get search, they just don’t get behavior in any demonstrable way.
You and @awaldstein:disqus both see the same picture. Google has a lot of money, so they can look at the picture from the 4-6 yr. POV. The end run consumer is the true trophy. We are passing beyond the enforced fad of making iOS more than it is. As the bipolar race becomes triangled, the consumer will be all the more happier.That way, the consumer can get a flexible device that becomes what he/she feels comfortable with. It is a matter of 3rd Dimension.Arnold- love the term ‘Contextual Blips’ for as our back and forth recently, to be truly real time is to be within the blip.
(sorry Julien)@awaldstein:disqus are you so sure they are socially inept. That circles idea looks so appealing right about now, though I have friends who will stay away because they feel Google owns too much of their information…
TOO BAD GOOGLE BEHIND THEN. THEM HAVE LOTS OF MONEY FROM EXISTING LEGACY AD BUSINESS. JUST LIKE EVERY PEAKED BUSINESS SLOWLY DYING, THEM DESPERATELY THROW MONEY AT HAIL MARY PASSES.WAVE, BUZZ, PLUS BUTTON, ALL JUST LATEST FAILURE. NOTHING BUT SEARCH EVER MAKE GOOGLE ANY MONEY, AND SEARCH BEING DISRUPTED BY SOCIAL AND MOBILE.
I agree, it is squishy – in addition, for harder search problems, I frequently don’t use google anymore. Twitter provides me higher quality answers for many search scenarios. It’s not as easy to use because you have to get the hash tags right, but when you do, you get nearly instant-human-curated answers directly to your question without having to read articles or hunt ‘n’ peck.I think mobile search is going to be a totally different paradigm than desktop search. For example, an interesting search experience, particularly for the mobile phone, might be to send your question off into the either, ala twitter style and then wait for the answer via push technology. More robust use of Geo location … etc.I think it’s critical for Google to own significant mobile marketshare so they can continue to innovate search experience and remain ‘search’ on the Internet.
Agree…without mobile marketshare, Google and ‘search’ may become different verbs. Twitter and search…we are probably thinking alike with different terms. You ‘human curation’, me ‘contextual blips’ on the interest graph. Twitter has become a real connector for me as well.
Do you use less “google” or less “search”? I think it’s probably more of the former (thru other products: android, gmail, gmaps…, some of them you may not know about) and less of the latter. I know a bunch of engineers at Google (maybe 20 or 30), and I can only come up with maybe 2 or 3 names of people who seem to be work on search per se. Google is now far far beyond search.
@awaldstein:disqus yes that’s certainly my point – well said. @julien51:disqus for me it’s both. I use less search at this point than I used to and I use less google when I do search.
Twitter/foursquare could be super effective if they master geo-searching and geo-ad targeting.
Don’t you think at some point google will want to monetize this Android investment by actually licensing the software for a fee? Once you have an active user base, surely committed hardware vendors would pay $5-$20 a phone for the software. Also, given the poor performance of GOOG stock relative to AAPL, shareholders should step up and demand they show so money from this success.
I think they will monetize Android in a way or another. I’m not sure which yet. There are obvious synergies between Android and many of Google’s current product, but I believe there is also some kind of grander business model here. Be it payments, licensing fees, or some other kind of ads…
Keep in mind – Android isn’t free to the OEMs building devices. The big ones have patent licensing fees they are paying to Microsoft (and possibly others, but MS is the one most covered in the press). If Google were to try and add a licensing fee, they would end up costing more than a Windows Phone license when you take into account the existing licensing fees the OEMs are paying.
SOON AS EVERYONE DECIDE IT TIME TO TAKE KNIFE TO ANDROID, THEM BURY IT IN LICENSING FEES.WINDOWS JUST FIRST. APPLE DOING IT NOW, NOKIA, HP, BLACKBERRY, ALL TAKE TURN STAB ANDROID IN BACK, UNTIL EVERY ANDROID PHONE COST MORE IN PATENT LICENSES THAN COMPETITORS.GOOGLE NEED STOP BRINGING HAPPY SMILE AND FLOWERS TO GUN FIGHT.
i don’t think they will go there
monetize? how about having a google search box on *every* screen to boot?did you think that was for free?
Android is a moat that protects Google’s search business. No different than Chrome where you type your search into the url bar.When you search for a place on Android which search engine does it use?As more and more people use phones to search, especially for things local do you think Google wants to control that experience and will give away the operating system to do it?
By the same token, apps, music, and video are moats that protect Apple’s hardware business. They contribute very little to Apple’s bottom line.
Is it really so? I was looking at the Apple TV business and my impression was that there the money is in the content, and their hardware is discounted to be a sales channel for the money in video content. But I don’t have any good numbers on it, so my impression might be mistaken – is video content really just a moat there for Apple ?
This is why Apple TV is still a “hobby”.
Interesting…To run with this metaphor then, that will change when they start marketing the glass/TV itself. I’ve never been convinced that that is their direction but you’re suggesting some logic that pushes me to rethink that.
