Trump Clinton 

In my “2016 Predictions” post I wrote:

Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee and he will attack the tech sector for its support of immigrant labor. As a result the tech sector will line up behind Hillary Clinton who will be elected the first woman President.

Neither Trump nor Clinton is a done deal yet but its looking more and more likely by the day.

And in the most recent Republican debate Trump went after Marco Rubio for his support of H1B visas which are critical to the tech sector in the US.

 Trump is wrong about H1Bs and pretty much everything else that comes out of his mouth. But it looks like this prediction has some legs right now.


Comments (Archived):

  1. kidmercury

    trump is a fool, but voting for hillary because trump is a fool is like voting for a villain rather than a fool. maybe it is time to disregard both fools and villians and look to other parties.

    1. awaldstein

      A huge fool but I’ll vote t keep him out and feel good about it.

      1. kidmercury

        sure, if you feel voting for a woman who covers up the rapes committed by her husband is something to feel good about, then yes that makes sense.

        1. Tom Hughes

          Much as I would like to, I don’t have to “feel good about” the person I vote for. I’m not inviting the Clintons to my kid’s wedding, but I’ll help put a Clinton in the White House if that will keep Trump out. His policies are wrong and his character is vile, but what makes him actually dangerous to the country is his willingness to step out of any democratic or civic context and encourage violence against people who disagree with him. People use the Berlusconi analogy, but Trump is more like Mussolini: a media figure, charismatic to some, whose pomposity and self-aggrandizement tricks his opponents into underestimating his capacity for violence. Those “make America great again” hats are in exactly the same spirit at Mussolini’s blackshirts.

          1. kidmercury

            sure, if you think voting for an accomplice to rape and murder is a justifiable endeavor, then it is of course your right.

        2. LE

          Not a Hillary fan (she is “qualfied yet boring” but doesn’t address issues that I care about) but why does that matter?Bill didn’t rape anyone by the way.

          1. kidmercury

            lol @ bill didn’t rape anyone….and a guy in a cave pulled off 9/11 too……to spell it out, being an accomplice to rape could be seen as an indication of one’s integrity, morals, and truthfulness. some may find these attributes worthwhile to consider in assessing the trustworthiness of a candidate, as well as the kind of logic they may be willing to employ while in office and the consequences of this.

  2. JimHirshfield

    Ooooh, politics! After posting about women’s fertility, parental leave, and privacy, I thought you might blog about something divisive. Silly me.

    1. fredwilson


        1. Twain Twain

          It’s a great thing I’m not drinking coffee because it’d be all over the keyboard!The mad creativity of Photoshoppers out there!

        2. jason wright

          that is a scary image.

  3. ErikSchwartz

    I am really looking forward to the socially progressive yet fiscally conservative party that forms when Trump finishes blowing up the GOP.

    1. gorbachev

      If my sarcasm detector is broken this morning, please ignore the following, otherwise read on.How do you think that’s going to happen? The majority of Republicans have been socially conservative and fiscally liberal (as in spending all that it can) for at least a couple of decades now. The GOP leadership isn’t going anywhere. The Trump supporters don’t fit that bill either.The socially progressive and fiscally conservative party born out of GOP will be a very small party. I think the Clinton “wing” of the Democratic party much more accurately fits in a type of a party you stated.

      1. ErikSchwartz

        It will be a small party.But when you have been running a fragile coalition of big business, interventionist neo-cons, evangelicals, nativists, and rednecks and still not getting over 50% of the popular vote, then peeling off even a few points is fatal.

    2. Stephen Voris

      Well, we already have the Libertarian party, which more or less matches the policy attitudes you describe. They (we?) just don’t get much press.

      1. Ryan Frew

        While I identify most closely with Libertarians, I don’t think it’s totally accurate to describe the party as entirely socially progressive. In fact, that’s probably why I’m still independent.

        1. Stephen Voris

          Fair enough; on the other hand, it’s harder to influence a party’s policy when you’re not actually in that party. Especially these days.

    3. Ryan Frew

      Love the optimism. Hope you’re right about this.

  4. Jordan Thaeler

    It’s a sad day when those are the two choices to occupy the most important job in the world

    1. obarthelemy

      Isn’t vice-president more important ? I mean, Dick Cheney…

    2. Ryan Frew

      I saw a post about the presidency today that said, “In 4 years, hindsight will be 2020”. Made me laugh….and cry….

  5. Andy

    Welp, looks like my inbox will have one less email now that Fred has decided to go political. Especially since he’s wrong here. So what the tech sector depends on H1Bs? Maybe they should invest in educating American children vs. relying on cheap Indian coders. To be clear, Trump is for keeping international students who graduate from top schools but need employment to keep their visa status. He’s against H1B abuse where companies like Accenture, Cognizant, etc import Indian labor at 1/3 the cost to augment IT staff at the expense of American labor. If you love immigrant labor so much, move to India and you will be fully satisfied.

    1. Rob Underwood

      Given Fred’s role leading and funding efforts to expand computer science in the US and especially in NYC schools- something he has written about numerous times on this blog and hence also must be in your inbox – I think your comment “Maybe they (the tech sector) should invest in educating American children” is misguided at best.

    2. fredwilson

      I go political all the time. Been doing it for over 13 years. If you thought this blog was apolitical you are badly mistaken

      1. Lawrence Brass

        The World needs people like you going political, being political and into politics.I think these somewhat new hyper-connected society needs a new type of politics and politicians. The traditional politician apparent inadequacy originates from the misalignment of traditional politics practices with this ‘new’ society hopes and demands.

    3. Jaikant Kumaran

      You are born in a capitalist country my friend. Maybe you belong elsewhere actually – china?

    4. JLM

      .You got Trump’s positions exactly right.I will have to rise to Wilson’s defense, he has consistently injected political topics particularly ones that touch on tech as this one does.Don’t leave us.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

    5. Lawrence Brass

      I don’t want to be rude but I don’t know how to express the idea, here it goes:”If you dislike immigrant labor so much, start practicing cleaning your own WC.”How about that? 😉

  6. Carlos N Velez/Lacerta Bio

    What awful choices we have! To think the country that produced such amazing technologies and innovations can also produce these two knuckleheads to run for President.I agree Trump is wrong about most things, including H1Bs.Canada, anybody? Or maybe Luxembourg?

    1. andyswan

      Why not move to Mexico? Aren’t we supposed to be excited about importing that culture in masse?

      1. obarthelemy

        Too many guns in Mexico.

      2. LE

        I love the people who say they will move out the country if Trump is elected. Talk about lying and stretching the truth for dramatic effect (the thing Trump is often accused of..)

      3. JLM

        .I just got back from a nice stay in Mexico and it is a great country. The most gracious people imaginable. I might start spending the winters in Old Mexico.It is so cheap in Mexico. I was in a 3,000 SF high rise villa for less than $75/night. It was extraordinary. Vidanta.I was laying out The Wall. I am a civil engineer and I know that surveying stuff.JKJLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

  7. timraleigh

    Protectionism (immigration) is killing a once great country.

    1. Tom Hughes

      Agreed — where are the pro-business politicians that can make the case for trade and openness, which have always been the ingredients of American success?

      1. timraleigh

        Yes, at least as far as I know which is really not much. I find it ironic that a party (republicans) that seemed to be the most supportive of business interests are at least as protectionist (politically, policy etc.) with regards to immigration as the Democrats.

      2. JLM

        .Agreeing with you but I think there is substantial confusion between “free” trade and “fair” trade. Today, we are our own worst enemies.We charge nothing for a ticket to the biggest show in town (the US economy) and let our trading partners say, “Oooops, sorry, all the seats are taken. Come back next year.”Trump is right on this.When we stood up to the foreign car makers first on content and then on manufacturing — we created great jobs. Go see the MB and BMW plants in South Carolina. The Toyota plant in San Antone.We were smart, tough, pragmatic. We created jobs and we won.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

  8. Rob Underwood

    It’s been pathetic to watch media outlets such as “morning joe” trump up Trump since the summer and – now that he has a legitimate chance to become our president coupled with the violence etc. at his rallies – back away in horror.Trump’s rise was largely enabled and made possible because of the media and its pursuit of an interesting story last summer (that sells advertising), long before the election began in earnest.I am not saying Trump happened BECAUSE of the media. But their obsession with and focus on him last summer certainly contributed a lot to his rise. It was all fun and games to joke about his candidacy during a soft ball interview in September. Who is laughing now?

    1. LE

      That started back in the late 70’s with Trump, when I began following him. Had that not happened he wouldn’t be in a position to even come close to doing what he is doing now. No sense in laying any blame on the media. They are a business they aren’t your rabbi or priest (who by the way have their own agenda as well) or mother.In a sense Trump is more “legitimate” to run and have what he has than anyone else perhaps with the exception of John Kasich (who has been grinding it out). Cruz, Rubio are recent phenomena. For that matter Sanders as well has earned his place to run for office. Hillary is where she is because of what Bill achieved (with her help of course). Jeb Bush had his family and family name (which didn’t work). I am not questioning that she is qualified to run of course, she is, at least experience wise. But if experience is what matters most and not freshness and a new approach startups would be run by ex execs from General Electric (and they are not, right?)Say what you will about Trump (and you will) he is pretty much the ultimate entrepreneur on a shoestring budget.…Trump has laid to waste this tradition. If, as expected, he prevails in most of the primary elections tonight, the billionaire developer will most likely be the Republican Party’s nominee — and will have shredded a number of strategic master plans drawn up by his opponents’ well-paid advisers. And Trump will have accomplished this feat with a skeleton crew of largely unknown hired hands whose stated operating principle is “Let Trump Be Trump.” (His campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, last worked with Americans For Prosperity, the advocacy group backed by the billionaire Koch brothers, and before that, the losing 2002 re-election race of Senator Bob Smith of New Hampshire. His 26-year-old spokeswoman, Hope Hicks, had never worked on a political campaign.)

  9. Val Tsanev

    Agree with the prediction. GOP is going for an open convention. Personally don’t think Trump will get to the magic number with Kasich and Cruz remaining in the race. Hillary vs. Trump pretty much guarantees Hillary is the next POTUS and the GOP knows that and will do everything possible for that not to happen.

  10. Jing Xie

    I don’t agree with this post but am open minded to a more detailed explanation why Trump’s position on H1Bs are wrong. The excerpt below is directly from his website. What is wrong with this stance?”Increase prevailing wage for H-1Bs. We graduate two times more Americans with STEM degrees each year than find STEM jobs, yet as much as two-thirds of entry-level hiring for IT jobs is accomplished through the H-1B program. More than half of H-1B visas are issued for the program’s lowest allowable wage level, and more than eighty percent for its bottom two. Raising the prevailing wage paid to H-1Bs will force companies to give these coveted entry-level jobs to the existing domestic pool of unemployed native and immigrant workers in the U.S., instead of flying in cheaper workers from overseas. This will improve the number of black, Hispanic and female workers in Silicon Valley who have been passed over in favor of the H-1B program. Mark Zuckerberg’s personal Senator, Marco Rubio, has a bill to triple H-1Bs that would decimate women and minorities.Requirement to hire American workers first. Too many visas, like the H-1B, have no such requirement. In the year 2015, with 92 million Americans outside the workforce and incomes collapsing, we need companies to hire from the domestic pool of unemployed. Petitions for workers should be mailed to the unemployment office, not USCIS.”

    1. Tom Hughes

      If this were really Trump’s position it wouldn’t be crazy — protectionist, but not crazy. But it’s obvious that this was written by someone clever trying to obscure Trump’s real reasons: racism and hate-mongering. The people he’s appealing to don’t understand the H-1B program, they just want to hear some immigrant-bashing.The other answer to your question is that the policy just won’t work: raising the costs of those jobs to US employers will move those jobs overseas — the potential employers are precisely those American companies like Apple, Google etc. with the most global business and the fewest barriers to moving jobs to their most efficient location. Painful — welcome to capitalism — but that’s how the world works.

        1. LE

          He is saying what he needs to say to get elected. It’s what all politicians do. It’s a game of “my lie isn’t as bad as your lie”.Did you catch Kasich’s “victory” speech or Hillary’s? (which was a victory..) They sounded like the politicians that they are. Full of bullshit and nonsense. Kasich in particular couldn’t help but reiterate what he did for his state knowing that the speech was yet just another chance to advertise himself. He didn’t talk about anything substantive going forward, just what he did in the past. No better than what Trump does, just different.

          1. sigmaalgebra

            It’s important to judge the character of people, and there not all people, not even all politicians, are the same.

      1. Jing Xie

        Thanks for the perspective. I work in the tech sector. While there are certainly budgets and business cases to solve (where some jobs will have to move outside of the US), I think the policy would work to preserve incrementally more entry level tech jobs for US citizens. We are essentially subsidizing foreign workers and trying to argue that tech profit margins would be negatively impacted if we don’t. This same argument can be applied to other countries (especially a number of European countries), however, I’ve seen first hard in making resource decisions that their policies protect local employment. The US makes it fairly easy to layoff high cost employees for lower cost employees, the H1B issue adds fuel to the fire during times of lackluster economic growth to shed quality US tech workers in favor of backfilling them with a combination of lower experienced or foreign workers. Furthermore, a number of tech companies I’ve worked with don’t actually have entities in India or China (or they are very small). It isn’t so easy for all tech companies to just “ship” a job overseas. What IS easier is to make the decision to hire someone on H1B for lower salary than a perfectly qualified US citizen STEM graduate equivalent.

    2. fredwilson

      He said none of that in the debate. He disparaged the whole idea of H1Bs

      1. LE

        I wouldn’t worry to much about that. Trump is a deal maker and negotiator. Part of the process is to bullshit your way to victory. The good news is that he isn’t constrained to what he says at any time. So he could easily and most definitely change his mind on many issues if he ever got elected. Just like any politician often does. They all lie. All of them. You know that.You can relax. [1] I don’t think he will be elected. It will be Hillary. But if he is for some reason elected you can rest assured that he (despite what comes out of his mouth) is brilliant in terms of what decisions he will make in the end. It’s all his brain in terms of getting to this point, against all odds and against ever single smart person and pundit out there. Do you think that makes someone “stupid”?As far as the hate stuff that is a distraction. First he will dial that in as he gets to the general election. He will use the “contrast principle”. He will all the sudden get people to vote for him that would have swore they hate him. That is a technique that he will use that will be unleashed on the public. They will say “hey he sounds good now hmmm…”.The bottom line with Trump is there is more upside than downside. Why? Checks and balances. We can’t fall to far with him but there is the chance that some of his wild and wacky ideas might get us to a better place. With Hillary that is not going to happen (nor with Kasich).[1] And get ready for the higher taxes that comes with social programs.

