Followup Friday: The Results of the Apple Watch Followup Survey
Here are the results of the survey we did on AVC yesterday (click on the image to see it in a larger format). These are very good numbers for the Apple Watch.
Here are the results of the survey we did on AVC yesterday (click on the image to see it in a larger format). These are very good numbers for the Apple Watch.
Comments (Archived):
Those are surprising results.Is there a chance that some of the high profile people in tech who are publicly negative on the Apple watch are suffering from overblown expectations?
OR under-blown imagination ?
are u on twitter? id like to follow you
Directionally it’s good for Apple, although #2 is a potential red flag.What was your conclusion? Are you still sitting on the fence?
Be careful with this direction William.Apple is not a tech company filling a market need. They don’t fix problems.They are a CE company marketing like core fashion. What we want is what they want to build, not what we need.I’m not sure that the question of ‘changed your life’ is the right one.How about, does it make you happy? Does it make you feel better about your relationship to how you live?
I hear you & was echoing what the numbers say, on the surface. Yes, part of the apple products is that feeling & emotional attachment. Almost like buying art: is it really useful in the functional sense? No. But it makes you feel good.
being happy is the strongest buying drive in the world my friend.it has spread across buying channels like a wave covering the food, the exercise, the wellness, and all of our expendable income spending.Which btw in the states is somewhere way north of $2T a year. Over $20B in yoga alone and the lions share of that in apparel.companies who don’t come to grips with who they are and the core value of the brand connection they have with their potential markets are stacking the deck against them.never been more powerful or more critical than today.with the % of my time that i’ve allocating for advising almost all of it is addressing the relationship between who we are as a company and how that translates into the brand we are viewed as by the market.
The old bromide never changes:- saves me money- gets me the girl- makes me look cool with the fellasSome variation of those drivers applies everywhere.
yes but there is a change that is deeper think.what makes the wellness market what it is?its about self empowerment, the joy that comes with the knowledge and choice to take charge of our bodies.strong and self aware, is i have to say the new skinny. seriously.
While I am all about the wellness (coffee predilection notwithstanding) I have to poke at “take charge of our bodies.” 20-ish years of yoga practice didn’t stop an accident from taking me down a peg.”Wellness” practices probably helped me to recover, but lesson learned: when it comes to our bodies/health, we can influence things positively, but can’t really take charge. One of my oldest friends — a neuro-oncologist — has often reminded me that we don’t get to call all of the shots…
we are not in absolute control of fate of course but we are in control of how we address our health.how we live. the doctors we choose. the advice we choose to follows.what is clear is that if you think that all doctors are equal and all advice is gospel you are running head first into a wall at some time.with you in charge you make these decisions and keep asking till answers make sense.that is how I meant it though not very well articulated.
Yup!The prime directive = SurvivalExtensions = security —> control —> happiness
One of the oldest and most effective tools. Marketing is a lot more than advertizing, but the point holds…https://www.youtube.com/wat…
Nothing beats the last line in that clip.
You. Are. OK.
I take that back – the last line in this clip beats the last line in that clip:https://vimeo.com/20736616
but what is happiness? it’s the moment before you need more happiness.https://www.youtube.com/wat…
FASHION
The other day you said you don’t own bitcoin as a currency speculator…or something like that…but that you own it because to understand the blockchain platform, the apps built on it, how it’s used as a currency, etc is all needed to be a smart investor in that sector. (I am paraphrasing your remarks from the NY Public Library event the other evening).Why is the Apple Watch any different????!! You don’t need to wear it (everyday or at all) to appreciate what it does and can do for the wearables sector. Buy it, tinker with it, and then donate it or auction it off to charity. Hmm?
I think that the bitcoin thing was in a context of an investor in bitcoin.Who said Fred is an investor in AAPL?
