Fun Friday: Stock Market Prognosticating

The Nasdaq closed 2015 at 5,007. It has fallen 6.4% this week and is now at 4,689.

Here’s the long term history of the Nasdaq:


5,000 is a number with some meaning with this index. It touched that number briefly in the Internet bubble, then built its way all the way back over the past fifteen years.

My question is this:

Let me know what you think in this twitter poll and, as always, in the comments.


Comments (Archived):

  1. jason wright

    what is the Nasdaq a measure of?

    1. Cam MacRae

      hopes and dreams.

      1. jason wright

        not greed and fear?

        1. Cam MacRae

          synonyms, no?

          1. jason wright

            light verses dark.

    2. @mikeriddell62


  2. LIAD

    twitter is so broken. frigging ridiculous.polls launched 3 months ago.twitter released a new mac app this week which finally shows inline media etc and other things it’s mobile apps have had for years, but doesn’t support polls!so those containing them look like this.resulting in asking oneself whether this a a drunken typo or is Fred postulating a NASDAQ-created apocalypse.

    1. jason wright

      voting is the lowest form of common denominator.i prefer comments, of fewer than 140 characters

      1. LIAD

        this question, with defined options suits a poll perfectly.i’ve no issue with that. just twitter’s lackadaisical product

        1. jason wright

          you should be advising David Cameron on the wording of the UK Brexit referendum question.I wonder what kind of bird personifies twitter?

    2. Twain Twain

      Broken and being beaten up by the bankers.Sorry to William but it’s happening as I called it in Oct 2015. Share price is heading towards $20. I gave it 6 months but it’s happening faster.Re. NASDAQ, well … 2016 the bankers will be busy doing M&A on sector consolidations and maybe a few Chapter 11 more than IPOs. Some of those flying horses are simply not going to hit escape velocity.Blockchain plays will need at least another 3-5 years to bed in as seedlings before they have enough volume, velocity and validation to make the bankers pitch for NASDAQ IPOs.Add the global macro conditions (China) and EU legislation on data (=> impacts US techcos’ ability to do and earn revenues from Big Data and AI) … NASDAQ below 5000 by end-2016.

      1. Richard

        expect to see twitter counter wage inflation and over hiring.

        1. Twain Twain

          Expect it to become acquisition target once it hits $17. They’re hiring again (220+ open positions) after cutting 336 in Oct 2015.What will increasing to 10,000 characters make it? Somewhere between FB and Google+, and therefore more attractive as an acquisition target.What does Jack reference in his tweet explaining why they’re exploring ‘Beyond 140’?”Text that could be SEARCHED. Text that could be highlighted.” That last bit sounds like they’re taking a bit out of playbook of Medium (Evan’s product).Product-Me gets Twitter’s quandary. Once a product originator loses ownership of their product and incoherency-inconsistency creeps into the product (from on-boarding through to monetizing existing data collected because Product Leads keep changing and taking it into conflicting directions), it’s hard to unpick those previous stitches in the product knit and re-knit the design.Finance-Me can already see the M+A bankers running the numbers.@fredwilson:disqus — optimist but pragmatist. The light could be that of White Knight acquirer.

    3. fredwilson

      “It is darkest right before the dawn” the optimist

      1. LIAD

        ok.if we’re going down that road…’What is to give light must endure burning.’ – Victor Frankl

        1. K_Berger

          It’s always darkest just before it goes pitch black.

      2. jason wright


      3. Jess Bachman

        “It really depends on the time of year and how far north you are” – the realist

      4. TRoberts

        Part of that slowly breaking dawn is related to the higher levels of US employment, as it provides some automatic upward pressure on indexes via 401k and similar investment demand.

    4. Kirsten Lambertsen

      Just use this ;-)

    5. LE

      twitter is so broken. frigging ridiculous.Everything’s great and nobody is (fucking) happy.

      1. PhilipSugar

        I thought you didn’t like Louis CK

        1. LE

          I will use any tool at my disposal to my benefit.And besides the irony was just so great that I had to get over my potential dislike of how people fawn all over that guy.

    6. JamesHRH

      Switching to a 10K character limit will fix it though.Stupifying.Couldn’t get to poll either. Have followed Fred for years, have seen 4 of his posts in my feed. Sigh.

  3. jason wright

    i say well below 5,000.George Osborne was being very gloomy yesterday. i think he knows something is about to happen.

  4. Tom Labus

    Tough start to the year but this bull still has some legs. US auto industry, rates, cheap gas and the consumer has a few bucks. Edgy but still long but also have taken profits along the way.

