What Just Happened?

I’m not much for the rear view mirror. I like to look forward, not back. I guess that’s why I’m in the line of work I’m in.

But I’m going to force myself to look back at 2014 and explain what just happened. Doing that will help me look forward (tomorrow?) and explain what is going to happen.

This is not an attempt to be comprehensive, or accurate, or anything else. This is what I think happened in 2014:

1/ the social media phase of the Internet ended. this may have happened a few years ago actually but i felt it strongly this year. entrepreneurs and developers still build social applications. we still use them. but there isn’t much innovation here anymore. the big platforms are mature. their place is secure.

2/ messaging is the new social media. this may be part of what is going on in 1/. families use whatsapp groups instead of facebook. kids use snapchat instead of instagram. facebook’s acquisition of whatsapp in february of this year was the transaction that defined this trend.

3/ the “sharing economy” was outed as the “rental economy.” nobody is sharing anything. people are making money, plain and simple. technology has made renting things (even in real time) as simple as it made buying things a decade ago. Uber and Airbnb are the big winners in this category but there are and will be others.

4/ the capital markets have moved to the internet. we call it crowdfunding but what is really going on is raising money is a great application of a global platform that connects billions of people in real time. i don’t know the total amount of capital that was raised on the internet across all sectors (equity, debt, creative projects, charity, helping a person in need, real estate, energy, etc, etc) in 2014 but i am sure it is in the tens of billions.

5/ mobile OS has become a stable duopoly around the world. but android is splintering into google android and non google android and that may lead to new large players. 2014 was a big coming out party for xiaomi. if and when they come to the US, things will get interesting. they are the new (and better) samsung.

6/ mobile and messaging has started to impact the enterprise. slack is the poster boy for this trend in 2014.

7/ youtube became a monster. it always has been. but in 2014 youtube emerged as the place for entertainment consumption for anyone under 16. and these youngsters are going to grow up quickly. watching The Interview on YouTube was a fitting end to an amazing year for the king (and queen and joker too) of Internet video.

8/ we finally got rid of files. dropbox, google drive, soundcloud, spotify, netflix, hbogo, youtube, wattpad, kindle, and a host of other cloud based services finally killed off three letter filenames like mp3, mov, doc and xls. spending a week in the caribbean with young adults and bad internet was the tell on this one for me. they don’t even have mp3s on their iphones anymore!

9/ the net neutrality debate emerged as a national political issue with Obama’s endorsement of Title II regulation of the last mile of the internet. it is unclear how this issue will resolve itself but the public has spoken loudly and clearly and politicians understand that the internet needs to remain open for innovation and we can’t let the monopoly carriers and cable companies mess that up.

10/ cyberwarfare, cybercrime, cyberhacking, and cybersecurity was by far the dominant theme of 2014. if anyone had their head in the sand on this one before this year, they don’t anymore. this is our new normal. the US takedown of North Korea’s internet last week, and the state department official’s comment that “i guess accidents can happen” is a moment to remember as we head out of 2014 and into our future.

so that’s what happened in 2014 according to me. i am sure i left out many important things. you can add them in the comments. hopefully i’ll write a whats going to happen in 2015 tomorrow. i tried hard to keep this post backward looking and had to edit out a lot of forward looking statements as i wrote it.

happy new year everyone.

#VC & Technology#Web/Tech

Comments (Archived):

  1. William Mougayar

    How about Bitcoin, blockchains and p2p decentralization?At least for Bitcoin, I’d say that it has sparked a new field of innovation centered around blockchain technology as a software development platform, and not just an Internet money enabler. But the jury is still out on the forward direction. Certainly 2015 might be a revealing year for the cryptoconomy evolution, and maybe that will dominate the next 10 years, just as Social dominated the last 10.

    1. fredwilson

      2014 was a bad year for all of that. I guess I should have added an item for that. Bitcoin is hanging on but transaction activity is flat. All the alt stuff has turned out to be a waste of time and money. It reminds me of the Internet in 2001 and 2002. A total wasteland. A great time to invest in the right things. We are doing that or at least trying to do that

      1. William Mougayar

        You said innovation ended on Social as a mark of an end to that era. Well, innovation is just starting in crypto land.Why should we be content with Satoshi’s 2008 vision? As Vitalik pointed out today, 2015 is 007 Anno Satoshi.

        1. Donna Brewington White

          I was interested in that comment and wondered about your take.Maybe innovation has slowed/ceased but hasn’t social become a way of life? Although maybe not so much social as a medium?

          1. William Mougayar

            In my view, we are “applying” social now, yes that’s true & it permeated life. But from a technology-enabling point of view, I think it has been figured out largely.

          2. awaldstein

            Long form commenting on mobile then?

          3. William Mougayar

            Someone said tweetstorming as the new blog. Dunno, but mobile is in it. I’m lounging on a couch typing this, and did all my work so far this morning from a smartphone.

          4. fredwilson

            check out the AVC community on kik. that is long form commenting on mobile!

          5. awaldstein

            Will do.

          6. ShanaC

            can someone invite me in?

          7. fredwilson

            You don’t need an invite. Just a hashtag in KikIt’s in this posthttp://avc.com/2014/12/hash…

          8. ShanaC

            i did, you can’t search by hashtag, no? UNless i misread the post

          9. Donna Brewington White

            Got it. But will be interesting to see whether there is more disruption ahead.

          10. William Mougayar

            Social is a drug. We’re addicted. Now looking for the next drug 😉

          11. laurie kalmanson

            just get the implant

        2. awaldstein

          love to see the top 5 innovations that are off the whiteboard and in the early market.

          1. William Mougayar

            They are in the oven 😉

          2. awaldstein

            Then they don’t exist yet.Innovation is where the idea meets the market.

          3. William Mougayar

            Ah. Food sampling has started. But no champagne yet. You can tell I’m hungry.

      2. Mario Cantin

        So what you are predicting is that Bitcoin will emerge as the winner once adoption takes place, I think that’s clear. We’ve also heard you say that you speculate it will take maybe 10 years. It would be interesting to hear your best guess (may not be the best day to ask since you’re doing a recap) of how much you personally bet an individual bitcoin will be worth in the future.

        1. fredwilson

          i have no clue and i don’t really care

          1. Mario Cantin

            So it’s clearly not what’s important about Bitcoin from your perspective. Thank you.

          2. fredwilson

            that’s not true. i have written extensively about this here at AVC for a long time. here’s an example of that but there is a lot more in the archives http://avc.com/2014/10/bitc

          3. pointsnfigures

            Bitcoin will be big. All you have to do is travel internationally and you see the advantages.

      3. ShanaC

        what does activity look like now?

  2. Tom Labus

    9 and 10 can can have a major effect on 2015 events and could get out of control too. One other thing is crazy valuations like Instacart

    1. fredwilson

      yup. 9 and 10 will be important to what’s going to happen.i refrain from using the adjective crazy to describe valuations. i wrote this post as a way of saying thathttp://avc.com/2014/12/reve…

      1. Supratim Dasgupta

        Would love to see Fred’s take on Instacart valuation esp with his experience with Kozmo. I watched the documentary e-dreams on Kozmo last night on Netflix and my Mom was very disturbed after watching it.

        1. fredwilson

          i don’t know enough about their numbers to have a point of view on it

          1. Supratim Dasgupta

            Fred, There are two disturbing aspects about Instacart. These coupled with razor thin margins in grocery makes me doubtful about Instacart’s success.1. They are not open about the fact that their prices are significantly(30-35%) higher than retail price. Most customers feel they are only paying 3.99 for delivery and hence think its a great service. When customers start realising the truth they will leave the service in hordes.2. Their claims of delivery people making 25USD/ Hr is also very misleading. Most are making less than minimum wages and there is a huge backlash from the delivery community. See rating 2.8/5 here.http://www.glassdoor.com/Re…The second point is something that can be your point #11. The sharing economy has disrupted the minimum wages regulations by bringing in army of contractors who are paid nothing until they fulfill a job. Like Instacart, Lyft & other contractors complain they are not making even minimum wages after expenses and total time. even when the companies are making tall claims superficial hourly payments.

  3. andyswan

    Agree on all except #9 and the administrations completely absurd claim that North Korea attacked Sony when the reality is it was an inside job.The two of those combined are a tell that governments want very badly to seize control of the Internet via its faucets and pipelines, and will create any excuse to do so. For the children of course.As for the rest…wow. Fantastic list. Sharing economy was always dumb…private property is the cornerstone of a functioning society of individuals, and return on capital is a natural exercise thereof.Other takeaways from 2014:Media will push narrative regardless of facts.Gridlock is amazing and will be rewarded.Bitcoin is dead long live the blockchainTweetstorms are the new blogCalling a concept “a joke” can get you in hot waterBourbon has peaked, but there will be no crashFeminism 3.0 has been outed as a scam…masculine is backThe sky is not falling, but religion is still selling…this includes you global warming, gun control, white victim proponents and religious right.I will be in NYC next week if anyone wants to meet up reach out…I can host [email protected] u guys rock

    1. fredwilson

      substitute internet for bourbon and i think you are on to something

      1. andyswan

        I can sign off on that

      2. ShanaC


    2. Donna Brewington White

      With your opening line I wondered if Kid was rubbing off on you.Some great additions to the list.Not sure what you mean by “masculine is back”Wish I was in NYC next week. 🙂

    3. Matt A. Myers

      I’d like to make one caveat, and that is that capitalism in its current state is the cornerstone of this currently dis-eased state society of individuals; I don’t think homeless or perhaps even the poor people would consider themselves to be included in this society you speak of – kind of lame of us if we can create a machine to mass produce everything needed for everyone eh?

      1. Tilie

        Let alone the majority of people who live below the poverty line, and all the rest of the people excluded from money due to lack of education etc. If that machine exists it would indeed be a beautiful thing. Well it does if we get consumer power to purchase on a moral instead of an ecconomic basis

        1. Matt A. Myers

          All of the knowledge and resources needed to have it be accomplished exist, it’s a matter of creating the framework and getting enough people to support and promote the cause that leads to the tipping point of changing these robust systems.

          1. Tilie

            Yes!!!!!!!! here is to the Power and the Responsiability of the consumer, spender, purchaser, paricipant .My problem has been where, how to find reliable information on companies, products, manufacturors, service providers on thier philosophies, environmental credentials, civic responsiabilties, product make up, treament of workers, profits, returns to local community or any other value l may choose to know about how the company selling or making that product or service may operate. It seems to be a mammoth task. Perhaps it is my lack of knowledge and skills but, why when l google it l don’t get a website telling me this info. Perhaps some of those wonderfully skilled people on this blog can come up with a solution for us so we can easily make informed choices about where our Dollars go, to whom and for what. Thus, we will be able to make informed choices that reward those companies for doing what we want by buying what they sell, make and provide. Win win methinks

          2. Matt A. Myers

            The issue here is having reliable information. As soon as a platform exists that doesn’t have systems in place to verify information, etc. then it loses credibility as a whole. It’s tricky, especially since that kind of verification has a large time cost associated with it.

          3. Tilie

            A wiki company register could cover it , couldn’t it?

          4. Matt A. Myers


    4. Twain Twain

      Did Sheryl Sandberg and Megyn Kelly get that memo on “Feminism 3.0 has been outed as a scam…masculine is back”?Their video from 12m 20s onwards says Feminism 3.0 is alive and kicking:* http://youtu.be/x1giceB2Mfo…I’m not a feminist, misandrist, misogynist, whatever other label in the “men vs women” battle.Each individual has their own special skills and, regardless of whether we’re male / female / purple / polka-dotted, we can play to the strengths and values of those special skills.