        1. JamesHRH

          Dr Gwynne Dyer, eminent CDN war scholar, on the international reaction to President Trump: both allies and enemies would be nervous, as he is completely unpredictable.

      2. LE

        By the way his daughter Ivanka has her hand in the startup pot. (Has invested in companies that I work with). She has his ear. Little chance in the end that he doesn’t do things favorable for startups. Same as with Israel. His grandkids are orthodox and Ivanka converted. Impossible that he won’t be favorable toward Israel. Little chance things won’t be good for NYC iim. And government regulation, red tape and the like? As a person who had fought with that (unlike a politician does) seems he would end up having the appropriate empathy. Noting that his business is essentially a small business as well.

        1. Rob Larson

          One of my friends from Wharton works for Ivanka doing commercial real estate investing. Says she is extremely impressive, very smart, and a fantastic person to work for. I was not expecting that given the public image Donald has crafted of himself (basically the world’s biggest blowhard). Apparently Ivanka is nothing like that.

          1. sigmaalgebra

            > blowhardDon’t be an idiot, say, to the tune of $200 million or so: Observe that very clearly he knew just what the heck he was doing: Proof: Look at the results: He shot to the top of the polls right away, e.g., was in the center of the debate stage starting at the first debate. His time on the TV news totally blew away all the other candidates — he was regarded as “ratings gold”. He spent next to nothing and got more coverage and name recognition than candidates who spent $100+ million.It was brilliant. Spend the least. Get the most. You didn’t notice that? You were taken in by his critics who want to shoot him down on style? His critics will shoot him down any way they can, and they used just style. That’s the best they can do.To his audiences, Trump looks determined. The number of votes a person gets to cast is not proportional to their IQ, education, or income. Instead, there are millions of people out there ready hear what Trump is saying, don’t care about style, and are voting for him.It’s about the votes. The votes. Just the votes. Like in sports, we’re talking the scoreboard.If look more carefully, he’s not a blowhard, not at all. E.g., look at the speech he gave to a Jewish group early in his campaign — he was dignified, charming, and used grown up vocabulary instead of the fourth grade stuff in his rallies.You also want to run down McDonald’s because they serve hamburgers and not foie gras? McD’s is going for their audience, and so is Trump. His audience? That’s where millions of votes are.Remember, when Sam Walton died, he was worth $100 billion, and that’s still more than Gates or Buffett

          2. Rob Larson

            I actually agree with you. The public image is that of a blowhard, at least to most people who are highly-educated and thoughtful. He is willing to make that his image because he knows that is the price of appealing to the mass of voters that most politicians never connect with. That’s why he speaks on a 4th grade level. (not an exaggeration – that’s literally where it tests out)In reality I think he (like his daughter) is far more intelligent than his public image.However, that still doesn’t make me comfortable with him as a president, because I don’t really know who he is, what he stands for, or what he will do as president. I don’t like the things he’s saying as he campaigns, but I don’t really believe he would do them if he were president, which gives me a small degree of comfort – I think he’s just saying it to appeal to the masses. But that’s a very small degree of comfort, because it still leaves a big question mark of what he really believes.

          3. sigmaalgebra

            > I don’t like the things he’s saying as he campaigns, but I don’t really believe he would do them if he were president, which gives me a small degree of comfortI’m not seeing that: “Bomb the shit out of ISIS”. Okay by me. “Make the US military so strong no one will dare mess with us”. If “mess with” is something serious, then our US military is essentially that strong now. E.g., if Iran pops a nuke off against Israel, then within 30 minutes Iran won’t pop off so much as a can of soda pop for at least 100 years, and there will be big, new, beautiful, perfectly round Lake Tehran, with glass lined hemispherical bottom that glows in the dark — but that has been the situation going back to, say, Ike. E.g., some years ago Israel got F-16i and F-15i which are extra long range models — guess what the ‘i’ abbreviates.> I don’t really know who he is, what he stands for, or what he will do as president.Of course you don’t know. Nearly no one does, for Trump or any politician. E.g., Obama regards climate change as the biggest problem facing the universe or some such, wants to shut down the US coal plants, wants subsidies for renewable energy that “would necessarily make electric rates skyrocket”, Obama’s little known electricity skyrocket statement.… try to admit 100,000 Syrians we can’t vet (what could go wrong with that?), won’t deport or jail illegal immigrants, even if they are convicted of a serious crime, sees criminals using guns so wants to use that as an excuse to take guns away from honest citizens, bowed to the leaders of China, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and France, a huge insult to the US, wants a backdoor on everything with an electron, won’t fix the VA, etc. My reading is that Obama actually hates the US and has been doing everything he can to hurt the US short of being impeached.W? He did Gulf War II — one of the worst US mistakes in all of history, from the first glimmer of an idea through way too many details, large and small, e.g., disbanding the army of about 7 million men, that is, putting them on the streets unemployed, unsupervised, with the weapons warehouses unguarded — hell of’a job, Bremer.Clinton who sent some cruise missiles after UBL in Akrapistan and let his Secretary of State, M. Halfbright call up her buddies in Pukistan and let them know the missiles were coming — who promptly notified UBL who, then got away. …LBJ who just would NOT see even just simple, common sense in Viet Nam. Nixon who wouldn’t either. Ford who wouldn’t either and finally to get the hell out’a there depended on Congress to say “not one more dime” or some such.Right, Reagan who campaigned on a balanced budget, compared with a household budget, but as soon as he was in office had John Stockman spend ASAP — can’t be right on both of those two.Right, we didn’t know nearly as much as we wanted to about any of our POTUS candidates.Yes, for some people there is a solution: Have a POTUS who is bought and paid for, a puppet on some strings, and during the four year POTUS term just pull on the strings.Otherwise, and for the rest of us, we have to fall back on reading their character.We can take some comfort knowing that the real power is in Congress. And our history shows that we can still get by with a seriously weak POTUS — the last term of FDR with congestive heart failure, the last months of LBJ where he was falling apart emotionally from his loss in Viet Nam and the loss of his career, the last months of Nixon before he was escorted out’a there, the last months of Reagan and his dementia (Alzheimer’s), the months when Clinton was 100% concerned about misusing a cigar, some dress stains, and what the meaning of is is, W crawling around on the floor of the Oval Office looking under the furniture for Saddam’s WMDs, and all of Obama.So, for Hillary, like her character?Jeb, Cruz, Rubio, Kasich — all bought and paid for by the big bucks people who want open borders, to import too much, export too little, and have a new version of slave labor that puts US citizens out of work?Trump? His character? One way to try to read character is to look into a person’s eyes, look at their facial expressions, tone of voice, body language, emotional extremes, and try to put boundaries on the whole and see inside it. Well, in some of his rallies, Trump has, first-cut it appears, been himself (one way to appear to be genuine is to appear to be especially frank and, thus, not covering up — that, too, can be an act) which is one way to try to provide credible hints on who he is.Ever see Hillary be herself? Obama?Net, do we know as much as we would like about Trump? Nope. Do we know more about him than Obama or W? Likely. Than Cruz or Rubio — how long have you even heard of those two? Kasich — what the heck do you really know about his record in Ohio?So, mostly what you know about Trump is not much less and mostly more than you know about the other politicians or candidates. So, net, with Trump have to, again, put up with the least bad.But some voters are noticing that Trump in his life at this point doesn’t need this campaign. Instead, he could spend much more time with Melania (how many men would give up even a hour with a wife like her?), his children and grandchildren, and/or put up more buildings. Gee, he could restart Trump Steaks! From those, some voters are concluding that he really wants to help the US. I doubt he will put Trump on Air Force One or up in lights on the top of the White House. And, sure, being POTUS will be a big boost to his brand and a great honor for his family for at least 100 years. Still, he doesn’t need the botheration. He doesn’t need this. And, there are some real risks — e.g., supposedly he is not as plump as he looks and, instead, is wearing one heck of a bullet proof vest. He needs this? I don’t think so.To me, he’s the least bad and a very long way ahead of Hillary.When you find out a lot more about Trump, or even Hillary, I’m all ears.

          4. Tom Hughes

            Unfortunately, there are millions of people — voters — supporting him as he promotes violence against those who disagree with him, or worship another way, or have a different skin color. That’s nothing to do with “style,” that is substance: the substance of a dangerous demagogue preying on the fears of people who are getting the short end of the stick in the modern, globalizing, tech-driven economy. Trump wants them to think their problem is the Chinese, or the Muslims, or the Mexicans — basically, anybody not white, not already on this continent — but that’s utter nonsense. Immoral, disgusting nonsense. What’s hurting Americans today is a rotten education system that feeds underqualified students to employers who can’t put them to work, and an overpriced health-care system that pulls out whatever money they can manage to put in their pockets. Yes, those are hard problems, and maybe no candidate has the right answer: but at least they are trying.

          5. sigmaalgebra

            > supporting him as he promotes violence against those who disagree with him, or worship another way, or have a different skin color.I’ve heard a lot of people making this claim, but from the primary sources, that is, from Trump, the video clips, the transcripts, and the position papers, I’m not seeing the claim as real.I don’t believe Trump is “promoting violence” at all. Yes, at times, in his rallies, when there are protestors, he reacts. His reactions have changed, and he has mentioned this. He jokes that if he says “Get’m out’a here”, then the newsies will say that he is mean. If he says something gracious, then the newsies will say that he is weak, a wuss.But, he often says “don’t hurt them”.One of the biggest examples was his Friday rally in Chicago that he cancelled. So, he arrived on his plane, got information from security that there was a huge protest aggressive against Trump supporters, and right away, to avoid violence, cancelled the rally. Class act. Just the right thing to do.IIRC, suddenly his rallies have had many fewer protesters. Maybe a reason is that some of the protesters got some legal advice from some of the Trump people, in particular, about supposedly a law that Obama got passed that makes it illegal to protest at any event that has Secret Service protection.As far as I can tell, some people wanted to protest at Trump rallies, and he used their protests to raise the interest level and/or entertainment value of his rallies. But, of course, he didn’t want to let the protesters win by getting him down.No doubt the job of removing the protesters is left to professional security staff, but also no doubt some Trump supporters might have been rude, nasty, pushed, maybe even thrown a punch — but I have not seen any good video clips. But, net, to me “he promotes violence” is just an unjustified attack by people who don’t like Trump for whatever other reasons.”worship another way,” I don’t see that at all. He is Protestant. He has close ties with the Jewish community, at least via marriage. He was very respectful of the Pope.If Trump were as you claim on religion, then he could have gone after Cruz big time — Cruz is way out on the edge of some wackos. But Trump just sets that stuff aside. I can understand that: My wife was from rural Indiana, and there was a lot of that stuff, including speaking in tongues, out there, some for a while from a sister in law of mine. The standard reaction: F’get about it and let it just die out, which mostly it does.Recently Romney went after Trump big time. But Romney is wide open to being totally nailed about his “magic underwear”. AFAIK, Trump didn’t make that attack.So, now we are down to the Muslims with their Islam. But Islam is not just a religion, not nearly. Instead, one of the biggies in Islam is to kill all the infidels, and that means nearly everyone in the US. It also means about half of the other Muslims, i.e., the Shiites and Sunnis regard each other as such infidels.A biggie now about Islam is that ISIS justifies their medieval horror show based on Islam. UBL based his 9/11 attack essentially on Islam. The Fatwas and Jihads, i.e., holy wars, are based on Islam. The Paris and San Bernardino attacks were based on Islam. The war in Syria is based on Islam; it’s essentially just one more battle in the 1000+ year old war between Sunni and Shiite Islam.So, the US just can’t look at Islam as just a peaceful religion or a religion separated from violence and war. We’d be total fools to do that. So, Trump has called for the US temporarily to halt nearly all Muslims coming into the US until we can sort out what the heck is going on. To me, that is a fully prudent position.For> a different skin colorI don’t see that. Instead, the US has, for some old reasons, a big problem with balance of trade. We’re importing too much, exporting too little, and importing illegal immigrants as a new version of slave labor. I’m against all of those, and apparently so is Trump.But each time Trump says that our balance of trade with Mexico, China, Japan, Viet Nam, etc. is a problem, right away he also says that he likes those people, just that their leaders are much smarter than our leaders. He says that he hires lots of Mexicans and that they are good workers, that he rents and sells real estate to Chinese, etc. He’s talking about balance of trade, not race.Not Trump, but me: I have a problem with Japan — I can’t understand the Japanese people. In the interactions I’ve had, they have been courteous beyond belief, so much so that I know I have no chance of reciprocating. Net, my attitude to Japan is the same as the attitude of Japan to everyone else — don’t mix and stay separate. All fine with me. I have some just astoundingly good Nikon camera equipment, fantastic Sony equipment, Mitsubishi TVs, an NEC CRT, etc. But, for our mixing cultures, let’s don’t.More generally, I can understand well enough from the Pyrenees east to the Urals and from the boot of Italy and the Black Sea north to the Arctic and England, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, but, for much of the rest of the world, I just don’t understand — haven’t done my homework. So, I’m not big on mixing.On racism, I want nothing to do with it. Mom was from Ohio; Dad from NYS; but for a while Dad’s job took him to Memphis. Bummer. Memphis was still fighting the Civil War. Bummer. My parents didn’t like it, and I hated it. I want nothing to do with racism or slavery. Nothing. One day a week, we had a Black maid for some housekeeping — Mom was a secretary in two offices, with her exquisite social skills, each at the top of the “power elite”. So, Mom made sure the maid got her Social Security contributions, nearly unique in all of Memphis. I got out’a Memphis ASAP and was glad to be gone. I still want nothing to do with racism or slavery; I don’t want to use a slave, be a slave, or have a slave take my job.And I believe that Trump is against racism and slavery.> a dangerous demagogueFrom the primary sources, I don’t see that.> the fears of people who are getting the short end of the stick in the modern, globalizing, tech-driven economy.Many US middle class citizens are very correct to be afraid. But that doesn’t mean that Trump is doing anything wrong.> the modern, globalizing, tech-driven economy.That’s mostly misleading propaganda here in the US to justify ripping off a huge fraction of the US middle class. In particular that “globalizing … economy” is far too much of a one-way street: They sell to us, but we don’t get to, they won’t let us, sell to them. It’s a ripoff, not “globalizing”. And, the loss of US manufacturing is not from “tech-driven” either and, instead, is just from a ripoff.For the real “tech-driven” part, the US is doing very well, is definitely the 900 pound gorilla: E.g., long ago Google was already getting more revenue from outside the US than inside. Likely so are Facebook and Microsoft.Trump wants balance of trade. Fine.Where did the current situation come from? Early on, from some unelected, foreign policy establishment wise men who wanted the US to run the world like a team of mules using carrots and sticks. The carrots were, say, get to join the WTO and have easy access to the US market. Now, China, Japan, and Mexico are essentially hooked on exporting to the US. If the US cuts off the imports, or even just cuts them slowly which is more likely, then those countries could have revolutions. The one in China could be especially bad. So, the US has a carrot — if one of those countries fails to be a good mule, then we can take away the carrot and leave them hungry.Meanwhile back home, we have 95 million able to work but not working and a true unemployment rate of about 25%.This whole foreign policy carrot thingy is dumb-de-dumb dumb for the US. My reading of Trump is that he wants to stop it, and that, just in doing so, he is easily in line “to be the greatest jobs president” ever.Sure, Trump is the first guy through the wall to make this change, and “the first guy through the wall always gets bloody. Always.” And as always, in business, government, anything, the people with their hands holding the reins and their finger on the switch and about to lose their way of doing things, really, lose their jobs, are going batshit crazy (Moneyball).> Yes, those are hard problems, and maybe no candidate has the right answer: but at least they are trying.My reading is that all the other candidates, 100% of them except maybe for Bernie, are bought and paid for by the people holding the reins and with their finger on the switch and that Trump is the only one “trying” to make things better for the US middle class.> a rotten education systemE.g., “no child left behind” and Common Core, really, teach to the bottom of the class and, thus, have nearly all the children “left behind”. Trump is for locally run schools. So, if some school system, e.g., parents and their elected school board, wants the kids taught JavaScript, so be it. Trump is very much for such things.

