Cranes

I was walking down a street in the Chelsea neighborhood of NYC this morning and came across a street closing.

cranes

The entire block was closed to cars because that crane was busy lifting heavy material to the upper floors of a building that is being constructed right now.

This is a common occurrence in NYC these days. There is construction all over the place.

I was in a cab last week and the driver told me that he has never seen more street closings and cranes in NYC than right now. He was complaining about it.

But I have a different view. Cranes, street closings, road construction, manhole work, etc are an inconvenience for sure. But they are a sign of vitality, the look of a city evolving and growing in front of our very eyes. Lose the cranes and the construction crews and you will see a city slowly dying.

I understand the anti-development, anti-gentrification folks. I appreciate that they are trying to maintain some semblance of history and personal scale. And I appreciate that they are trying to protect people from being forced out of their homes, schools, and neighborhoods by the capitalist desire for more, more, more.

But there must be a balance. We cannot decide to stop evolving and growing. We need to find ways to do it gracefully and respectfully. The anti-development forces are doing us all a favor by making sure that happens. But when they dominate the discussion, things grind to a halt and nothing happens. That is not where we want to be.

So when I see a street closed by a crane, I celebrate it. It’s progress. No pain, no gain.

#NYC#policy#Politics

Comments (Archived):

  1. JimHirshfield

    No crane, no gain?

    1. Vasudev Ram

      Oh no, not again 🙂

    2. William Mougayar

      Your sense of humor is sky high.Did you use a crane to get it up there 🙂

    3. Richard

      Economists say “Cranes in the air, beware” what I don’t understand is how every major city is flooded is cranes yet the economy is growing at 1-2%. Any explanations ?

      1. jason wright

        Migration.

        1. Richard

          How does this explain it?

          1. jason wright

            Seasonal patterns.

          2. creative group

            Rich Weisberger:The Economist who know are not telling and working for investment banks and the Economists who are telling don’t know what is happening until after it happened.The majority of the world is codependent on each other’s economy new factors require new input. Conventional thinking doesnt apply when China manipulates their currency and other countries require EU bailouts nothing is traditional.

          3. Richard

            What’s your point ?

          4. creative group

            Rich Weisberger:we will not attempt to question your comprehension of economics. The many different answers you received is in direct relation to our summary. No one knows until after something occurred. Conventional wisdom can’t be applied to different economic models not seen before.

      2. William Mougayar

        Real estate alone is not enough. It’s a good chunk of the economy, but building bricks and mortars is usually an effect of something else, not the source that yields other benefits.

        1. Richard

          It may be small part of total spending, but again and again, i hear that almost every city seems to be booming, yet the economy is said to be limping.

      3. Matt Zagaja

        Because the growth is concentrated in the cities so even though the national GDP might be low, it’s much higher in Boston, NYC, etc.

        1. Richard

          This doesn’t explain it, as cities are where incomes and people are concentrated.

          1. Matt Zagaja

            I think your reasoning/evidence doesn’t support your conclusion, it supports mine. Unless I’m missing something.

          2. Richard

            I don’t see how. If you take the population of America’s 20 largest cities and the income and wealth of this population, and all signs say these are rosy, how and why is the economy limping along?

          3. Matt Zagaja

            Because most Americans don’t live in Boston, New York City, etc. 645,966 people live in Boston, 837,442 live in San Francisco, and 8.4 million live in NYC, and 318.9 million live in the United States. NYC is 2.6% of the US population. There are plenty of small cities that are still cities like Hartford, CT that are not experiencing the growth that NYC/Boston are, and then also a good portion of America lives in rural areas that are not doing well. Like it or not places like NYC, San Francisco, and Boston are special snowflakes full of the one percent (in more categories than one). It’s a power law distribution of success.

          4. Richard

            nyc may only have 8.4/318.9 of the population but it has 1.55/17 trillion of the gross domestic product. Back of envelope still seem to make robust urban activity and the anemic gap growth somewhat a mystery/

          5. Amar

            There is also the problem of growth. Here is an example: Just 20 large urban counties nationwide—less than one percent of the nation’s 3,000-plus counties—accounted for half of new business establishments, according to a report released today by the Economic Innovation Group. http://www.citylab.com/poli…Of course good policies can help with some of this but some of this is just a natural outcome of capitalism, not sure there is a simple answer to this.

          6. Matt Zagaja

            The mystery is not that difficult to solve. If NYC were to on its own elevate the national GDP by 3% it’d have to grow from 1.55 to 2.06 trillion or 33%. From a qualitative standpoint 33% GDP growth for an area is insane. China at the height of its boom reached 19.4% and even then people thought that was bananas.