      1. Dave Pinsen

        Scam or not, feminists didn’t make a lot of friends this year. A low point was when they made a guy who had just landed a robot on a comet cry over a shirt.

        1. Twain Twain

          Thanks, Dave. I wasn’t aware he’d gotten flak over his shirt.Instead of the feminists decrying how his shirt puts women off science, they could have focused on this: Fabiola Gianotti, the Italian physicist who announced the results of the Large Hadron Collider’s quest to find the Higgs-Boson, has been appointed the Director-General of CERN.* http://www.nature.com/news/…Gianotti is also an example of how an education in the Liberal Arts (Greek, Latin & Philosophy) can lead later to a career in STEM.

        2. Kirsten Lambertsen

          Yeah who gives a damn about how dehumanizing it was to all the women scientists he works with and all the aspiring young girl scientists who were watching that day.Maybe, as a brilliant scientist, we expected better of him. He took a great moment in human history and turned it into a T&A show. Oh, well played. Boo hoo for him.As a man, you’ve never been objectified and so you don’t get it.

          1. PhilipSugar

            Here is the thing. Would I have sent him home to change the second I saw that shirt. Yes. My employees wear some great shirts. Some of my favorites: “There are 10 types of people, those that understand binary and those that don’t”, “When I’m nodding my head, I’m pretending to be listening”, “I’m in my own world but at least they understand me here”I will not go into the ones I have sent home, but this doesn’t mean they are responsible for women not going into STEM. They are just dorks wearing shirts. Look at his tattoo’s and that is the person that made that shirt. (Although one I was going to send home and was rejected by the most senior female employee had some reference to TaTa’s but she was adamant he paid good money to Breast Cancer for that one and her mother died from that, and he would stay)Do I think that that shirt is the source of aspiring young girl scientists not wanting to go into STEM?Seriously? If that is the case I wonder what happens when they hit the “weed out” courses. Blame it on who??So yes, rip him, but don’t blame societal problems on him.

          2. Jordan Elpern-Waxman

            I had not heard about #shirtstorm before this, so I had to look it up. I was thinking, how could a shirt possibly be that bad? It was that bad.That said, the guy made what appeared to be a sincere, tearful apology. I guess the question now is, can we forgive him?

          3. Kirsten Lambertsen

            Yes. Yes we can. And I think a lot of people who called him out gave him credit for apologizing and recognizing his mistake. In fact, I think by many he’s viewed quite positively now.

          4. PhilipSugar

            Exactly correct.

          5. Dave Pinsen

            The inconsistency of radical feminism is striking. They demand women be allowed to serve in the toughest combat arms units in the US military and then complain that a shirt can scare women away from STEM.

          6. andyswan

            Awesome example

          7. Tilie

            Of course you would support this ! You make the assumption that radical femminism is 1 thing 1 voice . It is not. It is an a expression of the views of that 1 radical femminist . If it is indeed radical. (Me thinks the term radical is a form of disrespect and dissing on your part)

          8. Kirsten Lambertsen

            Do you think it seriously would have been such a big deal if it was an isolated incident? It’s not the one shirt the one time that has discouraged women from going into STEM.And it’s not just offensive t-shirts, in general. Do you seriously think that’s what is being said? That if the *t-shirts* just stop everything will be fine?

          9. PhilipSugar

            That is the whole point. When you worry about the small trivial stuff and make it a big deal you avoid the big problem.Like my favorite sales guy and sales gal would both say (remember our discussion on sales) “Like water off a ducks ass”Both were the same.Lets discuss the big problem not some stupid shirt. Remember I have a daughter, and she is my spitting image. (too bad for her)

          10. Donna Brewington White

            I appreciate your comments in this thread and balanced thinking overall. (Always glad when you show up.) But the details and the small stuff add up. It’s often where the rubber hits the road.

          11. PhilipSugar

            I appreciate your comments as well. I know that I am absolutely everything that is “establishment”: White, Male, Privileged, Ivy League, Connected.So I know that my viewpoint by definition is considered wrong. But when I see people vehemently complain about the small stuff I think that is the easy argument.We can say that guy is an a-hole, and here are the tough things we need to do to solve the problem. Not he is the problem.

          12. Tilie

            Your priviliege, maleness etc doesn’t make you, your opinions or your experiences wrong!!!!! You and your opinions and experience are as valid as mine, the guy in the t shirt or the 4 year old on the rubbish heaps of India Yes, he is not the problem . The problem is the lack of respect and validation that attitude has on those it is directed towards

          13. Tilie

            too true . Its the straw that breaks the camels back. All those slights build up wounding and scarring over all those little hits. Sometimes you have to tell it how it really is

          14. pointsnfigures

            Some people walk into a room with a chip on their shoulder. Some walk into the same room looking to be a trailblazer. Someone has to be first

          15. Dave Pinsen

            It’s not just men who thought the bullying of the scientist by radical feminists was unseemly. Plenty of women thought so too. See, for example, Charlotte Allen: http://www.latimes.com/opin…ShirtGate/ShirtStorm made her list of the top 10 feminist fiascos of 2014.

          16. Tilie

            Thankyou, It is nice to know that all men on this site aren’t so narrow minded

        3. pointsnfigures

          Yes, and the fake rape scandals on college campuses.

          1. Tilie

            What about all the abuse that isn’t reported because apes like you are the perpetrators, prosecutorrs, judges and jury Your comment was so obnoxious l almost let it go. But alas l was unable to let this drole pass by. What statistical value does the of the minute numbers of false claims by women give to your argument. Yes some people have lied about rape.But a lot more don’t report it because of fears and reprailsails by perpertrators and the court system.Get a life and stop playing the victim card of the poor oppresed male who was falsely accussed. Yess women are human, we f things up, we lie to cover our asses or, to get what we want . We are human beings just like you,. Grow up you poor defencelss being, awaken!!!! Please for mankinds sake WAKE THE F UP!!!!!!!!

          2. pointsnfigures

            So, thanks for the attack. Perhaps it’s you who ought to wake up. Perhaps you haven’t read the news lately, but the rape scandals that caused a firestorm at UVA are fake. Totally made up. The stripper case at Duke from years ago, made up. Is Bill Cosby a rapist, or not? No one has any credible evidence against him yet-so right now it’s all media and hearsay. Lena Dunham’s story about being raped, totally false. It looks like Alan Dershowitz was no where near Pedophile Island. It’s also unclear at this point if former President Bill Clinton was, but they do have 20 cell phone numbers for him there.When cases like that get big publicity, and turn out to be fake it hurts the women that really get raped. Instead of attacking me, you ought to be going after the reporters and people that helped orchestrate the fake rapes.I wasn’t playing the victim card. I don’t play it. But, plenty of people these days are ignoring the facts of issues that are plainly in front of their face and playing it—-for their own or some other benefit. Will be the first to admit, it can be very tricky and difficult for women to report rape. But, when women cry wolf to push an agenda or to get attention, it hurts the people that really need the help.http://www.thenewamerican.c

          3. Tilie

            My appolagies.Sorry l did launch into an attach and ran with it I do read the news yet the fake rape scandals haven’t made it on to Aus news. that l have seenre: Bill Crosby, I don’t know but l hope not, he is a very humourous and clever man, whos’ work l have enjoyed for decades. It does seem to be a building case log tho. Like you, l tire of main stream media.l would prefer it to go through the judical system before it is decided in the media without all the facts. In Aus once it is listed for court most often there is a gag order and it is court reports only. So things don’t get blown out as much l guess. Citing main stream media stories that blow out, is a bit of a contradiction to my way of thinking. Surely it is an eg. of the agenda setting they do. It is more sensational to report fake cases than the millions of real casesI agree it hurts those who are raped when people cry wolf. But your comment does hurt all the same. It belittled me, it seemed flipant and a typical himbo reaction. to the feminist rape statement. I wouldn’t waste my time on trying to change the “next big story” approach by main stream media, been there done that got no where. Chasing liars etc not worth my time.What is worth my time is reacting to comments like yours that stir a reaction in me, as l might learn something of an aposing view, l may just vent a bit and help the feminist cause and de- compress my own baggage.Sorry for the victim comment, perhaps it was more projection. I was in reaction to what still seems fairly much an argument used by mysoginists, (see Julia Gillard PM Mysoginist speech in Aus parliament 2014) Bringing up statistically weak cases as a comment doesn’t serve your argument well.Yes when people cry wolf they ruin it for themselves and those that follow. People have always cried wolf , for all sorts of reasons from humour to attention seeking. Bringing it up as an argument as to what is wrong with feminism belittles those who follow and suffer for not being able to report rapes. My suggestion is to be wary when making comments about circumstances you haven’t experienced yourself as you may insult or injure unknowingly and unintentionally.People only ever do anything if there is a pay off for them in my experience., Otherwise what is the point?Yes l agree that people these days and old days too l suspect, ignore the facts on issues to push their own agendas, It is a form of argument that isn’t very plausible in a debate, and noted as such.It is human nature to try and do ie bring in all the crap to win an argument ,if you are the competitive typeI am glad to see that we agree on crying wolf to push an agenda hurts the people who really need help. I would also like to add that it is perhaps even harder for males to report rape due to societal norms and fears around male identity and homosexuality

          4. Tilie

            re: the pedophile reports you mentioned, l tred warily here, it seems to me the more this is in the media , the better. It is well past time for this to come out and be spoken of, so victims can feel less isolated and learn more of what help is avaliable, as in most cases it is years later that it has damaging affects on victims

    5. Dave Pinsen

      Media push narrative regardless of facts.Absolutely, but 2014 also showed how the Internet lets those with facts push back. Think of the Ferguson police releasing the quickie mart surveillance video, or a Richard Bradley using his blog to blow holes in Rolling Stone’s UVA gang rape story.Edit: Another example: Chuck Johnson of GotNews.com calling b.s. immediately on North Korea being behind the Sony Hack.

    6. falicon

      Good stuff – when did you become @kidmercury !? Also – count me in if you get something together while your in NYC ( [email protected] )

    7. Matt Zagaja

      I generally consider myself a feminist. Sadly feminism, like many other movements, ends up being judged by their worst actors. There seems to be a segment of the movement that believes that by adopting the worst traits of successful men that feminism might be successful too. These individuals are confused and boy do they generate content for the Internet rage machine. I do not know why many movements develop code-words and language that end up functioning as being exclusionary but if I had to bet money I would say it’s mostly for retweets and page hits.I mostly care about the big issues though: equality for pay, workforce participation, education, etc. I think it’s awesome that I’ve met more women that want to learn to code this year than any other year. Does anyone have good resources where I should send people (post-college) interested in learning to code that is low cost in NYC/CT area?I was originally suggesting HackerSchool but lately came to realize that they generally take people with some experience. Many of these people are starting from square one. Already connected them with the usual online things like Codecdemy, Khan Academy, CS50x, etc. but I think many want to do it in a supportive group environment and have mentorship.

        1. Matt Zagaja

          Thanks Ana, I’ll pass this along as well :).

      1. Kirsten Lambertsen

        GirlDevelopIt is a good one for learning to code in your spare time.Also, Codecademy, of course! CodeSchool, Treehouse. These are good places to start and get a foundation, maybe pick a language to focus on.I also keep a subscription to Lynda.com ($25/mo) which has THE most extensive learning video library and can get one a _long_ way.So, just out of curiosity, are you up for naming one of these ‘bad actors’ of feminism by name? I honestly don’t know who you’re referencing.