      3. JLM

        .The entire format of debates is anathema to actually receiving any information. It is impossible to explain anything in 90 seconds.The Republicans have learned a valuable lesson — debates (maybe debates with Trump involved) = boffo box office.Next time around, they should run the debates and bid out who gets to present them. It would be a huge moneymaker to deliver 25MM viewers for 180 minutes.Trump pulled out of the next FOX debate, which was scheduled without his agreement or consultation. He’s giving a long scheduled speech at AIPAC that night. What idiots to schedule a debate without checking with the candidates.Kasich has said that he’s not coming if Trump isn’t there — fearing the “kiddie table” effect. Smart.Cruz may be there debating a sock puppet.We really do need to reformat how the debate process works. Candidates should get up and present their plans — detailed plans — and then allow questions.Why do the Republicans present themselves to be tortured by a bunch of media who will never, ever, ever vote Republican. It is nuts.Of course, the Trump supporters are all low-educated, ill-informed, and angry. Keep believing that if it works for y’all.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

        1. sigmaalgebra

          > Of course, the Trump supporters are all low-educated, ill-informed, and angry. Keep believing that if it works for y’all.I’ll match education with anyone on AVC for money, marbles, or chalk. And I’ll do the same for Math SAT scores. I have a published paper, and it has a typo. Bet no one on AVC can find it.BTW, I like Trump.

          1. Lawrence Brass

            It escapes my understanding why such an educated person as you would like and probably vote for Donald. Does his words resonate with your intellect or your gut? Because we have agreed before he is just performing, right? Just words, nothing real.

          2. sigmaalgebra

            There’s a lot I don’t like about Trump. But, really, that is next to irrelevant: Instead, as a voter, I have to pick one, and to me by a wide margin Trump is the least bad.I strongly approve of his stated intentions on immigration, trade negotiations, US infrastructure, healthcare, Common Core, H1-Bs, ISIS, Russia, the rest of US foreign policy, the VA, the US DoD, taxes, bringing back the money US corporations have overseas, the EPA, the Second Amendment, essentially stop Muslims entering the US until we know more of what is going on, maybe watch some of the US mosques, the Department of Education. He is bitterly against what W did in Iraq, and I couldn’t agree more. That’s quite a list, and I suspect I left out a lot I would agree with.As a voter, about all I can do is listen to such things from him with no solid contract that he will really try to achieve them. But I can try to evaluate his character and, then, if I get a good evaluation, maybe have some hope that he means what he says. I’d like some solid guarantees, but none of the candidates are providing any such things — so, on guarantees I don’t have what I want but have all I can expect from politics.I see him as a no BS guy who is good at getting things done, very much wants to get the items on that list done, and is good enough as a leader to get power enough to get those things done.His position papers have less detail than I would like, but they appear to be more specific than those of the other candidates. So, his position papers are not good but are the least bad.Since this campaign season started, I’ve come to believe that I was long naive about just how much nearly all the politicians were bought and paid for, and I do suspect that Trump can’t be bought and, in that sense, is way above the rest. Make deals? No doubt — say, back to LBJ, have to give somewhere to get what want somewhere else. But actually buying Trump? Don’t think there is money enough on K Street to do that.I’d like to hear a detailed, well supported, and frank evaluation of Trump’s plans for the US economy from, say, Bernanke, but I see little hope of anyone getting that.There has been lots of mud thrown at Trump via the other candidates and the newsies. Instead, mostly I pay attention to the video clips and text directly from Trump. From those sources, I’m not bothered, repulsed, or offended by anything Trump has said or written, not about John McCain, Megyn Kelly, or the other candidates.I don’t think that Trump is a xenophobe — e.g., he does business around the world, married two women from Central Europe, and has hired a lot of Mexicans. I don’t see Trump as a racist: He is very close to the Jewish community and has an endorsement from Dr. Carson. I don’t see Trump as anti-women: It does look like he cherishes women and promotes some to powerful positions. It is clear that he has encouraged his two daughters to accomplish a lot in business, e.g., Tiffany is a student at Wharton.From his sons, he looks like a darned good father — that is evidence of his understanding of people and that he is nothing like the crude clod some of his critics claim.He likes to exaggerate. Okay, now we all know that.He’s partly a big picture guy who can take a 30,000 foot level look at details, but that’s worked for him in business and, maybe, what a POTUS needs to do.His apartment at the top of Trump Tower looks, say, gaudy, but that’s not a concern of mine.He works hard to have his name in print and on TV, but that’s part of his brand for his business and has helped him make a lot of money.That Trump Steaks are no longer for sale doesn’t bother me at all.That in business he gave campaign contributions to people I don’t like doesn’t bother me, either.That Cruz says that anyone who gave money to Hillary can’t be a “true conservative” strikes me as a grand insult to Cruz for his grand insult of the intelligence of voters. To say such a thing shows that Cruz is a dummy as a politician.

          3. PhilipSugar

            I might take the word angry out. That is not a bad thing. I think most people that support Trump are angry with the current state of politics. They are angry that the Republicans and Democrats really are just in it for politics not the people.

          4. sigmaalgebra

            Sure. Apparently the Trump rally theme song is something about we’re not going to take it anymore which for copyright reasons he can’t let sound on his video clips. Or “mad as hell and not going to take it anymore”. Or a revolution is kicking in the rotten door. Or “the first person through the wall always gets bloody. Always.”

      4. PhilipSugar

        I would say this…not supporting Trump. Let’s put a show of hands who has hired H1-B’s…I have.Who has never outsourced any, any whatsoever development overseas??My hand is up again.I think educating people in the U.S. and sending them back to their country is idiotic.When I hire them in the U.S. though….I find I pay twice the normal prevailing rate from huge banks. I get the best. But there are many big companies that take advantage.

      5. sigmaalgebra

        I have the actual transcript and read it carefully and paid close attention for the 24 hours after that debate.What he said in the debate was fine for a fast shooting, from the hip, debate context. And his sense of the situation was correct. And he added details in less than 24 hours and put out the quote above quickly. I was upset by his debate remark but for less than 24 hours.In the debate, he was trying to say that if some A. Wiles gets a US Ph.D., then we want him to stay. E.g., if someone finds an algorithm that shows that P = NP, then, sure, we want them in the US.Apparently soon enough Sessions told him that it was not about A. Wiles or P = NP but about just having a caste system to keep US citizens out of entry level jobs in the computer industry.

      6. Samrat Sunil

        If there were no H1b , you would not be typing in your mobile.. You would still have lived in Stone Age

    3. Salt Shaker

      Too bad Trump doesn’t apply the same logic when staffing his palace down in FL.

      1. LE

        He explained why he needs to do that. And he is right about that. It’s seasonal work. The local Wawa convenience chain on the East Coast, old, established and always politically correct (although they sell a ton of cigarettes to blue collar types) does THE SAME EXACT THING in their locations for the summer season. They bring in kids from Ireland.Here is an old article about the same idea:…The summer season has kicked off in this resort city on the US Atlantic coast and thousands of eastern European college students are flocking here to fill seasonal jobs snubbed by their American counterparts.

        1. Vasudev Ram

          Interesting. On what visa is this allowed. Didn’t know seasonal jobs for foreign workers was allowed in the US.

          1. LE

            I don’t know. I just know there always were Irish students filling the jobs at the shore Wawa’s during the summer periods and was told they are all students here just for the summer (then they go back home).

          2. Vasudev Ram

            Got it.

        2. Salt Shaker

          Not buying, LE. Mar-a-Largo is not in a resort community. Quite different than the Jersey Shore, Hamptons, Fire Island, etc.

          1. LE

            South Florida is a resort and vacation community and there are seasonal times there (Christmas and Easter for example). Try to book flights and hotels during that time period.

          2. Salt Shaker

            Palm Beach County has a pop of 1.3M. You really think they need to import “talent”? Has nothing to do whether you can or can’t book a flight to FL for Christmas. (You can’t book a flight to NYC easily then, either.)

          3. JLM

            .’Huh?Mar-a-lago is a private club. It is like any of a number of private, resort clubs. It doesn’t get any more resorty than this. is located in West Freakin’ Palm Beach where the only industry is relaxing and resorting.They even have a croquet pitch and require you to wear whites.It is like a richer persons Cloister.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

          4. Salt Shaker

            It’s a private club w/ access to a public labor pool, 1.3M pop in Palm Beach County. It’s not like the place is in a remote Caribbean island. Sure, “snowbirds” drive the seasonal pop in FL, but the county hardly clears out like the Jersey Shore, Hamptons or even Padre Island (where I’ve never been).

          5. JLM

            .These are H-2B temporary non-agricultural visas which have stringent requirements which are certified to be unfilled. This requires the employer to provide proof of public advertisement.They are limited to 66,000.…JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

  11. kevando

    No one else the military industrial complex pushing a Trump Clinton decision?

  12. Salt Shaker

    Donald Trump’s prison visit w/ El Chapo:”As you know El Chapo, I’m planning to build a wall and I was hopeful you could provide me with a recco on a good Mexican contractor. I was quite impressed with that mile long escape tunnel of yours, with its rail, ventilation and lighting systems. Brilliant, ingenious, just tremendous, and I’m not prone to hyperbole. Of course, we’ll need to build on your side of the border to insure that when the wall is done your boys aren’t trapped on the U.S. side. That would kind of defeat its purpose, don’t you think? The pundits in the states say it can’t be done, but as long as I have access to good, cheap Mexican labor I think I can get it done both on time and on budget. Well, not exactly my budget, but your gov’ts budget. It’s not as if I’m unsympathetic to cost considerations. Union labor up north is just killing me, although I’m hopeful to get their support in the gen election. I know you’re prob wondering why I’d risk coming to see you, especially since you threatened to have me killed and all. My beef isn’t with you, El Chapo. It’s with the actual murderers and drug dealers, not management. I get along great with business leaders. You and me we’re a lot a like, El Chapo. We’re both dealmakers who run family businesses. My kids have really stepped it up. Have you seen my show “Celebrity Apprentice?” You should give that a shot in Mexico, although you can’t use my catchphrase “You’re Fired.” That’s protected, well, not in the context you’re accustomed, but in a legal way. Perhaps “You’re Retired” would work and you just shoot the guys who don’t make the cut, sort of a Mexican spin. So, El Chapo, about that wall, can you help a good neighbor out?”

    1. JLM

      .Pretty damn ………………………………………….. funny!Did you know that Trump doesn’t drink? Says he never has because of his brothers’ drinking problem which led to his early death.How does he get those beautiful women — sober?JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

      1. Twain Twain

        Scarface …

  13. andyswan

    I believe Trump has “evolved” on this issue. He wants to modify the H1-B program to eliminate it from being used to displace American workers from low-skill jobs (which it frequently currently is), but wants to keep it in place for highly skilled high-talent workers.

    1. sigmaalgebra

      > highly skilled high-talent the H1-B program is the empty set.Trump has responded with “hire US citizens first”.

      1. Rohan

        That is not true. Yes, there are many in the low end of the talent pool. But, nearly every foreign born engineer and product manager in the bay area – at all the big companies and startups are on the H1-B.If you call them low skilled, that’s a different matter.

        1. sigmaalgebra

          We are talking apples and oranges.I claimed the H1-B workers are not “highly skilled high-talent workers” and you said “engineer and product manager in the bay area”. Not nearly the same things; instead, apples and oranges.I.e., we’re not talking a Ph.D. from Harvard, MIT, Princeton, Brown, Hopkins, Chicago, Berkeley, Stanford, or Cal Tech, hopefully in pure/applied math, instead of a junk field like computer science, and with a brilliant dissertation.I have seen some immigrants I can admire: One was from France, a student of Choquet. Another was from Canada, from the Department of Combinatorics and Optimization at Waterloo. Later he returned and was Chair there. Another was from Russia, a student of Kolmogorov and Gel’fand. Another was from France, a student of M. Loeve at Berkeley, and now back in France.I’ve seen a LOT of US citizens I can admire: J. von Neumann, A. Gleason, H. Kuhn, A. Tucker, S. Smale, D. Bertsekas, S. Shreve, G. Dantzig, P. Halmos, R. Bellman, L. Breiman, W. Feller, S. Ulam, W. Rudin, D. Knuth, E. Wong, J. Tukey, G. Nemhauser, R. Bixby and more.

  14. William Mougayar

    Too bad that Mayor Bloomberg didn’t decide to run a year ago when Trump was still stoppable.

    1. andyswan

      No one outside of NY likes him or cares about him at all. He’d get crushed.

      1. William Mougayar

        I’ve heard that argument before, but don’t buy it, because it’s speculative and assumptive. He would have appealed to a larger audience once he had decided to run, and started to communicate his agenda. If some have a mental block about him because of his banning super-sized sugar loaded drinks, that’s nothing compared to the absurd things that Trump has said, and yet he has gained some support.Bloomberg has 12 years of public office experience, which is 12 years more than Trump has.