          7. Richard

            But it’s not just NYC, it’s LA, it’s SF, it’s SD, it’s Seattle and the list traverses the country,l

          8. Matt Zagaja

            Doesn’t matter. As we go lower on the power law curve of GDP for cities, the amount of growth that any individual city has to achieve to make a significant impact on the national GDP increases exponentially. Relying on the top 20 cities in America to fix our economic growth problems for the nation is like relying on a squirt gun to put out a house fire. If these cities did grow at the rate needed to make a solid dent in national GDP, it would be historically unprecedented. But even if they did succeed it would not impact the distribution of this success.

    4. kenberger

      It must be erection season.

  2. William Mougayar

    Absolutely. A couple of years ago, Toronto was the city with the most cranes in North America, with 130, followed by NYC who had 91; and that was a good thing. Last week, I was in Beirut and the number of cranes there was very high. Construction and high rises everywhere, and that means a lot about the economic vibrancy.https://uploads.disquscdn.c

    1. Brandon G. Donnelly

      +1

  3. NS

    Love the energy and dynamism of NYC. Spent a lot of time there. When it came to living there it seemed like there were only two extremes – live in a shoebox with roommates straight out of school or a multi-millionaire but not much in between — hard to balance.

    1. Guy Lepage

      Ah. It depends what you consider to be a “shoe box.” Seems as though all apartment living is close to the same, city to city.

      1. NS

        Agree, it is similar across big cities

  4. pointsnfigures

    Lots of construction in Chicago too. 0% interest rates will do that. The tax code favors real estate development. Was speaking with a real estate developer and he said that if a building is 60% occupied (not 100%) it’s better tax wise because of the code. Sounds weird to me.

    1. JLM

      .If done correctly, CF breakeven is approximately 72%.AOLB is 55% until CF B/E.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

      1. pointsnfigures

        Worse in Chicago. All the damn runs/walks etc they have almost every week on the lakefront. They close down all kinds of roads in the Loop and make it impossible to get around.

      2. LE

        Not really aqrp is actually only 43% until CF B/E.

      3. Richard

        Rule of thumb for condo buildings?

    2. Chuck

      Agreed. I’m amazed at how many residential buildings have gone up or are in the process of being built as of late.

  5. Peter Van Dijck

    Agreed. Same thing with highrises. No highrises mean you end up with an un-affordable city, a pretty playground for the rich. Tearing down pretty old houses can end up being the right thing.

    1. Mike Zamansky

      Unfortunately, last I checked we’re getting more and more highrises for the rich – not a whole lot of balance.Gentrification all to often means driving out the poor and working class and enlarging the playground for the rich rather than uplifting existing communities.

      1. Peter Van Dijck

        Yes highrises for the rich is a problem. But still better than no high rises at all, if the well off get fancy new appartments in a new highrise, that leaves some of the existing less fancy housing supply for the less well off. It’s demand/supply in the end, if you don’t increase the supply you will end up with an unaffordable city, see San Francisco for a beautiful case study.

        1. Mike Zamansky

          Wish that were true — throughout my career I’ve seen my younger colleagues (teachers) forced further and further out to the fringes of the city as new development and gentrification push all rents up.Meanwhile, as a resident in one of the only moderate income coops left in the city (the Penn South Coops at the north end of Chelsea), I’ve seen a lot of long time businesses with lots of table turnover (for restaurants) and traffic being forced out as the rents skyrocket.From my viewpoint, this increasing of the housing supply is just accelerating the city’s march towards ultra rich and ultra poor.

      2. LE

        Many of those places have “poor doors” as part of an agreement. And you know people still aren’t happy with that. The ultimate in entitlement. They get to live in a brand new building at ridiculously low rents which they got by winning the lottery (for housing that is).Tenants who were chosen to live in one of the 55 low-income units in Extell’s ritzy 33-story building recently started trickling in through the poor door — and many are disturbed by the glaring disparities. “The thing I don’t like most is we don’t have the same amenities,” said Christina Figueras, 27, a single mother of two. Though Figueras “feels lucky” to have landed her two-bedroom $1,082-per-month pad after moving from an upper Manhattan housing project, she said cash-poor tenants have no dishwashers, doormen or light fixtures in bedrooms and living rooms.http://nypost.com/2016/01/1…Renters on the “poor” side — units of which start at $833 for a studio without river views — have access only to a bike-storage closet, an unfinished laundry room and a common space that faces a courtyard they’re not allowed to enter. By comparison to anyone not familiar with NYC rental real estate my daughter pays roughly $2600 per month for a studio apartment in a building that is nowhere near as nice as this on 86th st. I don’t know if the laundry room is finished or not. There is no doorman either.