        1. Matt Zagaja

          Thanks Kirsten, I will pass it along! I am not sure why some people enjoy inventing and pulling the pin out of new rhetorical hand grenades. Most recently saw many feminist friends posting a satire article about Aaron Sorkin saying some rather terrible things and appending outraged commentary because they didn’t know it was satire. I don’t think pieces like: http://reductress.com/post/… have good faith behind them or speak to our better angels.

        2. duh

          lena Dunham. UVA accuser. Duke lacrosse accuser

      2. Tilie

        Dear Matt, your attitude brings tears of joy . Thank you for reminding me that times they are a changing. Can’t help with your request

    8. Kirsten Lambertsen

      Aw right, I’ll bite. What does this mean?”Feminism 3.0 has been outed as a scam…masculine is back”We agree on the Sony scandal. The mouse that roared.

      1. andyswan

        The “everything is rape” rape culture 1 in 5 college females blah blah blah nonsense…. Lena…. UVA… “78 cents on the dollar pay gap”…. “he wore a shirt with sexy women on it forget his landing on a comet!” yada yada I’m happy to see 3rd wave Fem dismantled…. I don’t want my daughter growing up to think that “victim” is the pinnacle of female existence.

        1. PhilipSugar

          Did you see my Penn Fraternity. So many companies started there, I listed them once. One totally inappropriate picture and people want them banned. I don’t mind if people say you are an asshole and don’t share in my values. But when people say you need to not exist because you don’t agree with me, I don’t know how that is any different than conservatives hating on other groups.

          1. awaldstein

            Best line of last year was that you don’t have to be right to disagree.That puts virulent hate in the face of aggressive disagreement in balance for me.

          2. Tilie

            You are right hate is hate and there is little difference, Your Penn Frat Brothers got caught in a photo doing one totally inappropriate thing, it does require some enquirey if the photo was a one off or; the activity was just common occurrence

        2. Kirsten Lambertsen

          Well, of course I disagree with all that. And, I hate to disappoint you but the revolution is just getting started. I’m kinda surprised by your take on it.

          1. andyswan

            I’ll take the feminist revolution seriously once they get a man in charge. HT @theonionOn Wednesday, December 31, 2014, Disqus

          2. Tilie

            You have got to be kidding!!!!We are on the way and what will you do when women share the power?Why does feminism require a man to be in charge before you give it any value?. Who says one person or a man in charge should have the power? What is wrong with the collective approach or any of the many other structures avaliable to run feminism, business, countries or the universe.

          3. andyswan

            Yes it was a joke, that’s why I gave a hat tip to the onion’s popular article: http://www.theonion.com/art

          4. Tilie

            Ok now my ignorance is showing, thanks for the link to the article, having read it l get the joke. I am a newbie to this please forgive me for not understanding all the nuances

        3. Kirsten Lambertsen

          In the spirit of candor: I find your take on this scary, literally.I guess being a brilliant scientist buys you a pass to objectify your fellow human beings and make them feel unsafe.I guess speaking up makes one a victim.I guess I should be scared.

          1. andyswan

            If a shirt with fictional pretty girls on it makes you feel unsafe…then ya…be scared…guys that like pretty girls are EVERYWHERE.

          2. Kirsten Lambertsen

            So, like I said to someone else below, as a man it’s safe to say you’ve never been the subject of objectification. You simply don’t get it.

          3. andyswan

            You drastically underestimate the grabbing skills of your fellow woman.

          4. Tilie

            Ok l am on the hook line and sinker ! What do you mean by term “grabbing skills” You totally dished her experience as crap . Who made you Lord and Master to devalue her lived experience and my fellow sisterhood in one patronising objectifying statement? This kind of attitude is exactly what feminism is working to illuminate. I thought the neanderthols died out eons ago.

          5. andyswan

            She claimed that I had no idea what it was like to be objectified. This is insane. I get groped by women I don’t know ALL THE TIME in bars, clubs, etc. Of course that’s objectifying me….. who are you do devalue MY lived experience, sista?

          6. Tilie

            Not if you are asking and paying for it. What she said was that as a male you don’t get it because you are the member of the patriachial elite

          7. andyswan

            Love the assumption I’m “asking for it”….was it my shoes or my top? FFS you sound like everything you oppose.

          8. Tilie

            Feeling objectified are we? It wasn’t an assumption that you were ‘asking for it,’ It was a statement to the ? l possed ,” were you actually asking for it”. If you were, well great, you got what you wanted, if you weren’t ; Then perhaps it was your shoes or, your top or, the way you danced or smiled or’, or wore your hair or hat or, how you postured yourself as you did or didn’t respond to the cues of the women who ended up gropping you? What was your role in the gropping? If it happened you created it, what was that experience for , what did you learn? What were you really looking for, what cultural values stopped you getting what you wanted, or maybe you were objectified as a: himbo, neandethol ,egotist,body obsessed, image obsessed sports nut,bourbon swilling,typical patriachial, penis( driven, motivated brain) male dick head. Do l need to go on?ffs How do you know what l do or don’t appose? For the record, If it is a mutual agreement between all gropees and all are fully informed of all rights, responsiabilities, definitions and obligations, l have no problem with a full “grope on”My appolagies for confusing you, perhaps it is your turn to try not to make assumptions about me, I don’t know myself, what l appose until l do , same as l don’t know what l support until l do. Now hang in there, because my opinion is not set in concrete , with further understanding ,information and knowledge, l may just change my opinion. Someone may present a well formed argument that swings me to the other side or another point of view. So how can l possibly sound like everything l appose. I just have a different view and a different approach to you .Neither is right or wrong it is is just opinion. Me thinks we would actually agree and have more similar views than we differ on . What do you think or feel about that?

          9. andyswan

            We have way more in common than you want to admit! Tillie fo life

          10. Tilie

            he he he!!!!!

          11. sachmo

            And you’ve probably never been shot down by a member of the opposite sex in a public location. There are 2 sides to every coin.

          12. Anne Libby

            OMGoodness, this thread. Ugh!Happy New Year.

          13. Dan

            Romance novels are 45% of the North American book market and the verbal porn of Romance Novels “objectifies” men in the same way visual porn “objectifies” women; many movies and TV shows do the same. Stop telling lies about how women are victims.

          14. Tilie

            but what guys everywhere think is pretty differs everywhere. The way those guys respect and treat those girls is what makes it scary or not, That is why feminism isn’t dead, Until patriachial society values all women not just the so called pretty ones, feminism will still still be marching on, educating and changing outdated values, modalities and systems’

          15. andyswan

            I’m not anti-feminism at all (that females should be respected and given equal opportunity)… that’s how I live my lifeI’m very anti the 3rd wave feminism, with it’s attempt to destroy real gender differences, insistence on creating a victim-first mentality among women (“he raped me with his eyes!), and general anti-male, anti-masculine foundation.

          16. Tilie

            You may say that you are not anti- feminism but your argument has most definately been anti -feminist. Re 3rd wave feminism (whatever you conceive that to be ) it may disturb you to know that male and female traits are on a spectreme, They are not black and white neat little boxes based on you penis or vagina anymore, We have evolved our understanding of humanity to be inclusive of all people and their gender identity.Re Victim 1st mentality, ..Perhaps those people have been raped assulted and or abbused.(I am sure someone can quote you on the high percentage of women who are victims of such attrociaties at the hands of males esp ones they love). Perhaps their fear is based on experience or PTSD symptom. You yourself commented on being sexually objectified by women so why can’t you reciptricate compassion for those who experience it.?Re general anti male and anti masculine foundation You are objectioning to the feelings of oppression that those attitudes make you feel. That is what” those” people are argueing. They are providing you with a taste the experience of oppression and it doesn’t feel good does it? That is what the main feminist argument is.Perhaps if you dropped your masks, assumed identities, ego, conditioning and concentrated on giving all people (NB No gender differentation here) the respect and equal opportunity you profess to live by (yet don’t clearly express) you may just discover your heart and be a loving positive role model to your daughter

          17. sachmo

            I think it’s completely ridiculous that a bunch of people hounded a guy for wearing a shirt with fictional anime characters. There is 0 evidence that in normal life Matt Taylor is any way “unsafe” or chauvinist to his coworkers. I agree with Andy, this militant feminism crap needs to go.

          18. PrometheeFeu

            I’m not a big fan of andy’s sweeping statements. But it is worth wondering whether sexualized depictions of women are fundamentally problematic or whether we make them so by saying they are.Nowadays, it has been repeated ad nauseam that sexualized depictions of women are sexist. This means that anybody wearing or presenting such a depiction is (intentionally or not) describing themself as sexist. (which obviously leads to women feeling unsafe around that person)But if this link between sexualized depictions and sexism had not been made, presentation of such depiction would not be seen as such a strong signal of sexism. And so women might not be as uncomfortable in that environment. (I’m not sure. But I think it begs the question.)

        4. Twain Twain

          Respectfully, Andy, without 3rd, 4th, 5th and however many waves it takes of people standing up, speaking out and changing the systems to benefit men and women alike…Your daughter will grow up to BE a victim.* She’ll grow up to be a victim of constantly closed doors in her career and less pay when all she wants is to do her best work and be valued on a par for that commitment and her intelligence.* She’ll grow up to be the victim to guys not respecting her and being ego jerks when she refuses them something (e.g., a date / to be the verbal dartboard for their crude remarks about how she looks rather than her character and intelligence / to be silent and weak and play dumb because she’s pretty sure that her Mom and Dad taught her to be strong, secure and articulate).* She’ll grow up to be a victim when her company doesn’t provide crêches and childcare provisions that allow her to stay at work, making use of the education that you and your wife are encouraging her towards and having the opportunities she should have.* She’ll be a victim when the frustrations eat away at her confidence and there’s nothing she can do about it because “that’s just the way the system is and has always been”.You are not always going to be in those situations to hear her out, experience what she’s going through and to protect your daughter, Andy.We should all be thankful there are men and women out there DOING SOMETHING POSITIVE so that your daughter and her friends don’t get victimized and disadvantaged by the system.

          1. Tilie

            Once again thoughtfully , logically, intelligently argued and written

          2. Twain Twain

            Thanks, Tilie.One of the issues with feminism, misogyny, misandry and “battle of the sexes” is that they’ve become so irrationally charged both genders have lost sight of an important fact.How fathers (men) think and DO, positively, contributes to the makings and success of their sons and daughters as much as how mothers (women) think and DO, positively.The issue has become a tug o’ war (zero sum game) where both sides feel they need to yank the ropes so that their gender wins.Male and female relationships produce a lot more dynamic energy when we play Double Dutch instead of tug o’war:* https://www.youtube.com/wat

          3. Tilie

            Nd it creates a whole lot more fun , joy, intimacy and connectedness and accetance.

        5. Twain Twain

          Let’s suppose the “78 cents on the dollar pay gap” argument is dismantled as you’d like. Let’s see how that plays out……(1.) Your wife gets 22 cents less in every $. That’s 22 cents less she could be spending / saving towards your kids’ educations and other household needs.(2.) Your daughter gets 22 cents less in every $ now as a child because her Mom is being denied it AND she’ll get 22 cents less when she too is an adult and mother — because remember people like you didn’t believe in Feminism 3.0 and wanted it dismantled so no one was there to fight for equal pay for this or your daughter’s generation.That’s 22 cents less in the $ that your daughter has lost for your grandchildren’s education, Andy.Now, imagine if your daughter is unlucky and her marriage doesn’t work out. That 22 cents in the $ would have been really helpful to enable her to be financially independent and to leave the marriage if it had irretrievably broken down.It’s guys like you who can change the system that currently makes a victim of your daughter, Andy.

