Video Of The Week: Mary Meeker's Internet Trends
It was an easy and obvious call this weekend. I’m going to spend some time this morning watching my friend and coinvestor (on a few things) Mary Meeker do her thing. You should too.
It was an easy and obvious call this weekend. I’m going to spend some time this morning watching my friend and coinvestor (on a few things) Mary Meeker do her thing. You should too.
Comments (Archived):
This was a pretty good report, because some parts covered predictions and looked forward (a criticism of previous versions was that it was mostly looking in the rear view mirror).A few reaction points:1/ I was surprised by how much OfferUp has been growing. This bodes well for p2p commerce2/ Smartphone and cellular carriers costs are still too high everywhere in the world. Carriers are still holding consumers hostage with few options and they are raking it in. 3/ Data as a platform is a good theme that was highlighted, but I found it thin. The word “Decentralized” is buried somewhere in a tiny print, whereas it is a major trend.This is very much a consumer trends report. Some of the economic/global data correlations that were being attempted were parabolic and stretched, or with little correlation significance. Nonetheless, a very good analysis of where we are with the state of technology and the world.
The data points for decentralization being a ‘major trend’ are….?Just doesn’t seem very useful nor actionable.What am i not understanding?
it is an emerging trend that will gradually become more significant.
What a dispassionate statement my friend!
Did I miss it or did the words bitcoin and blockchain not make into the slide deck?
What makes a trend?Bitcoin has a ton of investment but what are the other proof points?
The take away, If millenials aren’t using it, the Chinese aren’t using it, or India isn’t using it, a trend it is not.
Wow you are being tough on Bitcoin/blockchain as a force of change. Did you really read my book 😉
Potential is not a trend William.Investment is not a trend.Trends are a market term.Just because you or I say something means no more that that.Doesn’t mean it won’t change the world but a trend is adoption and numerically based. Nothing more.Unless you are Fred of course.
Ooo, that’s a salty take Richard.
No, saying there was no mention of universal income. Now, that would have been salty 🙂
I am curious as to why it did not, is there a unstated KPCB bias at play here? It continues to get attention from the enterprise side – for instance http://www.v3.co.uk/v3-uk/n…I am not a blockchain/bitcoin groupie but not to mention it at all seems rather strange, no?
Rich Weisberger:Maybe it will be included in the 2020 trends report. As former Daytraders we shake our heads at analyst reports being highlighted as the Holy grail of information when many considered it Monday morning Quarterbacking. Mary Meeker is in an unique position because she turned VC and actually does know products and services coming up.As William Mougayar mentioned the people who matter viewed her previous offerings as discussing what was already known. But to be fair that could have been because of a fiduciary and legal duty.
you are correct, and i was going to add that.
“Smartphone and cellular carriers costs are still too high everywhere in the world. Carriers are still holding consumers hostage with few options and they are raking it in.”Next big disruption.
I hope so, and force them to spend more on infrastructure upgrades.
“force them to spend more on infrastructure upgrades”The market is broken in two ways. First, carriers charge $1 and provide 30 cents of service. Nothing has really forced them to spend on what they should have as they’ve gotten a huge free ride on wifi offload thanks to Steve Jobs. Second, there is no equilibration between the value capture at the core and top of the informational stack and the costs which occur mostly at the bottom and edge.By disruption, I mean changes must occur on both fronts. Vertical integration at the edge needs to be addressed, as do farcical network neutrality conventions (which result in the opposite of what their fictional writers intended).
RIP Muhammed Ali The Greatest of All Time!Nickname(s)The GreatestThe People’s ChampionThe Louisville LipRated atHeavyweightHeight6 ft 3 in (191 cm)[1]Reach78 in (198 cm)NationalityAmericanBornCassius Marcellus Clay, Jr.January 17, 1942Louisville, Kentucky, U.S.DiedJune 3, 2016 (aged 74)Scottsdale, Arizona, U.S.StanceOrthodoxBoxing recordTotal fights61Wins56Wins by KO37Losses5
Adblocking is being noticed and this is a force that can shake one of the top business models.
I wonder how the “hate ads, block ads” data compares to traditional advertising forms (tv, newspapers, magazines) in terms of what marketers are paying for actual end user exposure and the degree to which they find that is cost effective. Online has a host of advantages vs. spray and prayGiven that for years many have been using dvr’s to watch non-live events on TV and obviously ad exposure has decreased as a result from the days when all you could do is simply go get a snack or have a bathroom break.