I don’t think they will sell a TV. The margins on TV’s are sub 5%. The replacement cycle is much longer than Apple likes. Many people buy TVs based on price.I think they look at TV and see a lot of users, but they have no idea how to make “Apple margins” in the space. They do not want to be in a high volume low margin business unless it supports some other high margin business. (ITMS exists to support iPods)
Well segmented.So this race for the mass market, in your analogy, will segment into which moat/which value quotient the consumer chooses to swim in then?
replying to @awaldstein:disqus It should make app developers (and media content creators) on the iOS side very worried. They are a commodity to Apple.
Well said. You know with a 30% cut I thought Apple would make a ton of money on apps.When I did the research, you are right. Really not very profitable.Really makes you think when people complain about the big “cut” that “control freak” Apple takes.
Right on TV margins. Right on replacement cycles.Not certain that iOS developers are feeling that tinge of uncertainty as yet. Not seeing it in my networks.
Really? iOS 5/iCloud is doing to devs what Apple has always done to devs. Devs are OS R&D to Apple, do something cool and they’ll copy it and bake it into the OS.Apple is like the crazy, hot girl you dated in college. She abuses you but you don’t care.
Apple’s moat also includes ease of use and cross function integrational ergonomics.
NOT MAKE APP MAKERS WORRIED. MAKE HAPPY.APPLE SUPPORT APP MAKERS BECAUSE THEM PROVIDE COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE. GOOGLE NOT SUPPORT APP MAKERS, BECAUSE THEM GIVE NOTHING TO GOOGLE. JUNK APPS SERVE ADS SAME AS GOOD ONES. RESULT? GOOGLE PHONES HAVE JUNK APPS, MOST APP MAKERS GO TO IPHONE.
ME SEE YOU READ SAME THINGS GRIMLOCK READ.ANDROID MOAT AROUND GOOGLE AD BUSINESS. PAID APS WITH NO ADS DIRECT THREAT TO THAT.THIS WHY ULTIMATE FORM OF ANDROID HAVE ADS FORCED INTO ALL INTERACTIONS. CONSUMER THAT WANT NO ADS HAVE TO BUY IPHONE OR HP PHONE.TOO BAD FOR GOOGLE THEM OPEN SOURCE ANDROID. IT TAKE LITTLE EFFORT FOR CARRIERS TO STRIP GOOGLE AD HOOKS, INJECT THEIR OWN.ME, GRIMLOCK, THINK GOOGLE CREATE TROJAN HORSE, LET CARRIERS INSIDE, THEN DRIVE INTO OWN CASTLE. IT GOING TO BE WORST THING THEM EVER DO.
I thing your right. In the long run advertisers will be disinter-mediated but this does not help Google it chokes off their air supply.Hopefully some transparent, proportional payment driven, background monetizing mechanisms will emerge across many internet content sectors such as music, video, news ect. This reconnects content/service providers directly to their real customer, the end users, without the advertising pollution. In the end we, the consumers, are indirectly paying all those ad supported revenues anyway.Location advertising, product discovery, product reviews and price comparison functions should be implemented atop a dedicated commerce based search engine system. A convenient needs-based, i.e. pull not push, advertising search mechanism is probably a better value equation for both advertisers and consumers.I like the idea of doing a location, product discovery, product review or price comparison function via a dedicated product search engine and getting back targeted multidimensional Cooliris style ad Decks. I think Cooliris should build out such a commercial search-engine atop their ad-deck product! I have no connection to Cooliris. I just like some of their stuff.
I think the biggest challenge is the massive gulf between a consumer getting something free and having to pay one penny.That’s always why there has been interruption advertising. Its much easier to a get a couple of companies to pay huge bucks to have an interruption advertisement than it is to get millions of consumers to pay a tiny amount.
That is so true but with a little imagination that could change.ExampleI spend little to nothing on magazines and newspapers as do most people these days. If the print journalism industry would offer a reasonable yearly blanket subscription to all their offering atop their own news based search engine I’m in.What constitutes a reasonable blanket yearly subscription fee from an industry wide point of view? Not very much as they are presently receiving $0 from millions of potential consumers. Same goes for the music and video industries.These industries need to think in terms of offering their product in the aggregate at low cost. They need to start thinking in terms of mass statistical pricing policies and make their money on scale. Their old business model is dead, stop flogging that dead horse.They need to ask themselves how much the average user can easily afford to spend for a complete year of access to their industry wide product line. NetFlix is sort of accomplishing this in video against great headwinds from a visionless industry.They can divvy up the revenues proportional to the consumption of their particular content inputs.Serious question here?How much aggregate site advertising revenue is made off an average user’s in a year.