          1. andyswan

            The 22 cent pay gap doesn’t exist. It’s pure myth based on the occupations people CHOOSE.

          2. Twain Twain

            Women’s career choices don’t explain the gender pay gap:* http://www.businessweek.com…The gender pay gap exists in tech:* http://fortune.com/2014/11/…The gender pay gap exists in banking:* http://money.cnn.com/2014/1…The comparisons are on a like-for-like basis. The average female analyst earns £43,701 ($68,300) per year, while the average male analyst earns £58,905 ($92,100).It’s not a myth and your daughter will feel the full brunt of the disadvantages of her gender if the “78 cents on the dollar pay gap” argument is dismantled as you’d like.

          3. andyswan

            Then why do companies hire men at all?

          4. Twain Twain

            Companies should hire men AND women and, if they’re doing similar roles, they should earn the same plus or minus a 2% difference rather than the current average 22% difference.Companies hire men because of historical reasons. They were the ones who built pyramids, dams and the engines of the Industrial Revolution as well as being the ones who got an education.Up until the recent century, work required physical rather than mental and collaborative, diverse strengths.Our generation and your daughter’s is in a different situation from the times when women didn’t get an education and didn’t go out to work. The systems haven’t adapted accordingly. Modern work is about mental and collaborative, diverse strengths which suits both genders.More and more women are graduating and joining the workforce and wanting to progress in challenging, well-paid roles rather than be secretarial support or be stay-at-home.Just as men get satisfaction, status and earnings from their work so too do women.After all, both genders are HUMAN. We both feel great when we know we’ve done a good day’s work and earned our dues for that work.

          5. andyswan

            I’m about profit…and you’re telling me I can get the same quality work for 22% less simply by hiring only women? And companies with 5% profit margins aren’t doing this left and right?You know why?Because the 22% off number is bullshit.

          6. Twain Twain

            What are your sources for “the 22% off number is bullshit”?The links provided above are from recruiters in the technology and banking sectors and they point to the gender pay gaps.Maybe your mode of thinking is why male managers hire women who can produce the same quality of work at a lower cost.They earn more profit from women — which means that women do have a POSITIVE IMPACT on the bottom lines.:*).

          7. Twain Twain

            Thanks. And then there is research like this:Kinder Morgan Inc. CFO Kimberly Dang, 43, has been in the job since 2005. Last year she got compensation of $1.72 million. Her Houston-based energy company had sales of $10 billion last year. By comparison, the average compensation of CFOs at five similar companies with sales ranging from $5 billion to $17 billion was $2.3 million. * http://www.bloomberg.com/ne…* http://www.nytimes.com/2014

          8. andyswan

            That’s research? Well Steve Jobs made $1 his last year so I guess that means men everywhere are getting hosed.

          9. Twain Twain

            Haha, Andy, don’t let Claudia Goldin, the Harvard University labor economist who provided the research for that NYT article, hear you ask if that’s research.Women would be fine with getting $1 like Steve Jobs if they were also getting lots of Apple shares that they can dispose of and monetize whenever they choose plus full company benefits.

          10. Twain Twain

            I do get your point that men get hosed in pay too.An engineer at Juniper Networks earns an average of $160K whilst one at Cisco earns $109K. That’s a 32% difference.So the take-away is: Go work where the salary, benefits and satisfaction levels fit your individual sense of what your work is worth.Regardless of what gender you are.

          11. Tilie

            Or rip of the tax system and fail in their civic responsiability to pay tax with book work (probably methodically done by underpaid women) that shows they had no real income, A tax trick for ” the boys in the Know” or maybe he gave it all away because he couldn’t use it anymore Why does Steve Jobs making $1 in his last year have anything to do with meaning” men every where are getting hosed”?

          12. andyswan

            He cited one CEO making “low” pay as evidence of discrimination against women. I cited one CEO making even lower pay. Turnabout is fair play. Your understanding of the tax system is childish.

          13. Tilie

            How do you know what my understanding of tax the system is. You are making assumptions based on very little evidence,(what a surprise!) The turnabout is NOT fair play ! Twain Twain has given ample crediable evidence that It indeed true that pay discrimination does exist for women. What a week propoisition to offer 1 unjustified eg as “evidence” only is not even statistically accurate

          14. Tilie

            oops eg of what. Sprouting out like you do only shows your ignorance and inability to reason with any real affect. Your one eg as” evidence” is not statistically valid in any way. How much further do you want to go down this rabbit hole of ignorance and egotism before you read, and understand all the brilliant eg of why you argumentis so painfully and heartbreakingly off.

          15. Tilie

            Woow you are an amazing source

          16. Tilie

            Yes! elegantly and equivically l would suggest

          17. Tilie


          18. Mike O'Horo

            It seems the unstated assumption in much of this heated exchange about inequality is “conscious bias.” That race, age and gender biases exist is too widely documented for debate. What we’re just beginning to understand is that much of it is unconscious rather than deliberate. Some respondents reject the idea that men (consciously) underpay women relative to men. I doubt that they do it consciously, but they do it.For example, it was discovered that women were statistically underrepresented in symphony orchestras. Unlike with some of the specious STEM arguments, nobody argues that women are less interested in music. Every one of the audition judges recoiled at the idea that their choices were based on anything except musical acumen and performance. Yet, when they began holding auditions with the performer behind a curtain or screen, masking their gender, the ratios became representative of the population as a whole.The same is true of experiments in which identical resumes are submitted, the only difference being whether or not the applicant’s first name is a stereotypically white-sounding name, e.g., Brendan, or a stereotypically black-sounding name, e.g., Jamal. The former got 50% more interview invitations than did the latter.For more examples, an article in yesterday’s NYT is instructive. It’s focused on racial bias, but makes the broader point. http://www.nytimes.com/2015

          19. Twain Twain

            Thanks for sharing that link, Mike.Please see our exchange on biases on this AVC post:* http://avc.com/2015/01/aski…Biases inform all our systems. Yet Probability and percentages aren’t adequate tools to measure or understand them.

          20. Tilie

            Thanks a great link and food for thought for all of us ” is some unconcious thought or belief running m” i

          21. Tilie

            Beautifully said

    9. awaldstein

      If you are downtown and want to grab a glass of [email protected]

    10. ShanaC

      I would love to meet up, but I disagree that feminism 3.0 is a scam – I think there are questions about what masculine means which is why it is back

      1. Tilie

        l agree and l think these questions leave definitions and roles flying in the wind. This can make for confusion and defenciveness on all sides

    11. ShanaC

      also shana dot carp at gmail

    12. Tilie

      Ooh my goodness! l hope you are taking the piss. Perhaps it is a cultural thing. but to this silver head Aussie girl the bourbon has peaked in your system and you could do with viewing a couple of these comments from a different pespective

    13. Rob

      Nothing like a bunch of annoying feminists to derail a constructive and smart discussion with their retarded arguments.

    14. Twain Twain

      Andy — You care about the opportunities for your daughter and so does Brian Krzanich, Intel’s CEO. At CES yesterday, Intel announced it’s investing $300 million towards increasing inclusion and equal opportunity in technology.“I have two daughters of my own coming up on college age,” he said. “I want them to have a world that’s got equal opportunity for them.”* http://www.nytimes.com/2015…Every parent (fathers and mothers alike) have a choice. Either we do something that makes positive changes in the world for the next generation or we add to the negatives that hold the next generation back and make it into self-defeating “battle of the sexes” nonsense.It is nonsense because it pitches men against women when the best things we create involve BOTH genders working in union — how we make babies, how Babbage & Ada Lovelace built the first computing machine, how Hedy Lamar & George Antheil invented wi-fi, how Adele Goldberg and Alan Kay invented smalltalk that led to Objective-C which runs all Apple products.Men and women worked together to map the Universe (http://www.smithsonianmag.c… and in Alan Turing’s breakthroughs in AI (http://www.bletchleyparkres… and in NASA being able to land Apollo on the Moon and return safely (https://medium.com/@verne/m….Krzanich decided to lead by example as a man, a father and a leader. He put $300 million of Intel’s money towards changing the systems for the better for everyone.And now, hopefully, the rest of the tech industry will follow his lead because as he states clearly, “It’s time to step up and do more. It’s not good enough to say we value diversity. This isn’t just good business. This is the right thing to do. When we all come together and commit, we can make the impossible possible.”@disqus_zJF8uBw189:disqus @annelibby:disqus @ShanaC:disqus @donnawhite:disqus @mikeohoro2:disqus @philipsugar:disqus @daveinhackensack:disqus @sachmo:disqus @PrometheeFeu:disqus@MsPseudolus:disqus

      1. andyswan

        I have no problem with any of that

        1. Tilie

          so we are on the same page then?

  4. Nicholas Bagg

    Looking forward to the 2015 list.

  5. Jordan Thaeler

    11/ VC becomes growth equity

    1. fredwilson

      Ah yes. As if VC mattered very much

      1. Matt A. Myers

        Well, VCs determine what kind of people get access to money and therefore what ideas get a better chance at surviving and getting out into society. I’d say that’s quite a responsibility. This in part is why the idea of Social Capital exists because it may not have the same kind of returns or possibility, at least not purely financial. I don’t agree that things that are generally good for the masses can’t be highly profitable though with the internet, networks, economies of scale, viral scaling, etc..

        1. fredwilson

          see 4/

          1. Jordan Thaeler

            Still a funding gap. You can crowdfund/use angels for < $2M, but bigger improvements won’t get built. VC was *supposed* to provide capital for major improvements. In true venture absence, money must come from strategics/corporate spinouts, so you’re back in the 70’s. In a (perhaps clever) move, VCs require solvency post-angel. Obviously these entities are indefensible and need capital to build a moat, thus perpetuating the need of VC growth capital. Keith Teare wrote something astute about this a year ago.

      2. Donna Brewington White

        Well if capital was the only thing VCs had to offer…

  6. Zico

    I didn’t understand #8 much…. without file extension… how files will be shared? 🙂

    1. William Mougayar

      In the cloud via a link.

      1. Zico

        Ah ok! Meant shared with cloud hosted links… 🙂

  7. Donna Brewington White

    I could spend a long time studying this list. But eager to see what you see coming — that instead will be the list to absorb. Can’t wait.Glad to see you call out the “sharing economy” — but is this replaced merely by the “rental economy”? Even though I don’t think collaborative consumption fully nails it, this phenomenon is huge and seems much broader than just “rental”Would be interesting to explore the connection between #3 and #4.

    1. Girish Mehta

      Never liked the ‘sharing economy’ descriptor. Charlie had called out the issues with that descriptor in a excellent comment here a little while back.Agree that ‘rental market’ is possibly inadequate though…rental markets have existed for a very long time. Certainly this is also about renting, but risks being subsumed within the idea of “rental” that we know and has existed for ages.The way I’d frame it from the demand side is about “Ownership” relative to “Experience & Access”. Viz…a move to “experience & access” rather than “own” (driven by better marginal cost economics for both the demand side and supply side). Not a discrete shift by any means, but a small movement along the continuum. Thanks.

      1. Donna Brewington White

        Will have to track down Charlie’s comment.Appreciate your thoughts on this.

  8. John Lowery

    Wow Fred – nothing about Bitcoin? Seems to be that the Mt Gox disaster was a pretty major moment (perhaps a limiter vs a defining moment, but a major moment nonetheless).

    1. fredwilson

      Yeah. I answered that question below. 2014 was a bad year for bitcoin. I was focusing on the winners not the losers. Good critique

      1. John Lowery

        Ironically I meant it as much as a defense as a critique – still a believer, so still like to see it in the discussion!

