I am always thinking about what is next and I feel like I’m spending even more time this year thinking about this. All of us at USV seem to be pondering this question a lot right now.
I came across this nice post by Ben Thompson in which he ponders the question out loud, which is my favorite way to ponder.
Here is the money quote:
While the introduction of the iPhone seems like it was just yesterday (at least it does to me!), we are quickly approaching seven years – about the midway point of this epoch, if the PC and Internet are any indication.4 I sense, though, that we may be moving a bit more quickly: the work/productivity and communications applications have really come into focus this year, and while the battle to see what companies ride those applications to dominance will be interesting, it’s highly likely that the foundation is being layed for the core technology of the next epoch:
Ben’s framework is roughly similar to ours but his conclusions are a bit different as follows:
1) I would substitute personal mesh for wearables
2) I would substitute the blockchain stack for bitcoin
3) I would bet on messenger as the next mobile OS over anything else. We have already seen that happen in China.
But in any case, posts like Ben’s and what comes of them (this) are super helpful. Thanks Ben.
A good shot to start the day.Two thoughts:1.The Uber Thing. I think that we are still trying to untangle where the efficiency of the web meets the logistical needs of the real world. He mentions Instacart which while interesting in many ways is just personal shoppers driven by orders by location on the phone. Primitive yet gets the job done.2. Mobile conversations.I use my phone for everything. Get info, shoot out requests, instructions.Still a challenge to truly write. To be nuanced.If the laptop is becoming more and more vestigial where is the platform for communications going to be?
Re 2: The “mobile laptop”, for lack of a better term? My sister has a Samsung tablet with a snap on keyboard/charger. If it had a mousepad on the keyboard, it would ge perfect. Maybe there are ones that do?
My son pinged me that he was sending me a keboard of some sort.I find that when I head out with just my phone for the day, its all tactics.My best work comes when I’m writing and that is the avenue I need have mobilized.
yeah, i’m after a pocketable bluetooth keyboard
Writing on a phone isn’t ideal, but with one arm in a sling now it’s been more comfortable for me than using a laptop.
Did you sprain your other arm when you tripped while walking and texting?
Actually, I tore my rotator cuff while bench pressing, and had it surgically repaired last week. But my surgeon says it had been weakened by an old injury, and it was sort of a cumulative thing, so tripping while texting could have torn it too, I suppose.
When I was in recovery, one of the physicians said when the nerve block wore off, the pain would be “impressive”. He was right; I’ve been impressed.
Ha! That’s an elegant way to say it.
You are best to write on a physical medium and take a picture.Not so much for the efficiency but for the quality of the work you will produce. There is a fair amount of literature showing that the complex motor function of writing stimulates the old noggin’ better than pecking at a keyboard.
Interesting. I write longhand almost every morning ( for the therapy or whatever ) but I don’t save that for anything. I also use a moleskine notebook and about 30% of the notes I jot down during the day go into it and then I take pics of pages to save to Evernote ( the other 70% are done directly to Evernote or via some other e-input).BUT I never thought about doing that for blog posts or similar.Do you do any “real” writing – blog posts, work, etc. – that way.
For Emily Dickinson maybe, not for me;)I learned to type when I was a child and to me keys are writing are thinking.And as a career technologist creating anything analog with no easy path to digital is something I just can’t do.
The lobes you have can survive a little braking & still perform at a world class level.I didn’t listen to Miss Olsen in Gr8 typing class. Spent a lot of time in the Rhubarb Patch instead of being a Good Pumpkin & working on my touch type skills.Dvorak?
Better voice recognition and editing.
I’m with you on both, but I think the blockchain will play a big part.1. I’ve been thinking about this ever since I read a couple of your blog posts on the subject – how to really use all the data we have in a way that really helps us intrigues me2. I am “messaging” people more and more lately ( partly driven by the switch from iOS to Android I think ) and it’s really growing on me. I’m also doing more and more work on mobile, which, to your point, is why I’m writing less code and writing less period.
yup–blockchain was long legs and possibilities.
This is what’s next. Got mine yesterday. It’s awesome;-)https://www.youtube.com/wat…
Seriously? Tell me this is a spoof or I’m living in the future?!!!
“WARNING: we are still working on our prototype and didn’t launch any pre-order/order of the Cicret Bracelet. So don’t trust any website selling it yet.”http://www.cicret.com/wordp…
BTW, how do you pronounce that product name?#brandingissues
I have one, too. But it’s not on my arm.
That sounds naughty. On your thigh? Tummy?
Piqued your curiosity, eh Jim? LOLWe’ll leave it at that.Hey, speaking of ‘old’, I saw our bestie Markhoff the other day! We were at a Will Signing party together. W00t!
Michael is salt of the earth. Your estate is in good hands.
My estate, and my best friend’s, too. It was her will-signing party! I recommend Michael to everyone I know.
great summer product. what does the winter product look like?
I’d show you but I left it in the side pocket of my hoverboard.
Is that based on Omnitouch financed by Microsoft:* https://www.youtube.com/wat…I’ve been tracking this UX for a few years!Watch out for the “shoulder boulder” though.Interestingly….it might have been done with MS Kinect…….The underlying technology and IP of Kinect, PrimeSense, has been acquired by……..APPLE who are producing Apple Watch.Small world, eh?
stratechery – my tongue is twisted.
I thought this post had to do with your retirement…as in, “what’s next (for you)”
HE’S TOO YOUNG.
He’s French. Live a little 🙂
scared you, right?
More like bummed me out.
me too – the titles frequently do that to me 🙂
Headline Writer is a job the future still needs.
I’m thinking about biology and genome as programming language, and a bit obsessed about anything/everything built on top of that.