    1. pointsnfigures

      I want to agree with you. I don’t disagree about your points. I also know my confirmation bias is inclined to be bearish. What’s data telling me? The S&P 500 has dropped about 7% since Dec 29. But last August, it dropped 11% from the 18th to the 24th. and recovered pretty quickly. In 2008, from Oct 1 to Oct 8, it dropped about 22%. Of course, the bottom was March of 2009.I wish I could pull up the video, but in January of 2001, I was on Bloomberg and the NASDAQ was at its peak. The anchor asked me where I thought the NASDAQ was going to go-I had just looked at a bunch of charts and I blurted out 1500. Bloomberg pulled me off the air and sent me a nasty letter which I have somewhere in storage.You will go broke picking tops and bottoms. I have found reasons to be more bearish than bullish over the past few years and it cost me. Currently, I don’t trade very much anymore but I am short some premium in various things. At the end of last year, I sold some longs and converted to cash. I don’t trade direction too much since I can’t predict it with any regularity.The market doesn’t feel strong to me. No buyers. We all know we can’t believe any thing that comes out of China and we also know their economy is way ahead of itself. Brazil is a pure shitshow. Roll in the unease in the Middle East, the fact that terrorists are getting more aggressive in different ways around the world and it doesn’t make you feel good about buying.At the same time, @TomLabus:disqus is right about oil. It’s probably going to touch $20/bbl. I think the Fed made the right move to raise rates. Money is still cheap, and will be until it gets to 3% or more.But, as my friend Yra Harris says, “money likes fascism”. It likes stability and things just don’t feel stable to me at all. Seeing Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders with good poll numbers will do that.Sometimes anecdotal evidence guides you. Yesterday, a broker called me and asked if I wanted to invest in Uber. If a schmuck like me gets the “opportunity” to invest in Uber now, is it a top or not?I don’t see a crash, but I see the market lower for most of the year until November. Once the election is over, it might rally a little and finish lower on the year.

      1. Tom Labus

        This is a great comment, Jeff. The lure of the market is never ending!!

      2. JLM

        .We agree on almost everything. For different reasons.That oil thing?It is real and it will be a tsunami which will be the best thing for our economy in 2016 as everyone gets a tax cut.I spotted oil back in August and it’s only gotten more pronounced since then.http://themusingsofthebigrehttp://themusingsofthebigre…JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

    2. Phil Chacko

      China’s a drag, Middle East instability is a drag, positive interest rates will cool off high yields and create downward pressure. Cheap oil and strong tech company execution will insulate the NASDAQ somewhat. Q4 earnings will be strong (esp AMZN). I voted even at 5000.As of my vote, looks like votes are evenly distributed, so we know nothing. Slight pessimism on risk-adjusted basis.

  5. Shalabh

    I will be honest – I don’t know!

    1. Tom Labus

      no one does

      1. pointsnfigures

        Ain’t that the truth.

    2. SubstrateUndertow

      “to know when you know and to know when you don’t know – this is knowledge”

  6. William Mougayar

    You already predicted the Nasdaq was too high on Nov 25, and you were correct.…Another interesting poll question might have been:Will the current correction continue til:46004300Under 4000

  7. Tom Labus

    1 bitcoin $457

  8. JimHirshfield

    As it relates to startups (or should I say late stage vc backed companies) I’d rather hear opinions on whether the market is going to accept tech IPOs. Thoughts?

  9. Daniel Clough

    I have absolutely no idea.I jumped into the stock market in 2015. Perhaps not the best year to do so!I simply invested in a FTSE all share and S&P500 trackers. I will keep adding to them in 2016 and am in it for the long, long term. Still a bit scary though!

    1. baba12

      then learn to play in the options market, lower your cost basis & increase your probabilities of profit.Trade small and trade often…

      1. Daniel Clough

        thanks for the reply. the passive strategy is a conscious one for me. i wrote up a bit of a summary as to what led me to it here –

        1. pointsnfigures

          All depends on your time horizon. The US Stock market will be higher in 20 years than it is today. On options, you can better your chances by trading a little. Instead of buying stock, sell a put.

          1. Daniel Clough

            Yeah, a long time horizon.I didn’t get on with active trading. I have a bit of an addictive personality so found myself checking and worrying about stuff too much!

    2. LE

      I will keep adding to them in 2016 and am in it for the longOh “they” sold you on that strategy did they?