      2. William Mougayar

        Even when someone loses, others win by learning and observing.

      3. falicon

        I disagree – it was a stabilizing year for BitCoin in my book…the hype finally died down a bit and now the *real* work and innovation can/has started.I went into 2014 down on BitCoin…I’m ending 2014 *very* excited about it. Not because I think it’s the ‘next internet’ but because I believe it fills a major hole in the existing internet (distributed trust and *real* micro-transaction capabilities).

        1. fredwilson

          i agree with you

        2. Tilie

          me too

  9. awaldstein

    11/logistic are the new human platform.Amazon order/delivery in one hour in NY!. Impossible made normal.Uber wiring together people to drive people. Wiring behaviors to one.This is a building block that will change retail/consumption/return/perishable goods pipelines.As a builder of things this is the sharpest tool in the tool belt.

    1. fredwilson

      Yeah. Probably related to the rental economy. But good point.

    2. John Revay

      Vaguely remember ( although I was not able to find quickly this AM) a UPS commercial on Logistics ….I thought it was a takeoff on the Graduate movie ….comparing “Plastics” to “Logistics”

      1. awaldstein

        Truth be told, that while UPS and Fed Ex pioneered this, Fed Ex especially is a nightmare acting like cable companies and telephone companies of old with no sense of responsibility.I think of Amazon, Uber, even Apple when I think of where logistics becomes a service to the customer.

    3. bzzl

      what about fear and greed? look at what happened to the cable cars. now the cable cars are trains (at least in Singapore). stuck in the cycle – generation one builds something, generation two exploits it, generation three destroys it, then generation one starts over again…

    4. laurie kalmanson

      kozmo is dead. long live kozmo.

      1. Kirsten Lambertsen


        1. laurie kalmanson


          1. Kirsten Lambertsen

            Those were the days. It all seems like a dream now 🙂

    5. LE

      I wonder to what extent,in addition to all the other reasons amazon is doing that, if the purpose is to create some kind of feedback loop similar to slot machines and immediate reinforcement of impulse buying. (The latest slots are now timed to get people to put more quarters in for hours at a time and create more addiction).For example when I get bargains on meh.com I don’t get them for maybe a week, sometimes longer. Often I’ve typically forgotten even what I ordered. But when I get something on Amazon I get it usually the next day. So this is getting closer to when you walk into a store and buy on impulse.I don’t think (if this works) it will stop with the initial offerings. Think about it. They can put in high margin impulse products for 1 hour delivery you don’t even have to walk though a store.By the way you might find this interesting to watch, features all types of alcohol I’m sure you know most of this already (I didn’t):http://www.smithsonianchann…What a civilization imbibes can reveal a lot about who they are and the world that they live in. Those who built the pyramids preferred beer, and ancient Rome loved its wine, but what’s the preferred alcoholic beverage in the US and what does it say about America? Join food writer Josh Ozersky on an illuminating journey as he makes moonshine, meets a microbrewery’s chemist, visits an award-winning vineyard and samples the infinite possibilities of the cocktail bar, all in the name of science.

      1. awaldstein

        Amazon is about ease of use, simple, one click buying for catalog items.To me not about impulse about making it easier.Just ran out of printer cartridges. Was easier and cost effective to simply have same day rather than run around and find and buy them.

    6. robertdesideri

      Internet’s been 100% about logistics since day one.From brochureware and email to pr0n, online banking, shopping / auction and music to twitter, adtech, cloudstuffing, F&F maintenance and bitcoin / blockchain.Mobile’s unshackling merely further greased logistics -BFD.Logistics improvements continue to weed the brittle. Nothing’s changed. Bettering logistics generally rewards bottom lines and investors.I’d expect 2015 to bring more of the same.

      1. awaldstein

        Really well said and true.Not what i’m saying.Adding human capital to the logistical supply chain is very recent and not the same as adding pick and ship capabilities through the web that connects orders to shipping.Much more complex.

        1. robertdesideri

          human capital has always been an aspect, from slavery to user-provide content

    7. Robert Metcalf

      Impossible made normal, indeed.This was also the year that USPS threatened ending Saturday mail deliveries and within months was doing deliveries for Amazon on Sundays. Pretty big swing of fortune.I’ve heard USPS employees complain that they have an extra day to work. Guess they forgot that they were about to lose one!

      1. awaldstein

        Didn’t know the USPS story.The more we become an urban culture, the more it becomes more ecological and economic for people to live in cities, the more logistics as part of the supply chain become key.Just great stuff is happening.

  10. Anne Libby

    the “sharing economy” was outed as the “rental economy.” nobody is sharing anything. people are making money, plain and simple.While this may have happened, I’m not sure anyone in tech has said it so bluntly and so publicly. Refreshing.Wish I could hang out today and discuss…family calls. Happy New Year all!

    1. Dave Pinsen

      Maybe no one in tech, but this blogger was exactly one year early to the party: http://isteve.blogspot.com/

      1. bzzl

        hadn’t seen that one, thanks for sharing! now I’m going to check out ‘Slave’ to see if someone there can clean my airbnb toilet bowl…maybe this will be on Fred’s 2015 list: not having to use money anymore

      2. PhilipSugar

        Didn’t we have a discussion here about six months ago. Where we were saying “sharing” really meant I am too broke to afford the asset that I have, and I will do anything I can including breaking laws and not valuing my time or safety to keep it. Obviously hyperbole but so is sharing.

        1. LE

          There was a totally biased article in the NYT with some part about Airbnb over the weekend or in the past week. It contained this gem from a property management company:http://www.nytimes.com/2014…Making Airbnb go away might not be so easy. A recent Quinnipiac poll found that 56 percent of the responders thought New Yorkers should be allowed to rent rooms out to strangers. “We don’t want to turn into hotels, but at the same time people want to rent out their apartments sometimes,” said Paul R. Gottsegen, the president of Halstead Management Company, which manages 250 residential properties in the city.Note the “might not be easy” based on a single poll. Also note the management company that would clearly want airbnb. Why? Because if people can rent out their unit on Airbnb then they can pay more rent. And if they can pay more rent then the mgmt company gets a cut of that, the vig.And this, what a load of shit:Nevertheless, as New Yorkers grow accustomed to a sharing economy, buildings might ultimately have to embrace it.“Airbnb is here to stay,” Mr. Gottsegen said. “Instead of fighting it, we should wrap our arms around it and make it better.”Note the “game over” on this. Like it’s a done deal, this stuff is here and just learn to accept it. To bad if you are in the same building and don’t want transients! The hell with you! People need help with their 4k a month rent in NYC.This is exactly how battles are lost. Assuming the ship has sailed.

          1. PhilipSugar

            I do not understand how neighbors don’t revolt.

          2. LE

            In a typical condo building (not a coop I’m guessing it’s already a non starter) there are owners that live there and there are people that rent out their units. So in theory the ones who rent out would be fine because they can get higher rent (which is the point of the Halstead guy). Now I have a unit in a condo that I rent out (at the Jersey shore) and I specifically put in that it can’t be rented out right on the lease and mentioned airbnb by name. In big letters. The building wouldn’t allow it anyway and even if they did I wouldn’t want it even if it put more money in my pocket (which is contrary to how I admit that I am about other things). Because it’s totally a “I feel your pain” kind of thing to me. Home is the castle quiet enjoyment and all of that. Can’t pay the rent? Borrow it off a relative don’t create problems for your neighbors.In some shore buildings you can rent out for even a week. I would never think of buying in a building like that (the one I rent in now I’ve owned since the early 90’s and I only rented it the first time this year (what a mistake that has been, bad tenant “we have a complaint that he’s drinking in the hot tub at the pool” and so on..).In theory, from building resale, being able to rent out would increase the investor participation and might drive up sale prices. I can see that being an upside as long as you don’t live in the building.Some people actually don’t mind (oddly enough to me and maybe you) the transients. Look some people like to see and make friends with strangers. Not me.So I guess the question is what is the makeup of the building is it primarily investors or people that live there? And what is the age. Obviously it seems that younger people wouldn’t care and maybe really older lonely people would want a constant stream of new faces to brighten their day. And so on. It all depends. I can tell you that if I lived in one of those buildings I would spend every waking hour blocking that type of thing and spearhead the effort. Now way would I let something like that happen.

          3. Anne Libby

            Our management company tiptoed around it, and yet did handle it. That said, I’ve read that people are putting faux addresses on postings to get around that.

          4. ErikSchwartz

            It’s going to be interesting to see how this intersects with rent stabilization laws in NYC.

          5. ShanaC

            rents are already too high in nyc.

          6. CJ

            Yes, yes it is.

          7. Salt Shaker

            A non-starter, IMO. Rent stab tenants won’t have the legal right and I can’t imagine a rent stab landlord, who generally is dealing with repressed rent rolls to begin with, being comfortable w/ a tenant making a buck off of their back. I say this as a NYC rent stab tenant and a rent stab landlord, both of which I was for many years.

          8. PrometheeFeu

            Well, if NYC laws allow a bump in rent when the tenant leaves and you can use AirBnB to kick out the tenant (breaking the lease) they are going to love it.

        2. JamesHRH


      3. Anne Libby

        “Chim-chimery,” hah! Happy New Year, Dave.

        1. Dave Pinsen

          You too, Anne.

    2. Matt A. Myers

      People are incentivized with money in a capitalistic society because without it you die.Unless you are born into a family who lives and survives purely in nature, which means living in some place where they’re not taxing you an exorbitant amount – pulling you into the money system whether you want to be or not; essentially exiled from all modernities.

    3. laurie kalmanson

      wordrelated: http://www.newyorker.com/hu…I was shooting heroin and reading “The Fountainhead” in the front seat of my privately owned police cruiser when a call came in. I put a quarter in the radio to activate it. It was the chief.“Bad news, detective. We got a situation.”“What? Is the mayor trying to ban trans fats again?”“Worse. Somebody just stole four hundred and forty-seven million dollars’ worth of bitcoins.”The heroin needle practically fell out of my arm. “What kind of monster would do something like that? Bitcoins are the ultimate currency: virtual, anonymous, stateless. They represent true economic freedom, not subject to arbitrary manipulation by any government. Do we have any leads?”

      1. fredwilson

        fucking awesome

      2. Anne Libby


      3. Ernest Oppetit

        Hahaha“Home Depot™ Presents the Police!®”Brilliant.

        1. Dowasobod

          yes,,,keep it up,,and +1 for you and me 2

      4. Tilie


      5. Anonymous

        This had me in stitches! THANK YOU BASED LAURIE KALMANSON

    4. Richard

      It’s the (marginal costs of providing service < marginal revenue of providing service & marginal cost of obtaining service < current costs of obtaining service) economy.

    5. PhilipSugar

      Here is the money line from that quote: “technology has made renting things (even in real time) as simple as it made buying things a decade ago”

      1. Anne Libby

        +1The real sharing economy? The subway. Highways. Public schools. Public safety.

    6. thor800

      besides couchsurfer

    7. Liberal_Garbage

      The smart ones bought so the liberals can “share”/rent

      1. Seth Miller

        haha sure is

  11. Joe

    Happy new year Fred! You forgot to mention that a lot of great sleeping-giant start ups were created in 2014, including one my team and I are working on called ACV Auctions. Let’s make 2015 a big year.

    1. fredwilson

      Yes of course. Aa toast to all of them!!!!

    2. Supratim Dasgupta

      Am curious. Which ones are these?