        1. andyswan

          His instinct was to ban 17 oz Dr Peppers and to ban guns. Maybe 2 of my friends would consider voting for someone that thinks that way….they’ll vote for HRC or Trump before they pull the lever for a Nanny from NY.In any event– he didn’t have the foresight or desire or balls to run, so it’s irrelevant.

          1. LE

            Because he’s a grouchy old man. Grandad.

          2. JLM

            .You may want to sort through those friends, friend.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

        2. Salt Shaker

          I think Bloomberg would be a great Pres. He’s smart, pragmatic and gets things done, though a New York, liberal Jew with staunch 2nd Amendment views (anti-gun) does not play well nationally. Even the backlash he received w/ sugary drink consumption and manipulating the City Council for a third Mayoral term was very strong. I hope we’re not done hearing from Bloomberg in the political arena, though. He has a lot to offer….he’s the anti-Trump!

          1. JLM

            .Perhaps the saddest thing in America is that there are a bunch of people who would make great Presidents but the path to the White House is a torture test that many can’t endure.I’d bounce a basketball through a minefield to see Colin Powell — who I am currently very down on — as President. Or Condoleeza Rice or you.If I support YOU, I want to be Sec of OFFENSE. Not Defense, OFFENSE.Say, “yes”.BTW, wouldn’t it be nice to have a President who was not a draft dodger (Trump, Bloomberg both VN era draft dodgers.)JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

          2. Salt Shaker

            You can be my “official” speechwriter and my “unofficial” beer buddy. (Or maybe it’s the other way around.). We likely wouldn’t win a damn thing, but we’d have a blast! Unlike Trump, Bloomie (and even Bush), I’m no “draft” dodger. I like my draft cold and to the brim.

          3. JLM

            .Two conditions, we drink the beer BEFORE you give the speech and no TOTUS — teleprompter of the US.You talk with an Austin Beer “Peacemaker” in your hand. You finish one, I give you a replacement. Ice freakin’ cold, the kind that gives you a headache on the first sip.I’ll be right beside you with the script as you speak and if we need a quick re-write, hey, I’ve got it.Still, I want the Sec of OFFENSE gig.I could handle both and I’ll work for $1.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

          4. Salt Shaker


          5. Salt Shaker


          6. sigmaalgebra

            > Condoleeza RiceTubes. Aluminum tubes. She was totally convinced that they were really special things just for crucial, high stressed parts in high speed centrifuges for separation of uranium isotopes. Soon enough the US DoE told her, nope. But she refused to listen and continued to go public with the aluminum tubes thingy as a reason to invade Iraq in Gulf War II.Eventually it was clear that the tubes were just common, off the shelf, standard, ordinary, garden variety, everyday, simple minded, vanilla pure, nothing special, general purpose aluminum tubes that some Iraqis wanted and used to make rockets not much beyond what a US teen might make in his back yard.Bummer. Total bummer. One of the pieces of total nonsense that got us to blow precious US blood and treasure in Iraqi in Gulf War II. Bummer.IIRC, Powell was also taken in.Gulf War II — from initial conception to the very end, consistently, day by day, in small things and big ones, one of the worst pieces of US government ever. W, Cheney, Rummy, Wolfowitz, Bremer, Rice, Powell, and everyone in Congress who went along … — all need high places on the Grand World Shit List.

      2. LE

        Wanting Bloomberg is the ultimate “let some rich white guy who did well in business lead us” mistake. Bloomberg isn’t likable he is unlikable. It really ends right there. Trump is likable in a way that let’s him get away with murder. Similar to Bill Clinton and his famous smile (all winners and guys who cheat on their wives are grinners you know..). He’s a grouchy old man essentially. I am not a fan of guys like that anymore than I like guys like Joe Biden and their big phony politician smile. (He is not a grinner..)

    2. JLM

      .The appeal of Bloomberg is a quarter inch deep and three zip codes wide.Plus how many votes are lost banning Big Gulps?If he had any cojones at all, he would have thrown his hat into the ring just for grins. The guy is worth $40B and he doesn’t want to get his dress wet?JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

      1. William Mougayar

        Well, it’s a moot subject anyways, now.

      2. sigmaalgebra

        Darned good!But, but, but, Mike was also working to keep restaurants from putting so much salt in food and was for putting wind turbines on the tops of NYC buildings.That someone could be so silly but be so successful financially is comforting to know!

  15. Salt Shaker

    Trump=The dumbing down of America. He better hope he gets enough delegates for a 1st ballot win, or it’s gonna get real ugly in Cleveland.

    1. ErikSchwartz

      Yeah. The only thing more suicidal for the GOP than nominating Trump is not nominating him if he has a plurality.

      1. JLM

        .Don’t fret. In 2012, the GOP was condemned to wander the desert for 40 years on the heels of the weak Romney performance.In 2014, the electorate delivered the Senate, widened the majority in the House, swept state legislatures, grabbed more governships in memory.All because Obama said, “My policies are on the ballot.”Whoever the Republicans nominate — and for sheer entertainment value I hope it is Trump — will be riding that wave, running against the third Obama term, and smacking the crap out of Hillary (if she isn’t in jail by then).Hang on, this is going to be fun.This is a test of enthusiasm and passion. The Republicans own it this year but then they did in 2014 also. Nobody noticed it then.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

        1. ErikSchwartz

          Trump’s problem is that he’s getting pretty close to the same percentage of GOP voters in a field of 4 as he did in a field of 14. That is a really bad trend. If he doesn’t start breaking well over 55% in GOP primaries now that Rubio is out he has little or no chance in November.He is loved by 35-45% of the GOP electorate. He has huge unfavorables amongst everyone else.

          1. JLM

            .Yeah, well Trump was never supposed to get this far, was he?He’s a clown, a braggart, vulgar, offensive, vulgar, uncouth, vulgar, boorish. Let me catch my breath.The media hates him. The GOPe hates him. The DEMe hates him. Romney hates him.But, he’s also leading and nobody saw that coming, did they?Trump will figure it out on the fly.Ask Rubio, Carson, Christie, Fiorina, JEB BUSH, Santorum, Gilmore, Paul, Huckabee, Pataki, Graham, Walker, Jindal, Perry, McMillan whether they’d trade places.Remember those guys were all the experts, the professional politicians, the GOPe.The fix was in from the beginning, it was Jeb Bush but Trump tipped the GOPe’s apple cart.Like him or hate him what he has accomplished is nothing short of miraculous.He has energized and expanded the Republican brand beyond anyone’s comprehension.I am my District Chair and a Republican Election Judge in ATX and what I saw at my polling place was unbelievable. Every voter between 7:00 AM and 8:30 AM was a Republican. Every. Single. One.Let Trump be Trump. If he wins, so be it. If he loses — IAW with the rules, not some smoke filled room bullshit — so be it.But don’t miss this — HE WAS THE ONLY ONE AMONGST THAT LONG LIST WHO SAW IT COMING. And he was the only one smart enough to tap into it.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

          2. Vasudev Ram

            >He’s a clown, a braggart, vulgar, offensive, vulgar, uncouth, vulgar, boorish.I like that display of vocabulary in a single sentence.Well played.

          3. JLM

            .May have overused “vulgar” maybe not.Still, best man for the job.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

          4. Vasudev Ram

            I didn’t mean the occurrences of “vulgar”, though I noticed it.. There were five other words (nouns/adjectives) in a short sentence. That was a good amount to pack in.

          5. JLM

            .Indeed. Big sale at Sam’s.Churlish, uncivilized, cloddish, loutish, crude, ill-tempered, mean, lowbred, surly, vulgar.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

          6. ErikSchwartz

            Trump is the anti-Reagan.Reagan was none of those things.

          7. JLM

            .What is interesting is that he would likely govern in a similar manner. The nostalgia for Reagan is also the distance of history. The sympathy of the end of his journey.In many ways it is the coarsening of our society. I admit to recoiling at Trump’s utterances. Some are just so stupid. Commenting on Carly Fiorina’s face?If I were her husband, I would have sent DT to the dentist or challenged him to a duel. [One more reason we should legalize dueling.]Every President becomes more beloved after their presidency.Jimmy Carter — second worst President ever, best living ex-President ever.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

          8. Vasudev Ram

            >Every President becomes more beloved after their presidency.Good point. It’s like the saying “don’t speak ill of the dead”, which I’ve always thought was hypocritical, or a load of bull, likely said by people out of superstitious fear (they might come back to haunt you, etc.). If you could think or speak ill of them (meaning criticize them) when they were alive, why the hell not after they after they are dead.

          9. sigmaalgebra

            De mortuis nil nisi bonum and it goes back to at least 600 BC.

          10. Vasudev Ram

            Ah. That reminds me of another one, one middle school teacher used to quote (looks like, a bit wrong):nemo malus nisi probeturGoogled it now, and got links that show it may really be:nemo praesumitur malus nisi probeturNot sure, but I think means a man is innocent until proven guilty.Latin too.

          11. sigmaalgebra

            > Commenting on Carly Fiorina’s face?Said as a joke, say, at the level of a middle school locker room conversation, in a long interview in Rolling Stone. Likely also part of the tactic of getting attention? Yup.

          12. Vasudev Ram

            Pretty sure that’s all a part of his facade, and game, as @LE said.I’ve read a book or two by him, and while I take no sides in this game, it does not seem that he is dumb, as some of the media portray and some people here seem to think.Edit: improved/corrected wording of last sentence (to “media portray” and “people seem to think”).

          13. JLM

            .Trump jumps into the political game and out thinks all the pros while tapping into the burgeoning anger of the American electorate.How many times was he supposed to be out?The GOPe owned this industry and he gave them a wedgie and stole their chili.He is as smart as a whip.How many people in America can build a 100-story building?JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

          14. LE

            You know what the best part of all of this is? To be on the other side after saying “who would want to elect the inexperienced Obama” circa 2008. You know when everyone believed what he was saying (in an educated articulate and inspiring way of course)? Didn’t matter what he never did in his life.I remember it well, it was when I first met my current wife. Boy was she hep on him as was either her Dad or her Mom don’t remember. And all I thought was “no experience at all and nothing remarkable or outstanding”. And I (not fearing anything in our first dates) told her what my thoughts were. And how unlucky am I that I was right.Bottom line with Trump: Tremendous potential upside little downside with checks and balances.Bottom line with Hillary: Little upside quite a bit of downside (at least in terms of things that I care about that is).Of course Hillary is the “satisfice” choice for most people who are employed and don’t care much about taxes.

          15. JLM

            .’There is an anti-establishment anger out there, a sense that nobody is really looking out for the little man that the little man is now standing on each other’s shoulders and is going to rock the world.Folks have already forgotten about 2014 when the muscle workers handed the GOPe the Senate, a bigger House, the state legislatures, the governorships.What did they do with it?Nothing.This is a revolution and I hope that America rises up and fights it out. Get involved. Break a sweat.It is going to get ugly because revolutions are never bloodless.JLM (poorly educated, ill-informed)www.themusingsofthebigredca…

          16. sigmaalgebra

            The problem with Obama is that he hates the US and wanted to stick it to the US, and he did.It was clear enough that he hated the US, but the US was so eager to have a Black POTUS as retribution to get redemption for transgressions that people ignored the obvious truth. E.g., a biggie was when Obama, Hillary, and Richardson were at a campaign and the US National Anthem was being played. Each of Hillary and Richardson had their hand over their heart. Obama had his hands together below his belt. What if a US soldier did that? That was one. For two, on his apology tour, he bowed to the leaders of China, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and France. Deliberate insult to the US. Continue on with his lack of a college record, his buddies, etc. It was all clear as day. But, he got a free pass since any mention of anything negative about him would be regarded as racist.

          17. ErikSchwartz

            I remember when you used to be that excited about President Rick Perry 🙂

          18. JLM

            .I still like Rick but, face it, he couldn’t cut the mustard.I bumped into him the other day, he’s a civilian now, and he asked me who I liked — getting ready to twist my arm for some $$$ for Cruz.Shortish conversation thereafter.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

          19. LE

            He also has world class resilience, a young person’s energy (for someone who is 68) and doesn’t succumb to a nuclear holocaust of hate and pressure about what he is doing. You could see that as an advantage or a disadvantage I see it as an advantage. He is not worried about hurting feelings, only getting the job done.How many people would put themselves in a position that he is in, even with a security detail (I am talking if he loses the election)? To me that type of commitment is really admirable as long as you don’t feel it’s reckless.Most people (especially corporate types) cave under the simplest of pressure of the public blowhards. Or they fire someone for a simple misstep. Trump is loyal, and would stand by and defend his staff. Who is strong enough to do that type of thing? Nobody.Ithink I want him to win simply because I’m tired of everyone hating him so much and in a sense he is the ultimate underdog even though he is leading.I also like how all of the educated people are so bothered by what comes out of his mouth and think he is such an idiot because they don’t understand the strategy but most importantly because he doesn’t speak the king’s english or present himself in a dignified way (you know, like Mark Zuckerberg). Same type of people who think the only smart people are those who went to IVY league schools (like me). Not the Sam Walton types.

          20. JLM

            .My wife and I are proud members of the “poorly educated” and the “ill-informed”. We are incognito because we have a few too many degrees.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

          21. sigmaalgebra

            > He is not worried about hurting feelings, only getting the job done.Supposedly his book Deal claims that controversy is good.BTW, Trump went to Wharton, and U. Penn is in the Ivy League.

          22. sigmaalgebra

            > He has huge unfavorables amongst everyone else.So does Cruz. So does Kasich.Sure, Trump is a long shot until realize that either he wins or someone beats him, and now the only possibilities are Cruz and Kasich, and Kasich needs only 115% of all the remaining delegates and Cruz needs to hope that no one discovers how obnoxious he is.So, in the primaries, if Trump is not the best candidate, then he is merely the least bad — no real difference in the result.And, in the general, for the conservative Republicans, who the heck else are they going to vote for?

          23. ErikSchwartz

            They will just stay home. That will also cost them down ballot.

          24. sigmaalgebra

            Maybe they will go to the polls to vote for their Congressman, maybe Senator or Governor, and, while in the booth, heck, sure, also vote for POTUS.