Would make a nice Snapstorm.
A couple days ago, I got the PDF of Ms. Meeker’s presentation and tried to read it.Good to see that Ms. Meeker understands the size of something, the rate of growth in that size, and acceleration of that size, that is, a function, its first derivative, and its second derivative as from Newton’s calculus and second law of motion F = ma. Good! Freshman calculus reached Sand Hill Road!VideoIt seemed that Ms. Meeker was suggesting that there may be a lot more emphasis in social media on real time video. E.g., some bros in several cities could watch the NBA playoffs together.Okay.Global Internet and EconomyIt seemed that she was giving a lot of emphasis to a global view of both the Internet and the economy.So, right, there will be relatively slow growth in selling current information technology products and services in some parts of the world short on cable TV, land line phones, electric power, running water, and toilets. I’m not concerned about this point at all.Or, I’m not interested in space travel for humans; on earth the land area is essentially fixed; we shouldn’t keep doubling the population; but we can keep doubling the economy, standard of living, and quality of life, e.g., via innovation.InnovationIn Meeker’s presentation, for me, and I would believe for Silicon Valley, the big missing emphasis was on innovation: The report was similar to the common statement of about 1900 that all the big discoveries in physics were done with. Physics done in 1900? What a hoot!And for KPCB, as athttp://avc.com/2010/11/web2…andhttp://avc.com/2010/11/web2…I can’t forget J. Doerr’sIdeas are easy. Execution is everything.Well, the report gave too little weight to what innovation (where, of course, the key is just ideas) there could be in the next 10 years. I.e., the report placed much more emphasis on growth of information technology via growth in population and GDP than growth in innovation. I know: Maybe I’m wrong and read the PDF too quickly.Yes, it is more difficult to understand, describe, characterize, plan, anticipate, measure, and predict growth in innovation than growth in GDP and population.Tough Facts of LifeTough: For the return on investment (ROI), that is, multiples of several times investment, Silicon Valley needs, there no hope of getting much of that from population growth. And getting that ROI from GDP growth is nearly as hopeless unless innovations cause GDP to grow rapidly. So, net, for the needed ROI, need a lot in innovation. Tough to measure, etc.? Yup. Sorry ’bout that. Guess Sand Hill Road is no longer covered with loose gold. Amazing.Concern about Silicon Valley ROI? Yup, as inhttp://www.kauffman.org/new…on average the ROI has not been very good.Ordinary Means and Exceptional EndsSo far in the history of Sand Hill Road, the ends they are looking for happen only a few times each decade. So, they are looking for exceptional ends. Alas, their means of looking are quite ordinary. So, they are using ordinary means to look for exceptional ends, and, thus, we have to expect a poor connection here between means and ends.I’m reminded of the GOPe and Trump: Winning the White House is an exceptional end; a year ago the GOPe was looking at the election with just ordinary means, and Trump was using exceptional means. Until Trump actually got to 1,237, essentially all of the GOPe totally failed to evaluate accurately the exceptional means of Trump. And here the GOPe was joined by essentially all of the news pundits, political consultants, Nate Silver, etc. — that is, the ordinary ones.There is a fundamental problem in using only ordinary means to look for and pursue exceptional ends.Digital Electronics in CarsThe report seemed to predict a lot more in digital electronics in cars.To me, digital electronics for controlling fuel mixture and ignition timing have been really good. So, we got rid of carburetors, venturis, air valves, float bowls, accelerator pumps, chokes, breaker points, centrifugal advance weights and springs, and distributor caps. Great.Otherwise, for me, the less digital electronics the better: (A) I don’t think there is significant utility from it. (B) I don’t believe the car companies can do a good job designing and manufacturing it. (C) I’m sure the car maintenance people can’t do a good job maintaining it. (D) I don’t want to think about the legal and insurance aspects.For me, I don’t want to pay for it, try to use it, or try to maintain it.To me, a car is really important for the same reasons going back to the first time I drove one, i.e., haven’t changed much. For progress, the main issues are cost, ruggedness, durability, reliability, corrosion resistance, and ease of maintenance.I want to keep cars 99 44/100% simple and mechanical, not complicated, more electrical, or electronic.To me, each extra piece of electronics is a great reason NOT to buy the car.Maybe the car companies want to use electronics to create a driver emotional experience. Well from more in auto electronics the emotional experience I expect is the car suddenly stopping, on a busy highway, in bad weather, where I have to hope I can coast to a safe spot on the side of the road, call for a tow, and take the time, money, and effort to get the nonsense repaired. For that emotional experience, unanesthetized root canal procedure with a “barbed wire enema”, no thanks.