Clearly that’s not grabbing any attention! I co-produced an event on this the week before last on Biofabrication: http://www.biofabricate.co. The impacts are vast….and sustainable. People called it ‘mind-blowing’ but maybe that’s just me.
Yes, biology is the future, as in my kids are the future of me. Pass it on down the line.But seriously, I’m looking forward to the future of better personal health data from monitoring, like Fitbit or Jawbone UP…but better.
In this case what I am interested in the reprogramming of living cells (as computers) who produce alternative outputs which are high-value, either as end products or manufacturing inputs. Bacteria can produce cellulose (as their waste) that is purer and cheaper than cotton, using 1/1000 the H2O.
OK, as long as no animals were harmed
BINGO!! That’s the best part. None harmed because none birthed, fed or killed. Just grow the cells you need. (Like leather and meat, as Modern Meadow is doing in Brooklyn.) Sent telepathically.
Bio fabricate looks amazing. I will investigate with my cofounder Vijal. He and I were with Nina Tandon of EpiBone at a Columbia Biz School accelerator in 2013. They nerded out a lot since he was in med school(during the accelerator). We have also been discussing the intersection of growing bone and tissue etc with my artist/designer friend who teaches wearables at RISD, and some MIT people. Fun times with boundless imagination and tech know how.
Thanks! It was a total brain explosion. We had scientists, artists and startups together. Plus corporates. My favorite writeup was this: http://radar.oreilly.com/20…
And YES Nina Tandon is phenomenal.
Hi Tereza! Actually the basis for our games at na2ure is digging into biological blocks to explain them to kids. Think of it like mix and match maker concepts in bio to facilitate learning of this kind at younger and younger ages. Information architecture chunked out into playable form.
it is, but it is so complicated that baseline algorithms that we know now may not be able to process that code. Seriously, some guy at Microsoft research got one that can run against one tiny segment of stuff for the first time in history, and it was used to identify a protein in a specific form of cancer.
which research/researcher are you referring to? that’s not consistent with what i’m seeing.
Christian Borgs Microsoft Research New England in conjuction with Harvard and MIT (this paper was with MIT) http://research.microsoft.c…
You were bullish on drones. What happened to the predictions about drones? I’m guessing they fit in nicely with the mesh network theory.
Anti drone laser tech
The Drone Wars, a production of Sony Pictures, in which ruthless dictators fight it out.Wait. Movie withdrawn.
I predict more banking and retail hack-ins. And more cyber warfare. All things digital will be stolen or broken, unfortunately. (Did I wake up on the grumpy side of the bed today?)
100%. You could really sell a snapchat for email these days…
To Sony employees?
to everyone else in hollywood
right – Cyber Dust, or more accurately, one CD investor, has been reminding users that *you* don’t have to be the one that is hacked – you’re screwed if anyone you communicate with is hacked.
I call that a “conversation.”So much of what gets flushed into the email channel is not effectively introduced/resolved there. To me, the silver lining of the Sony incident is that our companies will be forced to think about what we really use email for. Thoughtful organizations will look for behavior change to be a huge part of the solution.
totally. can you imagine what it would be like if the emails of congress were leaked?
Congressmen don’t know how to use computers. They’re just starting to embrace flip phones.
Fairly accurate assessment.
they are called blueberries, no, blackberries, that’s it.
Congress emails should be public record except in very (very) exceptional circumstances. Especially since (in theory) “we” are paying for them (well in reality I guess big business is but …)
I don’t agree with that and here is only one reason why. Nobody needs to feel as if every word that they say can be used against them. Talking heads, bloogers and the media would would cherry pick things out of context and run them up a flag pole.And as everyone knows you sometimes say things in one setting that you wouldn’t say in another setting. Would you want your mother following you around all day? Your wife? And so on?
Interesting point. Maybe thats a problem with the talking heads but yeah. I think in general it should be very hard to make secret a document that the government has generated … makes it very easy for these “behind closed doors” meetings to happen which seem to me very anti-democracy
makes it very easy for these “behind closed doors Behind closed doors isn’t necessarily bad. And it may very well be an essential part of the system and needed just like petty crime will never be eliminated just managed. Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.Anyway, politics is the art of compromise and deal making. A “scratch your back” type of world.I don’t believe that the public has the intelligence to understand why and how things actually get done between people with competing interests and objectives. How deals are made. I think it’s a pipe dream to think that you will ever get a bunch of people together that don’t think in their self interest. I’m sure there have been books written on this. I haven’t read them I’m from the school of “observation” over many many years.Here’s an example on a very small scale somewhat unrelated but close. I’m on the board of the condo assoc. And there is no question that I do the bulk of the thinking and creative work and have all sorts of ideas that create value .( If I may say so myself and I will. ) I decided that we needed lights in the rear of the building for security so I will spearhead that project for the good of the entire complex. As I’ve done with other things. On my own time. Without pay. And with little thanks. Anyway in the mean time I bought a light for the rear of my unit which is vandal proof. (The old lights weren’t and they are broken. People don’t think they do shitty things like that). So I wrote to the admin person for the management company (that works for the board) and asked her to get the rest of the board to approve getting that installed early and paying me back for the money that I personally spent. About a week later it was approved and the electrician showed up to do the work. Now of course as a unit owner that wasn’t on the board things wouldn’t have gone as smoothly. But I was given special consideration. You know why? Because I am special and I more than make up for what they will pay for this with my unpaid time and energy for the good of everyone. Go explain that to people who aren’t on the board and don’t know what I do. Not going to be understood. (Nobody wants to serve on the board btw.)My point is people don’t even get involved enough to know what has to be done in order to achieve an objective and the deals that have to be cut. You can look at this as the wrong way for things to be but it’s human nature.By the way to anyone who says “yeah but they get paid for doing their job” the truth is they get paid jack squat. And they are human and act like humans.We didn’t have gridlock back in the smoke filled rooms days. Maybe that’s only a coincidence.