I’m fine with paying to a point, I’m not fine wasting an hour plus of my life trying to find out when I am going to get the stuff I paid for (I actually just wrote about this).It is the Amazon.com problem. How much is longtail content really worth? Not so much to individual users, but quite a lot in aggregate. As a result, without a physical good component, it is something very hard to price
Reply to your second reply: Mark Cuban had an interesting post about how people that sold a-la-carte get disintermediated, but those that aggregate do not. He uses it to say why music got crushed but cable tv won’t.I wonder though if you wouldn’t have anti-trust issues. If the top 20 newspapers got together and said you can pay $10 a month for all of our content, and agreed to put all of their content behind a firewall where you had to pay $5 a month.I would grudgingly pay.
the world champ! he’s right
Disintermediation of a-la-carte vs aggregate sellers seems like a very rational perceptive on it’s surface but as we move from linear to complex networked relationship execution I wonder weather those types of constraints will hold up?As McLuhan points out, if you push something far enough it will flip into it’s opposite.( i.e. from a useful tool or process into an impediment)If you push aggregation too far, as in getting in the way of your customer’s financial interests or user experience a gradient force will build towards your disintermediation.I thing it might be more accurate to say music got crushed but cable TV – NOT YET!——————–Anti-trust issues relating to an industry wide blanket content subscription would seem unlikely as this is simply a new format where content providers compete for a share of the blanket revenues based on the user consumption logs?Content providers would still offer competitive direct content sales so there is no industry wide price fixing just a new added blanket subcription option?
IT NOT HARD AT ALL WHEN YOU CONTROL OS.ONCE THEM HAVE LOCK, NEXT ITERATION OF ANDROID FORCE ADS IN FROM OF ALL USE OF PHONE.THAT NOT SPECULATION. IT STATED GOOGLE PLAN.
I would imagine the same (or more so) can be said about Apple. They were a computer and music player company that is now known more for their phone. Google saw that as a good idea I guess, the difference being Apple is extremely profitable with their phone and OS.
Per Andy Rubin, they are already making money off Android. And that is probably without advertising revenue from mobile ads.
Google says Android is profitable for them. http://allthingsd.com/20101…http://www.engadget.com/201…
Actually, Eric Schmidt said publicly that Android is break even on increased search volume and the accompanying ad revenue.http://www.engadget.com/201…It’ll be interesting to see if they can really get to a billion devices as they’re projecting. But either way, it’s a huge moat around the search business as has been widely discussed.
Can you do a top 10 Android Apps post? As I would love to see what you are using. I would assume the top couple of Apps would be Gmaps, Twitter, 4square, FB and Instagram?
“dozon awesome android apps” has peaked my curiousity as well…
will get on that
Though Nexus Prime was unwilling to use his more supernatural powers, lest he draw unwanted attention towards himself, he was still able to easily beat their attackers. As they left the group of dazed Decepticons behind, Nexus Prime and Aquarius wandered through a Cybertronian marketplace.Midtown Manhattan Hotel
Anyone have any demographic data on android vs iPhone? In my social circle, it’s women on iPhone and men on android (generally speaking). Anyone have actual data on this?
android is for guysiphone is for girlsat least that’s what the numbers show
Going from BB to Android is an easy decision. What might be interesting to know is: out of the RIM defectors, what % is going to Android vs. iPhone? At the last Gillmor Gang podcast, one of the commentators mentioned that monetizing stand-alone apps on the iOS market was almost 5X that of Android’s http://ronnie05.wordpress.c… . If Google organized the Android marketplace a bit more, a la Apple, that would go a long way. “Open” doesn’t have to be disorganized.
-Open doesn’t have to be disorganized-Good one William. Good ol’ ‘Forest thru the Trees’.
“80% of all paid applications have been downloaded less than 100 times in the Google Android Market worldwide to date.”– Source: Distimo Report.If you want to make money from your app, iOS still seems to be the best bet.
unless you want to monetize with advertising or in app purchases
Why is Android better than iOS for monetizing with advertising?
advertising requires massive volume that iOS may never be able to reach because price is a barrier to entry for many people.
google is an advertising powerhouseapple is not
DUMB PEOPLE WITH NO MONEY MORE LIKELY TO RESPOND TO ADS.IT ALL DEMOGRAPHICS.
I think for most app developers, relying on ads isn’t a viable strategy. Better to build something people are willing to pay for.
Or, if you already have a brand, it’s for distribution reasons, eg Hashable, Foursquare. Etc
IN-APP PURCHASE WORK FINE ON IOS, MAKING PEOPLE MONEY FOR LONG TIME NOW.ADVERTISING, NOT SO MUCH. IT DEMOGRAPHIC ISSUE. TYPICAL IOS USER NOT INTERESTED IN CLICK ON ADS, WILLING TO PAY TO AVOID.
William re monitizing apps – I have a friend who switched from galaxy tablet (android) to ipad 2 for the apps. He is an audiophile and the audio apps are apparently much better on ipad – so he switched, and presumably is buying apps.On the flip side my step-son switched from iphone to android. He loves his android phone and has had if for 6 weeks or so. When I asked him what kinds of apps he has downloaded he said something along the lines of “none, it already had what I needed, I might try some free apps”.This got me to thinking what kind of tension there will be between google apps on android devices over time vs independent developers interest in building non-free apps.