          25. sigmaalgebra

            Cute.(1) The speaker is assuming that in the general election, a lot of Republicans not thrilled with Trump won’t bother to go to the polls at all. I don’t see that. I believe that they will still go the polls and, seeing the POTUS race with just Trump and Hillary, will cuss, swear, and spit but, as still Republicans, still vote for Trump over Hillary.(2) The speaker is talking about a lot of “data”. But for me, so far I don’t see much credible, i.e., numerical, data on a Trump-Hillary race. Moreover, for some quite credible data, on just generic Repub v Dem, the last two elections in House, Senate, and Governor’s houses had the Repubs doing well. Reason: People don’t like Obama? Maybe.Statements about unfavorability in exit polls? To me, those are just something for newsies to have something to talk about and, otherwise, with a dime won’t cover a 10 cent cup of coffee.In particular, for Trump’s unfavorability ratings, I see those as essentially inevitable side effects of how he got his publicity early on and not something fundamental about Trump. I suspect that now that he has his name recognition, he will start to have more middle of the road social graces and, then, make the unfavorability issue moot.The one with biggie, fundamental reasons for high unfavorability is Hillary.(3) The speaker seems to claim that Trump’s positions, say, on immigration, balance of trade, jobs, appealed to enough Repub primary voters but will not appeal to enough voters in the general election. I don’t see that. To me, of the Repub candidates, Trump has by far the widest appeal, all the way over to a lot of Dem voters. In particular, there are claims that Trump is bringing a lot of essentially new people to vote in the Repub primaries — maybe they will also vote and vote Repub in the general election.(4) So far Trump has been trying to win the Repub primary, not the general. For the general, it will be a long time from now to November, or from the end of the primaries on June 7th, to November for Trump to attack Hillary.Looks to me like Hillary is vulnerable to no end of attacks.(5) I don’t know how strong Hillary’s support really is, that is, among the voters. My guess is that nearly everyone thinks that she is a wicked witch of the East but that some Dems think that she is their wicked witch.For me:(A) From the last two elections where the Repubs did so well, and maybe from disappointment with Obama, it seems to me that, all other things aside, this year it is, net, better to be a Republican.This is not unusual: When was the last, strong Dem POTUS candidate? JFK?(B) I believe that Trump can do well with the Dem union workers, Blacks, and Hispanics — because they all want, in the famous one word answer, more, especially more JOBS. Trump has built some credibility here, and if only from her long history in politics Hillary has none.(C) From Hillary’s fees for her speeches — must have been some amazing speeches, or maybe the fees weren’t really about speeches — Hillary looks bought and paid for, and that is a sin Trump has pounded on very hard.(D) Hillary couldn’t beat Obama. And Bill won only because of Perot. So, now Hillary is seen as a strong candidate, against Trump? I’m skeptical.(E) Trump has proven to be darned good at getting votes. Beating all those 16 challengers, and the $200+ million or so they spent, is impressive evidence also for the general. What Trump did didn’t just happen. Instead, he is one smart cookie.Sure, FDR and JFK were strong Dem candidates. But I just don’t see Hillary as a strong candidate. I believe that Trump will beat Hillary “like a rented mule”. It will be a fun contest to watch. But we don’t have much good data now. To know we will about have to have the contest.

  16. christopolis

    Critical to the tech sector I tell you. Especially if you are a shareholder and want lower operating costs.

  17. David Semeria

    Here’s a song featuring, among others, a young Rowan Atkinson reacting to Reagan’s election. It contains the memorable line “I believe that pigs and even DC-10s can fly..”.Lord knows how people outside the States would react to Trump’s election…

  18. laurie kalmanson

    was going to post these yesterday, but they work just as well today

    1. PhilipSugar

      That says more about letting poor people have kids and supporting them than anything else.

  19. Semil Shah

    I can’t find the source, but I believe Trump has recently been on record saying he’s softening his stance on immigrant entrepreneurs coming into the Valley. I think I heard him say that on the radio. Of course, he could have 19 positions on immigration and there’s no way to know what is real. ;-(

    1. JLM

      .There are two issues at play here:1. The H-1B program which is a visa program and not an immigration program; and,2. The foreign student program which is also a visa program.Trump has consistently said that foreign students educated in the US in STEM majors should be allowed to stay in the US under an IMMIGRATION status rather than a visa status.Currently, a foreign student who completes his studies must immediately return to their home country (unless they are lucky and have been entering the H-1B lottery since they were freshmen) except for a provision that allows them to extend their stay in the US (under the same visa) to receive “pertinent” technical training.Of course, there are a million faux programs that have sprung up. The big rub is that they are not supposed to be able to accept compensation for this training.Trump has consistently said that foreign students who receive STEM degrees should be able to stay in the US under an immigration status.Two entirely different issues.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

      1. sigmaalgebra

        Also, for immigrants with US advanced educations, Trump said that we should “hire US citizens first”.Now, let me get this straight: US families struggle to get their kids through college. But they are also taxed by the US Federal Government, and also significantly by their state governments, to fund universities, e.g., state universities and the NSF. Then that state and Federal funding is used to support students — tuition, room, and board — worth tens of thousands of dollars a year where the students and their families are too poor even to buy in US dollars a McDonald’s Happy Meal.Yes, I never paid even a dime for my research university graduate studies, MS and Ph.D. But since then that university has given its grad school slots to many students from Taiwan. And I can assure you that the Taiwan students are not better than the US students in classes with me in grad school.And this effort brings down US salaries? Darned right: Indeed, look at the work of Norman Matloff at UC Davis: It was deliberate. The big guys in US business and national security had an econometric calculation done to find how many students would be needed to be sure STEM field students couldn’t buy a house. Then the NSF wrote into research grants that so many students had to be supported, and, hint, hint, could get students from Taiwan.If those students stay in the US, then bummer for US citizens and taxpayers. If they return to Taiwan, then bummer for US national competitiveness. We’re talking an ugly labor-capital battle — labor is forced to pay for competition for their labor. Total bummer.”Hire US citizens first” is a good, first step.

      2. mikenolan99

        “Donald Trump said that it is unfair and bad for US economy and now it’s the time to put a full stop on H1B visas. ““I know the H1-B very well. We shouldn’t have it, it’s very, very bad for workers. I don’t support H1B visa because it is taking away jobs from Americans. Indubitably, I have also used it but I stopped using it now”, said Trump in the Republican debate at Miami University.”

      3. Chimpwithcans

        I have studied overseas on visas, hold 2 passports, worked in multiple countries including Australia which models itself almost ENTIRELY on USA – in my experience a visa program = an immigration program. It is all part of the same system, and to separate the 2 out amounts to semantics. (Again, in my experience) one’s ability to take advantage of a visa program and use it to better ones immigration status depends entirely on the person involved….it requires serious HUSTLE but it is all part of the same system and the cream rises to the top and gains a short term visa – a longer term visa – residency – citizenship.In my experience – Visas are immigration programs to take advantage of – not to bow down to as defining your destiny. Although government would have you think that.

        1. JLM

          .Not sure where you’re going with this.An immigration program — even one tied to a specific visa like the E-3B program — ends up with an “immigrant”, a person who is individually entitled to remain in the US for the rest of their life and who may or may not elect to become a US citizen.A visa program entitles an individual to visit the US for a specified period of time (tourist visa), study in the US and then return home upon completion of those studies (student visa) or to work temporarily in the US (H-1B, H-2B as an example).These — the difference between permanent residence and temporary visitation — are not semantical differences. They are real and structural and may be obtained in different methods (application v lottery).The US has a fairly strict and organized LEGAL immigration program though Pres Obama fails to recognize that reality.Having said all of the above, the US is well served by its LEGAL immigration program as we are, after all, a nation of immigrants, assimilated immigrants.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

          1. Chimpwithcans

            Not my most coherent comment – sorry – I was caught up trying to insert my life experience into a debate about which i know very little…!Ask me one on sport 🙂

          2. JLM

            .How much does UNC win by in the Final Four Championship game?Careful — loaded question.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

          3. Chimpwithcans

            Ha – I see they lost no? I love basketball of all the US sports – but I don’t follow as much as i used to. Is UNC your team?

      4. JJ Sung

        That’s not technically correct.As an undergraduate international student (F1 visa status) right before you graduate you can petition for OPT status where you can stay in the US (don’t have to go home) and work for a year. OPT is an extension of your F1 status that comes with a work permit and therefore you can be compensated for your work. If you majored in a STEM major you can then extend your OPT for an additional 17 months after the 12 months of OPT runs out – 29 months total.And when you apply for H1B your company has to prove they will pay you at the market rate (prevailing wage) for your job based on your position, title, and where you live. The metrics come from an official government book that gets updated every year.As an international student with a STEM major (bioengineering) that used all those visas + currently on an H1B I have to say I am fairly compensated and do not consider myself a ‘slave’. There is obviously less flexibility as changing jobs can be difficult but I chose to come to the US and can choose to leave as well.They could definitely give STEM majors an easier time though, try explaining to an immigration officer that you are on the STEM extension of the OPT extension of the F1 visa and that although you are under a student visa you are working. Lots of fun hours spent in secondary inspection while the immigration officers brush up on the intricacies of the F1 visa.

    2. Lawrence Brass

      That is the way of the chameleon, just say the crowd you are speaking to whatever they want to hear, later do whatever you want to do. This is the way of populism, this is the way of south american politics as I know it. Any south american will recognize this type of shit miles away, we are used to it, we have been abused by it for decades.

      1. JLM

        .You ain’t the Lone Ranger, Tonto.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

    3. sigmaalgebra

      Trump didn’t do anything wrong: Just look at the transcripts. That is, just as taught in high school term paper writing, look at primary sources. Just f’get about what the newsies write: They are just after eyeballs for ad revenue and are, in a word, disgusting.

  20. Mario Cantin

    What do you think of the possibility expressed by Chamath Palihapitiya that Bloomberg could run at the last minute as an independent to advert the possibility of Hillary winning, assuming Trump wouldn’t in the end?

  21. JLM

    .The H-1B program is a visa program and not an immigration program. It is completely controlled by the employer (and the H-1B puppy mills) who provides the job. If the H-1B job holder loses his job, they must obtain a different work status authority to remain in the US — good luck with that.This unequal employer-employee power relationship shows up in the worst possible ways — unequal pay, the inability to object to working conditions.Once upon a time, this was called indentured servitude and it entailed Cromwellian persecuted Irishmen taking up the tobacco trade in either Virginia or Barbados in the mid-1600s under the guise of indentured servitude which entailed conditions worse than black slavery which was a hundred years later.The program is used 98.5% for computer science related jobs.There is no requirement for the job to have been offered to an American citizen and there is no requirement to pay a market rate of compensation.Last year there were 233,000 applications for 65,000 such visas and an additional 20,000 visas under what is called the advanced degree exemption.American universities graduated approximately 62,000 computer science and IT grads — undergrads and 20,000 graduate degrees. This number is steadily increasing. The total number of American university college grads — undergrad and graduate students is sufficient to meet the current demand.The H-1B basic requirement for an applicant is only to have an undergraduate degree in a pertinent subject.Research from places like the Center for Immigration Studies shows that employers have used the H-1B program to absorb as much as 80% of the new employment opportunities which means American are going jobless while H-1B holders (remember they have to have a company sponsor, a job) are filling these jobs.Look now to the Southern Cal Edison debacle.April 2015, SCE lays off 400 IT workers following on the heels of 100 IT workers being bought out. A total of 500 IT workers are shown the door. High wage technical workers with California benefits.SCE then hires a couple of labor companies from Bangalore (Infosys) and Mumbai (Tata Consultancy) to replace about 70% of the workers with the balance of the work being shipped offshore. These workers come to the US.Infosys and Tata are what is known as “H-1B puppy mills.”Note the cleverness of this — the H-1B visa is held by either Infosys or Tata while the real employer is SCE. Infosys and Tata handle all the lottery applications — meaning they handle whatever fraud is involved.The wage rates — obtained during a DOL investigation — are less than half of the former SCE rates. The offshore rates are approximately 25% of the former rates.When asked why? SCE said, “To stay competitive.”You will be tempted to call such a statement “bullshit” when you realize that SCE is a public utility whose entire cost base is folded into its rate base but then you’re a cynic, aren’t you?Big points:1. This is an abusive employment program in which jobs for Americans are diverted to the H-1B program.2. H-1B mills like Infosys and Tata enter thousands of applications (know that there is rampant fraud in these application with a 1 in 3 chance of any application winning in the lottery) in the random drawings for H-1B visas and then peddle the workers to the employers like cattle. It is one step removed from slave trade.3. There are more than enough American CS and IT grads to fill these jobs and there is no requirement for an employer to offer these jobs to an American first.4. The actual practice is that the jobs do no pay a market or prevailing wage — SCE’s example is the norm.5. This sets up a very unhealthy employer-employee relationship which is abusive.Put me with Donald Trump in opposing this program based on my desire to employ Americans and for basic fairness in the workplace.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

    1. obarthelemy

      Interesting, thank you.

    2. JoeK

      It is ridiculous to even start to compare this to the slave trade JLM. There is no question, none whatsoever, that H1-B visa holders a) choose the opportunity to work and live in the United States, and b) can choose to leave the United States if the conditions are not acceptable to them.

      1. JLM

        .Joe, this is a literary technique called “hyperbole” which is intended to over dramatize an analogy to draw attention to the subject.It is usually not too subtle. Like comparing someone to Hitler.I apologize for using it.Yes, I recognize that this is not really slavery but thanks for pointing it out to me before I began to believe it myself.Guilty — pleads JLM to the use of hyperbole.Have a great day.JLM

        1. LE

          Hyperbole – Often used by successful real estate developers (or people running against Dan Quayle).That said I am guessing that in ordinary people’s minds there is a difference when you invoke a third rail issue. Something that they are sensitive to. At that point free speech goes out the window unless of course you are a comedian or entertainment professional who has an unlimited license to say and do what the rest of us should be able to do.

          1. JLM

            .Change “often” to “always.”I was a real estate developer for 25 years, just like Hitler.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

        2. JoeK

          Just for the record, top marks for your response. Just the right balance of humor and reason.I’ll tone mine down too.I simply meant that the H1-B program, to the vast majority of workers, is an opportunity that changes their lives for the better. And while being tied down to one employer is hard, unless you’re from India or China, there is a fast track to permanent status. Most Americans earn less than a 1/3 of what the typical H1-B worker earns, especially one in computer science.I’m with you on the abuse of the program and the desire to cost-cut, but even that I accept is the way of the world now – blue collar workers have been feeling that pinch for decades now.