Yeah, the government has all our emails and phone calls, so why shouldn’t we have theirs?
I believe they’re all FOIA-able. (Theoretically.)
will be forced to think about what we really use email for.What do you mean by that? We use email to communicate. And it’s well known that the contents of email could be used in some legal proceeding and therefore made public later on. But with all the email going back and forth every now and then someone is going to slip and say something that they regret. Probably only because of the way people react to it not because they don’t think it. You know there is no freedom of speech in this country apparently.What’s funny is the lack of (apparent) self esteem that someone like Angelina Jolie has if it bothers her so much that she was called “minimally talented”. Like you can get to that point in life where the most of the world drools over you and then a studio exec make a comment and it gets you (from what I read) all unraveled. And feeling sorry for yourself.
“We use email to communicate.” (cue laugh track.)Email is not for making decisions, reaching consensus, or addressing conflict. (It also doesn’t work so well for scheduling meetings.)Sometimes I get emails asking complicated questions, others ask for opinions on emotionally loaded topics. My stock answer, “We’ll handle this more effectively with a quick 10 minute phone call than a multiple email chain.”People who get hundreds of emails a week aren’t communicating, and they’re not working either. They’re sorting through emails.
I think it depends on whether “we” means 1 to 1 or many to many or 1 to many.With respect to 1 to 1 I prefer email because it creates a record of what was said and what was agreed to. At least the way I use it. Also when having some verbal conversations I will often follow up with an email summary both for my records and to be able to point back to some action result or expectation (and so on). And to remember exactly what I said and/or agreed to.Sometimes I get emails asking complicated questions, others ask for opinions on emotionally loaded topics.I agree that there is a point where it’s difficult to answer complicated questions by email since it’s hard to think of all possibilities without clarifying or asking questions.One thing that always bothers me is when the recipient either can’t type, is to busy, or is on mobile and they aren’t able to formulate exactly what they want so it puts the onus on me to think of all the possible answers since they haven’t narrowed down the question or I don’t know what is going on in their head. Big problem.Usually when I send an email asking questions (otoh) I take the time to clearly lay out what I want to know and the agenda and give someone all the info they need to answer my email. It’s not a general email asking a complicated question but a specific question or questions with enough info that the person that I am asking can answer it (assumes they can type and aren’t on mobile of course!)That said obviously you have highlighted some ways in which email is not the best choice but sometimes it’s just the other person is short on time and wants the easy way out (for them). Maybe they should not overextend themselves in that case and have bitten off more than they can chew.As far as “hundreds of emails a week” is it really the emails that are the problem or the fact that they have put themselves in a position that they are dealing with hundreds of emails per week?For example Fred probably gets hundreds of emails per day. That’s because he’s out there and coming in contact with so many people and keeps doing it. But most people aren’t Fred and not everyone meets or deals with that many people and comes close to having that type of problem.In any other business when you get “to busy” when demand exceeds supply you know what you do? You raise prices.  That’s what accountants and lawyers and the local graphic designer will do. But in the case of Fred he can’t do that. What I have done and do.
“As far as “hundreds of emails a week” is it really the emails that are the problem or the fact that they have put themselves in a position that they are dealing with hundreds of emails per week.”Circling back to my original point, many organizations have culturally ingrained behaviors that make this “ok.” People don’t have a choice, because it’s how the organization works.You or I can choose this in our businesses, and set boundaries around how we will/won’t use email. To an extent. Sometimes when I give my stock answer, people’s questions just evaporate.And circling back to points I’m pretty sure you’ve made in the past, in the 90s as a senior client-facing person in a large organization, I had an assistant.She triaged everything that came in for me, and even handled or delegated some of it.) Her work freed me up to handle higher value activities. Today, those jobs are fewer and further between. Today, people making high salaries are doing admin work alongside their revenue producing work.Some younger people in my circles hire “virtual admins” through labor markets to do some of this sort of work.Among other things, I see another SONY accident waiting to happen here, e.g. a virtual admin who doesn’t even work for a firm gains access to customer data…
People don’t have a choice, because it’s how the organization works.Falls under my “only be as honest as the competition” concept. If everyone else is slaving away then that’s the bar that you get judged by. Today, those jobs are fewer and further between. I would think that is a great job for someone on their way up to learn how things “work” in the real world mentorship all of that. Perhaps two people a team. I’m sure this is being done already.One big problem virtual admins (along with your point about security issues) is that you can’t hand them a piece of paper and/or a file. Of course you could scan something or show it to them on a video but paper and being able to handle even your cell phone and be around you I would think still creates enough friction to be a problem vs. someone who is right outside your office.
Try that concept when you get older and your don’t have the memory of a 20 year old. Contemporaneous notes become very important.
I predict more banking and retail hack-ins.Agree. Like healthcare. However keep in mind that something that “is” is not as sexy as something that “isn’t”.And it’s much easier to dupe investors with something that they don’t understand and can’t wrap their heads around than something that they can. Some investors at least.Let’s say you want some cash for an idea to open up comedy clubs. And you even can come up with an interesting argument as to why comedy clubs will explode in the next decade.Or you can decide to have people invest in: … sub atomic particles that they are working on in accelerators like Fermilab etc now. Quarks? By the “law of assumption of legitimacy” (people not wanting to admit they are stupid and/or ask questions or be skeptical) I would posit (as if I’m an academic tool) that people will nod in agreement as to the opportunity that exists in whatever something they don’t understand that is happening at Fermilab.  And if the lab is located in Sweden and the guys working there have an accent the opportunity for a big payday is even larger.
i’m not so sure. dumb $$ MAYBE, but it’s been known to follow smart $$ and get the timing wrong. Investors kinda hate the idea of dropping huge sums in R&D without some security of a revenue generating product. These are my thoughts, but I think now more then ever people want quick DUH type investment thesis’. I think it was you that said, “everyone is looking for a two handed slam dunk from their knees?”