      1. Daniel Clough

        I’ve not really thought about it as a ‘averaging’ strategy per se.In fact the money I put into the market in 2015 was in 2 big lumps and I’m sure I read a higher number of articles that proved that there wasn’t much difference between adding a lump or trying to average it.It’s simply that as I save, I will put it into the market rather than a bank account paying 0.5%.

  10. JLM

    .Markets have been too high for a number of years. Insanely high. The Nasdaq slopes downward until the election and upward thereafter. The Santa Claus Rally of all rallies.Nasdaq ends up at 6,000 but it is an ugly journey to get there.Downward pressure is created by:China (meltdown, y’all — Emperor’s old clothes) — this is going to change the smugness of the Chinese and they will be happy to get a cheeseburger with Trump,Continuing 95MM out of the US labor force,Interest rates creeping up,Middle East gets worse (can you believe it?),Election is ugly on an ape — ugliest and most entertaining election ever with the American people more divided and polarized since the American Revolution,Electorate is just angry and that anger is destructive, andThat guy “inflation” takes a flat in Venice for the winter.Obamacare is peeled back as the disaster and incredible expensive undertaking it truly is.There will be a major terrorist event in the US, UK, or France. It will be the final straw that arouses the sleeping American dragon and there will be Hell to pay.Upward pressure is created by:The biggest tax cut in history — $20/bbl oil for about 45 days, then back to $30/bbl. [Note, the Keystone pipeline is going to be approved when everyone realizes it is going to flow 0.8MM barrels a day which doesn’t have to come from the Middle East. This will be an incredible turn of events. Very symbolic.]Election is going to sort out immigration and the working man in the US is going to flex his/her muscles. It will not be a good year for incumbents.It will be a foregone conclusion that Obamacare, as envisioned, is dead. Everyone will agree. Any Democrat who defends it will be lucky to come in 2nd.Republicans win more of the House, two more in the Senate, more governorships, more statehouses, and business begins to start hiring but not until November 2016.Foreign profits of US companies are repatriated in a 5% tax amnesty.The day before the election will be one of the greatest buying opportunities in the century. Those who buy and buy big will live off it for the rest of their lives.Enormous, huge, fantastic, orgy of year end buying — Santa Claus could be a guy named Trump.Nasdaq 6,000 — 12-31-2016.Right odds? I am taking bets, y’all.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

    1. Tom Labus

      It took until Ike for the republicans to start yelling about SS. I’m with ya on the Pipeline but don’t see why we have to have a empty and bankrupt political party in charge.(GOP) And do me one favor, tell Ted Cruz that the Gold Stnadard is the ultimate/deflationary tactic we coud deploy

      1. JLM

        .I wish Ike were President.Not to pick a fight with you but the GOP RNC is flush with cash while its counterpart is struggling with the light bill and had its Internet service turned off. This actually means something.Same is true of GOP leaning superpacs. The first votes that are cast in any election these days are dollars. The dollars seem to indicate a landslide for the Republicans.The Gold Standard is a little goofy but we still have all that freakin’ gold in Ft Knox. I don’t like the Gold Standard.

        1. Girish Mehta

          There is something analogous to the Gold Standard operating today. Its called the Eurozone. You can see the consequences.The Gold standard worked well only for a particular period in history: 1871-1914.

    2. LE

      Foreign profits of US companies are repatriated in a 5% tax amnesty.What do you think of marrying that idea [1] tied into some kind of investment in economically deserving areas of states or US Territories? With appropriate provisions to make it less likely to be gamed (like they do with the immigration investments that end up helping putting up buildings in the ritzy parts of NYC).[1] Willl have to work on the paltry 5% part of course..

      1. JLM

        .The second there are strings attached, it loses the purity and thus its importance. It is almost entirely symbolic but it says something substantial.”The gov’t is the enemy of business.”Many companies who have money held overseas do not really have a use for it in the US.It is very significant if it can be done quickly as it delivers a message. American business is pretty squishy when it comes to political fealty. This says, “The Republicans are a friend to business.”It would be so easy to do this and all the revenue is found money. Found money.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

        1. LE

          it loses the purity and thus its importanceWell so does a Texas virgin but that never stopped anyone, from, say, doing the nasty, right?I guess we disagree on this one. I don’t see adding a string (if you want to call it that, I wouldn’t) as making it lose importance or impact. In fact, it’s the opposite. If you don’t tie amnesty to some condition one could argue that it creates more of a moral hazard for the future. Whether it does or does not makes not difference of course.You know some times you want to make a deal really bad. But in any deal there typically needs to be (what I will call) “kickback” to a deal point even one that you have already decided in your mind that you have agreed to. Otherwise the other side will feel they left something on the table. And could get cold feet.