the report placed much more emphasis on growth of information technology via growth in population and GDP than growth in innovation. I know: Maybe I’m wrong and read the PDF too quickly.I agree with you and I had a similar take. Meeker is an analyst and a numbers person I believe. As a result she tends to frame things in terms of analysis like this instead of analog thinking which of course is that there is a huge amount of creativity and luck involved in just about everything. (As anyone in the entertainment and the arts, or that has common sense knows). Madonna is not a big artist because she has the best voice or lyrics.They (people who feel comfortable framing things that way) want to reduce this down to numbers because that is what they have the seat of the pants feel for.The bottom line is always if you throw a large amount of creative things against the wall, some of it will stick and investors will make a fortune. The basis for angel and vc investing.
Finally, something we can agree on. I think Mary Meeker is brilliant. However, her analysis of growth is based on a percentage growth as a static figure which probably will never translate well in overall revenue figures or future growth. She analyses growth via percentage not from macroanalysis but one primarily derived from statistics. The problem with statistics is that it doesn’t incorporate punctuated equilibrium within market forces.For example, who could’ve predicted the black swan phenomenon in many sectors? Who could’ve predicted Apple’s takeover when Blackberry and Nokia had previously dominated the markets? People who are focused on statistics can’t see what is coming.Madonna is a great artist because she embraces change.Investors usually make a fortune in long-term investments. However, we are taught to focus on short-term growth. Most of what creates value is how public policy will allow for mass distribution.
“The problem with Statistics is that it doesn’t incorporate punctuated equilibrium within market force”What in the world are you talking about?
He seems to be trying to give a one step deeper cause for the failure of the standard assumption of a simple random sample or, if you will, independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.). For more, under mild assumptions, e.g, the Lindeberg-Feller conditions, the central limit theorem (CLT) holds, but the rate of convergence needs some information about the distribution of the i.i.d. random variables being added. There, as for LTCM, a small sample to estimate variance likely won’t include some very rare but very extreme data — e.g., a Russia default — so get an estimate of variance for the Brownian motion (from the CLT) too small, get too highly leveraged, and go broke.Can’t really expect Nobel prize economists actually to have a good grasp of the CLT and i.i.d.! Heck, I published a paper once that showed that they didn’t have a good grasp of the Kuhn-Tucker conditions!
Not being an academic that threw me as well. Very possible it means something that I don’t understand. Thing is, in order to sell to the masses you have to write to their level and understand their language (not your language). Nothing taken from Sierra and her point (if it is valid). Obligatory reference to Trump inserted at this point. Jobs was also good at thinking down like this in addition to thinking ahead.
(I think she means) to say that applying statistical metrics (avg, median, etc) to past data can create a story of steady change or gradual change whereas actual change happens in big spurts of black swan events. I believe the larger point above is that statistics but itself is a poor tool to teach history.My understanding is that “punctuated equilibrium” is used to describe systems that have long periods of unchanging state barring big changes at random times.
It just means that there are often long periods of static growth/ zero growth until a breakout (“punctuated equilibrium” as borrowed from Darwin’s Theory of Evolution). Rarely do trends occur on a continual incline within steady percentages. So, although Mary Meeker’s analysis is brilliant and interesting in the short term and the now, they might have no relevance for the long-term and black swan phenomena.