        1. Mike Zamansky

          I don’t know what the situation is like now, but when I was looking (many moons ago), the rent restrictions were such that if you were, at least by my standards, moderate income, you earned too much to be allowed into moderate income housing.It’s also a pittance in terms of inventory – what is it? 80/20 – which goes with that sound assumption that 80% of your population is rich and 20% is moderate or low income (depending on the building or complex).Then you get the problem that at least in my case, these deals expire. I was living in Waterside when it came out of it’s middle income program – overnight, rents skyrocketed. We were lucky – we were able to manage until Penn South came through — others, not so much.

          1. LE

            Philosophically though I don’t know which group has the right to live in NYC if, for whatever the reason, they can’t afford to live there.The reason it is so expensive is because NYC keeps having more and more people want to reside there and seek out opportunity. It’s not the birth rate or anything like that. (At least not in Manhattan). An example of this is my daughter who almost certainly would be living where her mother lives now outside of Philly working at a dull company in the suburbs but instead is in NYC. Because I pushed her to live there. Ditto for my other daughter who is graduating this year from college. Her boyfriend is interviewing at a job in NYC as well and will need housing. Many of their friends from college have also taken up jobs there. [1] So there are three plus people that could easily live elsewhere (as you could for that matter) but instead would rather live in the city.You know why? Because it’s become a nice upscale place to live. And it has all this world class publicity drawing people there (don’t forget SNL started in 1975 and that in itself has drawn constant attention to the city as a hip place to be). Movies, frequent attention in the world press and so on. Philly is very nice (on a small scale) 90 miles away and housing is very reasonable but it doesn’t have the cache of NYC.[1] Not only that but there is a constant stream of people who want to come and visit because NYC is a great place to visit. It’s almost like having a beach house.

          2. Mike Zamansky

            Yeah – philosophically, I don’t know either and I’m not smart enough to have a solution. I just can’t believe that it’s long term healthy to push your day to day workers – from your cleaners to your teachers to you nurses, etc farther and farther out.One of the things I always loved about NY was the mix — all types – economic diversity, cultural diversity, etc. – it’s losing that and that’s a shame.

          3. LE

            Well they could carve a piece of that huge park in the middle of the city out for affordable housing!On a quick check I see that Central Park is 840 acres. Lefrak city, which houses 14,000 people is roughly 40 acres. Built from scratch with enough density that could almost certainly be stretched.Of course this would never happen because of the way central park is viewed by the last men over the bridge that get to use it. But honestly it would be the least expensive alternative to providing housing.Imagine the health care cost to society as a result of all of those commutes that the workers have to do to get around NY metro. A girl that I dated, her mother was a teacher and lived in Staten Island. I think it took her something like 1.5 hours each way to get to her teaching job. I can get to the office is 4 or 5 minutes. No question much less stress and ability to get extra sleep.

      3. Matt Zagaja

        Presumably at some price point workers will simply decline to work in the city unless either affordable housing is provided or their wages are raised to match the real estate prices.

  6. John Revay

    I have been in DC several times over the last several months. The sky line is littered (in a good way) w/ the Tower cranes.Part of me is saying Washington is already too big already, part of me is saying this is good development. Hopefully increasing the tax base as well assuming these are private office buildings.#bigly

    1. William Mougayar

      True. I noticed that as well, a couple of months ago when I was there.

  7. Guy Lepage

    I am of the same camp. I’ll always be a west coaster at heart. There’s never a need to get upset at the little things in life. They’re usually happening for a reason. “Don’t sweat the small stuff.” Is what comes to mind.

  8. Rob Underwood

    So much construction right now in Park Slope and Gowanus. Huge multi year sewer and gas line project in front of my house. Drives me fucking crazy but you are absolutely right. It’s progress.And I like things that lift things up and put them down which is what I am doing right now.https://instagram.com/p/BMM

    1. ShanaC

      Also prospect heights/crown heights. My block just won’t stop. I’m starting to get a permanent headache.Park slope seems quiet in comparison

  9. Brock

    We know cranes here in Seattle…Seattle skyline is tops in construction cranes — more than any other U.S. city http://www.seattletimes.com… via @seattletimes

    1. Richard

      I can’t imagine any city having more construction than Los Angeles.

  10. Ana Milicevic

    I walk past Hudson Yards purposefully at least once a week – it’s rare to have that scale of an urban construction project a leisurely stroll from home and it’s fascinating to me to see all the different cranes and machinery that show up on a daily basis.