          1. JLM

            .There is a reason why a bit of alcohol and the missionary position are both involved in the deflowering of virgins — even Texas virgins.It is elegantly simple and everyone understands it. One petal at a time.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

          2. LE

            How true! Sort of proves the point that Cosby must be guilty or perhaps he didn’t pick women from the lonestar state to have consensual sex with.

          3. JLM

            .It is impossible to believe what a scumbag fuckup he is. None of those women must have had older brothers. Older brothers with baseball bats.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

          4. LE

            I think you have to factor in that it appears that many of these women stuck around and continued to suck up to Cosby in order to further their own careers. While it was obviously not right that Cosby drugged them (that is a separate crime) many of them hung on for years while continuing to either milk or attempt to milk Cosby for what he could do for them. I don’t think that is in dispute. In all fairness. Ditto for his wife who obviously knew he was a cad but didn’t ditch him because she liked being the wife of Cosby.Likewise it is almost certain that Hollywood is paved with successful women who slept their way to the top. In the end that was a decision that they made. I am sure many of them are probably happy that they traded sex for fame and fortune.This raises the point of Trump bringing up Clinton’s past and saying Hillary was an enabler. Almost every pundit thinks that is absurd. Matthews is all over that one. But the truth is Hillary was an enabler. She knew Bill was a cad long before Monica, and allowed him to behave that way in order to further her own interests. As such by my definition she was an enabler of his behavior, similar to how Cosby’s wife was.Rendell came pretty close to defending Cosby on TV last week. Spoke very highly about what he did for education in PA and a bunch of other things.Older brothers with baseball bats.Not the jewish way JLM. The jewish way involves getting $$ for said sexual activities.

          5. JLM

            .Both?Cosby had a lot of good things to say about black America once upon a time. No doubt about that.But, clearly he was a predator in an industry in which predatory behavior is closer to the norm than one might believe.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

          6. PhilipSugar

            If you believe Dick Morris she was much worse than that, she hired people to dig up dirt on those that did and those that didn’t. If he could get any evidence that would devastating.

          7. LE

            I have no doubt that in due time he will. Right now highlighting that information would be a “blown load” and quickly forgotten. And it’s not needed now.The time to reveal that by any intelligent person’s strategy would be much much later in the game. In reverse reference, this is why standard advice (about negatives) is to get things out early on because that way it has less chance of hurting you later (and you can control the info obviously as well).My wife is kinda sorta for Hillary. Why? The “she’s a woman” thing. So I say to her “do you know how much more taxes we will be paying if she is elected President!!! Do you know how this will impact you directly!!!”. She isn’t even thinking on those lines all she sees is “she is a woman and I like the way she comes across”.I sent her an image of what taxes used to be like. Like 50% and 70% tax brackets plus state tax and all of the other bells and whistles.

          8. Mario Cantin

            …or T-shirts that say “I don’t call 9-1-1”

    3. SubstrateUndertow

      So your saying that America is going to make one last attempt to restart its linear 20th century political economy ?Careful what you wish for !

    4. LE

      Markets have been too high for a number of years. Insanely high.With the exception of my mother every retired or older person has put money in the market because interest rates are so low and they would rather chance losing capital then staying in the same place.

    5. Richard

      In the long run, expect tech to continue its march with increased productivity and higher margins for large cap. World is awash in liquidity which compresses fixed income yields, fixed income will continue to act as insurance and not an investment.

    6. Mark Essel

      “Foreign profits of US companies are repatriated in a 5% tax amnesty.”This would be interesting.Also a big fan of buying opps and living off it for a few decades!

  11. andyswan

    Don’t fight the fed.

  12. Chimpwithcans

    Relatively low reliance on exports will help USA and NASDAQ this year. I voted higher but thinking if it comes out even NASDAQ does well.

  13. Salt Shaker

    Market instability will aide Trump and lead to more distrust of the status quo. How long has Trump been screaming about China? Instability there and in the Middle East works to his advantage. Fear is a powerful tool.Market bucks like a bull most of year and gets a strong post-election finish, either marginally up or down year end.

    1. JLM

      .Let’s be fair here — Trump has been perfectly correct about China, no?JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

      1. Salt Shaker

        Yes, agreed.

      2. LE

        Separate thought if Trump gets elected there is a 25% chance of civil unrest and protests is my prediction.