Not the same. I like you; I don’t like your analogy.Think “sector”, not “company”.To understand cyber-currency and/or the blockchain, he owns bitcoins.And so I ask, to understand wearables, why not own a wearable?(And it just so happens that the wearable getting all the buzz in the media and on this blog is….(wait for it)….the Apple Watch.Ergo, buy the watch.
I don’t think Fred / First Union made any investment wearables.
I never said he did. Nor do I think that’s relevant to the point I’m making.
Well, the Bitcoin investments are in companies related to Bitcoin & its blockchain (he’s not investing in its core), same as investing potentially in the watch ecosystem… or wanting to better understanding it.
Re: “You don’t need to wear it (everyday or at all) to appreciate what it does”.I wonder if that is true Jim. Maybe you don’t need to wear it everyday, but when you do – you might need to wear it for several hours at a stretch to get a proper appreciation of what it can mean to you. Which is the difference from the ‘owning bitcoin’ analogy.I was thinking a corollary question to question 1 could have been “If you do, how many hours a day do you wear it” ? (I don’t have a presumption on the answer, am curious what the respondents would have said….)
Agreed. I think he could wear it as he tries it out at home. He doesn’t need to west it out and about, but it wouldn’t hurt to do so to get a good sense of the potential of wearables.
The vast majority of early adopters wear it all day long. That’s what you need to do to “understand” it I think.
Thanks.
Buy it, tinker with it, and then donate it or auction it off to charity. Hmm?Why is there always the need for ‘youse people to invoke “donate to charity” to try and make something more acceptable or prod a cow to do something? [1] I mean we are talking about buying an Apple watch here. We aren’t talking about “can you pose for Playboy?”.As far as “????!!” you forgot (along the lines of Playboy) to mention Fred’s lust and desire to get Google Glass.Agree with your parent point obviously. And if I had an opportunity to make money selling marijuana even I would actually try the stuff (which I have never done).[1] How about instead of donating to charity, if Fred isn’t 100% satisfied, he can run over the watch with his Tesla. That would be a statement that would be noticed. “VC Fred Wilson see no future in Apple Watch and runs it over with his Tesla!”.
“Run over with his Tesla”… What, are you high? Oh, never mind.
I’d be a great straight man. I didn’t even know that all of those 70’s songs were about drugs. Part of that was not hearing the lyrics (which I called “words”) and part was just not being clued into the culture. My wife is younger. Her parents were hippies. They would have pot parties while she was growing up. I think I just learned from her last year what “420” was.
What’s 420?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wik…I use it all the time now. There is a painter that does work for me and he seems like he must smoke pot. So I call him “the 420 painter” instead of “Tom the painter” because he is laid back and lackadaisical. Ditto for a realtor and an architect that I know. Instead of their name when I talk about them I simply tell my wife “420 realtor” or “420 architect”. I find the island time attitude annoying actually.
I have never heard this term! Thanks.
Oh the things we can learn here …
you guys are funny
Your drug jokes crack me up. (see what I did there?)
Perhaps a better form would be…Your drug jokes … crack … me up. Btw, as early as the 80’s I use to describe the practice of putting only a few expensive things in your wardrobe mixed with relatively cheap things as “cutting your wardrobe”. Someone had a necklace which was a razor blade. I asked them why. They told me it means “cut the cocaine” so I thought “interesting concept” and used it from then on.
I try not to make the jokes too obvious.
Have to say that it is more enjoyable when the joke is figured out rather than when there is a blunt off.
Smoke signals too subtle?
Subtle gives a high
😉
You seem to be on a roll
Run over it, record it, put it on youtube … that might go viral
ive got a cannabis cold brew coffee in the SoCal dispensary markets, 100% organic and amazing! if you ever get to LA and wanna “actually try the stuff,” I’d be happy to load you up with free samples to say thanks for all i’ve learned from your comments over the years and make that happen! :)as for selling, i think we both know there’s a lot of money to be made in this! http://www.huffingtonpost.c…marijuana is likely to pop long before BTC, even though I’m equally bullish on both the value and transformational power of both :)fwiw and I say it because I think you’ll like this part, I look at my venture as a way OOTM call on ever-increasing tolerance/legalization.