“everyone is looking for a two handed slam dunk from their knees?”Nope definitely not the one that said that.”Investors”  by the way is like “actors” and “computer guys” and “professors”. Covers a wide range of people doing a wide range of things. My dad, back in 1987 when the market crashed, was pictured in a TV news segment after he exited the stock office in the city. (They needed “man on the street” comments). They gave his name and under it they put “investor”.  He said “I’m picking up bargains” or something like that. (And he did pick up bargains..) Like he was Carl Icahn. Haha.
must have been JLM that said that. i remembered the line.
I disagree with you more than you disagree with yourself.
I almost certainly play with myself more than you play with yourself.Speaking of said comment format whatever happened to the guy who agreed with someone more than they did with themselves?
Yes, he’s been absent for a few weeks now.https://disqus.com/by/JLM/
I’ve got my theories and speculation on why.
Well, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to notice that he hasn’t commented since the immigration blog post.
I know the question is why  As well as WHO KNEW and WHEN DID THEY KNOW?.
His shale bets have tanked.
Fracking frowned upon
i miss jlm
Who said that?
I did. Can’t you see my avatar?
i thought it was a quote
You may quote me on that.
Do you think data is more secure hosted on a bank’s server behind their firewall or hosted in the cloud via services like Salesforce.com or Workday?
I’m no expert on that front. Tough to say whether old school IT (banks) with more sensitive data are more robust than new school services with less important data.
It just means more exciting technology will be developed, requiring us to focus on taking care of people so we can lead to ending war and cyber warfare.It’s big money if you can crack open that golden egg.
For sure!BTW, Nice new avatar 🙂
I find it regrettable that some people have so little regard for the welfare of others. They hack charities, churches, celebrities (yeah..I know…who cares) and government sites. Our taxes pay to repair the damage done by these self serving individuals as they sit in Mommies basement all day and chug energy drinks.
I’ll go out on a limb and mention Gestalt, which basically means the whole is worth more than the sum of the parts. I’m talking about how information and services are organized, especially on mobile.A great example is Wikipedia — the site itself is worth more than the sum of the pages, because the pages are enhanced by their presence on the site (indexing, hyperlinks, etc).I believe we’ll see a big change in how stuff is organized on mobile. I see city apps emerging that aggregate many external services that are relevant only to the city you are living in (or visiting).I see personal apps, that aggregate personal information about “me” — well being, medical records, tax deadlines, personal banking, etcIt’s not just about ease of access, it’s about the synergies between different services related by context.
Isn’t that what the network-effect is all about”unlimited contextual synchronization”
I think Ben forgot to correctly value one company: Microsoft. You can now subscribe to Office 365 (which includes desktop apps) for $ 9.99 / month. You can purchase Microsoft products with bitcoins. In the near future you will probably be able to use Visual Studio, one of the best development tools, and C#, an excellent programming language in Linux and iOS. Windows is also being optimized for different form factors. Although Microsoft’s business execution is not perfect they are improving. And yes, network mesh stuff has been available for download on Microsoft Research for years!This is not the future, this is the present.
Are we paying you? Thinking we should. 🙂 Lots of head-nodding over here.If I can help you in any way please reach out.
I work with a variety of operating systems and development tools and VS and C# are my favorites. I am pleased that Microsoft is becoming cross-platform. Companies such as Google seem to be trying to adapt the world to their vision with products such as Chrome OS instead of adapting their offerings to reflect new needs.
This is very, very important to us — so I’m glad to hear it. I am particularly on the lookout for those great cross-platform scenarios. Please don’t hesitate to ping me anytime if you need help.
“in the near future you could probably use one of the best development tools and languages in Linux and iOS” can you elaborate? Thanks.
I was referring to Visual Studio and C#. I just edited my comment to specify this.
people rave about VS
It definitely has its fair share of ups & downs. Too big & bloated is a definite down, as well as a bunch of “weird” bugs where you just end up restarting it and they go away (for a while anyway)
i hate the bugs that are fixed by a reboot. xcode has a lot of them.
Memory leaks or other pointer-related issues, usually.
> Too big & bloated is a definite downIt is an IDE, not a text editor.> as well as a bunch of “weird” bugsIf you like to hunt IDE bugs try Eclipse or look at the WebStorm debugger not doing step by step debugging by default. All this while your notebook battery is being drained. Xcode learning curve is slower because you need to understand a lot of concepts (controllers, views, models) and connect them while in Visual Studio you just drop a control to the UI and code.
I’ve used all three and all have ups & downs for sure. VS has some nice features but can be very frustrating when it goes wrong, or due to how easy it is to “lose” one of the many windows/toolbars etc that you continually need and sometimes seem to appear/disappear randomly …
I am surprised how many friends on Facebook seem more interested in Microsoft Surface than iPad. It seems like few of my friends are tablet/iPad users and just use their phones. If they’re going to drop that much money they end up wanting a full computer.
My partner just gave me his reasons and he also has an iPad. He can use it as a tablet and as a real desktop. A few days ago he was searching for guitar chords and the web pages were using Adobe Flash. You can argue that Adobe Flash is deprecated but there are zillions of examples where a Surface makes a difference. One is Microsoft Office, and please don’t compare Excel with Google Spreadsheet. I like both, but for hardcore “cell crunchers” Excel is much better.
i love my PS3; it’s been a gamechanger for my on-the-go productivity, all up.
is that skepticism, or a request for further detail? 🙂
mixture of both. Behavior of using a game system for personal use in not gaming is just unusual.