        1. JLM

          .Civil unrest has two important results — an issue is framed and the President gets to show how he deals with crisis.Like Rahm said, “Never let a crisis go to waste.”Our country is lazy when it comes to civil unrest these days. There were no food wagons or porta potties during the 1960s anti-war riots. The Nixon Counter Inaugural was a hoot (VMI marched in the Inaugural parade and we got accosted by the Washington Monument by a bunch of protestors. Not a good idea to accost cadets with rifles and bayonets. I came pretty close to starting a riot personally before we got the rifles and bayonets stowed under the bus and headed back to Lexington, Va. Great story.)People forget that the protesters met the 82nd Abn Div on Key Bridge in Georgetown and fought armed paratroopers. Kent State? Totally fucked up but people got killed. The current crop of protesters demand sunscreen.Those guys knew how to riot.Now, we have one night at a time rioters who want their creature comforts. They want to clock out and sleep in their own beds.Occupy Wall Street was a sushi eating, merlot drinking, turtle neck wearing bunch of funded pussies who couldn’t start a real riot if they tried.It would give a guy like Trump an opportunity to show how he intends to deal with lawlessness. I bet he would call out the Regular Army (just like civil rights in Alabama) and arrest all of them. I’d hose them down with water cannons, detain them outside in the cold and let them suffer.A cold, wet ass is a real deterrent to rioting.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

          1. LE

            Like Rahm said, “Never let a crisis go to waste.”Looks like Rahm is headed to be the least successful of the brothers Emmanuel, eh? And he wanted to be a mayor. At least newly bearded Paul Ryan publicly was kicking and screaming about ending his political career with a new job.It would give a guy like Trump an opportunity to show how he intends to deal with lawlessness. Like Philly mayors would. (Say Frank Rizzo and his billy club do you remember Frank?). Or Philly’s first black mayor, Wilson Good did with the MOVE people. Bombed them! Those were the days!On May 13, 1985, the police, along with city manager Leo Brooks, arrived in force with arrest warrants and attempted to clear the building and arrest the indicted MOVE members. This led to an armed standoff with police, who lobbed tear gas canisters at the building. MOVE members fired at the police, who returned fire with automatic weapons. Commissioner Sambor then ordered that the compound be bombed. From a Pennsylvania State Police helicopter, Philadelphia Police Department Lt. Frank Powell proceeded to drop two one-pound bombs (which the police referred to as “entry devices”[15]) made of FBI-supplied water gel explosive, a dynamite substitute, targeting a fortified, bunker-like cubicle on the roof of the house. The resulting explosions ignited a fire that eventually destroyed approximately 65 nearby houses.[1]

          2. JLM

            .Rahm, like a lot of Democrats, is running out of OPM to spend on liberal wet dreams and Chicago is going the way of Detroit. His political ambitions go with it.One has to like a police outfit which uses close air support.There is nothing more gratifying than calling in artillery, gunships, jets on an entrenched enemy. Nothing.I never got to work with A-10 Warthogs, long after my time. I would pay to be able to work a couple of Warthogs against a bunch of shitheads.You have to keep the artillery gun-target line clean while the gunships work and then bring the jets out of the sun before the gunships’ tails are exposed. As the jets clear the target zone, you turn on the artillery again. It is a freakin’ ballet.The ultimate game.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

          3. LE

            I was wondering “why are these Jews different then the Jews that I grew up around?”.So I looked at the brothers wikipedia page and found this which explains it:His mother, Marsha (née Smulevitz), is the daughter of a West Side Chicago union organizer who worked in the civil rights movement, and briefly owned a local rock and roll clubAbout Dad E it says this:who was once a member of the Irgun, a Jewish paramilitary organization that operated in Mandate PalestineThe backstory is always fascinating to me. For example I have tied Fred’s love of music to the fact that he moved so many times as a kid. Don’t ask me why it’s just a gut feeling that I have.

          4. JLM

            .The Irgun is one of the all time best stories and studies in the history of the world. Of course, Menachim Begin was its commander until 1948 when it was integrated into the IDF.The Irgun bombed the the St David which was the Jewish Dec of Independence from Britain in the Palestinian Mandate. They were terrorists in the eyes of the Brits and were revolutionaries in the eyes of the Jews. One of very few successful revolutions in the history of the world.The tactics of the Irgun both militarily and organizationally is the story of Jews with pistols in their hands in response to what happened during WWII. This was the defiant force that has energized Israel ever since.The right of every Jew to return, the defiance of any opposition, the expulsion of Arabs from Jewish lands, and the willingness to fight for their freedoms started with the Irgun.It is a damn good subject to study.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

          5. Mario Cantin

            Interesting, come to think of it, my parents moved regularly when I was a kid as my dad was a carpenter/builder with several lots of land passed on to his by his father — and so he just couldn’t help himself. What would be the correlation to music, if you’re correct?