Interesting. And agreed. Pot will be big
Let me repeat that:to say thanks for all i’ve learned from your comments over the years and make that happen!You see to me that is a drug, thanks.But let me ask you a question. If I tried this, would it solve a problem for me or would it just be something that I would enjoy? And if I enjoyed it how would it benefit my life?
>If I tried this, would it solve a problem for me or would it just be something that I >would enjoy?I am so beyond happy that these are the particular questions that you ask. To begin, I created this product by scratching my own itch to quote the great Paul Graham. Now that it exists, I firmly believe that I am living in the future (more Paul Graham) because it turns out to be a phenomenal problem-solver, especially for the near-future.The way that I explain the drink to people is “creative productivity.” Just looking at the research of people like Dan Pink, it is clear to me that the future belongs primarily to innovators aka “creatives.” The workplace tools of the primarily serve the left-brain and are good for GTD.The future however keeps being created by people where just GTD doesn’t work–just look at Fred’s miss on AirBNB. These are (good) weird ideas.cannabis sativa is a phenomenal phenomenal tool for (good) weird ideas. The mind just begins wandering and various pattern-matching algorithms start running and you begin connecting dots that somehow you had overlooked. Someone like you who saw what was about to happen with domain names before everyone else will obviously understand this experience.The interesting thing is that with this tool, it is replicable. Especially for people prone to creativity or being ahead of the pack.Now, the downside. cannabis sativa tends to create “420 people” and “talkers.” “I’m the idea guy, man!” etc etc etc.As we all know, coffee is the opposite. A-types, movers, shakers, etc. Interestingly, caffeine is also known to be one of the things you can take to come down a bit if you get “too high.” One can look this up, and it’s not just because it’s a stimulant because nicotine will get you more high.So basically, these two things interact in an interesting way.My experience as a human guinea pig (pretty awesome human guinea pig to be huh?!) is that when you combine these two, you enter a flow state of “creative productivity.” You are not held down by to-do lists and calendars similar to the “420 people” BUT you are ready to get all of your ideas immediately into action like the “A-types.”Now, cold brew coffee imo is about to take over the entire world of coffee especially among the normals because of its near non-existent acidity. All of the problems associated with coffee (jitteriness and acid reflux come to mind) basically go entirely out the window when coffee is cold brewed. Why? Ask someone smarter than me. All I know is that my experience and the experience of many others bears this out.In short, for those of us now who are fortunate enough to for whatever reason be able to generally do whatever we feel like doing each day (someone like you who regularly talks about which Porsche they like and why is certainly in this position no matter what else is going on in their life), this drink becomes such a tremendous boon for combining the 2 most important things:1) *What* should I be working on?and2) *How* do I get myself to actually do it?Basically, the dream would be it turns all of us into our own little Richard Feynmans: playing around with dinner plates as frisbees and eventually following it down the rabbit hole to the discovery of quantum electrodynamics. Or Uber Travis’s. “wouldn’t it be cool if SF had taxis that you got by tapping on your phone?”So yes, I firmly believe it would solve a problem for you, even if it’s not a problem you are currently aware that you have! In that way, it’s similar imo to your position on how the apple watch is going to eliminate passwords, something people don’t even realize would change their lives much for the better! 🙂
I’m switching to cold press coffee at home because of this comment.As to your elixir, I think it’s a wonderful idea. Best of luck!
So am I! I’ve been enduring the acid effects of coffee because my productivity goes through the floor without it. Let’s see if this changes it.
“Running on time” perhaps?
that’s what i do with my iphone. maybe i will do that. but i feel like you can’t really understand something by tinkering with it. you need to use it
I should probably get one
And to use it, you have to have an iPhone.
Use it if investor.Tinker with it if developer.Use and tinker with it if inventor who wants to make killer app that makes lots of $$$.