          1. JLM

            .The foreign worker is being exploited while the American worker is being screwed.Who is winning?The employer.Who is crying “wolf” about the H-1B program?The employer.The H-1B program is not an immigration program leading to permanent status. It is a time specific work visa with the ability to extend it.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

      2. sigmaalgebra

        Once the H1-Bs are in the US, they are in a very dependent situation. They stay because their situation back home is often worse. Still, in reality, they are treated like slaves. It is a new version of slavery.

        1. Drew Meyers

          If you take that angle – you could essentially say capitalism / any job is the same thing, no? Many people stay in jobs they hate/despise for years… why is that? They need the money and their alternatives aren’t great. A new form of slavery.

          1. sigmaalgebra

            No: First it is a matter of degree.Next, there is a fundamental point: Employers are supposed to be in competition so that, if an employee is treated really badly. then they can get another job. Quite generally, if that situation does not hold, then employers, tyrannical middle managers, overly eager HR heads, etc. can make life just hell for employees. Historically in the US, that was one of the reasons for unions.Quite generally, need a healthy economy where employers are competing for employees. A huge problem now is that mostly employers don’t have to compete.For the H1-B employees, the H1-B program is designed so that the employees are stuck with just one employer. Then in principle the worker has to fall back on candidate other employers in their home country, that they just left due to poor prospects.I’m sorry about the sad condition of employees in some poor countries, where the workers are treated as slaves, but I don’t want those workers treated as slaves in the US. I don’t like slavery — don’t want to use a slave, be a slave, or compete in the job market with slaves. No, slavery does not have to be part of capitalism.A pillar of the GOPe is open borders so that the people big in the GOPe will be free to import as much in products and labor as they wish. Then they can get rich for a while until the US dollar falls enough to stop US product imports. Another description is globalization but where only the GOPe is so open. If other countries, China, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, essentially all of Europe, did that, then the socialist workers would dump the government right away. Other advanced economies are careful to protect their domestic workers and businesses. Now the US needs to do that, also.Else the US will become very wealthy Gates at Microsoft, Zuck at Facebook, Page and Brin at Google, Ellison at Oracle, F. Smith at FedEx, etc. selling to the world with the US population shrunk to next to nothing and what is are just slaves from poor countries. Great for Zuck, etc. — total bummer for tens of millions of US voters. Voters? Did hear voters? Hmm, voters — how ’bout that?

    3. sigmaalgebra

      Excellent. More details via Prof Norman Matloff at US Davis. It’s been going on for decades, and Trump will at least seriously trim it back.With that program, there’s no way a US citizen should go into computing.I’m immune because the key to my startup is some math where both Silicon Valley and US university computer science departments have more hen’s teeth than people who could read the core math in my startup.

    4. Twain Twain

      Just went to event in SF where a founder, who’s raised $10 mln from Andreessen Horowitz, talked about automating 70% of project management, sales and development (in other words most of the freelancers currently registered on their marketplace).Their plan is to automate as much of the engineering in agencies as possible: lawyers, mgmt consultants, architects, accountants etc.So … robots do more engineering => US and H-1B workers all affected.He said the role that will take the bots longer to replace is Design because it’s “fuzzier, more subjective, more creative”.Everything else, he believes they can put “Natural Language over a state machine” and from there the bots will automatically be able to provide off-the-shelf website & app builds for the customer.Afterwards, I asked him if Natural Language also wasn’t “fuzzier, more subjective, more creative” than a set of canned, structured command code. He didn’t really have an answer for that.Then he said how his sales people are able to “read between the lines” of what clients want, so I asked him if he thinks robots can also do that type of subjective interpretation and “read between the lines” to make clients happy.He didn’t have an answer for that either.In any case, developers in SF are building AI to replace not only themselves but other workers too.Just like call centers got automated, so too will sales and engineering development roles in SV.*…@fredwilson:disqus

    5. Jess Bachman

      A bit late to this.. but thank you for the non-bubble perspective. I didn’t know the other side until now.

    6. PhilipSugar

      I agree with all of your comments except that there are plenty of grads to fill the jobs. Having been hiring for 20 years in the space if you have talent you have no problem getting a job.All the rest are spot on. See my comment well below.I have always if you get a STEM degree in the U.S. from an accredited school they should staple a green card on it.The interesting part is that nobody wants to have a discourse like this. The want a 141 character tweet.

  22. Jaikant Kumaran

    Here is what makes America great. 6 out of the 9 kids awarded for scientific innovations at the 2016 Intel Science Talent Search are American Indians. Their parents must have been cheap labor to start with, but their kids pay back by continuing to keep America great. What goes around, comes around.

    1. Kirsten Lambertsen

      I’m glad you’re here at AVC. It’s good to get your perspective.

      1. Jaikant Kumaran

        Thx Kirsten.

    2. Dave Pinsen

      Indian Americans (American Indians refers to a different group here). And not all Indians immigrate here as H-1Bs.Two other issues related to this: – The country that sends us more immigrants than any other is Mexico, not India. Not a lot of Intel Science Talent among Mexican immigrants to the US. – India, and other developing countries, need scientists and engineers more than we do. What consequences does this brain drain have on the developing world?

      1. Jaikant Kumaran

        The point was, these kids are what they are because they are in America and not in any other country.Fixing immigration issues doesn’t mean trampling over the fabric of society. Which is the rhetoric I sense, maybe I am wrong.

        1. PhilipSugar

          I just cannot agree more. That is what makes America great. But we need to make citizenship a part of that and portable

      2. Simone

        Dave, if you were born in a developing country and aware that our time on earth is limited, would you sit and wait for your country to develop? or perhaps take a chance to make the most of your life? And as an immigrant, I can assure you it is not fun and parties.. it is a difficult choice that takes many years to pay off and we don’t end up with a ‘second home country’ as most of us immigrants naively assume when dreaming of the most civilised, western culture countries

  23. JLM

    .In many ways the Employment Based Immigration Preference EB-3 shows the corruption and lack of wisdom of the H-1B program. An EB-3 immigration visa for a skilled or professional worker requires that the job has been offered to an American or that no such qualified American exists.The application is handled by the Department of Labor who must certify the facts.Very few such applications are approved because they cannot meet the American candidate requirement.Is there something about wanting to employ or the desirability of employing Americans that I am missing?JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

  24. JLM

    .Here is a pretty good article on the abuses in the H-1B system by the NY Times. It bears reading but only if you have an interest in the facts.…In particular, note the confirmation of the work of H-1B puppy mills.This is the face of corruption.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

    1. sigmaalgebra

      > “The H-1B program is critical as a way for employers to fill skill gaps and for really talented people to come to the United States,” said Ronil Hira, a professor at Howard University who studies visa programs.Horse feathers: There are no “gaps”; the people are not “really talented”; and if there were “gaps” don’t expect the home countries of the H1-Bs to fill them.I’ve published a paper in computer science that has a typo; bet there’s not a single H1-B in the country who could find the typo. Bet there’s not a single computer science professor in the home countries of the H1-Bs who could find the typo.Early in my career, before the H1-B scam, in one period, I sent a few resumes, and in the next two weeks I went on seven interviews and got five solid offers. The problem: I was making each year six times what a new, high end Camaro cost, putting my wife through her Ph.D., saving money rapidly, and soaking up new material in my career like a sponge. So, apparently some people thought I was getting paid too much.Later, after the H1-B scam, I sent 1000 resumes and got back next to nothing.I’ve never been in court for anything except minor traffic violations, never used illegal drugs, never used legal drugs illegally, never been bankrupt, never been charged with a serious crime, am healthy, and have held a US DoD security clearance at least as high as Secret and have never had a security clearance denied or revoked.I’ve taught computer science at Georgetown University, undergrad, and Ohio State University, grad. I’ve published in applied math, mathematical statistics, and computer science. I’ve written high quality software in several languages for several operating systems. I’m well versed in the important algorithms and data structures.Once I needed an algorithm so invented one. It turned out that I’d reinvented k-D trees, a relatively well respected algorithm, e.g., in the book by Sedgewick.In all of US information technology, I am 100%, absolutely, positively unemployable. Finally I became an entrepreneur. While my project seems to be in computing, there is some core math that means that the computer science people can’t compete with me — US or foreign, students or professors.But I’m unemployable.The forces behind the NSF funding foreign students and the H1-B program has made technical level jobs in computing not for US citizens. Bummer.I have friends and former colleagues in a similar situation.Trump sees this.

  25. Aashay Mody

    I’ve read a number of the comments and my biggest problem with Trump is that you have no idea what you get. He could say one thing today, and completely change his mind tomorrow.Whether he is for or against H1B or any other policy for that matter is largely moot because for me a truly great leader is one with conviction who believes in his/her vision no matter what others think and in spite of what others think. A great leader has the ability to convince others of his/her opinions. A great leader is not a flip flopper who changes his mind as he pleases to appease the public.This is why I would never vote for Trump. #MakeDonaldDrumpfAgain

    1. LE

      for me a truly great leader is one with conviction who believes in his/her vision no matter what others thing (sic) and in spite of what other think.Disagree. What you are saying is to rigid and not flexible like it needs to be. Negotiators can’t be that rigid. That becomes a game of chicken that doesn’t lead to the right place. It isn’t negotiation. Takes no skill. (I run into people like that from time to time..)I don’t like that behavior by anybody. That’s why we have the gun mess right now. (Although from a strategy perspective it makes sense on the part of the lobby…) Or the congress that is deadlocked over the past few years.

      1. Aashay Mody

        I don’t mean that one should be completely rigid or inflexible but rather have the courage to convince others you are right through your actions and their results rather than just talk.

    2. Vasudev Ram

      >I’ve read a number of the comments and my biggest problem with Trump is that you have no idea what you get. He could say one thing today, and completely change his mind tomorrow.A little naive, I think. Haven’t you noticed that many politicians do that?You should really have a problem with all of those who do that, then.(Which is the right thing.)

  26. Tom Labus

    The 5k iPhone will make everyone happy!!!!Plus the tariff war

  27. Matt Zagaja

    Although I am as a general principal pro-immigration/immigrant, I decline to endorse to arguments put fourth by most proponents of H1B visas. @JLM astutely linked to the New York Times article that masterfully used data to show how it is being abused by most companies today. This of course does not negate the value of H1B to start-ups who might need someone who is a world renowned machine learning expert, but I think corporate America is being disingenuous when they cry about a talent shortage. They have at their disposal in America the most educated generation of citizens in the history of the world. JP Morgan and Thomas Edison would weep tears of joy if they had access to such an abundance of smart workers.

    1. sigmaalgebra

      > This of course does not negate the value of H1B to start-ups who might need someone who is a world renowned machine learning expertThey won’t get that via an H1-B. Not a chance.There is really only one such “expert” — Leo Breiman, long at Berkeley. Breiman was a darned good mathematician — one of his books is one of my favorites, I used it as a source on regular conditional probabilities in my Ph.D. dissertation. There is likely not a single H1-B in the country who knows what a regular conditional probability is. Nearly no computer science profs know, either.

  28. creative group

    After a through review of the posts it definitely appears like some stumpin for Trumpin.If HRC wins the election there will be four years of conspiracy theory rhetoric. A true Independent is not provided with viable choices. #twopartysystemsucks#termlimits

    1. pwrserge

      If HRC wins, there will be a civil war.

      1. creative group

        pwrserge:One has already begun in your mind. No end in sight. Doubt you will understand it.#twopartysystemsucks#termlimits

        1. pwrserge

          Imagine the Bundy ranch, except a thousand times larger and willing to shoot first.

          1. creative group

            Psychoses: An acute or chronic mental state marked by loss of contact with reality, disorganized speech and behavior, and often by hallucinations or delusions, seen in certain mental illnesses, such as schizophrenia, and other medical disorders.———–We Americans realize what actually makes this country the greatest in the World that people around the world risk their life and limb to get here to escape their governments not based upon democracy.The Fascist, Reich ideology since existence has propagated bigotry, racism, separatism and taking the country back to the pre-civil war era in which they continue to forget they lost. The reiteration is being repackaged. It will fail as well as the mindset pushing it.History repeating itself.…—————–#twopartysystemsucks#termlimits

          2. pwrserge

            I hate to break it to you, but it’s the left wing pushing for segregation always has been. Or do we need to talk about “black spaces” and SJWs?A minimal government, which has always been the objective of the conservative movement, can’t be totalitarian by definition.You can keep up your delusion, but the GOP has this election cycle in the bag. Your leading candidate is a felon and the other is an open communist.EDIT: Thanks for showing a video of the paramilitary wing of the Democratic party. Or did you forget who dominated politics in the Jim Crow South?

          3. creative group

            pwrserge:disecting selective history becomes a job when the diatribe is the same. We are Independent and realize both the Democrats and Republicans are destroying America doing the Ultra Right and Left bidding. Where did those segregationist Dixiecrats end up? Selective history.The video was highlighting the demagoguery being sprewed by Trump is nothing new.

          4. pwrserge

            Yeah… Bull.

          5. creative group

            pwrserge:News flash! We have always been registered Independent’s. We care about the preservation of the American Democracy and not your foreign thought’s of a fascist and racist revolution.#twopartysystemsucks#termlimits

          6. pwrserge

            You can throw all your “ist” BS out there all you want. The US is not now and never was a Democracy. If you don’t like that, go run to Canada.

  29. Kirsten Lambertsen

    Pretty interesting analysis on where this all might be headed here (How Paul Ryan will pick our next president):

  30. Andu @

    After Obama there can’t be a Trump.

    1. pwrserge

      Keep telling yourself that while Trump pulls record GOP voter turnouts.

  31. James Burns

    Given that there are a lot of people that hate both Trump and Clinton, seems like 2016 would be the best opportunity in history for an Independent to run and win as they would get votes for simply not being Trump or Clinton.