  11. Steve Hallock

    I’m a free-market guy, and generally pro-development and what other people would see as gentrification. I think most people would be on that side if the market were actually free.The problems come with crony-capitalism, institutionalized racism, widespread bank fraud, etc. Zoning laws, political corruption, unfair lending, and many other factors lead to an unnatural allocation and movement of funds for development. So, the things that get developed and the people who develop them are not necessarily the greatest.If these things were removed, money would flow properly (and even more plentifully), and everyone would be much happier about all of it. Plus we’d likely have self driving cars by now, so a street closure would be no big deal.

    1. ShanaC

      Same. There is so much construction on my block. Next block over, not so much, it’s zoned as a bus yard for the Monsey Bus.

  12. Tom Labus

    I hope the old meatpacking area doesn’t get wiped out. The entire high line is under construction and has been for years. Fine line where balance is required

    1. Twain Twain

      High Line is one of the best spots in NYC.There’s a lot of great artwork there. https://uploads.disquscdn.c

      1. Tom Labus

        This and hudson river park, my favorite walks

  13. Ian Orekondy

    It’s not the cranes, street closures or progress that is the key issue for me. It’s that so many times the construction results in a generic, mall-like city that looks and feels the same as any other city. ATM vestibules replacing historic bagel shops and 7/11 replacing independent businesses is not progress for what’s supposed to be the best city in the world. It alienates our most creative citizens and drives them to other burroughs and cities with more progressive zoning policies.

    1. Richard

      Yep, the brick n mortar retail game at the current rental rates is over for most entrepreneurs.

    2. jason wright

      The city, commoditised. property sold as ‘units’ to the global investor market, and many remain unoccupied by choice.I wonder how blocktech will change the landscape of cities?

    3. ShanaC

      Yup.I wish we had interesting, affordable architects flooding the city

      1. Matt Zagaja

        If people are compensated by how skilled they are, then isn’t affordable is the opposite of interesting?

        1. Joel Monegro

          People are compensated by supply and demand

        2. ShanaC

          They aren’t. Architecture isn’t purely skill. It’s a hugely creative discipline with a journeyman period for licensing purposes, while also requiring (usually) a masters degree and equivalent debt as well. As a result, it’s hard to hire young architects straight out of school for small, experimental projects, becuase they are all in firms gaining a license or paying off debt. Small, experimental projects rarely pay enough unless you are further along with your career and are doing it for prestige – a place most people never get to.

        3. ShanaC

          There is certified and there is skilled. We’ve moved to needing more certification over the years. The skill level really hasn’t changed

  14. jason wright

    No lens flare. What camera did you use to snap the crane may I ask?

  15. John Pepper

    My only concern with so many cranes is that when the economy pauses, which it inevitably does, those cranes can stand idle for months. The unfinished holes in the ground… for years. Remember downtown crossing in boston, only finally completed earlier this year after at least 7 years posing as the site of a massive meteor strike.In 2010 I remember noticing that zero cranes stood in downtown Boston. And I noticed because when I was visiting DC where there seemed to be no recession there were many and they looked out of place. As long as we are building and progressing to meet real needs for housing and businesses, this construction will be terrific. But when I hear developers feeling they need to break ground so they don’t miss their shot while the going is good, it makes me think of an old fashioned game of hot potato… just substitute potatoes for cranes. Hopefully we’ve learned our lesson from the last time we had so many cranes dotting the skyline.

    1. LE

      Overbuilding at the top end as documented in this example (I’ve seen a few stories like this):A three-bedroom unit on the 62nd floor of One57, a newly built condominium towering over New York City’s Central Park, has sold for $23.5 million, or 25% under its original sale price of $31.7 million. According to Noble Black of Douglas Elliman Real Estate, who had the listing with colleague Emily Sertic, the apartment was first listed for roughly $41 million with another firm in 2014, almost immediately after the seller closed on the purchase from builder Extell Development. http://www.wsj.com/articles…This guy will have to wait a bit to get his appreciation. Meanwhile there are carrying costs (tax is abated I think) but still the cost of the money and other upkeep and condo fees will add up.At 1,004-feet high, One57 made headlines when a penthouse closed for $100.5 million in late 2014, setting a new record for New York City apartment sales.

      1. Richard

        At the very high end, losses are just data entries. What more relevant is the $1-2 milliion condo of interest for, dare I say, the middle class. Here in dtls there has been a pull back in prices of 7% this pat years.

  16. jason wright

    What is the state of the city’s utilities infrastructure (sewers, water supply, et.c.).Have they been renewed and modernised, or are they on the to do list?London is spending the UK’s taxes rejuvenating its clapped out Victorian works.