OK, so buy it, use it for a week, have an epiphany about wearables and mesh networks, and then stop wearing/using it. Experiment over.Saying you don’t like wearing things on your wrist is irrelevant. It’s not about you or how you feel. It’s about your appreciation of a product category and its potential.
Fred isn’t usually a troll…except when it comes to Apple.Fred loves the populist stance that it was WRONG! WRONG! that he couldn’t use Apple on whatever phone he wanted in 2007. And soon, on a blog post on this very domain it will be wrong! WRONG! that he can’t use an Apple Watch with whatever phone he wants.All of that is to say that I have the under when it comes to over/under 2016 before Fred owns, and blogs about owning, an Apple Watch.
He will buy an Apple Watch…I feel it building.
#truth
You know, there one missing dimension in the survey, and that’s doing cross-tabular cuts, which would give you more insights in understanding what’s behind these answers.For eg, if there were 2-3 additional questions about age, gender or other variables, then you could get insights like “Of those that said it didn’t change their life, 80% were over 35 or xyz characteristic, etc “
Sounds like an SPSS job to me. There is a fun weekend…
surveymonkey or other survey tools do that automatically for you now. pick a question, click cross-tab, choose by x y z. that’s it.
Yep…was being allegorical. I agree with your thoughts on deeper correlations was all. Have a great weekend William
Fred, are these numbers affecting your view of it and its potential as a catalyst for wearables? Btw we started on our Wristly panel a classic NPS question about it and interim results are much more nuanced. Apple has still a lot of work ahead.
expecting a v1.0 wearable to “materially change peoples lives” especially when its an adjunct to your phone is tough to expect IMHO.Hopefully, the next watch can have dialling / receiving capabilities off the iPhone.
An intriguing question….the answer either way would not be very predictive to the market success of an Apple product…
Interesting results, but probably anecdotal. Sample size is pretty skewed since the people that read this blog are very early adopters. I agree with William, given my assumed sample if the watch hasn’t changed their life-then the rest of it might be confirmation bias.
I am going to disagree with this. I don’t think early adopters are more likely to be satisfied with the purchase after the fact in relation to Q1,3, and 4 than non-early adopters. In fact the plague of being an early adopter is all the tech and stuff I buy or get as gifts and don’t use or enjoy that end up in the graveyard.
How much are you spending on tech a year as early adopter?
Either too little or too much. Not sure yet. Depends on the year though. Usually I buy a couple things a year.
I see your survey and raise you this onehttp://qz.com/410027/apple-…
When I looked into the methodology behind this I really wanted to know what kind of crazy person would let a survey firm monitor the purchase receipts in their inbox?
Loads of startups tried that plan too. Not sure any still around
does that mean almost all were ordered in the first day?
apparently.US: 2.5m units in total since launch. 1.5m of them on first day.approx 30,000 sales per day.apple launch hype machine clearly very effective.
Also curious FW if your unwillingness to try AW is holding? I know you’ve said you loathe jewelry. Given your clear interest in AW wouldn’t it be worth trying for a couple of weeks? FWIW, I also dislike jewelry. I haven’t worn a watch in years. But I find the AW (Sport) almost unnoticable. Given how useful it is, benefit far outweighs desire to be unadorned
Check Google Analytics: A lot of website visits from Cupertino yesterday?
surprised? i am not. indeed the thing is not perfect but overall quite good! you have to wear it to know it. Fred i already see you trying to buy one 🙂
Interesting to me that more people skipped #3 than any other question, especially #4. You would think there would be more skips with each question. Thanks for sharing
I don’t want to be curmudgeonly ( “An ill-tempered person full of resentment and stubborn notions”), heck I even had to look it up to check the spelling BUT…ANYONE who can say “A wristwatch has changed my life in a material way” might consider the following:A cancer diagnosis is material, a new born-child is material, a new job might be, but something the marketing people want you to lug around on your wrist – REALLY ?Exception – if it can warn of diabetic sugar spikes, heart murmurs stuff like that – it becomes material (to some)otherwise it is immaterial to enjoying life – otherwise how have so many of us survived so happily for so long without them ?It may be that I have the fashion sense of an uinspired roofing tile – but that’s fine with me
we look at the world from opposite viewpoints it appears.what people want to make them feel better about themselves and in control is the most important thing there is.that is how the market works. that is how people buy.