Building a business of selling mobile apps is a dead-end already. That business does not scale to anything bigger than a “man and his dog” shop.I’ve seen multiple mobile app startups at startup events around Europe. All are out of business by now.If you are going to bring up Rovio. Please do! They are the greatest example that selling mobile apps is a business model without a future. They get most of their revenue from marketing and advertising departments. And iOS ecosystem developers are in the same boat.
I’d like to bring up autodesk instead of rovio – they have a huge codebase that can be ported to build awesome android and ios apps (think: sketchbook pro) and, if they’re smart they will try to find paths to build disruptive apps and channels to support them.thoughts?
Since they are branching out they might get some additional revenue. But Idoubt that their mobile apps will bring in as much as AutoCAD. So theirmobile apps are like marketing alliances for Rovio.It’s all great when mobile apps are one more element in your productportfolo. But building a business around only mobile apps? A year too late.Though you may get lucky and create an app that will defy all odds, butyou’ll loose your mind breaking into the revenue tier where you can sustaindevelopment and support.
IF YOU NOBODY, YOU NOT GOING TO MAKE MONEY SELL APPS.IF YOU BIG BRAND, YOU IN BIG TROUBLE IF NOT HAVE APP VERSION OF PRODUCT.ANSWER CLEAR: OPEN SHOP, MAKE APPS FOR BIG BRANDS, USE TO AFFORD MAKE OWN APPS ON SIDE, HOPE TO GET LUCKY.(37 SIGNALS MODEL, BUT FOR APPS)
I just made the switch. I was on the original iphone for years, then went back to BB and was very happy. I tried a 2.2 build of Android last summer and was pretty dissapointed. 2.3 is now at the point where I think it beats the iPhone (if that is even the point…) and with Swype I am not sure I would even want to go back to BB.I think there are still some decent RIM related opportunities though — There are more @kik s: http://startupnorth.ca/2011…
w/ attention for fewer and fewer apps the real clincher will be with the app longtail…hey that’s android**that’s not android;p
I love the idea of open, transparent, free. I hate the lack of smoothness on any android phone I have ever tried. Its funny how our patience for response has gone down to zero in this new digital age.
have you tried the nexus s? it is super smooth
Smooth out of the box, but how about after some usage? Comeeee onnnn I know theres gotta be some lag now
every device i have ever owned slows down after a year or more of usage.that’s why i can’t wait for the nexus prime
Fred: I’ve i’m on the Samsung Charge and while the 4g is amazing and the screen size is great apps are clunky, the marketplace is horrible, there are numerous UI inefficiencies and not a day goes by that I don’t miss my Iphone. That said, calls do not drop with Verizon ever.Google apps users will find android far better than the iphone, but I’m not sure it’s worth it — especially for mac users. I’m not nearly the geek you are and therefore consider my ability to use things more in touch with mainstream users.
unlike the iphone, android will support multiple marketplaces. amazon has great promise. and apps like appsfire, appoliciious, etc are also great for finding apps
I’m not so sure about the multiple marketplaces. I mean the software will, definitely, but…would a Google signed off phone really support/not lock out Amazon? There is money to be made in apps, and I am not sure if all of these companies are into sharing the pot of gold at the end of rainbow.
Why so many app marketplaces? That’s part of the issue- Android mkt is not well organized. Maybe Amazon can emerge as a winner.
William, what matters is that you get a consistent ability to find apps. for example with appsfire you can in once interface look for the apps both present in the market and amazon store and even compare prices…
I moved away from the corporate BlackBerry around January 2010 when the first Nexus came out. Never looked back.
500k activations per day is amazing. And if that growth rate continues, we’ll be looking at more than 170 million Android activations in the next half a year alone. That’s just mindblowing!
I’ve been spending a bunch of time at with Qualcomm’s HQ in SD, and the stuff I’ve been seeing in R&D is diabolically cool.The interesting post Fred that needs written is how / why Android in many ways undermines the very business model of Google.A truly mobile computer (like Android) puts no digital intermediary in between you and the real world business you are walking past- the “atomic” business – the brick and mortar business. There is immense economic pressure to stop letting Groupon keep half and to stop paying GOOG $1 per click – and mobile is what accomplishes that.The paper that is printed, or even the digital signage – made important because someone hung the atomic sign matters far more when they can keep the $1 per click, the Groupon piece, and instead spend that $ directly on you.
OTOH you could pay premium rates for that same signage if you need to be in real time. In a city like ny, where density is high, that could be serious cash.Further, I think we’re missing that these are still effectively computers, which means for lots and lots of things, general search ads aren’t going away.
I don’t mean they go away, I mean the marginal value provided Goog, Facebook, and Msft is going to be chewed up as certainly as Groupon’s piece of the action.