OK I read your comment and was completely confused. Then re-read and realized I had stupid typo which of course confused you. I meant ‘SP3’ as in Surface Pro 3. I do not carry a PlayStation 3 in my backpack. At least not anymore.
ha hahaha – oh well 🙂
I’d add that we will see fundamental changes in infrastructure. Might be a corollary to your personal mesh comment. Increased speed using lasers and sub particles like photons to transfer bits of information more efficiently (and disintermediate big telcos). Medicine, education and finance are the next industries that will have huge disruption. Possibly government too….
Photons? Isn’t that fiber optic transmission…which has been around for decades. Are you just saying better faster?
I am not a physics geek, and my lack of knowledge shows. Thinking sub atomic particles that they are working on in accelerators like Fermilab etc now. Quarks?
I guess this shows why I am not involved in this type of investing. Concepts like that are so way way in the future that they might as well not even exist. 10 year time frame is about where I’d be at, tops.
But is it strange or charming (i had to make that joke)http://en.wikipedia.org/wik…
for the first time i am starting to feel strongly that finance is first in that big list to be restructured. I’d have bet education a year ago, but things have changed a lot in my book. It feels like finance is happening right now.
Not just Bitcoin. Dodd-Frank eliminated big bank competition. It didn’t eliminate the demand for those competitors. Lending Club is an example of that. The rise in RIAs and differences in the way we manage money are creating new companies. The entire fin tech ecosystem is being redrawn. For huge incumbents, like exchanges and banks, Bitcoin is the surest way to disrupt. But it’s early days.
p2p looks awfully similar to shadow banking…. subprime credit is not evil and is actually good for markets when done correctly, but no way subprime will come from traditional banks and lenders…..
nope. Though we can transfer information at speeds faster at the speed of light, it takes way too much energy. And a photon is light, so telecos deal with that via fiber optics.If there is going to be a fundamental change: portable safe fusion reactors where what we get out is pure water
They beam data for HFT faster than underground lines but weather can mess it up. I think there are big changes that will happen in core tech. People encourage everyone to be an EE OR CE/CS major but I think Materials will be huge. If you are in B school it’s all about Mrktg and Operations
Most B School people I know doing marketing today have no idea what they are looking at, because the cool stuff is looking say this paper http://research.microsoft.c… and realizing this has pieces to resolving aspects of targeting problems in marketing….Bt the only place you’ll hear about it is in a computational biology lecture or a math lecture…
also, as far as I know, there are no HFT traders getting trading reports faster than the speed of light. If there are some, they must work for the US government, because you can only transfer information faster than the speed of light 25 feet away.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/1006… disintermediated Spread Networks. However, when the weather is bad…
So microwaves are fast and information dense – but the fastest they go are still the speed of light. HFT can’t break physics, which is why clouds are a problem. No trader can. There is a lot of discussion about quantum entanglement ( http://motherboard.vice.com… ) I would suspect Fermilab is involved (and we should increase funding to Fermilab to do stuff like this, since quantum entanglement issues are actually very important to this web stuff as well as national security issues. If you don’t want another sony, you want to be able to build out production level quantum computers cheaply. As much as I like VC – I actually think the kind of risk level for research needed to get to that point isn’t meant for private capital alone because it is considered “basic research” Large chunks of the stuff we’d discover around quantum entanglement won’t help us for 50-100 years commercially – but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t study it.(and don’t get me started about the drama involving Congress trying to argue if we should study twitter or not because they are getting involved in NIH grants. Butt out of NIH grants, increase funding overall, and definitely study twitter because tracking mutating viruses is far harder than tracking tweets. You’ll pay yourself back USA when you want to stop the next version of the 1918 flu….there, now I am ranting)
Fred Thanks for the post. As I twitted to Ben directly, what I see missing here and in his post, is the Epochal for Gaming (including Video Gaming plus VR ) coming in full force…
Exactly what i would link to my thought below.
When will gaming meet bottom up political steerage ?
I’d throw in home entertainment – maybe it’s an extension of the mesh idea, but if I could sit down anywhere in my house and see and hear high definition audio/visual for a reasonable price, that would be amazing. I’m thinking chips implanted in ears and eyes or in the brain – bring it on.
Except blockchain doesn’t fit so nicely into a stack and looks more like the attached…. I know, rough and ugly… but general point is made. Also realizing I could be dead wrong and/or I am heavily influenced by projects I’m invested in.
I think the lines will blur, going forward. Don’t agree that VCs aren’t interested in decentralized models. It depends about the underlying business model, and where they start may be just an entry point into another evolution.
Concur… I just think, given the unique nature of digital tokens as a fundraising tool, VCs have some serious competition in finding and funding the best future technologies. First, I think a crowd of 10,000 developer/tester/investors will be smarter than a crowd of 100 VCs in selecting and nurturing these tech solutions. Second, as noted, decentralized tech has some serious advantages. Of course, VCs can pile on the same projects but I think the days of VCs (read: accredited investors) having exclusive access to the market of opportunities and therefore lots of exclusive opportunity for huge upside on their investments, will soon end. In terms of percent upside for my investment I will have the same opportunities as USV. And the beauty of it: I don’t need to wait for the government to approve Title 3.But I think the stack provided by Fred’s colleague doesn’t hit the mark for one reason: Full stack apps such as bitcoin that allow consumers to interact with the protocol directly will obviate the need for the complex layers highlighted. Imagine if HTTP, TCP/IP, browser tech and server storage were all rolled into one cloud-enabled, decentralized app.I may be completely wrong but I think internet architecture is going to change in profound ways and I think the clean stack diagram may no longer apply.
I’m with you on those 3, but I think #1 might start as “consumer/personal cloud” then evolve from there. #3 is a catch-up for the West as Ted L from Kik pointed out. Maybe we could leapfrog, but not sure.The blockchain stack is going to revolutionize how we write Apps in a de-centralized way. It’s barely starting, but it will be big.