  17. Twain Twain

    When we move over to Hyperloops and personal self-flying cars … more construction will be needed.All the smart city sensors (traffic lights, roads, power grids etc) will have to be re-engineered.https://uploads.disquscdn.chttps://uploads.disquscdn.c

  18. Carlos Nunez

    “Gentrification is awful.”- Someone today at the Starbucks on 125th and Broadway in Harlem

  19. LE

    I just read this last night in Crains NY Business.12 firms envision ways for New York to absorb 9 million residentshttp://www.crainsnewyork.co…But as the city’s population surges toward 9 million, the time for thinking small is now past. Fortunately, there’s no shortage of big ideas to fill the void—which is why we asked a group of leading architects, designers and real estate experts to offer up some of their visions for the city’s future. So as we examine Moses’ complex legacy, and its impact on how things get built today, we also glimpse some possibilities to come, and take comfort in the prospect that we can make it here. … https://uploads.disquscdn.c

  20. LE

    Fwiw Trump pretty much started this in the late 70’s when he built Trump Tower.The glitz of that (and resulting publicity) almost certainly planted the seeds of buildings (and developers) that came later. [1] Certainly I don’t think that anyone in NYC, in the days of “Ford to City Drop Dead” could argue with the impact of the publicity that building brought and what happened after it.Even back then people bitched:In 1979, before construction had even begun, there was opposition to the construction of Trump Tower and other buildings in the area. The New York Committee for a Balanced Building Boom was concerned about the planned rezoning of the area that would arise due to the construction of high-rise towers along Fifth Avenue between 40th and 57th StreetsNice that he begged, borrowed, stole and bullshitted to get past that one, eh?To anyone not old enough to remember NYC in the 70’s was a shit hole. Watch some documentaries on this (or watch the movie “The Taking of Pelham 123” (the original one)).I was there in the 70’s as a kid. Believe me all you wanted to do was get out of the city. It was grimy and low class and dangerous and crime was rampant. And who could forget the squeegee men that Giuliani got rid of. Such a simple idea but nobody had the balls to do it prior or with grafitti or broken windows in policing. My dad passed on an opportunity to buy real estate there at bargain prices. Those making fortunes today held on or bought back then when it was cheap.http://articles.orlandosent…[1] Even if there were other similar buildings before it. And honestly I am not sure to what extent that was even the case.

  21. Alexander Borschow

    Cranes almost always mean new construction. How about we focus on sustainably reusing existing construction? so many millions of tons of new concrete, steel and wood being used every year in NYC; that is millions of tons of more CO2 being released. Need to be more conscious on how we develop and progress

    1. creative group

      Alexander Borschow:the Progressives with wealth will not admit it publicly but privately (The norm with progressives, a private and public position) the old buildings need to be replaced with new buildings that are more efficient, sustainable and esthetically appealing.Tear down and replace every non historic building in the country. The old buildings are wasting more energy etc. (Reread before responding with emotions)

  22. Salt Shaker

    “Seattle this summer had 58 construction cranes reshaping the skyline — more than any other city in the country, according to recent data.”Growth is important as long as you have amble infrastructure to sustain that growth. Not sure that’s the case here in Seattle.http://www.seattletimes.com

  23. WA

    Top of the cranes – top of the market.

  24. Ryan Miller

    Seattle is undergoing similar growing pains (looks like @bobmonsour:disqus found some data to back this up). I remind the grousers that if you genuinely believe progress along a certain vector is harmful, get engaged. Join a board in your community, read up on city initiatives, have a voice. Growth is chaotic, true, but decay is its own kind of chaos that isn’t so easily controlled.

  25. creative group

    CONTRIBUTORS:Cranes equals economy doing well, etc.When POTUS inherited the worst economic time that the baby boomers can remember, the economy has returned to a healthier state under his watch. The complainers present an alternative reality to what has been occurring. If one economic indicator was negative the complainers were sure to attribute it to him. When the surplus was squandered by GWB (a name the complainers dare mention for shame) they will again not acknowledge mismanagement if it is someone they support, they will deflect.The complainers who refuse to retrain as did millions under the Reagan administration, which the complainers consider the greatest POTUS, which is a economically flat out lie and economic disaster for those who awaited the trickle down. (Facts under Reagan: High interest rates, high unemployment, high fuel, economic mess for those not blessed with the Union jobs now not in vogue)The United States of America doesn’t await to be great again it is already great.The United States doesn’t need the complainers Fuehrer. (We realize the meek apologists and Kumbaya singers will be outraged for calling the racist, misogyist, xenophobic complainers out.The usual fake public stance, but jumping up in private because they are unwilling to take a stand with the known knuckleheads. Don’t take the Ult-Right, conspiracy theorists for granted. They will not stop at manipulating the less educated base up to election day and beyond). If DJT loses the election the system is rigged but if he wins it isn’t. A sad attempt at a joke, a real nightmare)We as Independents acknowledge HRC is a politician and lies. We expect her too. But DJT a so called non Politician who lies 70℅ of the time with videos to support and his sins are no different.People are not getting different with DJT they are getting worse. The less educated base deflects, doesn’t acknowledge the facts and will attack the opponent. We acknowledge HRC lies. Again DJT a non Politician who lies 70℅ of the time. Deflect, deflect, deflect.