          6. LE

            Less ability to be social with a group of people as a constant (which you would think is the case for someone who moved iirc 30 times) means you will tend to spend more time in your room at home. “Stereos” were big back in the day as a way of getting into a zone when there was nothing else to do. I speculate of course.

          7. Mario Cantin

            Ok I see the logic now.Except that we weren’t moving far when we did — mostly on the same street on my dad’s next parcel of land — so that wasn’t it for me; *but* I was an only child and I did ask for a big sound system was I was 13. So your logic does hold well.

          8. Hu Man

            You left off:”Eleven people (John Africa, five other adults and five children aged 7 to 13) died in the resulting fire and more than 250 people were left homeless.”

        2. Lawrence Brass

          You are ignoring something. The economic impact that the construction of the Great Wall of America will have on the economy will eliminate any chance of civil unrest, there will be jobs for everyone in the construction industry. Demand for labor will be so high that salaries will soar and zillions of illegal immigrants will come from every corner of the world to help build the thing and keep costs down, new cities will flourish along The Wall to house these people, creating new markets and demand for even more labor. By then the government will consider issuing a new W-visa, just for Wall workers, while the project is completed.We are talking 1,954 miles 22ft height or so concrete wall here, Donald is no fool.

  14. David Barnes

    If you discount all volatility and look at trend curve for past 40 years, 5000 feels about right for 2016. So that’s where I voted.More interested in tech’s impact on life than on stock markets.

    1. Mario Cantin

      That’s my guess too, although Charlie’s “run for the hills” contention is compelling.

  15. Kirsten Lambertsen

    Stock market performance during presidential election years…Meanwhile, it’s Roy Batty’s birthday.

  16. Tek Kim

    Latter innings of a long liquidity cycle, inflated earnings growth due to overdone M&A, huge debt problems in China > Lots of cash on the sidelines = Sellers of Equity > Buyers of Equity = Upside for Bitcoin & Gold = Risk is towards the Downside for Equities (esp. Nasdaq)

  17. mikenolan99

    Too much negative chatter during an election year for big gains in the market… my vote? Flat to a negative Nasdaq by year end… BTW – Love that the poll ends with a Twitter discussion – VERY powerful!

  18. iggyfanlo

    I suggest the book “Chaos and the Capital Markets” … statistical proof of market behaviors, including commodities, equities, bonds, FX, even economic growth… are ALL trend persistent and like fractals/chaos, this is true at all time scales; the only mean reverting market is volatility (which makes some intuitive sense too). IF (and that’s still not certain, but increasingly likely that the market has truly turned,then we are probably in for several months, quarters and perhaps even several years of down markets. Interestingly, all other markets did turn; commodities, then emerging markets, FX (dollar up)…

  19. Sierra Choi

    I think we still have 6-10 years to go before a potential burst in the tech bubble. Coincidentally, I made my new year’s stock projections here: http://www.globalfounders.l

  20. Matt Zagaja

    Higher. As the most educated generation in the history of the world continues to permeate the workforce the innovations that are discovered and value that is unlocked is going to be massive. At no time in the history of our people has such an abundance of talent been available at such bargain basement prices to public companies. Openness has further increased the speed of diffusion of innovations. If this index falls it will be despite ourselves and not because of it.

  21. Stephen Palmer

    I voted that it stays flat. The biggest problem in the market is an elevated valuation and a lack of growth. The macro stuff like China, I think is overplayed.

  22. Charlie Petty

    Would love to see what the same group of respondents have to say about private valuations. I have no intuition about what direction that would go.

  23. David Parker

    @fredwilson:disqus – Offtopic- FYI, the poll doesn’t show up in RSS reader(s) (only viewed in Feedly).Ontopic- around 5,000.

  24. DJL

    It’s going to be around 4000. Just look at the graph and you can see – this stuff always comes back to some “mean.” Which it should.I also believe that the market will be brought down so that the media can blame Republicans (who have been in charge, right?) in time for election. Cynical? Absolutely.Why not have a Super-bowl like square game were we get to buy numbers and win prizes. (A lot more fun that buying puts on the OEX.)

  25. riemannzeta

    We’ve been in a deflationary environment for almost ten years despite the low interest rates. This is kind of par for the course in the deleveraging that follows a credit bubble. WIth the right catalyst — and I don’t know if it will come this year — we will see a move to inflation as the companies that have the inelastic demand begin to raise prices and hence see revenue growth, and the interest rates begin to go up again.Electric and autonomous cars look like the kind of catalyst that could kick the global economy back into gear. It took a war after the last credit bubble burst before the U.S. economy really got cooking again.