William, how do you define a messenger app?
Hmm….. Tough question for what is it now, but I think going forward they are getting enriched with services, like a pop-up flash social network (via hashtags inside Kik), or as a launch point for anything from ordering a cab to food, or buying things, etc…. like what WeChat does in China.
Ted L reference refers to non-AVC comment?
this one, it’s a good read: https://medium.com/@tedlivi…
Succinct and accurate post by Ted.He is right on all counts.
It’s often dangerous & inaccurate to project the future on a linear trajectory. The lines are always straight in the rear view mirror, when we retrospectively reconstruct them, giving us the illusion of an apriori clarity.That said, I’m seeing a lot of factors and drivers for the future of consumer tech:- unbundling (affects services)- decentralization (affects organizations)- machine learning (affects decision-making)- moving trust to machines (affects transactions)- dematerializing functions (affects smart objects)- cloud processing (affects healthcare & much more)If anything, our world is getting re-wired, re-configured and re-assembled. It’s time we re-imagine everything as it could be, not as an extension of what it has been. New systems are always replacing old systems. And new systems have to be invented where they didn’t exist before.
I am diagramming pendulum swings. Cool stuff.
Machine learning to have big impacts on research/analysis which moves money around – eg. broker reports to become almost obsolete as quantitative/analytical heavy lifting is done in the cloud/internet.
I’ve been pondering this more than usual as of late as well…here’s where my head is at for the moment:1. Mesh networks (the biggest fundamental shift from today’s world/dominate players/infrastructure)2. Wearables (larger data collection which helps lead further into #3)3. pseudo artificial intelligence (AI) leading us closer to real AI4. Global economy (BitCoin related stuff – making transactions between people/companies regardless of political affiliation and physical location possible and frictionless)
I predict Da Vinci will disrupt data and AI.
Leonardo’s lost blockchain manifesto?
Haha, indeedy.Pascal’s little triangle and Bayes decision trees provide the basis for the BITS in the blockchain.Meanwhile, Da Vinci will provide Information Enlightenment.It’s a “New Renaissance” where Design meets Scientific Sense-making with Industrial Engineering”.
I predict Leonardo Dicaprio will win an Oscar
I’m working in a tangent space to this. Interested in your diagrams. Diagrams rock!
I’ve got to say it, these are the AVC posts that I absolutely love. The ones that get my blood going and that make me want to do push-ups. Fuck-it, I am going to do 20 right now! Thanks!
The Vibration Plate – future of exercise:https://www.youtube.com/wat…We have one at my gym. It’s out of this world. Shake it up, baby.
that is amazing – I want to try one!
Stamford Chelsea Piers has 2 of them. I warm up on it, and wrap-up stretch on it after my workout. At first, I was like, this….?http://cdn2.hellogiggles.co…But after doing it, I was totally invigorated!
wait – Stamford Chelsea Piers?!?!?!
Oh, dude. You are so jealous and you don’t even know it.http://fitness.chelseapiers…EPIC. And note the hand dryers ;-)Those are just the pics of the new fitness center. There’s also an Olympic size pool, 2 ice skating rinks, 8 tennis courts, basketball courts, 2 soccer fields, a climbing wall, trampoline room, batting cages, 10 squash courts….ALL INSIDE!!!!Hahahahahahahahahaahh
good lord! wow!Best looking pilates studio I’ve ever seenbut HORRIBLE choice of hand dryers
Ha! Don’t panic; Lots of towels.
You are guilty of #gymporn
guilty as charged
Nice–used to have a place like that near when I lived in Palo Alto.Now–I”m thrilled to have an Equinox a 15 minute walk from the apt.
Hey, it’s not the size of your gym equipment that matters.It’s how you use it. 😉
I use very little equipment except for squats.Floor exercises (think high school wrestling stuff), yoga balls for triangulated pushups and core mostly.Most of the new gyms are more about having space on the floor to move more than stuff.Be nice to be able to swim though.
Yes, lots of floor activity at my gym…and classes….treadmills
inspired–gonna do mine earlier today.holiday drink?happy to gather a few locals and tip a glass.
Today’s my last day in the city until January. How about after the 5th?
Sure although I have my eye on January as both a beach (Tulum) and ski (Col) month if I can swing it with work.
That sounds really incredible. I have a perfectly manicured cricket pitch outside my office where we play touch rugby twice a week – but i miss squash a lot!
Nice! I don’t know the first thing about cricket.
dude. it’s right on the Darien border. yes, you’re jealous.
Go! Go! Go! Go!
funny, i’m going to start the One Hundred Pushup Challenge http://www.hundredpushups.com/. An entrepreneur I’m working with just sent me Pushup bar bells as a gift today.
hunches / things I am learning about:1) microbes and the microbiome, and the big data tied to it will unlock things about us that we never expected. 2) blocktrail – using blockchain for audit trails and ‘consensus’ interfaces will change the way we negotiate and memorialize agreements. 3) the rise of the unified notification tray, card interfaces (the un-user interface), and JSON slugs for anything and everything.
I like your numbering scheme. Is that the future of math?As regards microbiome, is that just a gut feeling?
i fixed the number sequence one second after I posted. Check the blocktrail. Disqus must be broken. Glad you had the guts to reply.
Yes, an extensive blocktrail audit shows you are quick to correct your numerical errors.
Hi Bruce, after years of gum issues and hunting the states for a research oriented periodontist, I’m putting a team together to do a mouth biome study. I’ll let you know when it gets on kickstarter.
From your gums to my hearing. I saw your link to http://ubiome.com/ a few posts ago. Great stuff.