  32. sigmaalgebra

    BattleTrump v Hillary?To settle this difference will be a battle. Well, the good news is that we definitely will have an election. Then still better news is that the election definitely will be sufficient to settle the battle.Order of BattleTrump is the smart cookie, energetic, determined, no BS, “alpha male” (Ann Coulter) billionaire.Hillary only sometimes dresses like a man, is not a woman, but is not at all a man, either, isn’t really married, is really angry and bitter about some things, apparently can’t control her drives, is nasty, nearly always lies, is easy to hate, and is in poor health.Hillary is a top, center crown jewel example of how a bright mind and a lot of determination can still mean just 0.0000 common sense and basic judgment.That’s the good news.Better Hillary NewsStill better news: She (lacking a more accurate pronoun, and I apologize to all real women) has TravelGate and altogether more gates than Intel’s largest FPGA. Moving on up in the news, her record as Secretary of State was a disaster, e.g., killing the US Ambassador and turning Libya over to ISIS so that Qaddafi could get a radical Islamist Jihadist terrorist bayonet enema; within the Geneva Convention? I don’t think so.Much better news, she is Bill’s means of shutting down Bill’s victims from Bill’s wandering proclivities.About the best possible news — she has some really serious legal problems.Vulnerable HillaryA good way to sink Hillary is just to say that she is an Obama third term, and now the US is done with an EOE, affirmative action POTUS.The only reason Hillary is in the race is that she is an out of control, angry, left over from the days of the rabid, bra-less, no cooking, no cleaning, no loving a man, radical feminazis. Since they are weak, sick, or dead limbs on the tree, Darwin has a great solution, maybe done in just another generation or two.Trump v HillaryTrump will blow by Hillary like an F-22 blows by a rusty bicycle.Here’s a question: Of the 50 states, name one, even one, where Hillary has a good chance.ImmigrationOn H1-B immigrants, nope — they are not important for anything in the US, really, are driving US citizens out of high tech and, thus, just guess, driving US tech to the level from which the H1-Bs came. That is, with H1-B, the US can try in high tech to be more like India, Taiwan, Greece, South Korea, etc.Notice that the US gets nearly no H1-Bs from the British Empire, France, Germany, Sweden, Norway, Austria, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, etc., that is, from countries that actually have good educational systems and otherwise have their country out of the open latrine stage.Here’s a shocking difference: In WWII, France really took it in the teeth, gut, etc. Much of London was leveled, and the rest of England was long on very short rations. Germany was nearly leveled, pushed back to piles of rubble. Then for about 50 years, half of Germany was under the heel of the Soviet boot. Norway was raped. Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia were walked over.India, Taiwan? Not much change.Since then? India, Taiwan — not much change. The European countries so badly damaged in WWII? Back to leading the world in quality of life.Here is some of what (IIRC) Lithuania and Germany have done:…There are some significant differences, guys. Clear enough?Other than stopping H1-B abuse, e.g., as in the case at Disney in Florida Rubio finally explained, Trump will actually, effectively enforce the US immigration laws. Amazing. Think of that! How astounding! Can the US endure such a thing, I mean, actually enforce the laws? Who’d ever think of that?A Little on TrumpWe don’t want as POTUS someone completely unable to function between their ears. Well, if Hillary could function at all, then she’d stay as far away as possible from any competition with Trump.Hillary: Trump cherishes women, but of course that can’t apply to you. Hillary, you are about to be beaten like “a rented mule”. Some good will come from it: Your suffering will be for decades a grand warning to women to be, uh, women.Look at it this way: At the beginning of this, it was clear enough to Melania that Trump would win the White House. Now, on this claim, Melania was smarter than essentially everyone in politics and the media: George Will — now he will have to called George Won’t. Charles Krauthammer — Charles Nichtshammer. David Brooks — David Broke. William Kristol — Cracked Crystal. Those 22 authors in the special anti-Trump issue of The National Review who soiled themselves in public — hit the showers, guys.And Trump has been smarter than the people who shoveled a few hundred million dollars funding the Republican losers. They spent a lot of money and lost. Trump spend about the least and won. Biggie difference.Net, Trump’s a smart cookie.Predictions about TrumpTrump has said many times that if he loses, then this was all a waste of time. He’s not in this to lose.Nearly no one knew what he and Melania knew when Trump started. Still likely nearly no one knows just how he will get the nomination and win the election. But if it was money, big money, really want to bet against this guy?Gee, the the leftist, liberal, US apologist mainstream media saw Trump at a rally, where everyone was having a good time, jokingly ask everyone to raise their hands and pledge to vote for him. Then off that the media went — viral, piled on, ganged up — all together saying that Trump was asking for some Nazi salute as at some Nuremberg rally in the 1930s. Gee, that is the same as what I was doing when I raised my hand in grade school? Since that absurd nonsense is the worst the media — delusional, demented, deranged, despicable, destructive, disgusting, dysfunctional — could come up with, Trump must be pretty short on serious faults.So, when Trump takes the oath of office, the media will say that he gave a Nazi salute?Helping HillaryHillary, stay away from computers. You might drop a keyboard on your toe and get an infection. And you would have to work with wires, and for you wires are dangerous. You could try to plug the audio signal wire into the A/C wall socket.Hillary, your neighborhood in Chappaqua needs milk and cookies, big, round, soft, oatmeal-raisin and oatmeal-chocolate chip cookies, and cup cakes, nicely decorated cup cakes, and decorations, at Halloween (where you have some really special qualifications), Thanksgiving (cooked a turkey even once, I mean, out of politics — ever made cranberry sauce — start now on your lessons on pie crust for apple pie), Christmas, New Years (will want some eggnog — start learning how now), Mother’s Day, Father’s Day, guess we should pass up on your wedding anniversary, birthdays, baby sitting, sewing costumes, curtains, decorating tables, all stuff much, much, much more important than anything you have done so far in life. Uh, definitely get some tutoring from over the Connecticut line in Stepford. But, under no circumstances take Bill with you!And, Hillary, think of the good news: Even when you make a mess out of the pie crust, at least you won’t be hurting 1 billion people. Some wasted pie crust to save 1 billion people — good ROI.

    1. Jason the Great and Terrible

      That’s a whole lotta hot air, but every piece of data available shows Trump would lose to Hillary Clinton. Trump provides great theater, but there are just too many people out there put off by the idea of what a loudmouthed and insecure (because, seriously, how insecure does a guy gotta be before he defends his penis size during a presidential debate) reality television star would do if he actually wound up in the highest office in the land. There’s enough of those people to overcome even Hillary Clinton’s oil-tanker-load of baggage. Trump would never win the general election. The RNC knows that; that’s why they’re so desperate to block his nomination and avoid a devastating loss.The best head to head matchup for the Republicans would be Kasich vs Clinton. Kasich could actually beat her. Have the Trump fans already done too damage to get him the nod, who knows. The best hope for Kasich (and the RNC as a whole) is a contested convention.

      1. sigmaalgebra

        Even among the Republicans, Kasich does well only in Ohio.To me, Kasich looks good until hear what he says about immigration and what he regards as the magic of a balanced US Federal budget. On the second, he is a grand and world-class dangerous fool: A balanced budget since the 2008 crash would have put the US and the world into a Second Great Depression. Instead, it has taken us, now, 2/3rds a long as the Great Depression and massive stimulus by the Fed and the Treasury to keep us in The Great Recession but out of The Second Great Depresson. Kasich doesn’t see this. In spite of his time in DC, Kasich doesn’t know more about macro economics than my kitty cat, but she is not dangerous.> but every piece of data available shows Trump would lose to Hillary ClintonSo far there is no meaningful, actual, numerical data on that yet. So, now it’s a judgment call. My judgment is that Hillary will get beaten like a “rented mule”. Evidence: Trump’s a smart cookie, e.g., just beat 16 Republican candidates.> The RNC knows that; that’s why they’re so desperate to block his nomination and avoid a devastating loss.Perhaps, but also the GOPe wants a puppet, bought and paid for, obedient, dependent, and Trump is none of those.The GOPe also wants to import too much, export too little, and import essentially slave labor. US middle class voters don’t like that.The GOPe also wants the US to treat the rest of the world’s countries and economies like a team of mules, with a carrot out front and a whip in the back. The carrot: Play ball with the US and get in the WTO and can export to the US, cheat on US patents and intellectual property, etc. The whip: A US carrier task force is no more than a few days away. The CIA is already in your country. The NSA listens to all your electronic communications. The US can launch cruise missiles to hit a dime from 1500 miles away at any time. US satellites can read license plates on the ground. US middle class voters don’t like that, not the carrot and not the stick.> seriously, how insecure does a guy gotta be before he defends his penis size during a presidential debateSounds like something from the disgusting newsies who want eyeballs for ad revenue. It is true that Rubio tried to turn one of the debates into a middle school pissing match, and Trump’s position is that he will hit back. I watched all the debates and have transcripts for all of them, and I didn’t see Trump do any thing like you describe.From my arithmetic, based heavily on the winner take all states, and under a shockingly wide range of assumptions, Trump wins the 1,237+ delegates on the last day of the primaries, June 7th. There is very little chance he will win the 1,237 before then, and almost no chance he will lose. Just have to consider the arithmetic moderately carefully. For the effect of winner take all, of course Florida is a biggie example, but Missouri also shows more of the surprise.Basically Kasich has had his first good and also last good election this season.So, it’s Trump and Cruz. In the national polls, Trump totally blows away Cruz. So far, Cruz has won his home state Texas and otherwise has had some wins, and picked up some delegates, in some states Trump mostly neglected in order to win in other, more important states. Net, Cruz is running for whatever reason but not to win the nomination.With my arithmetic, given that Kasich took Ohio, Trump stands to end June, 7th with 100-250 or so more delegates than the 1,237. So, Trump can take some more losses and still get the 1,237+.For Hillary, you mentioned her baggage — yup, she’s darned vulnerable. Trump effortlessly totally blew away Jeb — maybe imagine what he can do to Hillary?For Trump, his enemies, and the GOPe is going “batshit crazy” afraid of losing their grand old position, has said all kinds of things about Trump and what he said. Nearly all of that traffic is nonsense.Instead, listen not to what others said Trump said but only to what Trump actually did say, that is, use high school term paper writing standards of primary references. Then, what did Trump actually, say, clear on video and/or in actual transcripts, that you so object to?

      2. pwrserge

        That’s ok, by the election Hillary will be ineligible. Even Obama’s pardon doesn’t negate the fact that a convicted felon can’t be president.

    2. ErikSchwartz

      “Here’s a question: Of the 50 states, name one, even one, where Hillary has a good chance.”You mean besides almost all of them?http://www.realclearpolitic

  33. Stephen Voris

    Wonder how the electoral map would look if, instead of voting on “which candidate do you think is the single best choice for president”, people voted on “of the following candidates, which do you think would be acceptable presidents”.

  34. LissIsMore

    Trump v Clinton. Just shoot me. I’m begging you.

  35. jason wright

    so it’s not true that the NYC property and financial nexus of power devised a strategy where Trump steps aside for Bloomberg?

    1. Simone

      🙂 who can blame you?

  36. DJL

    The tech sector and the financial sector are rallying against Trump not because of H1B, but because they both benefit from Liberal Democrat policies. While I do not support or like Trump (I am a Cruz supporter) I am pretty disgusted to watch the IT-Financial-Media-Complex try to tear down anyone that threatens them. The biggest lie in politics (if there can be one) is that the Republicans are the “party of the rich.” Follow the money and you can see that there is no factual basis for this.As far as Hillary goes, she should be in jail by any reasonable analysis. People within the information security field know that she is guilty of multiple infractions. If she had an (R) by her name, the media would run stories 24/7 outlining her transgressions. But like good minions they will continue the cover up. And Obama and justice Dept. will look the other way while continuing to sue a group of Catholic Nuns. Pathetic.This is a sad spectacle. A business buffoon posing as a conservative versus a pathological liar. Certainly we could do better.

  37. Dasher

    The fact that Trump is the best GOP can come up must be depressing for them. No chance of him beating Hillary (BTW, I am not a fan of Hillary either). Many friends who are registered republicans are voting for Hillary if Trump is the GOP candidate. That should tell you all you need to know.

  38. Mariah Lichtenstern

    Sound familiar?

  39. Prokofy

    I agree. I’m a Hillary voter myself although a big critic of the tech sector as you know. I fully support H1B vias which are needed for innovation and freedom and not only in the tech sector. Cruz has picked the wrong people to fight with if he picks that issue. I’ll accept your support for Hillary even though I know your support of the technocommunists in the tech sector means you’re still a divisive factor in the Democratic Party. You might have gone with the hard left and gone with Bernie, who doesn’t seem particularly tech savvy or pro-tech but would be pushed in that direction by his leftist and socialists advisors with ties to the technocommie sector. So that’s why I like you, Fred, you know communism, even if techified, isn’t good for business or good for the country — although packaged as “progressive” policy or socialism, you support it.Hillary hate is big, though. And the main card the Hillary haters have is the entire fraudulent fiction of “Hillary’s email service being hacked” — she hasn’t been accused of a crime, yet the Washington Post accuses her of “having committed a crime.” She hasn’t been hacked and there’s no proof of any of her data being misused, yet John Schindler, who I had a lot of respect for in the past, says the Russians have tapped her server with the antennaes on top of their embassy in Washington. I don’t think so…But Hillary’s one sin falls in an area where techies could either line up to scorn her for bad security (they always hate the victims of hacks) or decide to throw her under the bus, like Jarrett who instigated this, in order to distract from the far larger horror of the hacking of Obama’s own White House and State Department (and CIA and more) by Edward Snowden and his little script kiddie friends, who are basically in the category of your friends-of-friends.So I view your support of Hillary as actually quite fragile. At any moment, a Hillary-hater, a Snowdenista, might tip you over, Fred. However, be strong, stick to what you know, Snowden is not good for business, Snowden is crypto-anarchy.

  40. creative group

    Really? You must not be a New Yorker! New Yorkers know Trump! The rest of the disenfranchised is listening to what they actually have been talking privately and thinking. Nothing new to report!#twopartysystemsucks#termlimits

  41. JLM

    .Pssst, Andy.It’s “douchebag.”JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

  42. sigmaalgebra

    Nope: He’s just smart, that’s all.He doesn’t feel guilty. Indeed, supposedly in his book Deal he says that controversy is good. It was deliberate, and darned effective.Surprising, but it worked.How could he figure out that technique and make it work? Smart cookie.