Spot on.Many people struggle to understand why we “need” a smartwatch. I think they are missing the point: watches, by definition, are not needed by anyone. That includes traditional watches from companies like Fossil and smartwatches from companies like Apple. The **only** thing that matters is that people want them. And, in this regard, I can’t think of another company better than Apple at making us want things. This is why Apple is so important to the entire smartwatch category — they are the catalyst that triggers massive growth in this segment.One other point: all watches (smart or not) in the $250 – $500 price category are not purchased because they are “needed”. Nor are they purchased because they last forever. Watch purchases in this segment are both discretionary & disposable. People will buy the one they love this year….and will buy another one next year. That’s how the fashion accessory market works.
I think it’s just a question of perspective. Can’t there be varying degrees of “change in a material way”?Further, I’m not sure that your point about people surviving without things happily makes sense to me. People survived without cars for a long time and they were happy. However, now that they’re out there, and now that I have one, taking it away would impact my happiness. Watch < Car < Cancer diagnoses
Yes – I guess this is balanced – and I guess my world view may have been off-balance ( I read thise just after reading an artcle http://www.theguardian.com/… )In that context our need “to be in control” etc (which I must admit to as well) is sometimes a little revolting / entitled
Such a heartbreaking story. I’ll grant you that in my belief, the majority of those who purchase an Apple Watch will be guilty of not keeping perspective with stories like these, and will therefore allow something like a watch impact their happiness to an embarrassing degree. “What?? You don’t have an Apple Watch?! Ugh, I couldn’t live without mine”. That kind of shit.
Thanks – balance restored – back to worrying if I can find a good movie for tonight !!! ;)I do think its good to look over the fence now and then and be thankful ! – I also think it is OK to enjoy what you can without harming others (so I should wind my neck in a little)
I think it’s actually part of a well adjusted and content personality to get pleasure from the small things in life and feel that they have “changed your life in a material way”.
Exception – if it can warn of diabetic sugar spikes, heart murmurs stuff like that – it becomes material (to some)That “stuff like that” list will inevitably grow to encapsulate almost every consumer at some level/use-case. Thus incrementally transforming your (to some) into (nearly everybody).
.The results suggest a positive outcome for Apple. But then the AVC.com crowd is not typical of the greater market.Perhaps more insightful? Perhaps more insular? Gadgeteers?I personally think the Apple Watch is going to do just fine but will not spark a global revolution. I think Apple is a very good “game day” company able to pivot and change as the market whispers in its ear.This product is about other things than just its tech. It is “cool” and cool is a big thing. Cool sells.Since when did selling 30MM of anything become a failure?JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…
without a doubt what JayZ and JT feel about it is a lot more important than what we think to its success.
Exactly. What I call “dead body parts on ebay”. Something that gives free mainstream media attention to your product or service.Along those lines, I remember the day that Oprah got on board twitter.Interesting take a look and look at the graphic attached:http://bits.blogs.nytimes.c…Edit: Oprah’s first tweet was around April 2009.
30MM at an average price of $500 makes Apple the world’s largest watch company. In it’s first year in the category. Not a bad start.
“Cool” is a very big thing. The image below was created in 2004 when my partner and I (then with Fossil) first started exploring the ‘connected’ fashion accessory market. The goal was to get into the ‘circle of cool’. The strategy was far more about being cool, sexy; not functional.Side note: cool has a short half-life.