Numbers and innovation? Can we connect numbers and innovation? Sure, we’ve been there, done that: The story goes, from what Ike learned about innovation suddenly near the end of WWII, then, or when he was POTUS, I’m not sure which, he saidNever again will US science be permitted to operate independently of the US military.Code breaking, radar, radar jamming, the proximity fuse, maybe the V-2 rocket, certainly the atomic bomb, Ike learned his lesson in a big hurry. E.g., a little sooner and the US or Germany could have won the war in a day with one bomb, on NYC or Berlin, as the case may be. Tough to miss the importance of that lesson.The remark at the beginning of the movie on John Nash was correct: “Mathematics won WWII.”. A bit short but essentially correct.Then several wise men around DC and Ike at the time, J. Conant, V. Bush, etc., decided to make US academic science research “an offer they couldn’t refuse” — take the money or in science be a second class research university. They took the money!For a while, at any high end US research university, ballpark 60% of the annual budget was from STEM field research grants intended to aid US national security. So, the university took a big cut for overhead — great for the art gallery, the limo for the president, the renovation of the president’s residence, the landscaping, the nice new gate at the main entrance to campus, the new glass walled lunch room, the string quartet series, the theater group, the glossy arts magazine, the English department, the art history department, etc. along with the new physics building, the new engineering school, several chaired profs in the math department, etc.IIRC Conant wanted to make sure no one in Congress could cut off all the money at once. So, they set up several money sources — NSF, NIH, Army Durham, Office of Naval Research, Naval Research Labs, Air Force Cambridge, ARPA, etc.It worked: Pour in money; wait 20 years; get out lots of good results and Ph.D. labor. E.g., get differential game theory which is how for a missile to chase an airplane where both are doing their best for their own ends.I can believe that long after WWII and still the case, if the head of the NSF or US National Academy of Science is in a classified briefing of some appropriate committee of the Senate and says that US science is falling behind — take your pick, especially Russia, China — the senators will see Capitol Hill as high on the target list and cough up the funds.How to totally terrify Congress: Say that Russia or China might get an algorithm that shows that P = NP or does some science that says what dark matter and dark energy are before the US does.Other little things: The real start of Silicon Valley with the big push for aerospace electronics, GPS, super smart radar (spread spectrum with shift register sequence encryption and filtering), and … for tons of stuff.I got a lot out of it:(1) My ugrad physics department was nicely funded by a USAF contract that read “To further the technology of the infrared”. Yup, it did. Now US national security is just awash in high end exploitations of infrared. USAF smart money.(2) As a ugrad math major, it seemed I was doing well. Not also in English, you understand — too much Shakespeare, and “Out, out brief candle”, and I wish he had!But in math, a reasonable good step up for me was to take a course in point-set topology. Okay. Well there wasn’t a course, but there was, and still is, a famous book, Kelley, General Topology. So, I got a copy, taught it to myself, and gave weekly lectures and problem solutions to a prof. Okay. Of course, I still have the book and see in the front that writing it was from funding from the Office of Naval Research, the National Science Foundation, and a sabbatical from the University of California (likely paid for from overhead from research grants). My applied math Ph.D.? I never paid a dime — the funds never fell out of the sky; the source had to be Congress for US national security.Various parts of the US STEM field research establishment routinely get overviews of progress, obstacles, and opportunities, from high level down to quite low level. E.g., no doubt there are meetings with talks trying to get everyone caught up on the question of P versus NP and with the best guesses for what part of that hard nut to attack next. Net, it really is possible to have some effective planning in research, and we do.For the innovation Sand Hill Road needs for the ROI they need, similar approaches are necessary and quite possible, but I saw not even a start in Ms. Meeker’s report. The problem is not just “analog” versus “numerical” but simpler — using ordinary means to try to achieve exceptional goals.
I’m sure the car maintenance people can’t do a good job maintaining it.My car has a reminder system as many have which tells you what service is needed. The last service was at 10k miles and they forgot to reset a sensor and now at 12k miles it is showing me an annoying reminder message. Only way to clear it up is to go to the dealer and have them reset it “which takes a minute”. No way for end user to reset it (probably a way but I don’t have the time to research and implement).That said I love most of the electronics actually. I like progress in this area. Lane departure is lame you have to look as a double check. Rear view cameras to me are distracting and provide to many places to have to monitor (1 to many).Maybe the car companies want to use electronics to create a driver emotional experience.Millennials don’t have that thing going on. They see cars as transportation. This is as a result of being driven around by mommy everywhere and anywhere and not getting any kickback to their needs. To those of us who grew up as second class citizens we feel a bit differently about cars and what they offer to us as freedom. What about that trend and what it means long term? No way to put that in a chart, can’t be measured. That is something that has and will have impact (way millennials are treated by their parents is what I mean). Millennials don’t appear from what I can tell to lust over a car as an emotional experience and 2ndary meaning like I do (I’ve got a convertible sports car on order and I don’t even like convertibles actually don’t like sun exposure. I just like putting th top down and up even for a short ride). Many people (Fred perhaps) don’t care for the sound of engines. Engines sound good to me. I am totally happy with ICE. In some cars they also offer electronics to enhance the engine sound. [1] I actually don’t like these options to me they are fake and remind me of people who modified their cars back in the day from stock. But the point to your point is to put more of an emotional experience to the car buyer. I can attest to this emotional experience nothing like the sound of a turbocharger kicking in in addition to the acceleration (as long as it hasn’t been falsely enhanced by pushing a button that is I draw the line there).[1] Porsche does this as only one example with it’s sport exhaust system….