  43. JLM

    .Easy to fix –1. Make it just like the EB-3 IMMIGRATION visa program and require a certification from the DOL that no Americans are either available or desire the job.From the DOL which is not nearly as corrupt.[Good luck with that given that there are 80K CS/IT undergrads and graduate grads/year.]2. Get rid of the foreign puppy mills which game the lottery.3. Make the American employers pay market and prevailing wages.4. Make it an IMMIGRATION program and not a temporary visa work program. Even a path to citizenship — I know, heresy but then I am a heretic.This could be done in about 5 minutes but it would not allow shitbirds like SCE (Southern Cal Edison) and Disney to screw American workers while selling their products/services to Americans.Five minutes.Bernie and Trump would both agree to this.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

  44. JLM

    .New CS/IT jobs last year was 83K.The American supply is more than adequate to handle the demand. There is no oversupply so wages will go up. That is Econ 101.Remember that Apple, et al, made a huge settlement with other tech companies for their “friendly” agreement not to raid other similar companies for talent.Sound familiar?This is just corporate corruption squeezing the market to dampen wages, nothing more.Occam’s Razor.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

  45. JLM

    .Not to confuse a good rant with any facts but what Trump does — like every ski resort in the US — is to use H-2B workers.Here is a link.…Almost every resort on the east coast uses this program. Every worker at Daufuskie Island was Irish the last time I was there. They favor native English speaking workers.There was an allegation that was settled without admitting guilt that the general contractor who built Trump Tower in 1983 imported Polish ironworkers. It was true.Purists may want to note that was 23 years ago but still. The guy is a crook, right?The beef was with the local ironworkers union who wanted special work rules to drive wages up.When I was building high rises in Austin, I had the same problem. The ironworkers are always a pain in the ass.I brought my replacement workers in from Houston.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

  46. Salt Shaker

    “Deushebag” is German

  47. JLM

    .So am I.I’ve got a BBQ dinner that says you’re wrong, SS.I served in Germany and maybe you are thinking of “deutschbag” which is German/America slang but “deushebag” — nah.Come get that BBQ dinner. I’ll even throw in a case of beer — Peacemaker.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

  48. JLM

    .What are the oceans off Scotland called?The US was built by LEGAL immigration and it always will be grateful for that opportunity. We are a nation of immigrants. Let’s just keep it legal, no?JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

  49. JLM

    .Do not lecture me, friend, on legal v illegal immigration in the US. I live in Texas and I have seen the impact, the utter cockup, of illegal immigration in the US.It has destroyed wages, sent incomes plummeting, overwhelmed the social safety net, flooded the market with low skill/low wage expectation workers, filled schools with unprogrammed students.There has been a huge cost to my state as a result of illegal immigration.The vast majority of the waves of immigration to the US was legal, far and away. Even today, only about 5% of US residents are in the country illegally and virtually all of them are recent.We are a nation of laws, not men.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

  50. sigmaalgebra

    The SCE suits, not in computing, get a caste system with a new version of slave labor they can look down on and know won’t compete for their jobs.Those foreign students — nearly all really poor from nearly all really poor countries — do you think they can pay tuition, room, and board at a US university when they and their families would have to struggle to pay US dollars for a US McDonald’s Happy Meal? They can’t.So, where’s the money coming from? Heavily the US NSF that got told to do that. To stop it, cut it off at the NSF. So, NSF funding is to be used only for US citizens.In this election, I’ve started to appreciate the extent to which US politicians have been bought and paid for.There has been a vicious war against US citizens, especially WASPs, in computing. For at least some years, the IBM Watson Research Laboratory at Yorktown Heights had its management dominated by Jews, from the US and/or Israel, and its non-managers dominated by Asians. The Asians were in a caste. WASPs were not welcome at all. Jews were not welcome as non-managers.Some really good US citizens — really bright and hard working, with world-class Ph.D. degrees — got pushed out. Heavily they were then, also, out of computing for the rest of their careers.It was very dirty business, a really big effort to shoot a lot of really good US citizens in the gut, ruin their careers, ruin their families, etc. Bummer.The situation became fully obvious all over IBM, and at one point there was a striking revolution — a Roman Catholic replaced a Jewish guy as head of Research.

  51. JLM

    .They have very strong lobby?JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

  52. sigmaalgebra

    And there’s more: I have it on good authority that Hitler ate food, drank liquids that contain water, slept, urinated, defecated, breathed air, wrote a book, was angry, gave speeches to large, excited crowds, was a politician, promised to get the economy of his country going, was interested in having a strong military, and often walked on two legs and that Trump also does or did, shockingly, sit down for this, ALL of those things.

  53. sigmaalgebra

    We have one heck of a good Constitution with essentially all the power in Congress.

  54. PhilipSugar

    I don’t like Trump or his ways. I wish that we could have a serious business person run for election. Sadly that won’t work.The thing that many “elite” people don’t understand about Trump is that his followers are real. There are tons of people out there that think the government has not been about them for a long long time.They believe the government exists to support big business, provide for a large class of dependent people that don’t want to and have never been used to working, and pay for a new class people in the U.S. the government worker.I have to agree.Is Trump the solution? I’m not going there. But is he the only one that loudly speaks about the problem? Yes.You could say Bernie Sanders is similar, although he approach is to say let me give you free stuff. That is really just more of the same.Let me give you an example. I live on the water. There are watermen (they are all men) who absolutely bust their ass. They work a second job and they sell what they catch to make ends meet. As they come in and sell their catch they watch it go out the front door with somebody paying with an EBT card. They loudly will tell you that they can’t afford those crabs but watch somebody else that doesn’t work eat the fruit of their labor.Many of the elite people that helicopter in to staged events and then go back to their second home in the Hampton’s just don’t understand this. Believe me their hate of Trump does nothing but strengthen his position with his base, which is real.When I say these views people call me a racist or compare me to Hitler. Most of my colleagues don’t live among people that could never imagine taking a Caribbean vacation because they feel like it. I tell my kids don’t tell people where we are going. People know I’m different but because of my dress they aren’t exactly sure.These people are smart and work hard. They have watched their jobs get hollowed out. They don’t want free shit, or to take money from the rich. Yesterday I had lunch with a good friend. He is the head of produce for a grocery store. He has busted his ass and put two kids through college. He was telling me how much he liked Trump.

  55. JLM

    .Elections are binary, you can only support the candidates who are on the ballot — PERFECTMAN/WOMAN is not on the ballot this time around.America’s current ills stem primarily from a failed economy. I think Trump can fix that problem. I think he can get growth up to 5-7% for 4 years and then 3% thereafter. Right now we are at, maybe, 1% and the cooks are spending a long time in the kitchen with the books to get that.When people use hyperbole like comparing anyone to Hitler, I stop listening. Trump is Trump and he is NOT Hitler.In the demonization of Trump, people have stopped listening. When he spoke about Mexicans, he was right there are SOME Mexicans who are murderers, rapists, drug criminals who get into the country. I live in Texas and I can show you where they are.The WALL is a symbol of the total frustration with low skill/low wage expectation illegal immigrants in the country who are destroying middle class incomes and supplanting Americans in jobs.Know this — illegal/legal immigrants in the US is second only to Petro Dollars as a form of revenue in Mexico. Do you understand why the Mexicans don’t want a wall?If they were not here, wages would go up and up. Mexico would take a huge hit on wealth inflow to their country.If that is either racist or xenophobic — color me similarly. The Econ 501 numbers say he’s right. The stretched social safety net says he’s right.In spite of that, he is in favor of LEGAL immigration.As to Muslims, he said that refugees should be banned until we get our vetting process fixed. Right now, it is hopelessly broken. I agree with that.He did NOT say to ban Muslims, he said to ban all Muslim immigrants until we get the vetting process fixed.The KKK white supremacist nonsense is a concoction of the media. Everyone in the world knows David Duke and the KKK (a creation of the post-Civil War Democrats BTW) are lunatic fringe. That is not serious journalism.Hope & Change propelled Obama to the White House and maybe “Make America Great Again” will do the same. It’s a slogan. It’s a branding strategy and, apparently, it’s working.Can you recite any other candidate’s slogan?As to me, I am not nearly as conservative as you might expect. I am fiscally conservative but wildly liberal in matters pertaining to opportunity and education. I received a FREE education. Of course, I had to go in the Army for 5 years but it was a great deal.Trump is going to be just fine. Of 17 guys who threw their hats into the ring, only Trump got the spirit of the electorate right and he was the novice by far.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

  56. PhilipSugar

    Comparing people to Hitler is more offensive than his speech

  57. JLM

    .I went to the concentration camps in the early 1970s.They were fissures where the fires of Hell reached Earth and evil spilled forth.A comparison of anyone to Hitler is done at great peril to honesty, seriousness, and credibility.It is the unthinking man’s knee jerk intellectual port of last refuge.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

  58. sigmaalgebra

    Right! Fixed it! No doubt lost one full letter grade!

  59. Rohan

    I don’t deny using hyperbole to make my point.I wonder how much of it is hyperbole in reality though. The excuse for now is that its just been all talk. But, if we take apart all that he’s said in public, I’m not sure the differences are all that large.

  60. sigmaalgebra

    I like our Constitution for its obvious advantages: I like it better than what England has with their parliament. I believe that US citizens have better protection of their rights than in the British Commonwealth.My brother’s Ph.D. was in Poly Sci and constitutional law, but those are not nearly my fields. So, I can’t give expert commentary. So my view of the US Constitution is at, say, the level of high school civics plus some distant observation.For> When was the last time this Constitution enabled meaningful reform that improved the lives of the average American?my guess is that such wording is from some people who want some “reform” they can’t get at the ballot box so want to try to get it at the SCOTUS and that the SCOTUS and Constitution are not for that.For permitting reform, what I have heard is that the SCOTUS tends to be quite flexible about what Congress has spoken strongly about.Sure, if Congress really tries to ban guns, then the SCOTUS will have to look into what militia in the Second Amendment means and give an opinion.I’m not seeing the SCOTUS as a bottleneck blocking meaningful reform that a lot of voters and the Congress clearly want, at least not very often.There are issues, some strongly felt, about who should be appointed to the SCOTUS and what the SCOTUS should do, but I am not well informed on the details. To me, if only from my ignorance, in seeing problems in DC, the SCOTUS is near the bottom of the list with a lot of really bad stuff much more important.E.g., when people start talking about the SCOTUS and Second Amendment and assault weapons, I start to tune out: By an assault weapon they mean a semi-automatic rifle styled like, say, an AK-47 or M-16. I don’t care about the style. No doubt the key legal issue is semi-automatic, and the people talking about assault weapons want to ban semi-automatic rifles and, likely, shotguns and pistols. So do we want to ban semi-automatic rifles, shotguns, and pistols? That’s their question — let’s state the question honestly and, then, debate that actual question.Then, the role of the SCOTUS? Gads. When the Constitution was written, a gun was a single shot, flintlock, muzzle loader with a home cast lead ball. Semi-automatic and full automatic were not even in the imagination. So, what does the Second Amendment say about semi-automatic or full automatic rifles, shotguns, or pistols? IMHO, taken literally, nothing. So, if some state wants to ban semi-automatic and the case goes to the SCOTUS, what the heck will they use to make a decision? I don’t know, but I’m not nearly the first person or or even a well qualified person to say.

  61. Rohan

    Helpful to understand your POV, JLM. Thank you for that.Some of what he’s said has been disturbing.. and yes, you can call me unthinking for comparing him to Hitler. But, in today’s age, I struggle to see the difference between that and threatening to shoot people by dipping bullets in pig’s blood. So, I’m not sure there’s been a lot of thoughtful dialog on his part either.And, to your notes above – I’ve also deleted my comments. Once again, I apologize.

  62. sigmaalgebra


  63. PhilipSugar

    Huffington Post: (very liberal from a reporter that blasts Trump)Title: Comparing Trump to Hitler is the worst kind of Hate SpeechMoney Line:” I find it deeply insulting to all those who died in the Holocaust to have their sacrifice cheaply denigrated in this way.”http://www.huffingtonpost.c…Actually knowing people that survived those camps and have tattoos really makes me question your motives. Please take me off your list.

  64. sigmaalgebra

    The differences are astronomically large.At one time I wanted to understand who and what Hitler was, how he got his power, what he did and why, and, most importantly, could we have a Hitler in the US.One way and another, it appears that I got a fairly good understanding of Hitler.Here I will omit a review and analysis of Hitler.Net, a Hitler can’t happen in the US. Why? Really, the US founding fathers had seen bad kings and set up the US so that couldn’t happen here. E.g., really, nearly all the real power is in Congress, not the POTUS, and Congress doesn’t have to and won’t go along with a Hitler.E.g., heck, Clinton got nearly run out of office for, uh, misusing a cigar. Nixon did get run out of office. A Hitler? He’d get run out of office by similar means.Are there people in the US ready, willing, and eager to be a Hitler? No doubt there’s a surplus. Able to be a Hitler? Alone in their basement? Sure. In their family — I can believe that. As a cop? Apparently, for a while. As a Chief of Police? Maybe, for a while. As a Mayor? Maybe for a short time. As a state governor? Maybe, if they keep it quiet. As a US Congressman? I suspect we’ve had some that were too close. As POTUS? Not for long.Of course, there is the impeachment process. Then there is just the threat of that process. Then there are some national security safety valves in the White House. And there are some safety valves in the DoD and DoJ. Then there’s Congress that can just not approve of some spending. E.g., “What’s this with the new Einsatzgruppen?” There’s the news media that has an astoundingly strong free hand really as another safety valve.And there is one more: Call it the wise men patriots: Get about a dozen of them that agree, and then they can have a nice little luncheon with the POTUS, mention some serious concerns, and, then give him the good news, say, (A) Since we don’t want him seen as a failure, he gets to stay in office and work all he wants on his jump shot and golf game, have free access to the White House gym and pool, and have bro dinners with his buddies. (B) He doesn’t have to worry himself with any of the serious issues of government. (C) He is free to fly on Air Force One to Hawaii for a long golf vacation and then to Paris to exclaim that the worst problem in the universe is climate change and that ISIS is “contained” but we shouldn’t bomb the ISIS oil facilities because that would create an environmental disaster, generate CO2, and create climate change. (D) He doesn’t have to worry about what the US DoD is doing to improve readiness, about the B-2 program, about the F-35 program, about how the US should respond in the South China Sea or to the wacko in North Korea, gets to f’get about what to do about ISIS. So, it’s jump shot and golf game! Not that any such thing would happen soon.

  65. Rohan

    Responded below. I’ll close this conversation for now. Thank you for responding. And I am sorry about the trouble caused. I was definitely disturbed and guilty of feeling emotional.

  66. PhilipSugar

    See my response a minute ago.

  67. Rohan

    I am sorry it offended you, Phil. It was not the intention.I’ve found the Muslim attacks disturbing. And I think I definitely was guitly of reacting emotionally. I am sorry about that – definitely my naivette.I’ve also deleted my comments. Once again, apologies.

  68. PhilipSugar

    Understood and will forget about it and let it go, but people really, really need to think when you compare somebody to Hitler.You can characterize him in many unflattering ways. Saying he wants to exterminate a group of people and then actually attempting and inconsolably sadly (I don’t know a word to express that more strongly) achieving some success is not.

  69. JLM

    .It is impossible to offend me, Rohan. I do not have that gear. If one wants to be in the ring part of the pleasure is a good kick in the teeth.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

  70. Rohan


  71. Rohan