    1. JLM

      .There are those who would be tempted to say that if this rant were slightly more organized, it would be gibberish.I just don’t know. Might be unfair to gibberish?JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

      1. creative group

        JLM:Blah blah blah blah blah. Deflect, deflect and deflect.The good side is four more years of obstruction, talk radio conspiracy theories andwatching Trumpettes Kellyann Conway and Kayleigh McEnany wail on the new Trump TV. If nothing else it will be short on facts but big on 70℅ of lies.

  26. sigmaalgebra

    Yes, I’ve sensed that new growth. I can’t see it in the usual statistics on the economy, but I suspect it is real. So, I suspect that somehow the economy is about to start growing again, after the eight years of the crash of 2008.So, for about a year, I’ve looked at Trump’s promise of being “the greatest jobs president” and guessed, whether he knows it or not, but I have to suspect he does know it, that the next POTUS — unless they are a total mentally defective, psychopathic, delusional, dysfunctional, disconnected, destructive, dangerous, disastrous uncomprehending pile of trash or worse, right, HRH, and sadly, tragically no joke, a severe threat to nearly everything about the US and even the world — will automatically be “the greatest jobs president” since whenever, say, the mobilization of the US after 12/7/1941 or maybe the over heated economy from LBJ’s waste in Viet Nam while running the Space Race and the Cold War.So, net, Trump’s promise looks correct but, if he gets elected, would still be correct even if all he did was, say, a lot like Obama, work on his golf game, his swimming laps, his jump shot, lose a lot of weight, etc.But Trump is promising to pay close attention to our trade deals, enforce the current deals and renegotiate or cancel some others. First, cut, sounds good, no matter what Pareto or, for different reasons, the one-worlders think. But as Trump makes progress on the trade deals, it would appear that the US will get a lot of jobs.I know; I know: Maybe some foreign buyers of products from Microsoft, Cisco, QUALCOMM, Boeing, Google ads, etc. will revolt, spend less with such US companies, and slow that growth, but somehow I suspect this effect will be small, and the effect of more domestic growth will be stronger.But really, apparently first cut from Trump’s statements, his jobs growth is aimed at people who lost their jobs due to imports from, say, our $700+ billion a year trade deficit and the run down of jobs in US manufacturing and didn’t have jobs to lose in some of the rundown US central cities.Yes, I know; I know; I’d very much like to see more details, e.g., an appropriate Leontief model, but that’s college work while the actual policy discussions in this election are either missing or in early grade school.If there were holes in Trump’s plans, then, sure, HRH and/or her lap dog, lacky mainstream media (MSM) should be discussing them, but HRH is so mentally defective (sorry, literally) she couldn’t find the holes in a colander, much less conceive (she is completely unable to think effectively about anything real) of a way to fix the holes or competently direct an effective program to fix the holes (she is totally disconnected from reality).E.g., HRH told some bankers in Brazil that she wants an Americas common market with free trade and open borders — delusional, disconnected, destructive, dangerous, disastrous. HRH is so separated from reality that (A) she is eager to shut down nearly all of the US energy industry based on some psycho-o, sick-o, wack-o, Saint Laureate Al Guru, NYT, flim-flam, fraud scam in profound conflict with about a million years of rock solid climate data yet (B) throw open the economies of the Americas from near the Arctic to near the Antarctic based on nothing but her late night college ditsy, distaff, humanities major sophomore bull sessions, e.g., like the Amherst coeds Newt Gingrich had to calm down inhttps://www.youtube.com/wat…What was the advice to college boys? Sure, just meet one of those ditsy coeds at a party, get her a couple of beers, talk about saving the world while looking sincere, sing some folk music, and then have her in bed all night having her prove that she is a modern, independent, autonomous, tough as nails, routinely beats up on Navy Seals and Army Rangers several at a time, self-sufficient, liberated, equal, feminist woman. She’s a ditsy bimbo — she doesn’t deserve respect. Her poor father, having to pay all that tuition just so she can arrive at college as a sober virgin, leave as a drunken slut, reading, say, Saul Alinsky, but get her Mrs. degree and a baby and otherwise avoid reality.So, HRH’s contribution to the campaign is some of what she learned in her college senior paper on Saul Alinsky and his rules, e.g., when a candidate (A) has a fault that candidate (B) might attack, then candidate (A) should preemptively attack candidate (B) for that fault, get candidate (B) spending all