    1. JLM

      .Last week every airline in the US raised prices in the face of incredibly low fuel costs. It is beginning. Flying full these days.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

      1. LE

        Good for them. It is time the rented mule has it’s day.

        1. JLM

          .It is unusual only because it is in the face of a big fuel cost benefit. It was essentially 0.5% across the board but it adds up when you multiply it by millions of passengers.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

          1. LE

            Where are they at with the unions? Seems that Charlie Sheen’s dad will be wanting to get higher pay for “his men” given the current state of airline profits.Reminds me of when I was young and was able to buy a Mercedes (well at least the low end one). I didn’t bring it near my place of business for fear the employees would have their hands out for pay raises. Knew a guy years later who had a union plant and had to buy the lower end BMW because he didn’t have his union contract tied up yet and didn’t want to send the wrong signal which would increase his costs. [1][1] A few years later he went bankrupt anyway because of changes in pharmaceutical marketing which was the industry that he was in.

          2. JLM

            .See that’s one of the reasons America is so pissed off. No upward wage pressure. While aircraft mechanics are not low skill workers they are still subject to the marketplace.The pooling of the weak in the M&A environment has everybody’s dobbers down.The SEIU last week said that they think they have 64% conservative members and are worried about Trump’s penetration into their ranks. I find that to be incredibly interesting.The SEIU is where ACORN’s brain used to spend the night.Nobody is getting a raise except for software engineers.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

          3. LE

            I got an auto reply from a hipster that works at a company that I am doing some work for. It’s one that you have heard of that has been mentioned on this blog quite frequently.The auto reply, in reply to a somewhat urgent question that I had, said he was on paternity leave.Let me ask you this. Would you have been able to take that vacation to steamboat, afford an airplane, build that big building, make perfect daughters wedding, have her marry into a nice jewish family if you had not worked as hard as you did because you said to Trammel Crow “I will get back to you in 4 weeks as I am on paternity leave”. Sure because he would have said “take as long as you like Jeff and I will be here when you return to take that meeting and wrap up the details on what we were working on!”.This is exactly why Trump says we aren’t winning anymore. We are to worried about the wrong things.Nobody is getting a raise except for software engineers.They think it will last forever I guess they never heard of Fortran and Cobol.

          4. JLM

            .I started from a 2 man shop and built a 500 person company which owned a nice chunk of all the office space in ATX back in the day as also one of the largest owners of apartments in TX and the US.I used to feast on TC’s chili bowl every day before dawn. Before dawn, I was the guy creeping in the bushes stealing their chili.I used to drive past their building and notice the lights were not on when my guys were in training class at 6:50 AM.I used to tell my guys to go walk past the TC offices.There are no secrets.There is only get up early, stay late, work hard, skip lunch once or twice and do shit. Do it hard. Do it right. Do it every day. Stick your thumb in the competition’s eye and do not take prisoners.That is what Trump knows and what Jeb doesn’t.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

  26. Pete Griffiths

    I suggest adding another radio button for “Don’t have any idea.”

  27. JaredMermey

    Where else do people put money? From what I read, everyone is more bearish about all other asset classes & markets. Do rate increases change this? Is fixed income attractive yet?

    1. pointsnfigures

      all depends on your age, risk tolerance and when you need the cash.

      1. JaredMermey

        True. But that statement applies for any part of the cycle, no?Can my question be normalized for “all things being equal” where would you put the money given apparent pessimism for all asset classes? Maybe not.