      1. Joe Neiman

        time will tell

        1. Supratim Dasgupta

          Cmon!!!! ;-)ACV is good idea. will it be always wholesale only or ‘time will tell’ 😉

          1. Joe Neiman

            Ha, I’ve been in the auto dealer industry for 15 years. There are 20mm wholesale B2B transactions annually all between well known, established dealers. Consumers are not comfortable making vehicle purchases the way dealers are. Average retail customer buys one car every three years. Average used car dealer buys 250 cars per year. Average revenue per transaction is $600+ for physical auctions. ACV will help both the buying and selling dealer, and indirectly, the consumer will benefit tremendously by obtaining a new level of transparency to the trade-in process, which has always been an area of distrust.

          2. Supratim Dasgupta

            Joe. I see your point. Good Business Model and good to see a startup talking of of making some real money per transaction.One point I did not understand is how does the consumer benefit indirectly and how this adds transparency to the trade in process.

          3. Joe Neiman

            Consumers have been conditioned to never believe that the trade value they are offered by the dealership is fair. Surprising to most, dealer groups try to run their wholesale operation at a $0. It is not a profit center. By using ACV, a dealer can show the customer what they can resell the trade for and validate the value. Therefore providing transparency to an otherwise mysterious process.

          4. Supratim Dasgupta

            I see. Even I thought that dealers make a lot of money by detailing the cars and putting them on lots after paying chump change to customer. Good luck Joe with ACV!

          5. Joe

            On cars they plan to keep, yes they try to hold some profit margin. On cars that they don’t want, they try to break out even at $0 net.

  12. Semil Shah

    Excellent post.

  13. Matt A. Myers

    Seems like a good overview – with a touch of bias in there.

    1. fredwilson

      always biased. always.

  14. Twain Twain

    Uber über alles and apparently Google had a bad 2014 because the other big techcos and the EU ganged up on them:* http://uk.businessinsider.c…The media got into AI & Deep Learning (as a follow-on from the “Big Data” theme) and iPhone 6 beat sales expectations:* http://techcrunch.com/2014/

    1. ShanaC

      I think neural networks are going to be big. (specifically related to Deep learning)But hey, I heard about those things early 🙂

  15. Ana Milicevic

    Another long-term trend that became more apparent in 2014 was diversification of location and emergence of many regional hubs of innovation. 20+ years ago you had to physically show up at a desk somewhere (most likely in the Valley if you were working in technology). 10+ years ago we added New York, Boston, Chicago and a few others to that list. Today it’s London, Berlin, Santiago, Chiang Mai, Capetown, Toronto, Budapest and hundreds of other places and this gets me incredibly excited. Localized innovation is going to be an important component of connecting the unconnected world. If mobile is democratizing access to technology and lowering the price and complexity bar, then it will have a similar effect on innovation too.

    1. fredwilson


    2. Vasudev Ram

      >10+ years ago we added New York, Boston, Chicago and a few others to that list. Today it’s London, Berlin, Santiago, Chiang Mai, Capetown, Toronto, Budapest and hundreds of other places and this gets me incredibly excited.Add Bangalore, Pune and a few other places to that list.>Localized innovation is going to be an important component of connecting the unconnected world.Yes. I don’t just mean companies in those places making startup products for principals in the US or Europe. Some of them are making products/sites for local use.

    3. ShanaC

      do you think regional hubs will become specialized for certain activities?

      1. pointsnfigures

        You dance with who brung ya In Chicago we have diverse industries and tech is working inside them

      2. Ana Milicevic

        Perhaps to some extent – especially in places where there’s a large existing stable industry that can be enhanced (e.g. pharma presence in South-East Europe can serve as a catalyst for medical innovation). But innovation tends to be infectious so I doubt it will stay specialized too long.

        1. Mike Bestvina

          Oil&Gas/Healthcare in HoustonAerospace/Defense in DC/SeattleFinance in NYC/ChicagoThe list goes on….

    4. pointsnfigures

      Co-working independent working correlated to that

    5. Johann Q

      Certainly hope so – because I’m not sure I would want to live in the Valley, but still would like to work in tech…

    6. Pavel Konoplenko

      Add 3D printing to the mix and you really allow localized innovation to flourish

      1. Ana Milicevic

        Yes! I’m really interested in how 3D printing can disrupt distribution chains and allow for efficient local production. Have you come across any good examples outside of the US?

    7. Donna Brewington White

      Really good addition. (Just found this screen open from a couple days ago. Never hit “post.”) Happy New Year, Ana!

  16. Tom Deierlein

    Nice wrap up

  17. TeddyBeingTeddy

    This was the best article I read in 2014.

  18. bzzl

    if we could only predict the future….my 17 year old son recently declared he loathes facebook, dislikes being ‘online’ at all, and he no longer wants to carry his mobile phone.

  19. Christopher Burnett

    Great post! Happy New Year!

  20. Christopher Burnett

    I would only add something significant happened in the music industry too. A major shift has taken place in consumer activity where both, live performance attendance and recorded music consumption are concerned. Spotify, YouTube, etc. won big over iTunes and Amazon Music in general.

    1. Ana Milicevic

      Yes, but I’d also attribute that to the rental economy. The perception of ownership (and the value of owning things) is changing and affecting many industries. Experiences (e.g. concerts) trump owning an album. Experience of driving for a getaway weekend trumps owning a car full time, etc.

      1. Christopher Burnett

        Yes. Agree. Advancements in technology in just the last 10 years alone allows music listeners the luxury of bandwidth for streaming music and gigs of cloud storage. New iMacs don’t have CD/DVD drives, etc. Most musicians manufacture very few CDs these days, and when they do, an on demand jobber like Kunaki works fine for most.

  21. John Revay

    Re: # 8 getting rid of files ( & the file system) – I recall this was something I heard jobs talk a lot about over time. http://youtu.be/xES5-qDv-4Q

  22. Jan Schultink

    I think “messaging” always has been “messaging”, briefly we used “social media” tools for it.”Social media” less messaging is the distraction tool of our time. We used to hang out in the village cafe, spend hours in front of a TV, and now we can sneakily wander off during work/school as well on our mobile devices! There will always be a huge market for distraction 🙂

  23. vruz

    Oh another one with more extreme right wing disinformation.TIME Magazine: “Growing evidence suggests it was not North Korea.”http://time.com/3649394/son…Heppy alternate reality.

  24. Michael Ferrari

    Thanks for taking the time and energy to write your blog each day Fred. Happy New Year.

  25. Gil Blumenreld

    I would add NO 11:Native ads are killing the web as we know it.As more and more “recommendations” are pretty much clickbaits, the recommendation sections will become a “Blind” section for the users and new content discovery will be the realm of google now and similar products.

    1. fredwilson

      love that song

      1. PhilipSugar

        Me too, all time classic.

    2. ShanaC

      thanks, I hope so too (and thank you for the song)

    3. fredwilson

      made this my song of the dayhttp://fredwilson.vc/post/1…thanks for inspiring that

      1. laurie kalmanson


    4. Tilie

      AWWWWH how has it been so long since l listened to the kinks. Thankyou!!!!!! groving in my chair and dancing around my lounge . Perfect post to start a new year

  26. MichaelBlend

    Fred, you are ending the year with some incredibly thought-provoking posts. They make me remember why I come back here every morning. Thank you for that, and one of my resolutions is to try to contribute to this vibrant community. Have a great New Year!

    1. fredwilson

      give me some time to think and shit happensthanks for the nice comment Michael

      1. Rohan

        Agree. this was a really really great post!

        1. Vasudev Ram

          Yes, great summary of 2014 from Fred’s perspective. I’m looking forward to his 2015 predictions post.

      2. Tilie

        Yes it was an incredibly thought provoking post, l got caught on the fish line and forgot why l was so excited to read this post in the 1st place. I will wait patiently while you think shit happens and you post again

  27. JamesHRH

    This is a terrific post, with one addendum.Very few things actually ever die. I listened to AM radio this week. I tried really hard to go paperless this past year – the major corporations that I deal with make that process very one sided (I gave up).These changes into the next new thing phase are happening. But the verb is not replacing, the verb is emerging.Happy New Year!

    1. fredwilson

      yes, for suredanny meyer did a starbucks to mcdonalds this year for god’s sake!!!!

      1. LE

        Shackshack is a great concept and as I’ve said I’m all for making a buck any way one can. [1] That said I can’t get beyond the fact that there is (and has been) an arms race in the food and restaurant industry to entice as much crap down people’s throats as they can possibly consume. [2] Food as entertainment and food as enjoyment. Like smoking pot, you may be able to eat responsibly but guess what? Most people can’t. It is an “elephant” in the room. Clearly walking through any supermarket you will see all the products that the food addicts are drawn to purchase.Most people don’t have will power. And the attractive presentation and availability of food now vs. 40 or 50 years ago and the resulting effect on people’s health [3] which creates increased costs for all of us is undeniable. It make be less of an issue in NYC simply because people walk. Out in the ‘burbs that is not the case.[1] In other words I’m not claiming that I wouldn’t do a “Shake Shack” because of the reasons that I have a problem with things like “Shake Shack”.[2] By “crap” I don’t mean the food quality I mean the calories. And the fact that tasty food means you will eat more than you should.[3] Not to mention that the availability of medicine that can treat the symptoms of obesity mean that people don’t die and have less of a reason to alter their eating habits. Didn’t used to be like that. As the mafia says “you deal you die”. Here, pills and intervention has crated one big “do over”.

    2. Matt Zagaja

      Fax Machines are the undead of the technology world. There is no reason for them to continue to exist, yet they persist like zombies.

      1. Supratim Dasgupta

        Funny but a majority of seamless.com orders are still faxed to restaurants.

      2. ShanaC

        this – you can’t do medicine without them

      3. ShanaC

        this – you can’t do medicine without them

  28. Rohan

    Looking forward to your 2015 post. this was awesome.Wishing everyone a nice new year evening!

  29. Joe Lazarus

    Regarding 1, is LinkedIn’s spot secure for work-related social? Granted, they are the clear leader, but every time I use the service, I can’t help but think that focused startups could solve the specific use cases better. Facebook and Twitter, on the other hand, do their jobs pretty well for me.

    1. fredwilson

      feels pretty secure but i agree that the service is annoying to use unless you are paying them lots of money

      1. LE

        Agree with that 100%.

      2. Vasudev Ram

        What’s the difference in that case (when you are paying them a lot)? Less/no ads or unwanted pages/topics shown?

        1. fredwilson

          you can actually do stuff

          1. Vasudev Ram

            Ah, instead of stuff being done to you – I get it. As in, you are no longer the product :)Happy new year to the AVC community.

      3. Kevin OKeefe

        I’ve been paying them lots of money for lots of years and compared to Facebook the service is annoying. Not as semless in its use for reading and social metworking. Heck I cannot even comment on my iPhone because it freezes up. I expect to Facebook become to equal of LI for many people in the coming years — except when it comes to hiring.

    2. Drew Meyers

      I think someone will make a major play at them in 2015 or 2016. There is one new player I’m super excited about (& have been beta testing), but they aren’t live so don’t want to mention their name yet.

  30. theschnaz

    “Sharing economy” sure was good PR/marketing!

  31. Elia Freedman

    I don’t agree on #5. I don’t think Xiaomi will have much success outside China.

  32. ErikSchwartz

    3/ The “sharing” economy is predicated on a large number of poor people.Going into debt to participate in the sharing economy is an incredibly risky move (buying a car to drive for Uber, especially if Uber is making you the loan). Basically it’s indentured servitude.