Cars are great, but would be easier to lust over if they were affordable/practical in a city. After living in Cambridge I really do enjoy driving my Volvo in CT in a way I didn’t appreciate before.
Maybe the car companies want to use electronics to create a driver emotional experience.In case I didn’t make the point in my other comment the answer to this is an emphatic yes. If you have the time, go to some high end car dealers and pickup the printed brochures and actually read them. [1] Then report back and let me know what you think. They are masterpieces of marketing. Pushing all of the right buttons for the type of person thinking of buying and lusting over that type of car. (Not you but I’d be curious on your take since it’s not you).[1] Then take a test drive and see how bad the salesman is in creating that same experience. An only one example, you get into a high end car and you want to just experience it and take it all in. First thing the salesman puts on the radio with music and/or starts to talk thereby taking your mind off the experience distracting you. Ask yourself if while you were having sex with a beautiful women you’d want the same thing to happen? Or when reading Playboy as a kid? (Don’t mess with the zone is my point). Ask yourself if while you were getting served a fine meal (when you were starved no less) if you’d like someone to interrupt that experience and kill your buzz. These are all analog creative concepts by the way.
There is a wide variety of emotional experiences the car companies want to go for. There is a LOT to the subject:The styling itself is a case of applied sculpture art, often with lots of hints about human anatomy.My brother said that the more expensive GM cars were good with interiors that looked like something from a high end NOLA fancy house — lots of dark red, soft cushions, etc.There are also various social efforts: E.g., a guy in a Corvette convertible with the top down can be one heck of a good chick magnet much the same as extravagant feathers for male peacocks.The more recent Tesla styling was aimed at the Chablis and Brie set — call it understated, subtle, elegance.It goes on and on.My point is, I don’t want to pay for it, pay attention to it, have it break down, or pay to maintain it.If it ain’t on the car, then it won’t break — purchase cost $0, reliability 100% forever, maintenance cost $0 forever. Tough to beat.
Read this it’s interesting. I saw it years ago on PBS. Clotaire Rapaille. They did a segment on how to make the long gone Hummer more appealing (make it more imposing short answer):http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pag…By the way one thing with the “chick magnet”. That’s as much a party in the brain by the person driving the car (whose guy friends like it) as it is that the girls are impressed (not the case anymore by the way..).Why? Guy gets positive feedback from his friends and randoms. As a result he rides highly confident in that car. Girls feel that confidence. Note this is different than the girl giving positive feedback directly because of the car. [1] I can tell you that with a few cars that I have had, and I’ve made this comment before, I’ve gotten tons of guy comments and practically no “chick” comments. But the guy comments make you feel good and definitely have an impact emotionally on you. It feels great. Even if you are married. Even if you aren’t dating. It does feel good. Even if the mailman is making the compliment.[1] Remember as I say it’s not what people think it’s what you think people think even if they don’t actually think it. People with lack of self esteem have a hard time in this area.
Was interesting as usual. I think her points on govt not being able to keep up with innovation are spot on-and require a very different path than the one we are on now. http://pointsandfigures.com…
San Francisco, Chicago, LA, and New York are some of the most prosperous cities in the world (https://en.wikipedia.org/wi…, I think whatever system they’re using is probably fine.
ha. you don’t know Chicago then.