Fred, it’s interesting to me that you’re willing to take the leap on the Blockchain as a disruptive platform to enable a new category of businesses to emerge — but you’re not willing to consider on on-the-wrist consumer electronics form factor as a similar enabling breakthrough. Very different in nature and scope, but in many ways they are similar bets.Screen in my pocket. I pull it out to use it. Screen in my pocket. I pull it out to use it. Screen in my pocket. I pull it out to use it… Screen on my wrist? Easy. Consumers like easy.I am not in the mobile app world at the moment, but I have been tinkering with a business concept that has a very meaningful use case in an on-the-wrist form factor. The back end app would be in the phone, but the output of the app would only really be useful on the wrist. I’m not sure it would be nearly as compelling physically on a phone.Of course, this is all in my head right now, so it’s not anywhere close to market-proven. But if I can think of this — and I’m not the most creative cat, and not even in the game (neither designer nor developer) — then I suspect there will be compelling use cases created. People will get comfortable with the form factor.Hats off to you for “calling it” early and keeping the debate going. Great respect for what you do here on AVC.
it’s the “on the wrist” part i’m not so down with. i like the idea of a wearable operating system that you can choose to adopt via any device. that’s more “organic” like bitcoin is
Are you waiting/hoping for an implant wearable type?
i think i’d like a necklace
that’s so interesting, a wearable OS. do you think in your gut that this is where either android itself or at least google is headed?
Someone is bound to deliver something that might work for you using the public-now specs etc https://developer.apple.com…
This is the right link, Bernard:* https://developer.apple.com…We had the conversations about wearables 3 years ago? I’m yet to see or experience the wearable that makes me go, “WOW.”
it was more like 5 years Twain … time flies… I actually really like my Apple Watch – haptic it is …
Watches weigh down my wrist and catch on the edges of my MacBook when I’m coding.I love Apple products but not watches as a wearable.It was 4 years ago according to emails…so halfway between our memories, haha.The emotion functions we discussed are implemented in Apple Watch’s messaging very nicely.I still think biometrics are interesting but not the missing piece we need to solve the ‘Holy Grail’ for tech.
A wearable thin client essentially. It could take many form factors.I’ve attached a screen grab of the first 50 trademarks (only 3 of 50 are granted so far) that Apple has applied for. I’m not seeing “necklace” (I did search for necklace) but they could of course have filed it under a stealth company.There are all sorts of interesting things you can learn from the USPTO database. I’ve only scratched the surface.
V. Interesting, thanks.
Slick Rick vs. AVC!
Resistance is futile as dictated by physiologic/perceptual ergonomics 🙂
There is a Machine Intelligence OS in R&D that could be adapted to any device (mobile or wearable) and it’s not from Apple, Google, MS et al.It’s not touch-based either and will likely take another 12-15 months to be market deployed.Integrate that with the right Natural Language OS and all the physio-sensors in mobile devices and…That would be as close to engineering our natural intelligence into technology as we can get.The “no-stack” consumer plays could then be built on top of that core.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wik…
Everybody loves it except it makes no material difference in their lives!
same can be said for so many things in life…
Be patient now !AppleWatch’s ecosystem/use-cases, like Rome will not be built a day.
The most telling result is (2.) Has it changed your life in a material way = Yes: 52%, No: 48%.If something doesn’t change our lives materially…it’s a fad, an experiment. And bear in mind that AVC community skews to smart, tech-savvy, first adopters so if they’re skeptical about the material impact then that’s not a positive for Apple.The result that would be useful to dig deeper into is, “WHY do you love it more?” These are the people who are then recommending it to friends.I’m not persuaded that Apple has got it right with its Watch proposition. Not just in terms of needing to tether it to an iPhone but also in terms of price points and range availability.They’d have been better just to have 3 rather than 20+ options.Also, their Web lead needs to get their front-end developers to fix the bugs in their Javascript that’s causing page loads not to happen and error messages like “This page doesn’t exist.”I know the page exists because if I click “refresh” or a few links to then route back to the same page, it loads => not a great Web experience for the user wanting to buy the watch online => lost Apple sales somewhere.As soon as I heard whispers of Apple Pay and its partnership with IBM in the media I said to my friend that Apple would go north of $120 per share. At the time it was around $98 and its previous high had been $104. Today it’s at $132.With Apple Watch, I don’t feel the same instincts as I did about their other strategies and user experience delivery.Meanwhile, Carl Icahn believes each Apple share should be worth $240.APPLE WATCH FOR DEVELOPERS===========================The killer app will make use of the gyroscope, accelerometer, geo-location and voice sensors in ways that are not just about Quantified health & fitness, imo.