    1. ShanaC

      It’s also predicated on people staying poor. That isn’t necessarily a good or socially stable function

      1. pointsnfigures

        Illinois welfare system traps people in piverty

    2. Drew Meyers

      Isn’t the world in general predicated on a large number of poor people?

      1. ErikSchwartz

        Is it moral to run a business that profits by taking advantage of their desperation?

        1. Drew Meyers

          No, I don’t think it is.But sharing economy companies aren’t the only ones that do this. Restaurants, factories, taxis, maid services, etc all rely on labor pools without many other options for higher paid positions. In fact I think there is an argument that most jobs are to some degree taking advantage of desperation…of having mortgages, car payments, credit card debt to pay. Why else are there so many people in this world who hate their jobs?I’m not advocating businesses SHOULD operate this way. Just saying many companies DO operate this way.

          1. Tilie

            Just because they do it doesn;t make it just or moral. Having a just and moral ethos in your business meets its own rewards and sets alternative models that do no harm and serve as effective role models

          2. Drew Meyers

            I agree. I’m not saying people should do it at all. Far, far from it.

  33. ErikSchwartz

    8/ There’s a step beyond getting rid of files. Some files should be local, some should be in the cloud. The user should neither know nor care where the file is as long as it’s availableYour Caribbean experience is the perfect example. Streaming broke so you had no media. Your phone could easily store enough local media for your trip.Eventually we’ll get to a place where your phone knows you’re going to a place with bad connectivity and locally caches enough media (seamlessly) so that you get the media you want.The user should not care where the media is cached.

    1. anne o

      nope, users should rather be educated about that. Someday Google Drive, iCloud and all others will be subject to attacks, and tech people will complain that average people are dumb and never do backups.

      1. ErikSchwartz

        You already have no idea where your file is playing from.Take HBO Go. When they finish reworking their system your show will play via this path.HBO -> Major League Baseball Advanced Media -> Level3 -> Level3 edge cache within your ISPs network -> your device.How is not caching the file on your device the next logical step?

    2. fredwilson

      we had media on my laptop!but it was old stuff.

      1. ErikSchwartz

        That’s the opportunity. Smart caching.

        1. Vasudev Ram

          And smart syncing – only the deltas transferred.

    3. Nick Devane

      Or connectivity may just improve.Mesh networks > files

      1. ErikSchwartz

        Not nearly as fast as storage becomes free.I work for BitTorrent on live P2P video streaming, I know all about mesh networks. Making that work, on-demand, with decent performance, requires many, many files located within the mesh.

    4. ShanaC

      nope – but then you get who owns what questions constantly

  34. Gregory Magarshak

    Happy New Year coming up for everyone! I think 2015 will be one of the most exciting years on record for internet / computer related innovation. Both with self-driving cars (hardware) as well as disruption of existing business models (social networking, Amazon, etc.) Should be exciting. These were my predictions back in 2012, I wonder to what extent they’ve come true: http://magarshak.com/blog/?…Fred, I’m glad you finally got an iPhone this past year. Back in the day, when I reached out to you, you had asked if we built stuff for Android. Now that you’ve got the iPhone, I am hoping I can drop by in 2015 and show you what we’ve got :)Happy New Year to everyone on this blog!

    1. fredwilson

      well i’m going back to android soon. maybe another couple months. i am doing six months iphone, six months android going forward

      1. Peter

        I have gone ipad and android phone. Happy to recommend it. You still need a mouse for the ipad though (jailbreak as of now) for using the old universe of apps.

      2. Supratim Dasgupta

        So you wont invest in a business that is iOS only now? just curious.

  35. Steven Kane

    2015: the first generation born after the web browser was born turns 21!

    1. ErikSchwartz

      Wow. Now I feel old.

      1. pointsnfigures

        Wait until your kids criticize your snapchats and Instagram captions

    2. ShanaC

      i am feeling old

    3. fredwilson

      wow. that would be my son and his friends

  36. george

    Notably, I would add wearables to this list of items that will become forward-looking in 2015. The question: Will this new device category change the world, industry(s), or perhaps just the direction of our eyeballs. Needless to say, it’s a key theme and it will have significant impact reinventing new business opportunities and social applications; perhaps even more in healthcare…

  37. Jordan Elpern-Waxman

    is it a coincidence that your list is syntactically in the form of a tweetstorm?

  38. Rob Leclerc

    Delivery had a huge year. More broadly it was a huge year for online-offline. Also Food- and Ag-Tech also made a big emergence as investors cashed continue to look for disruption in calcified industries. In 2013 $277m was invested in this space, in 2014 it will be nearly $1 billon (will be calculating this later in the week).

  39. Steve_Dodd

    Hi Fred, I find this list intriguing and really couldn’t disagree with your first point more. There will be (an is) incredible social application innovation going forward (as evidenced by your second point) If those “current” leaders and “mature” platforms think they are “secure”, that will be the beginning of their demise as new and innovative social applications / business models emerge and overtake them while they try to protect and justify their existence.IMO, we are just at the beginning of the social disruption, not anywhere near the end.This is further validated by the previous discussion about Twitter. Some users love it, but investors hate it. It’s “eyeballs” (as we’re also seeing with Facebook) are being over taken by social messaging services and other sites that provide the value the socially enabled consumer is seeking.

  40. Sonny Taichi

    FredThinking back let us take a moment of time and offer our deepest condolences to families of the passengers who lost their lives in the flight crashes around the worldWhen you put things in retrospect please make sure it is not about money and investments all the time. Life is beyond that as you have seen in many cases.Yours is a popular blog and I expected something related to these atleast when you put things out to public. Instead you seemed to have engrossed with material realities all the time. I bet you are counting on the Twitter feeds when the mishaps occur around the world.

    1. Culver Nunan

      That’s right Sir. Even I personally felt Fred was more interested in the Sony hack news and bothered less about the plane crashes which made more news than the former. He could have give suggestions on how technology would have helped track plane crashes. But it looks like no money involved so he was less bothered. In a blogpost that reaches a diverse audience he should have atleast mentioned about it just the way he did to Sony hack,, all for a frigging movie

  41. ShanaC

    In order to become good at lot of these tasks in your non tweetstorm storm, a lot of hard ai problems will become dominate points for these companies.How to look at data will become one of the new “it” theses – if only for a computer to take over(and happy new year to everyone 🙂 )

    1. Supratim Dasgupta

      Completely agree. though Elon Musk’s comment on AI makes me nervous.

  42. Vasudev Ram

    Since it’s now the new year in India, I’ll make a prediction – Fred will start blogging sometimes in the tweetstorm format: 1/ … 2/ … 🙂 (@pmarca calls it tweetshotting)

  43. Andrew Kennedy

    great post. happy new year avc. my new years resolution is to spend more time creating and less time consuming (to be measured on a daily basis). I hope everyone has a safe and fun NYE. Best, Andy

    1. Tilie

      Do you mind if l adopt that as a resolution for this year aswell

  44. SubstrateUndertow

    #1 —-> #2represent the emergent evolutionary extension of centralized social-organs into a much more function-driven array of distributive social-nervous-system components ?It’s crunch time for individualist-Leiningen vs the collective-nervous-system of the social ants.This transition represents a razor’s edge social-tipping-point that warrant serious collective introspection as regards the generic themes of inertia-dampening in organically-viral accelerant systems.Given that the pennies in the currency of this particular instantiation of organically accelerant expansion are cognitively-self-aware humans in contrast to the much simpler and less volatile atomic/molecular/cellular pennies of previous self-organizing virally-accelerant systems a purely lessie-faire self-organizing best-fittness statistical marketplace is not likely to work this time around.We are faced with an existential choice between collective/proactive cognitively self-referenial steerage of our own social evolutionary design or runaway viral chaos.Happy New Year to Everyone !:-)

  45. Mark Essel

    Happy New Year AVC folks!

    1. Donna Brewington White

      Happy New Year, Mark (and Michelle)!

  46. Pete Griffiths

    You forgot the blockchain :)The rise of distributed trust. Increased understanding that its the blockchain not just bitcon.

  47. richardaltman

    new technology is always filled with old content, looking in the rear view is necessary, for example, these words your reading are my thoughts in the container of language, new is always filled with the old.

  48. Marcus Schappi

    Interesting, no mention of hardware!

    1. Dasher

      2014 will be seen as the year VR has finally become legit.

  49. Twain Twain

    Happy 2015 to everyone! Thanks for 2014 and all the fun and smarts!

  50. Dan Conway

    Can’t remember the specific post but was the end of Apple (and the dominance of Google?)called in 2013 or 2014?2014 Returns:Apple: up 37.96%Google: down 5.76%

    1. fredwilson

      i’ve been wrong about that for almost a decade now

  51. Dan Conway

    What happened in 2014? It was an ok year for Tech but it was a monster year for Biotech. 2014 will be looked back as the year where a corner was turned, where advancements in the use of tech and data exploded the advancements, results and returns for the biotech industry….suspect that continues for years. Dots are connecting.

  52. Dasher

    0/ VR has finally become legit.

  53. Christian Van Der H.

    Youtube is a monster for sure. But this year, quietly, facebook was effective in the video market. By promoting auto-play in all the videos you get from your feed, many youtubers are getting more views from their contents in facebook with less likes in their fanpages than from youtube with more subscribers.

  54. pointsnfigures

    I would add that social networks are going deep and stratifying. Specialized social networks bringing people together around one theme. TradingView.com or Brilliant.org are examples

  55. Razmig Hovaghimian

    re 7/ YouTube, impressive that they didn’t have to trade volume for margin, or see a massive exodus of talent in ’14. Feels like something has to give in ’15, with ‘programmable brands’, not MCNs, likely emerging. Content still rules, and the best will challenge YT’s 55/45 split …

  56. Michael V.

    Fred, saying “Xiaomi is the new and better Samsung” is like saying Apple is the new and better Orange. Samsung sells phones to make profits, Xiaomi sells phones to seed e-commerce business.It’s difficult to see that from the US, but Xiaomi won’t come to North America and things indeed will be very very interesting. More here “Only for fans, or why Xiaomi is not what you think it is.”https://medium.com/@mvakule…

  57. greyenlightenment

    your list didn’t mention all huge gains in web 2.0 valuations

    1. fredwilson

      easy come, easy go.good markets come and go. good companies don’t.

  58. howardlindzon

    In 2014 I learned that is a good start http://thereformedbroker.co…And investing is cool again …just not sure how cool it will become but it does not matter as it needs to be cool for people to want to learn the language.

  59. Roger L. Cauvin

    Isn’t Dropbox still stuck in the “files” paradigm, while Google Drive supports true, native, simultaneously-editable documents in the cloud?