I’m not totally sure. I’m running ads about myself right now, and as a result this has become a topic of discussion between my dad and some of his clients, particularly dentists*. As it also happens, I’m also looking for a new dentist.Let’s pretend that my dad didn’t have a number of dental clients. I want one near me or where I work. If I have dental insurance, I want a dentist who will take my insurance. I’m also likely not to just walk into a dentist at random because I want to make sure the dentist has time to pick at my teeth and tell me that I should stop brushing so hard.In the end, I am going to use straight up google or something like Facebook to get a dentist. And I don’t think medical practices are the only local businesses with these sorts of issues at all.*Dentists have some interesting IT issues because of the depth of records they have to keep of your mouth in case you die.
funnily enough goog just killed e-health.Let me explain what I mean. Crest or Colgate runs an ad in a magazine and as a free service you point your fone at the ad, and it spits back the name and address of whichever dentist is cheapest.Crest makes no money, they just capture a direct connection to you, they get you interacting with and staring at the ad.The dentists, since they don’t have to fork over anything, have cut their cost of service – they charge essentially what they would make without paying GOOG $2 per click and clearing 1:15 clicks to new business.Even better, Colgate provides this service when you point the phone at the box or tube or toothpaste.Need a refill on your Stila make-up? point your phone at it – the cheapest replacement shows up in three days.No real intermediary is necessary. The world around you is the jumping off point.I’m not saying goog or groupon dies, but I think that the real world is going to reassert its dominance – and deep deep cuts in margins to eyeball aggregators seem in order.
I agree with your premise that there is immense pressure to reduce amounts paid to Google and Groupon.I also believe that the tough part about technology is that as it ages competitors will reduce margins to the marginal cost of delivery which is so low that it makes economic sense to just give it away.However, I’m not sure how Android does this. It seems that if people use their phones for everything it becomes even more important (and valuable) to be at the top of the search list?
at least they are in the game in mobile
UNTIL CHINA, OR ANYONE ELSE, TAKE OPEN SOURCE PART OF ANDROID, CUT OUT GOOGLE, SELL BACK TO CARRIERS SO THEM PUT OWN ADS WHEREVER THEM WANT.MOMENT THAT HAPPEN, GOOGLE SELL NO MORE PHONES, “ANDROID” DIE, BECOME JUST ANOTHER PROPRIETARY CARRIER OS, DIFFERENT FOR EACH CARRIER.IT HAPPENING NOW.
nah, they can rip iphones apart too, just like they’ve done with set-top boxes, satellite receivers and everything else.
Thanks for the heads up. Since a cursory glance at your comments here at AVC reveals that you’re functionally retarded, I’ll be happy to begin shorting Qualcomm
go nuts! here to help.
whoa. no insults here please
I think someone has to crack the code on better mobile browsing and screen size has a lot to do with it. Since most sites either have not removed flash or have a mobified site, cell phones need to work in this existing universe for now. Esp android phones and in particular HTC has built 4 inch full screen size and >1ghz chip horse power into units. This matters. Bottom line competition and capitalism is the greater driver of consumer utility and lower prices that scale to the masses. It will make things better esp if the rumors are true that the Iphone 5 will be full screened and lte. And since its only the bottom of the 3rd inning I wish the FTC would kill the ATT/ tMobile merger, its just bad for consumers, come on 80% share? Wasnt it just last week that ATT bought Cingular? Competition is great for the things we care about. This week Verizon no longer offers “unlimited” data, joining AT&T. LTE is supposed to solve this. Clearly AT&T and VZ are going in the worst direction. Is this the future us fanboys and girls want?
“Over the past six months I have watched my wife and two partners move from Blackberry to Android.” Was the option of moving from BB to iPhone allowed or discussed?
sure. none wanted to
If the 500k activations per day (?) is accurate, that’s a number that gets my attention.But I don’t see android (yet) impacting iOS sales or popularity, perhaps never even. The market for android devices is far too fragmented atm to be wielded as a singular marketing tool against iOS devices. Of course this could change, but every day it doesn’t Apple maintains +/or claims new customers.The company that should obv be terrified is the one that you, your wife & your partners left: RIM. They must have corporate whiplash from how quickly the entire industry was redefined + moved on – without them.
agreed on all counts
I’m tempted to edit my earlier post & insert something like ‘John is awesome’.
do you think mercedes cars are unpopular?it’s not a matter of popularity, but sales volume.
Popularity drives sales, both for brand new + existing customers. I think both are important – that why I mention them both.
YES. SALES OF KIA NOT IMPACT SALES OF PORSCHE.AT LEAST IN REAL WORLD, KIA FANS NOT ON EVERY PORSCHE SITE POST ABOUT HOW KIA SUPERIOR BECAUSE ALL THE TIRES AT WALMART FIT ON IT.
I’m a happy Droid X user and waiting for LTE on the right phone to upgrade; Mary’s on iPhone and happy (so we fit the assumed demographic). Just bought Mary an iPad for her birthday because we’ve been surrounded by friends – even applephobes – who love and use them. But I’m waiting for the right Droidpad to buy for myself. Here Apple still seems to be dominant and it’s a key battleground, obviously.
i love it tomyou and mary are quite the couple!!