It’s to early for that question to be answered honestly. Because the product is not fully fleshed out in terms of what it can do.By the way the number one thing that has changed my life in a material way is probably being able to touch type.
Agree. Still, it not being fully fleshed out is more reason why they shouldn’t have launched all the models of it at once.Oh to be a fly on the wall in those strategy and product design meetings!
they shouldn’t have launched all the models of it at onceSeems so obvious that that was wrong I am wondering what I am missing. They couldn’t have made what appears to be such a big mistake like that without thinking it through.The only explanation that I can think of is that they were so familiar with the product that their brains were easily able to chunk together choices in a way that made those decisions seem clearer than they are for a typical customer. Chunking (the way I describe it, not anyone else’s definition) is similar to how you don’t have to allocate much memory to area codes that you are familiar with. That is, “212” is 1 chunk, not 3 chunks. So to someone to comfortable and familiar already they simply don’t see it from the perspective of a new buyer because they aren’t in their shoes.
We have to bear in mind that the US & UK consumer mindsets aren’t the only ones Apple are considering…Revenues from China for Apple went from $1 billion in 2009 to approx $30 billion in 2014.It would be interesting to see if the Chinese equivalent of Fred has a similar survey and how their results are different…
Perfect as a government issued ID bracelet.One for everyone in China as a free government gift.Due to budget/tax-colection constraint all western citizen will be expected to pay for their own units 🙂
“Chunking” – your not alone !is a key concept in cognition !”Gödel, Escher, Bach” by Douglas R. Hofstadter- 1978A model of cognition, learning & memory is presented, based on the idea of “chunking” thought into recursive sets of analogies. The author meanders over as diverse a set of subjects as ontology, linguistics, basketball, neurological memory & Eugene Onegin. The concepts being discussed are used to weave themselves into a larger, cohesive model of how humans think and learn. Part of the Stanford University Presidential Lectures in the Humanities and Arts.https://onl.librarypass.org…https://www.youtube.com/wat…Skip lengthy intro to 13:20
Ah, yes, Hofstadter who has strong views on where Machine Intelligence has gone amiss:* http://www.popularmechanics…* http://www.theatlantic.com/…
Thanks for that. Watched about 5 minutes (after 13:20) going to try to watch more later.
The killer app for Apple Watch would involve the Machine Intelligence of this:
And there are only a few dozen or so people in the world who’d have any idea how to do it.Some of them are probably in the teams created from the Apple-IBM partnership so we’ll all have to wait and see what happens next.
There is obviously a survivor bias in this data, being those that have already made the decision to buy the watch… Likely rationalizing the purchase (pre or post) based on some of the surveyed concepts. Interesting results none the less.