their time in the campaign defending themselves against that attack and, thus, not talking about their proposals and not attacking candidate (A) on the fault. I’ve got a list of about 10 of these that Hillary uses.E.g., since Bill and Hill have such sordid sex lives, accuse the same of Trump. So, trot out, on cue, in order 10 or so bimbos who will lie. Gee, I wonder what the going rate is, say, in comparison with the Mustang Ranch? Sure, get the sick-o NYT to publicize at least one of the lies. Sure, in a few days nearly all the lies get debunked. E.g., for the NYT lie, the arm rest on that plane in first class was really wide and did not move. Sorry bimbo; next time check your background data better.Meanwhile play the standard cards — the race card, the sexist card, the woman card, etc. So, Trump, the guy who worked hard to get rid of racism in the high end Palm Beach clubs, e.g., as inThe American Spectator, “When Trump Fought the Racists”, November 13, 2015, 9:00 am.athttp://spectator.org/64643_…accuse him of racism. Just make the accusation. No data, just lie.And, for the sexist card, since it is clear that Trump likes beautiful women, just accuse him of attacking women. Just make the accusation. Lie. Then get some bimbos to lie. Get the lap dog MSM to repeat the lies.Yup, HRH is “stronger together”, together with her constant companion who carries her meds:https://pbs.twimg.com/media…Yup, strong HRH, ready to lead the free world, will make it up that last step one more time if she possibly can:https://pbs.twimg.com/media…Her problem here is a medical condition? The letter from her physician claims she is healthy. So, here she is drunk?Who is the Secret Service guy who has the honor of carrying the step?https://pbs.twimg.com/media…She’s so overweight her knees hurt? She’s drunk? Something else? To use that step, gotta be something.Yup, just the right temperament for POTUS and Commander in Chief:http://media.breitbart.com/…For some more on that stable, thoughtful, responsible POTUS temperament with the nuke footballhttps://pbs.twimg.com/media…Gee, it looks like she is angry because she doesn’t have a vase to throw at a Secret Service guy.Yes, here is HRH on one of her better days, strong, alert, healthy:https://pbs.twimg.com/media…Maybe she was off her meds for 24 hours. Or maybe she was staggering drunk for the past 18 hours.Maybe her reactions are sincere for once:http://media.breitbart.com/…Or, he just told her that on November 9th he’d give her a pardon?Or, who said anything about Obama’s third term?But, she’s popular, right? I mean, the claim that she couldn’t fill a phone booth is such a distortion. I mean, there is for one of her rallies:http://media.breitbart.com/…where she might be able to fill several phone booths? They just needed to have much smaller room!She DOES know how to smile: A week of rest, some meds, a lot on makeup, hair, and clothes, sober, and, presto, bingo, bimbo:http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/…Gee, put her up for an Academy Award, at least her makeup artist.Is it just makeup or also meds or more? Or for the “before” picturehttp://www1.pictures.zimbio…Definitely an Academy Award for the makeup artist!Yup, here is our wannabe Commander in Chief out for a 10 minute walk from Happy Acres rehab with her full time, faithful companionhttp://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/…Maybe Hillary is on the sauce?http://www.truthrevolt.org/…And at 3 AM when Benghazi called, she was sleeping it off?OrWhiskey Leave Me Alone as inhttps://www.youtube.com/wat…Drink up Hillary!!!!She is a good actress, with a smile or laugh on cue, and good at selling her honor and her country for money.But, really, whose country? Does she really regard the US as her country, something she is devoted to or just something she wants to rip off for money or whatever she wants?No question here: She wants to sell everything she can for money and have her husband running around the world “dick*ng bimbos” and shouting “Hillary for sale!”.Maybe she would learn something and not sell the Oval Office and instead, just rent it for, say, $100 million an hour.Yes, there are, as HRH would put it, “rumors” or “conspiracy theories” that she is nasty.Well, there is also some expert evidence:Gary J. Byrne, Crisis of Character: A White House Secret Service Officer Discloses His Firsthand Experience with Hillary, Bill, and How They Operate, ISBN-10: 1455568872, ISBN-13: 978-1455568871, Center Street, June 28, 2016.or articles on that book and interviews of the author, e.g., as athttp://www.breitbart.com/ra…Gee, the first Comey presentation said that Hillary was “extremely careless” in her handling of some highly classified US national security information. Well, …, the bottom line is that Hillary is in massive violation of section (f) of the US Espionage Act and, as a result, belongs in court and then, very likely, jail. She can take her smile with her:https://social.yl.ms/proxy/…But, on Hillary’s criminal activity, there are