1 is going to get interesting – we’ve actually done very early first generation stuff around microbe (insulin production) but not very deep stuff, and life gets interesting when you really hack genetics
Big up for unified notification tray. I need one of those in my life which works well.
My personal prediction is similar but organized in a slightly different way:- Decentralization – Personal mesh, blockchain etc. are all part of the trend of moving away from centralized servers and organizations.- IoT – Wearable is just one aspect. When pretty much all devices are connected wirelessly in real time, something interesting is bound to happen. We have already seen some impact of this trend but it is just the beginning.- New OS = messaging apps – iOS, Android etc. will become even more “invisible” and people would congregate around the new lowest common denominator, i.e. messaging apps where other apps can build on top of. However, my definition of messaging is slightly broader that I would include apps like Instagram that I would consider as image based messaging.
messaging is compelling not just because it enables a new kind of communication, but also because it is a platform in and of itself.More likely is that the messaging services become so dominant that they render the underlying mobile platform unimportant.Repeating my comment from yesterday in the context of today’s discussion.The whole universal reality stack, from top to bottom, in nothing more than an evolving neural-net entanglement of messages(synchronization-signalling) between atom/cells/people/processes incorporating unlimited level-mixing and crosstalk, features now available at the social organization level.Messaging(synchronization-signalling) is the original/universal foundational meta-platform on which all past, present and future platform instantiations rest, be they natural and technological platforms.I’d make the case that closer attention to bio-mimicry could pay big dividend here.Applying bio-mimicry to “Messaging as Platform” implies a loosely-coupled, highly-granular, decentralized, recombinant, FEDERATED conversation/messaging construction-kit. A conversation-construction-kit that allows for function-based, custom-built, messaging-conversations to be constructed around the old universal intent standards of- Who is it about?- What happened?- When did it take place?- Where did it take place?- Why did it happen?all wrapped up with a tool-set of crowdsources and/or personal metrics-fuctions targeted at collective/personal visualization and governance controls over all manner of personal/social/commerce/political affairs.It’s called CELLULAR communications for a reason – No ?
The blockchain will be a big technology going forward, but in terms of “epochs” it’s more an extension of the internet than an epoch in of itself. What you’ll see is new internet apps built on it, in a burst of creativity similar to when public API’s and AJAX were new and enabled “Web 2.0”. Same for wearables and the “Internet of Things”; it’s more an extension of the mobile era than a new one of itself.Personally, what I believe will drive the next “epoch” will be cheap, powerful AI. Not in a singularity-cometh sort of way, but in applications that go light years beyond what current apps offer in terms of understanding context and language, and helping with what we’re trying to do.
what is an example of an app that goes light years beyond what current apps offer (from a conceptual standpoint). I just haven’t been able to get myself on the AI train no matter how hard I try.
I’m liking bet 3. We are staking the same outcome. For a ‘mobile first’ generation that is looking for more intuitive & compartmentalised socialising it makes perfect sense.We have an ad product (in kik) that is user-powered, just for messaging apps.Every single messaging app we meet wants the same thing – a user-powered non-interruptive ad monetisation model which helps (not hinders) apps to continue to offer a great UX. (And helps them drive ARPU).In early 2014 people (in the ad industry) thought our product was super-niche. In 2015 we think that will all change. Anyone betting against ~2.5-3bn messaging app MAUs by EOY 2015?
Hey Ben, how would you define a messaging app?
Mobile.2bn today people own Smartphones, 4bn very soon. More specifically, what will be the interaction model, especially when mobile is the only computer in the consumer’s life.Open Android. Or more specifically, what services displace Google services.On Demand Services. The continued rise of Uber for X. Our mobiles are now wands for the real world.Mobile Security. Everything’s hack able. With mobile, security is less lets about salacious corporate emails, but your intimate photos, your blood pressure, your credentials.Very Personal Computing The things we rely on every day, are now an Internet Thing. WATCH is less interesting as a wearable, and more fascinating for what interaction model will emerge (especially when combined with HealthKit, Homekit)Trustworthy ThingsSoon everything from your hotel door, to your credit card, to your home alarm will become an Internet Thing. This requires an astonishing amount of trust. Blockchain has a fascinating role here
definitely will be the next hot vacation spot
In the future
I am still bullish on data (big and small), artificial intelligence, and software making us smarter. It is amazing to see how far products like Siri and Watson are going along with the Google Car. I think it’s harder to see a 10x year over year improvement but honestly I’ll take a maturing technology that is nearly at the tipping point over a 10x moonshot any day of the week.I saw an article that talked about how Elon Musk is taking a beating on SolarCity and Tesla due to declining oil prices. I think he ends up winning in the end on those. We’re seeing solar units becoming more efficient (http://www.foxnews.com/scie… which is increasingly good news on winning the price war (http://www.nytimes.com/2014…. Musk is also building the battery systems for both buildings and the electric cars. The fact that iPhone or MacBook have large battery lives now change how we use them, and now we’re there with electric cars and soon with buildings. It’s a game of inches.Also I’m excited for ultra wideband LTE deployments by T-Mobile and others. Honestly I think that T-Mobile’s competitive moves along with some of these public wi-fi deployments are going to really open up the power of the Internet to populations that haven’t been using them.
Within the next five years Large retailers will catch up to Amazon at least in their offerings (delivery).
1, platforms continue to win beef with nation states2. more integrated networks3. fragmentation of the internet; i.e. “multiple internets”4. fast lanes5. virtual currency/digital currency/cryptocurrency — money that does not come from the nation-states6. virtual reality/augmented reality/3D7. production and flow of wealth from west to east8. mesh networks 9. wearables/implantables10. machine learning/predictive analytics in every app
Ah well. I would say an app that has some kind of comms as a core function. So it could be video, doesn’t have to be chat. Could even be voice. And it, by either copying your contacts, or by creating tight user circles by invitation, defines your circle of meaningful buddies/loved ones (ie people you communicate with regularly and in some cases frequently). The value of this of course is by definition the app will host many of the most important people in your life, hence its importance.