Interesting results but I think one angle that gets confused in discussions about the Apple watch is the intended customer. Many cite the significant number of unimpressed tech-savvy early adopters as a bad sign for Apple. However, the fact that the company’s marketing moves signal a different user target: Heavy advertising offensive in premium fashion publications like Vogue, pushing appearances by influencers in fashion and pop culture, having the watch sold at luxury retailers globally (in addition to stores), paying attention to regions that have larger populations of visible bling fans and aspirational buyers like China.Tellingly, company execs (Ives & Newson in video below) answer to the why reflects a vagueness about the target user profile: “It was because that we saw that the wrist was a fabulous place for technology”. Sounds like they’re just laying out the starting point and waiting for the users to emerge: They may not be sure of the who, but feel they will be from a different group, hence, the steps above.TL,DR: Apple is that crack dealer that keeps bringing the pipe (PCs, phones, tablets, etc) closer to you, now setting a crack junction on your wrist and seeing which of you will take to it.https://www.youtube.com/wat…
A good list for some 🙂 top 5 reasons not to buy the Apple Watch!http://www.shinyshiny.tv/20…
Isn’t this sample massively skewed since it is entirely comprised of folks who decided to take the plunge and purchase the watch to begin with? Presumably this self-selecting sample would have already pre-qualified the watch based on it’s initial announced features as something they would regularly use and be excited about. The more interesting panel (admittedly difficult to procure) would be the population of Apple lovers, and would-be early adopters of products, who had the means to buy the watch, and either decided to do so or not.
I’m not sure the watch has much use to those without an iPhone 6, so that limits the potential customer a bit.Interested to see if this becomes a product that’s updated annually a la iPhone/iPad, or intermittently like Macs.FWIW, I’ve seen one in the wild (that is Charlottesville, VA).
Every article on the Apple watch intensifies my search to find a great “Stylish and long lasting time piece”. Another interesting survey could include the types of watches that people wear today. I’ve always wanted a Tag Heuer watch, but maybe I have set my sights too low?
If you’ve always wanted one and will derive pleasure from wearing it your sights are not set too low.
Thanks for the thoughts!
Thanks for keeping your pulse on Apple Watch progress. I think measuring over time is a great barometer and helps all of interest understand – a new category launch is a process and it takes time to evaluate impact and value.If Use and SAT numbers continue to remain or grow higher, I would expect scale through the Apple ecosystem, those are really important measures for Apple. Question 2 really is dependent on the App community; they play a huge part in helping to change lives in a material way.
Having a device strapped to my wrist is just annoying to me, it’s just plain bothersome. No amount of functionality is going to make me wear one. So, absolutely no smartwatch for me, especially one from Apple, whose products I often find, are overhyped and overpriced.
“a silly ass fad” — the nytimes, on vaudeville jokes about wristwatches, 1916
In short, my main appreciation comes from glanceability. I’m constantly on the go in my work and personal life. Notifications on my wrist enable me to decide how/when to react must faster than getting my phone, and with less interruption of my current task. The same goes for tidbits of information I need to support my current task. Evernote and Slack have both nailed the best experience to react to and search their content on the wrist.
I hear you, and I’m by no means a fanboy. However anything that cuts time out of my day or enables me to do more is beneficial. I’m more productive in ways that I’ve been able to measure.
Just a pinch in your cheeks apparently does the trick I hear.
It’ll be great if it’s a “watch” in the same way an iPhone is a “phone.” Half the poll respondents said it changed their life, and 70%+ each like it and recommend it. Pretty impressive.Why do you ever need to check a watch? It’s when you have to go somewhere, or do something, or are expecting something. The Watch will be great when it provides intelligent, time-aware, immediately actionable notifications based around those things. I question whether Apple can ever be as good at Google at the algorithmic curation that requires.Personally, I’m waiting for 2.0.
Then you could get computer viruses in your brain
Are you opening to lending or are you going to be a borrower?
I suspect that Fred was just trying to use it as kindling for a further discussion instead of just asking “what does everyone think of the Apple Watch?”. Obviously as a statistical tool it doesn’t come close to passing the smell test in any way shape or form. I voted two times and I don’t even own an Apple Watch yet. <— Sosumi. [1][1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wik…
Ok Charlie – I agree with that. (Also doomed by same preference).
Lol, Shana!I’m particular enough about all the pressure marks and scratches left by watches and rings; can’t stand the thought of computer viruses in brain.
Ha