I moved from BB to Android a few months ago when the Thunderbolt came out (I only wanted to carry 1 device and 4G tethering was a must). The UI is good, there are apps for almost anything I want to do, but the battery life is a real problem. Even with the extended life battery and Advanced Task Killer, my battery is still shot before my day is over unless I recharge, and it’s getting worse every week. Obviously, shorter battery life is the tradeoff between having multiple apps running at once on Android vs. just push notifications on iOS (and 4G is a major battery killer), but Google and the phone manufacturers need to get this problem solved to compete in the long run. It doesn’t matter how great the apps are if the battery is dead.
i carry a spare battery for my nexus s at all times. in the front pocket of my jeans
I went from BB to Android about 2 1/2 years ago and never looked back. It was such a good decision. I had a Droid and recently upgraded to a Thunderbolt. I love the Thunderbolt, but the battery life is truly abysmal. other than that the phone is awesome and completely rocks. I also sport an Asus Transformer tablet to further cement my androidiness. The rapid growth and open environemnt is one of the main reasons we are first deploying our upcoming app TotalTab to Android first, and iPhone secondly. And blackberry possibly a distant third!
asus transformerwhat is it about android and transformers??you are a model android fanboy!
You bet. I’m definitely somewhat of a Google nerd… I’ve got the Google TV, Android phone & tablet, pretty much consume every Google service out there.I guess I’m not big on the worrying about Google stealing my identify 😉
Why are you pro losing the buttons? Don’t they add a generalized user experience feel?
they can be in software
makes it harder to have a set UX guideline without buttons (Apple has veryserious UX guidelines to be accepted into their App Store, android marketdoesn’t)Also, I really don’t like the new disqus emails, too heavy. I miss theplain text 🙁
what are some of the dozen or so apps that you’ve recently installed and are loving?
i will compile a list and post on it
I made the switch about a year ago and have no regrets except for the smartphone I selected. Like the Gotham Gal, I chose one with a keyboard. It would have been too much of a shock for my system to do without the keyboard. So I selected the Motorola Droid Pro. Big mistake.But otherwise, the decision to switch was easy: – no great app market for the blackberry; – Gmail on blackberry was terrible and there were no indications that google would be upgrading ( basic things like viewing html email was not possible )- there was an extra fee for a blackberry data plan with verizon ( i still don’t understand this )I will make a better decision when it comes to replacing my droid pro, but no looking back for defecting from the Blackberry.
Fred, I am curious what you think of the future of search and monetized searches? In other words, do you think that search will continue to be more profitable by the year or is there a risk for Google that people go directly to apps long-term and bypass search directly for the most profitable categories. ie. are people left searching only things like “what was Washington’s birthday” and we end up going directly to Amazon, Expedia, etc apps for the revenue generating stuff. Thoughts? Thanks!
i don’t know. it’s a good question. i’ll stew on it.
That is a good question, I’ve wondered about it.What if there were a search engine for a category that gave you the affiliate discount and the keyword cost as a discount and tried to monetize a different way?Would consumers be willing to use for the discount. Bing has tried this a bit but without a clear message about their strategy.Like media aggregators, Google is so easy I think most people gravitate towards the familiar.
I have a hard time thinking through the logical way this all plays out. On the one hand, you could convince me that Amazon will be the dominant and low/lowish price retailer so we should all go there and netflix will be the distributor of movies and expedia/priceline the provider of travel info and flixter/rotten tomatoes for movies, etc. However, when I think about it more and look at those business models I worry that they all get usurped by some newer and better products or direct models (with the exception of Amazon). So, if you bet against Google are you betting against innovation in ecommerce long-term? We know ebay, amazon, the travel sites, and the big players make up an enormous share of the pay per click ad pie but I am not willing to declare all the other sites winners so it seems difficult to declare google the loser.
The rise of Android is bittersweet for me. I love the platform, but I’m concerned what it will end up doing to Google. Google at it’s best is a set of cloud services that are agnostic to the client being used as long as it supports web standards. As the industry seems to be moving into more tightly integrated ecosystems, I think Google (like Apple and Microsoft) is going to have to start building more Android only features to differentiate. Google music already seems to be heading in this direction.
Buttons: as long as they leave the photo button alone. I am not even sure that getting rid of the others is a good idea, I have an iPhone as well and one of the things I always miss is the photo button (which the iPhone 5 is supposed to have) and the back button. Android market: they had a lot of new features that looked good, but with an announced launch date of June I have still not seen it happen yet which seems odd.
This was the plan for Android from day one. Andy is very clear about this.That is in stark contrast to Apple where I really do not believe that even they expected the iPhone to become the dominant platform that it has. If they had known, they probably would have done a few things differently.The fact that one’s dominance was planned and the other organic is one of the most interesting aspects of the smartphone wars to me.
Yes. Please convince all these startups to stop putting all the cool stuff on iPhone first. Its annoying.Google needs to help devs extract revenue from their apps, as Android users seem to not be willing to pay for apps too often (partially Google’s problem with Checkout).
i’m trying and have been trying for quite a while nowi have the scars in the back from the arrows i’ve taken from gruber and his crowd
Given the rapidly expanding handset and application marketplace, are there proportional concerns with the security on Android devices? They are becoming the largest target for malware and viruses. There are some great security offerings in the marketplace (Lookout, etc.) but it still seems like Google needs to get a handle on who is accessing their OS and how they mitigate threats as they arise. Doesn’t a significant threat bring a level of doubt on the whole approach?