Our entry into this fray is Andromium OS. This hardware-software solution turns Android smartphones into full desktop computers with the addition of a connection to a TV/monitor and a keyboard. The videos on the Kickstarter page show more- https://www.kickstarter.com…This can be life-changing for millions worldwide.
glad I watched the video.. interesting. best of luck with your campaign.
that could be awesome and way overdue.
Fred, I would substitute “phone cloud” for your “personal mesh” – the difference is the phone serves as the often invisible gateway to the broader cloud IMHO
i like the word mesh better than cloudi get your point on the phone, but i hate the word phonei barely use the phone feature on my device
You mean phone as voice pstn communications?
yupthat’s what the word phone means to me
got it – similar issue with Apple branding their upcoming personal wearable computer a “watch”.
Wow !What an incredible “summary with fidelity” historical framing of consumer computing evolution.
Robots. More personal robots that are not roombas doing things.
Looking outside your framework, I think Reddit is part of what’s next.Reddit is the best tool to gain traffic and leverage your position in the long tail. I can say that Hacker News also is a good traffic source but it is a lottery if you make it in the first page or not and it is specialized around startups. In Reddit I can consistently make it to the top.I don’t know of any other site who can bring this kind of traffic. Ranking systems like app stores will be part of the past someday. For the future search economy it is key to give a voice to a lot of offerings in the long tail that now need to invest a lot of insane resources to be heard.
Insects and fungus as the predominant source of protein.Real time everything- waiting will be eliminated -(big data + quantum computing + predictive analytics)Cyber warfareDigital telepathy
Connectivity is central, not only mesh/ wearable with current networks, but ubiquitous connection through multiple channels.
Great post.I guess another way to ask the question is: What do customers want next? What itches do they want to scratch ?Consumers around the world want to accomplish a number of core jobs in their lives using personal devices.1.Converse and communicate with friends and family 2.Discover and engage with new people with common interests. 3.Smart engagement with suppliers /vendors 4.Pay anyone, anywhere and any amount simply – In real life and online.5.Find the best products / suppliers for any job I want to get done 6.Discover and buy the products, services and experiences I need and want 7.Manage my home and all sensors within8. Manage and track my health and wellness9.Find the most popular content on anything at anytime10.Discover new stuff through intelligent curation and mediation11. Personalized learning12. Find and enjoy great entertainment tailored to my tastes. 13. Find dates and spouses14. Make it easy to contribute to charity and raise for a cause15. Invest my savings, Manage my finances16. Find short and long term work…None of this is new. Indeed, most of them are fundamental human needs. But, what has really changed is the following.a) consumers want to do these things mobile-first. b) the next 2 B smartphone users in emerging markets are mobile-only. c) consumers more concerned about privacy and security of their personal data, and the role of the middle-men who are extracting unreasonable profits by selling their data to advertisersd) Online-offline integration: Pushing buttons on apps moves people and things in real world.The test for new technologies that claim to be the next big thing is if they can help the user accomplish any of these jobs significantly better than status quo. Or if they can fundamentally rethink how apps are developed, found, used and monetized.
Interesting article! There is no mention of artificial intelligence (AI)/ machine learning though.AI has been making big advances recently. It has the potential of being an epoch of its own or facilitate work/productivity killer apps for the mobile epoch.
I didn’t think of mentioning this yesterday, but the insistence of the media – both established (NYT) and new (Gawker) – to publish falsehoods that support their preferred narratives has been extraordinary to see recently, the UVA hoax being the latest example.One of the two bloggers who first raised the possibility that it was a hoax (Steve Sailer: http://www.unz.com/isteve/h… ) shakes a tin cup for a living. What’s next? How about a new media organization that reports news with a bit of skepticism and fact-checking thrown in? I mentioned to Mark Suster on Twitter that he ought to start a conversation with Sailer. Maybe there’s a market for it.
Hi my name is Doreen Clemens I know I just popped up out of nowhere my major is in health services/business management. I actually have a press release and from Covington’s covington’s Hutu and January as well as I am a member of Who’s Who among executives and professionals. I have the knowledge I was called to be the perfect storm. I totally agree with everything everyone of you say. The year 2015 is going to be quite amazing. I intend to be one of those people that help make the United States a better place no matter what it takes. From what I can see everything is pretty much set up an alignment perfectly for a major change. I’m just glad we didn’t have World War III..
honestly I don’t care if you include me in your conversations I already know a lot more than you think. I just wanted amazing that someone actually thanked me and took conversations to join in but people in this World are so superficial and forget where they come from. One day you were right where I was getting ready to just explode to the entire world. As much as you want as many becomes public I will let it die off I keep my name only known to who I want to know it. How do you have a nice day. By the way I know everyone of you were so busy you don’t eat right make sure you take vitamins or take that airborne immune booster but the antioxidant keep you very healthy. Doreen Clemens
I know you all are so busy at work but you really should watch the news there’s been a major bust across the whole nation with narcotics doctors and pharmacies. And also big news on Cuba….
Interesting article! There is no mention of artificial intelligence (AI)/ machine learning though.AI has been making big advances recently. It has the potential of being an epoch of its own or facilitate work/productivity killer apps for the mobile epoch.
I liked the epoch framework Ben gave, but am unconvinced that the current mobile epoch winners are already here. Uber and sharing don’t seem so core, considering the leaders in currency, identity, POS, AR yet to be seen – and clearly part of the mobile epoch. Also I think separating mobile and wearables into different epochs is artificial, they are the same.
GRIMLOCK DISAGREE MESSAGING WON YET.