The data, not surprisingly, shows a clear consumer aversion to online ads (e.g., 93% consider using ad blocking software, 81% mute video ads). As has been noted, much of that can be attributed to a variety of reasons, including lack of creativity/entertainment value, bad targeting, load times, etc. As ad rev dependent sites continue to develop video and capitalize on its higher cpms they too often try to squeeze “blood from a stone” by editing whatever video they have into tiny little pieces, w/ each segment delivering an obligatory pre-roll. This trend has lead to a fragmented viewing experience for many sites. Yes, monetization is important, but there also is a frequency threshold where ad effectiveness is sacrificed and consumer ill will towards a site begins to kick in.
Salt Shaker:Do you have any metrics on non impulse buyers clicking on those annoying ads.The Ad blocking software is seeing a positive trend.
Stichfix is an example of a net service (personal styling) that also happens bricks and mortar but is way less cost effective when delivered that way. You not only have to pay for the stylist but the lack of the ability to optimize the use of that labor is key in providing the value here. I can go into any store and have the same service, but the labor to help me has to be available all of the time and if that labor is in use I end up leaving the store. Any service like this which can process a queue of customer requests is way more efficient per unit of labor. Similar to the way email is so much better than interuptive phone calls. I really like that business model.
Advertising is not native to the webnet
When will disqus offer voice interface?
it’s Android.. and Others
Apple has become completely irrelevant according to her presentation.Referenced only twice, once for its declining iOS and once visually at the top of this slide !https://image.slidesharecdn…The failed AppleWatch will apparently not intersect with the transparent ease delivered via “Voice-Interfaces” nor benefit from “Messaging-as-Platform” which seems likely, in the long run, to move down the stack into the OS where it can be optimize via hardware integration.Is this good or bad news for Android-Wear ?
As it stands today, subject to change, nobody needs that amazon echo except early adopters, techies and some millenials. Here is a quick overview of what it offers today:http://www.cnet.com/picture…There is a long long way for that to become a ubiquitous used in fly over country device like the iphone did.That said anything that echo could do Apple watch could do with a great deal more convenience in many more places. Since if people find it useful they won’t mind having it on their hand and it will be where they are not in some room or located next to the stove (or needing multiple devices in many places).Note that this is the one that the writer “uses everyday” (setting a timer for cooking):http://www.cnet.com/picture…
AppleWatch by its very nature is a slow liftoff product.”Watch” this space 🙂
Interestingly … Jeff Besoz shared that Amazon Echo unit now has 1000 people working in it:* http://www.recode.net/2016/…* http://fortune.com/2016/06/…
Is there a podcast ?
Fred:We follow and respect Mary Meeker work but there where no revelation or tea leaf reading provided. If Mary provided this insight ten years ago it would have been an transformative.
William Mougayar:Did you review Elon Musk interview at the Code Conference?http://www.usatoday.com/sto…The statements the media wants to push regarding his views on AI. The more puzzling issue is no one discussing more immediate dangers to the public which the CDC kept safety incidents from Congress. Bioterror pathogens in unauthorized areas not reported after being requested is frightening. That is a threat right now and not in the future.http://www.usatoday.com/sto…
Amazing presentation by Mary. I wish she spoke more about Fintech. There are some amazing algorithmic trading platforms that will change the world of trading like TradeIdeas http://bit.ly/1Zb7EEH
“Internet trends”?For Silicon Valley, its information technology venture capital, and KPCB, there’s a fundamental problem with this title: They cannot be much interested in trends. Instead, about all the can care about are exceptions, disruptions, successful swings for the fences, successes so large that in history they happen only a few times each decade. With the continuing mentions of patterns, etc., at times I wonder if all of Silicon Valley has quite appreciated this point yet.
this is institutional analysis. by the time you can identify a trend… it’s too late, unless you work as a VC in a firm with deep pockets.
Voice, images = search and much more. Such an amazing presentation and future.
I looks great ! Yet I wonder whether there is enough infrastructure to support this kind of traffic …
There will soon be a huge # of single use cases that justify the purchase of an iWatch a product which by the way also represents Apples first entry into low-cost mobile/computing devices.Text-Interface context accuracy will soon be simplified/amplified by the cultural emergence of natural language context-honing memes that find common ground between natural/machine language needs!Just think for example of all the things you could do to simplify the management of old age care homes with the use of iWatches that the residents need only respond to with little to no understanding of the iWatch itself.
What? Did your dog take control of your keyboard?