Android ecosystem is a very vibrant and interesting place. And it is getting better and better in an almost light speed, even though this permanent beta stage philosophy is hurting app developers a little bit, and usability suffers as well. So, not everything is perfect, but it is extremely close to that.IMHO the biggest potential still lies in cheap smart phone segment where iOS cannot compete, WP7 is way to locked down and expensive and Symbian is a thing of a past. Enormous potential in BRIC. And bigger part of Africa as well.Where Android needs to grow up a bit is billing systems (get operators on board asap, one is not enough), cut down on ROM changes and improve quality app discovery.andraz from http://www.toshl.com
I have had my Droid Incredible for over a year now and as much as I love it, it leaves a lot to be desired. I am tired of little things just not working how they should and the “market” of 200,000 crap apps. Despite my affection to the ‘openness’ of android, I think I may invest in an Iphone 5/4s whenever it comes out in the fall. Anyone else in the same predicament?
get a nexus s. it’s like an iphone but running android
Which one is doing the original Nexus? Name and shame. 😉
HTC made Nexus One.Samsung did Nexus S and appears to be doing Nexus Prime.
No, I meant which USV partner was on Nexus One?
No, I meant which USV partner was on Nexus One?
I’m on an Android phone (well, actually, I just gave the phones to my kids because I hated that a) it rung all the time with people calling me and b) it was geo-locating me all the time.This was not due to any love whatsoever of the opensource or Google cults, as you well know, but simply because of a simple better deal from a store right on your Union Square with a Verizon contract. These are annoying because you have to have them for 2 years.But I wish the cell phones would get like Europe. Do you know, you can pick them up there in drug stores in giant bargain bins like generic glasses, and just use them right away without all this contract stuff.
i wish for that too prokofy
It took me a lot of perseverance to stick with the Nexus One when I first got it. The level of refinement of the iPhone just wasn’t there (and app quality still falls a little short IMHO). However, I had a strong belief in the platform, and the google apps integration was of course killer, so I stuck with it. Each upgrade has made a huge improvement, and with Gingerbread, the usability rivals iOS. I’m also a fan of the Amazon Appstore.I’ve got to upgrade from the Nexus One at some point soon; there are a few annoying quirks like limited internal storage (plus I don’t have 3G w/ it on AT&T). I’m still going to weigh out Nexus Prime vs. iPhone 5, but I’m digging Android.
albert is on nexus one and it is not that greatnexus s isnexus prime looks really great
It would interesting to see NEXUS Prime take on the famous poster “Grimlock” in a cage match. We could live stream it to all of your posters on their respective platforms.
that would be awesome
IT ALWAYS AWESOME WHEN GRIMLOCK DESTROY THINGS. ‘<
I think it’s a pretty damning focus group here on AVC that out of over 75 comments only a few mention RIM and even lament changing phones. No one even seems to debate what RIM could become. Does anyone think they can reinvent themselves? Does anyone even care? Bueller? Bueller?
i used to
The story in tablet land is even more exciting: i’m now using a demo HTC Evo View 4G, 7″ and it’s my main device as it’s a pocketable laptop (Ok fine: pocketable if you’re tall and wear baggy pants).Enter your OnSIP credentials and voila, you’ve got phone.And it’ll be even better when the Honeycomb update comes out soon.
oooooohso jealousyou are an early adopter!
The new stocktwits android app fully real time streams and prices, drops tomorrow. Hope you try it out.
i will try it. my problem is i don’t own public stocks
You have a chance to try the Portfolio Armor iOS app yet? I know you use an Android phone, but you can download it on your iPad. I gave Albert a promo code for it, but I’m not sure if he downloaded it. Cracked the top-15 among finance iPhone apps recently.BTW, re you not owning public stocks, how common is that among your social circle? Chris Dixon has mentioned he doesn’t own any either.
I am too busy to own public stocks. A company misses a quarter and I findout about it a few days later and the stock is down 20% before I know it.That happened a few times to me and I learned my lesson. The only time Ilike to buy public stocks is when wall street runs a going out of businesssale like they did in the second half of 2008
or, *maybe* if you’re a professional day trader using professional systems.Around 1999, I started and ran a development shop that helped build and optimize these (actually it was just me and 2 Stanford CS students). Datek was our biggest customer.I dealt with a lot of traders. Not one of them ever held a position overnight. And that was in a seriously upward market.
You’re fortunate enough to be able to invest in companies before they go public (and to have an information advantage in doing so). For the vast majority of investors, who are limited to publicly-traded securities, Portfolio Armor can help them hedge their risks — and have liquidity to take advantage of severe corrections, such as the one in ’08.