  28. Salt Shaker

    Data here, data there, data everywhere.Despite access to an enormous amount of economic and financial data, current and trending, it’s impossible to predict where the market is heading. There are just too many factors–external (e.g., terrorism, political, currency fluctuations) and psychological (e.g., fear, exuberance)–to predict market performance w/ any degree of certainty. Just like biz, the market operates on a multi-dimensional plane, not a linear one.With respect to tech, it seems virtually all companies today are beholden to data, whether their biz model is ad rev, subscription and/or transactionally based. For many, behavioral data is the secret sauce and an invaluable tool that drives strategy and execution. But it shouldn’t always be viewed in a vacuum or as the Holy Grail. In any business, there are intangibles and external forces, psychological or otherwise, that influence consumer perception and behavior. Some of this stuff is virtually impossible to fully grasp and track quantitatively. It’s somewhat ephemeral. Sometimes relying on instinct and sound judgment is as important as relying on hard data. The “human element” needs, and should be, a continual part of the biz decision-making equation.For example, using data as a predictive tool for creative development for a bunch of industries is hard for me to fully embrace. Take Netflix, or virtually any entertainment product/service, including music. It’s hard to grasp how data can accurately be applied to development when there are so, so many variables that come into play in the creative development process (e.g., casting, scripting, scoring, editing, on-air chemistry, production values, tonality). To assume a program producer can break down and quantify a successful series’ various components and formulaically rebuild a new and different TV series discounts a range of qualitative and intangible variables that are so important to the success/failure equation. Let’s be honest, Hollywood studios, ad agencies, etc., have been grappling (unsuccessfully) w/ market research and predictive performance tools for literally decades. Some aspects of biz just can’t be quantified w/ certainty.In sum, behavioral data is a great and important tool, but it needs to be used/applied judiciously. It’s part of the equation, but it shouldn’t be viewed as a universal solution or magic bullet for all of businesses woes/opportunities.

  29. JamesHRH

    I am w PmarcA. It’s solid, taking a breather, will be around 5000.

  30. Simone Brunozzi

    If someone is 55 years old in 2015, how old will he live?You look at the simplest of the data available (average life expectancy), and the result is, say, he will live to 75.Then you start adding more data (he’s white, he lives in NY, he’s affluent and has access to good health care), and the number goes to 78.You add more data, and the number keeps going up or down, but being refined at every step.Same thing can be applied to the NASDAQ. If you look at that simple graph above, it’s hard to guess. If you look at past behavior to try to predict the future, the more data you have, the more precise you can be.It’s hard for a single human being to be able to consider advancements in technology, economic situation, potential wars and crisis, etc, and then predict where the NASDAQ will be at the end of 2016.This is why I will just invent a number and hope I’ll be right: NASDAQ will be between 5106 and 5110. If I am right, Fred Wilson will offer me a dinner in NY at a place of my choice, in Q1 2017, and possibly will join me. 🙂

  31. Michael Elling

    Next time use a log scale. Looks completely different and depending on where you draw a trend line will produce completely different outcomes, fundamentals and other exogenous factors aside.As well, show P/E or CF multiples in absolute terms on the other axis.

  32. Justice Will

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  33. Salt Shaker

    “Eat bread, don’t trust the fed.”

  34. JLM

    .Charlie, can you hook a pal up? With some organic bread?JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

  35. Girish Mehta

    Highs are known post-facto.”Nobody rings a bell at the top” – Old Trader’s Adage.Exhibit A: The front page of the Wall Street Journal, Oct 28, 1929.Neither the 1929 or the 1987 crashes came at the high. In both cases, the Market high was hit a little earlier in the year. There was a period of unease and flatness after the high, before the crash.Maybe there are too many people calling a bubble right now for it to be a bubble. Who knows ?Volatility is here to stay.

  36. meredithcollinzzz

    I think you’re right. And for recreation, people will stay home and virtually collaborate with their favorite artists on original songs.

  37. Mario Cantin

    “Run to the Hills” is an Iron Maiden song. It deserves more air time these days.

  38. pointsnfigures

    wish you were right about the second one, but I am afraid the USDA and FDA will do everything in their power to curb innovation.

  39. Dave Pinsen

    George Soros basically agrees with the first part of that:Is This Another 2008? George Soros Just Raised That Prospect $AMZN $FB $GEO $JPM $NVDA $PBY $RTN $TAP $WPC— Portfolio Armor (@PortfolioArmor) January 8, 2016

  40. LE

    Serve the masses, eat with the classes.

  41. jason wright

    Is there Demeter standard organic food produced and sold in the US?

  42. awaldstein

    not common if it is out there.most of us think of demeter for bio-d for wine here.

  43. pointsnfigures

    For example, let’s say you wanted to humanely slaughter animals. Might be better to do it through mobile abattoir. USDA won’t let that happen though, and wants every thing going to a centralized slaughterhouse if you want to do commerce across state lines. Want to make artisan cheese? Sorry, can’t use raw milk, and if the USDA/FDA has their way, you have to put all your cheese on stainless steel, not wood to age. Want to start a food business? No can do-need permits, certificates etc.Want to grow organic chickens in Indiana and sell them in Illinois? cant without going through a distributor. Want to raise pastured hogs in Michigan? Illegal.American govts do more to curb commerce and innovation in food industry than almost any other.

  44. @mikeriddell62

    Like it.

  45. JamesHRH

    but he was personally involved in that one….and young…..and Disqus replies have been getting put in my Junk folder!