    1. fredwilson

      yes. but i have to believe they are working on adapting to the new model and won’t let themselves get stuck in the file paradigm

  60. marko calvo-cruz

    Fred, do you think that Vimeo has a bleak future?Some other thoughts from the post:-I think its a push to say that kids are “using snapchat instead of instagram”. I’m not sure if one is necessarily a substitute for another. I think instagram serves a purpose that snapchat could never fill. I agree with the point you were trying to make though.-I disagree that we’ve gotten rid of files just yet. I think a large majority of people aren’t so immersed with cloud services yet. I think there’s still a bridge of trust that these services need to build. Services like Spotify, Netflix, and Soundcloud have had an easier time doing so probably because the value they provide is clear and speaks for itself as opposed to google cloud and dropbox who cannot communicate that same value yet.Great post

    1. fredwilson

      no. every market has a #2 and a #3.but in this case, the gap is very large

  61. beidaren

    Google has peaked…

  62. tom_m

    Not sue “social media phase has ended” … It was a weak label on an observation of internet evolution. The reason why you believe it has ended is because you’re looking for innovation in a label from ~10 years ago. Which is silly, no matter when the phrase was first coined, because a label can’t innovate.I think overall what “happened” was the world got lazy and impatient. All of the bullet items listed here are tools that helped get us there. They didn’t happen. They were created. What happened was the change in attitude and culture.Now what’s going to happen next as a result of this is the question. My personal opinion is the bubble will burst yet again. We’re in need of a good reset, don’t you think?On one hand I feel like things like Uber and Airbnb make a good cover story as to why we’re in another collapse. I feel like blame is likely there when they get lobbied out of existence. Or out of value I suppose. Value then existence if you want to be technical.On the other hand I feel like things like cyber warfare and net neutrality will be the cover story.Maybe a combination of it all really. I’m just hoping that my company isn’t greatly affected by the collapse or that I can exit before the bubble bursts. In fact, I don’t think it will be due to the efficiency and the target audience which can not simply go out of business. Anyway, nice list! It’s hard to recap 2014. Happy New Year!

  63. Guest

    Apparently the fact that people still use social media constantly but not so much NEW social media means, to you, that the “social media phase of the Internet has ended.” An interesting if totally backwards conclusion. Mostly backwards.Messaging is not “the new social media.” Social media is messaging; they are and always have been the same thing. What are Facebook, Instagram, and in particular Twitter, if not platforms that let or require people to send each other messages? Don’t answer that; this is a rhetorical, non-social-media communication.Yep, renting is gone, buying is gone, everything is online. Meanwhile, in the real world, some of us actually have to deal with humans and can’t necessarily rely on services that only serve the precious fucking Bay Area.Oh yes. A “new and better Samsung” in the US is really going to change things. Because Samsung is the problem, and… I guess… a new and better one is the answer? This is so simplistic it’s hard to even start to address.”Mobile and messaging” has “STARTED” to “impact the enterprise?” Where the shit have you been? At this point it’s clear that this article could’ve been written ten years ago and still not have been terribly insightful.”YouTube became a monster. it always has been.” Wow. So this thing that has always existed came into existence. Also, as writers, please do the very minimum possible and care just a little bit about punctuation. This is pathetic.Now apparently files are gone! A service that lets us… mirror files… has done away with files. Nothing in their mission, purpose, or even this pathetic summary suggests such a feat, so where is the rationale? Mirroring files is exactly the opposite of doing away with them.Yeah, you left out and frankly cocked up quite a few things, including the last few ‘points’ that weren’t even worth addressing in this post. Better luck next year; hopefully you’ll take the time to pick up the concept of research, citation, and maybe even FACTS before you spew more of this same sort of crap.

    1. Tilie

      Ok well argued ?and thought provoking. What is your rational for being so harsh Why use aggressive terms; ‘ cocked up, spew forth, crap” Me thinks your ego is running a little hot. Do you need someone to tell you how great you are, whats eating at you? Why does your opinion need to be peppered with emotional put downs?As an embarrassing red headed Australian politican said “please explain”

  64. Steven Roussey

    What’s old in new again. AOL instant messenger -> WhatsApp, WebVan -> InstaCart, etc. Different, of course, too. Yet still recycled.

  65. Mark Ghermezian

    Really enjoyed this. I feel like three items were left out. SAAS/Enetrprise. Bitcoin and Drones. Or maybe they did not mature enough in 2014?

  66. RenataBliss

    about 7)YouTube is an amazing product that fulfills the needs of the user perfectly. However it’s a 2 sided market, and the content providers are deeply dissatisfied with their earnings. If a new product could fix filmmakers’ earnings, they’d capture the supply chain. ESPECIALLY for the mobile YouTube millionaires (people with 1M+ audiences), who would bring their mobile audiences if they stood a chance of becoming actual millionaires.

  67. RenataBliss

    Firechat is one of 2014’s great innovations. When groups of people can mobilise and connect to each other using their own phones rather than an internet provider then they can decide their own content.

  68. Tommy

    If you really believe #4 you should talk to the guys at Wealth Forge. They quietly own that market in the US right now. Happy to intro.

  69. Jonathon Ende

    Couldn’t agree more that files are dead and will be converted into browser based equivalents. SeamlessDocs is helping this become a reality. Our platform allows PDF forms to be converted into smart cloud versions so they can be completed and eSigned from any device and synced back automatically to the cloud. It even builds a database and has dramatic other benefits over a dumb pdf.

  70. Sean Hull

    Have searched high and low but can’t seem to find it.Anyone know where “I guess accidents can happen” quote comes from?

    1. fredwilson

      NYTLead article they wrote the day North Korea’s Internet was down

  71. florenciap

    Good one! Nice to see your thoughts on the “sharing economy.” My thoughts exactly when I experienced being on the “other side” of it: http://nextrends.swissnexsa….

  72. Susan Avila

    Sharing economy: I’ll share my commodity with you if you share your money with me.

  73. taylorhou

    2015 – enterprise collaboration powered by software that can leverage existing solutions to create/add/unearth hidden value – box, dropbox, drive, etc… will become the platforms that new companies will build value on top of that might seem niche or “just a feature”

  74. Andrew Newallo

    The (9) Net Neutrality… issue I believe will be decided by “3/ the “sharing economy” was outed as the “rental economy…” and by “10/ cyberwarfare, cybercrime, cyberhacking, and cybersecurity “; as services to protect your data go online.

  75. Austerus

    “we finally got rid of files” – you obviously mean consumption files like video/audio or some documents, but that’s far from “final”. Because currently consumption clouds like netflix or hulu are very limited in reach. It may shock you, but they cover less than half the world (netflix, hulu is just in the US and Canada). Most media is still download-based or on physical format waiting to be ripped.Secondly, creation media (which in the music world also includes uncompressed formats) remains local. Cloud storage is still too expensive compared to local storage. As a developer, I have backups in free cloud storage but I keep my files locally for current activities and file extensions are still relevant.

  76. charliesaidthat

    This is a great round of up the trends we are seeing in our industry, especially on the sharing economy and cyber-warfare.

  77. Jordan Carlisle

    You could argue that 1-9 are markets overcoming barriers, because technology enables greater transparency, accountability, and fluidity. Those 9 trends are why I love technology. However, 10 is a market reaction to more personal information living in cyberspace. How can we enable more transparency, accountability, and fluidity in web-security? Blockchain iterations maybe?

  78. jbwales

    What happened to Capital letters?

  79. Seth Miller

    What do you think caused social media to “bust”?Snapchat trumps all apps at the moment and it’s obvious why. Here’s a great medium post I stumbled upon that explains what this teenager thinks about social apps – https://medium.com/backchan…Things are looking up for my rap messaging startup!

  80. ilan peer

    i love how you don’t capitalize the ‘i’s 🙂

  81. Tom Labus

    It’s a good point @ccrystle:disqus. Long overdue for a lot of us

  82. William Mougayar

    Haha is it April 1st already? You can’t do it Charlie.

  83. fredwilson

    same to you Charlie

  84. JimHirshfield

    Lurker creeper

  85. Elia Freedman

    I for one enjoy your comments and will miss them but understand. If you have a hard time kicking the habit, move to the west coast with me. By the time you get here in the morning the conversation will be three hours old and you won’t see the opportunity!

  86. ShanaC

    feel free to stop by any time and I for one will miss you.

  87. Robert Metcalf

    Certainly won’t replace your comments, but I’m moving from lurker to contributor. Maybe some new voices will maintain your lurk status!

  88. Donna Brewington White

    Aw, don’t. You’re one of the ones I show up for. But we can affirm and welcome the new voices. Your cred gives this even more weight.

  89. awaldstein

    I’m in.See you in February if I can exert some control.

  90. William Mougayar

    Perhaps, but all I’m thinking is the Godfather’s quote “Just when I thought I was out… they pull me back in.” https://www.youtube.com/wat

  91. Dasher

    Last thing I remember, I wasRunning for the doorI had to find the passage backTo the place I was before”Relax, ” said the night man,”We are programmed to receive.You can check-out any time you like,But you can never leave! “

  92. JimHirshfield

    That would be a loss for us. Stick around.

  93. William Mougayar

    so the AVC mafia is going to pull out and go on a commenting diet in January? i’ll do that if you all comment on my blog in return 🙂

  94. LE

    Every morning for the longest time I would go to Starbucks and get coffee. I haven’t done it in a few weeks (trying to heal some digestive issue). So for the first time I stopped at the local whole food’s clone in the area and while I was tempted to get a mocha I saw they also did juices. I asked the girl what they had that wasn’t sweet and she gave me some kale, apple whatever thingy.($4.99 for 12 ounces) She asked if it was ok to make it in the vitamix because whatever she normally used was broken. I told her “sure I don’t know what it tastes like anyway so it won’t matter to me”.I sucked that thing down before I got to my car just exiting the supermarket.And I thought, hmm, I could do this instead of SB in the AM.So to go with the saying you can only replace one addiction with another addiction. It’s less about self control and more about finding a new habit. And hopefully that habit is better than the old one.

  95. JimHirshfield

    Fundamentals don’t change.

  96. LE

    and find my contributions much less informed and evolved than others on most topicsIn protest, if you drop out I will not try your bread when it’s at the local Whole Foods. So you need to consider the business impact of your decision. On a serious note, I like your comments and the fact that you think they are not “informed” doesn’t mean that they don’t provide information and benefit to others.

  97. LE

    If he doesn’t comment it’s a loss. But why is it a loss if he doesn’t lurk?

  98. fredwilson

    Maybe we can limit the comments to spammers in January 😉

  99. JimHirshfield

    My intent was that he stick around AND comment. He can’t be induced to comment of he doesn’t even show up. 80% of success is just showing up.

  100. LE

    Good point. When I was a kid I asked my dad (as we were driving through one of those neighborhoods with a bar on every corner you know the type) why they had opaque glass blocks for the windows. He said because if they didn’t it would entice people to drink. That wasn’t exactly what he said but he was essentially acknowledging the pavlovian response that is triggered in the brain upon exposure to something that is a known area of pleasure.So you are correct. If he lurks then he will probably get sucked in and comment.

  101. LE

    Better yet (WF is further away) go after this place (the Marlton Location). It’s a Whole Food’s clone:http://www.rastellimarket.com/

  102. William Mougayar

    Got to keep the bots & machines happy…they are taking over eventually anyways 🙂

  103. ShanaC

    oh good lord, no

  104. PhilipSugar

    Yes, now I remember it. I forgot the thread but we totally agree.

  105. ShanaC

    I’ve been worried about this myself. Bringing people in is not easy

  106. Salt Shaker

    Is this a form of lent or a play on the belief that abstinence makes the heart grow fonder (or whatever that expression is)?I for one appreciate your commenting. You’re frequently the “voice of reason,” but I appreciate hearing from outliers too, for perspective if nothing else. (Hope JLM makes a return visit soon, as well as more kookology insight from Kid.)I was drawn to this blog for the learning and the diverse points of view, although some of the discourse over the past few months was frankly a little harsh and (sadly) a bit too personal for my taste. Nonetheless, it’s still a very enjoyable place to visit in the morn.

  107. JimHirshfield

    That avatar.

  108. pointsnfigures

    You just have to have the balls to ave an opinion and type

  109. pointsnfigures

    Certainly did in fin tech

  110. William Mougayar

    exactly!…the role of the user changes as technology’s role changes.

  111. Anne Libby

    Happy New Year, Charlie. Hope to see you (somewhere) in 2015.

  112. Tilie

    l hope so for reasons’ sake