Every time I read comments like this I think of Robert Shiller’s necessary book “Macromarkets: Creating Institutions for Managing Society’s Largest Economic Risks”
From the linked article: “This upcoming superphone will not have any carrier preloads or OEM customizations”. <– Good, cuz they are almost always Luddite. Wish the carriers too would back off on most of that nonsense.Given all the carriers and OEM’s involved, fragmentation was so predictable and inevitable. We’ll see if the recent crackdown (by Andy Rubin) helps or actually makes it worse.
“I’ve added at least a dozen awesome android apps over the past few weeks.”We’d like to see your top list sometime. Android Market should have some sort of social app where you can follow other users and see their app lists.
i will work on that post
My blog used to be named “Crackberry Addict.”And now here I am in Android world and LOVING it – thanks to your recommendation.I went Droid Pro for the same reason @thegothamgal:twitter did. The BlackBerry-like keyboard is amazing and its a seamless Android experience.
I am moving from a blackberry to HTC Android this week. My girlfriend has an HTC, so I know what to expect. I don’t think I will miss my bb one bit.
I walked into an ocean marina and all the sailboats had big Tumblr icons on the top of their sails… I woke up soon after, but I may be reading this blog and using your funded web applications a little too much… but then again, obsession’s not so bad a quality when it represents “working towards changes you’d like to see in the world”
ME, GRIMLOCK, TOTALLY SEE WHAT YOU DO THERE, FRED.LET GRIMLOCK KNOW WHEN NEXUS GRIMLOCK COME OUT.
As an observer of both platform I do acknowledge the progress in distribtion but I don’t feel developers reach the level of satisfaction existing on iOs both on quality and monetization. Am I wrong?
i think your service will be much more useful on android than ios
we re already on android and users love our app. but from a monetization point of view we see more a lot more business activity and requests on iOS than for Android. we believe the reason is that developers on android have not found a way to monetize seriously their app and therefore have less ability to invest in marketing their service.This is an issue to grow so fast as an ecosystem and not to have a happy developer community. This will change because of all the efforts Google is puting in billing , in app and market upgrades. But this is not there yet and iOS has a strong advance on this
i’m a big believe in advertising and in app purchases long termi think buy before you try will go away
Not complete depend on Advertising
ME, GRIMLOCK, LIKE HOW FRED STICK TO GUNS DESPITE INCONVENIENT FACTS THAT CONTRADICT IDEAS.
Sadly apps dont really sell well on Android though. Our game Wisp had been up for 1½ month when we also released it on iOS. iOS sales beat the android sales in ONE day… :/
free apps supported with advertising or in app purchases are the future ofall appsbuying before trying is a pain
Fred yep, that’s why we are making our next game an IAP game all free. And that game actually has a hook! Finding a game with a hook today is hard, most stuff is just copy past of other games with some tiny change or addition.
FOR $1, IT NOT ENOUGH PAIN STOP MOST PEOPLE FROM BUY.MAKE ALL APPS AD SUPPORTED SOLVING PROBLEM THAT NOT NEED BE SOLVED.NEXT MAYBE YOU THINK ALL PLAYSTATION GAMES NEED BE FREE WITH COMMERCIALS?
Fred, I bet if u had only the word Android in the title with a blank post, there would be a flurry of comments.
Hey Fred, what are the top 7 android apps you use most?
browser, mail, calendar, twitter, maps, kik, foursquare
thanks! Guess I shoulda phrased the question to exclude the obvious choices like browser, mail, calendar and twitter :Gonna check out Kik now. Someday you should write a post about how you review / approach demoing new mobile apps. That would be interesting.
backing out the big fourkik, foursquare, maps, rdio, soundcloud, dropbox, cardiotrainer
Love android and love open, but unhappy with devices thus far. Nexus One was great, but I lost it last summer at the beach and it was dated by that point. I replaced with a Samsung Vibrant… horrible device. Next was a Nexus S… good for a few months but became increasingly buggy and unreliable. I sold it last month and switched to Verizon and to a Incredible 2. Great hardware (HTC is a vastly superior phone manufacturer than Samsung, IMO), but Verizon layers on so much crap with mandatory apps and setup that it detracts from the experience and feels less open and more restricted (for instance, tethering is no longer free as with the Nexus S). I’ve yet to find an android phone that is reliable for more than a few months. I hope that changes soon. I’ve been loyal since the beginning, but considering the iPhone 5.
Hey Fred, you commented that you carry a spare battery for your phone. You’re my target mobile warrior customer for our power solution. Any way to contact you?
Fred, what do you say about this: http://www.loopinsight.com/…
doesn’t jive with the numbers google is reportingbut it is hard to know what is really going on
That’s really a great news for me! Thanks for updating.
Android now is becoming more and more popular and powerful. So more and more people have turned to android. I also like android OS. It’s pretty much like iSO with easy operation. I used to have a windows phone. Compared with android phones, it’s way too complicated and the buttons are too small that you have to use a pen. It’s not convenient. Moreover, android has lots of free apps. i like free apps. And I enjoy playing game on my android tablet very much. I bought an android tablet from an online store( http://www.tabletpcunion.com ) It’s around 200 bucks, but it’s really great.
I think the biggest challenge is the massive gulf between a consumer getting something free and having to pay one penny.a deal a day