three more points so far not often mentioned:(1) Classified TrafficAs US Secretary of State, Hillary sent/received tens of thousands of e-mail messages. The main e-mail server she used was the one in her house.With such heavy e-mail use in her job, she MUST have sent/received many thousands of e-mail messages with classified, even highly classified, information, information classified at the time.She has claimed to have turned over to the FBI and/or Congress all of her work-related e-mail data. Well, from the FBI investigation, only a few hundred or so messages had information marked as classified at the time.Still, from her job, there should, instead, be tens of thousands. Where are they?We now have a good guess at what was in the 33,000 messages she deleted from her e-mail server.(2) FBI InvestigationApparently Hillary’s home e-mail server was on Windows 2003 running Exchange. So, she was using standard SMTP e-mail. Well, in the header lines, there are key words TO:, FROM:, and CC:So, for each e-mail message the FBI had, they also had the header data for FROM: and CC: Of course, each message Hillary sent/received (except to/from her Internet e-mail domain) existed elsewhere, on other e-mail servers, and for .GOV Internet domain names still exists. That is, there were and likely mostly still are copies of nearly everything elsewhere.Following that data, they could get some more e-mail messages, likely also relevant to Hillary’s case and likely some or most of the so far deleted and missing 33,000. E.g., an obvious first place to go would be the e-mail accounts of Mills, Huma, Huma’s husband, etc. Some of those accounts would be on a .GOV domain and, thus, well managed, backed up, etc.So, by not following that header line FROM: and CC: data, it appears that the FBI did a wildly incompetent job gathering information about Hillary’s e-mail data.Now, now, now why would the highly esteemed, stellar reputation US FBI do such a sick-o thing? Well, let’s see: IIRC, Comey and Hillary go way back. So do Hillary and Lynch. And gotta suspect that Obama is in on it all. Maybe if any of them go to court, they all will have to go to court. Could be.(3) WirelessThere has been a lot of talk about did anyone hack Hillary’s home Windows 2003 Exchange e-mail server. Well, maybe.But there was a much, much easier way: Hack her usage of her wireless, mobile e-mail clients, 13 Blackberries, an iPhone, an iPad, and a mini-iPad.IIRC, the Blackberry did not encrypt its wireless data.Moreover, to use e-mail, commonly Hillary walked to an open balcony of the State Department building, a balcony wide open to the whole world.So, any well funded hacker needed just to park a car not too far from that balcony and use some wireless gear to receive all of Hillary’s e-mail traffic, in particular, her e-mail Internet domain name, her e-mail login name, and her login password. Then, with this data, the hacker could from anywhere on the Internet login to Hillary’s e-mail account as Hillary and download ALL of her e-mail traffic.Yes, I’d be “shocked, shocked to learn that” Russia, China, Iran, the US NSA, the US CIA, the US DIA, etc. had all of Hillary’s e-mail traffic.Here is someone with some opinions on Hillary:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/…Stop, Wait, This Just InYup, one of the most serious signs of an alcoholic is going to a bar on Sunday morning, e.g., for some “hair of the dog” from the big Saturday night drunk.Well, as athttp://www.thegatewaypundit…guess where Hillary decided to campaign this Sunday morning?Right, a bar!Drink up Hillary. You’ve got hundreds of millions of dollars you can spend on booze, that is, before the IRS, DoJ, etc. take it from you!Since you have some really good buddies at UBS, maybe they could tell you how to stash a lot of your cash in Switzerland. Then, move there and f’get about the FBI, etc! And you wouldn’t have to go thirsty — German and Dutch beer, French wine, German Kirschwasser, no doubt plenty of Russian vodka!

  27. george

    There’s quite a bit of development going on in LA, and yes, it’s a pain to drive but progress really does feel good. I’m not taken back by gentrification, everyone/everything has a lifecycle and the principles of economics are at play (supply/demand).On balance, structures (buildings) are much easier to plan but our systems (transportation) are lagging behind; I’m sure that over the next 10 years, tech will help fix this issue.

  28. Vasudev Ram

    Based on the post topic and comments, I felt like mentioning:- Christopher Alexander:https://en.wikipedia.org/wi…whose influence crossed over from (building) architecture to software (design patterns etc.)https://en.wikipedia.org/wi…Excerpt:[ Christopher Wolfgang Alexander (born 4 October 1936 in Vienna, Austria)[1][2] is a widely influential architect and design theorist, and currently emeritus professor at the University of California, Berkeley. His theories about the nature of human-centered design have had notable impacts across many fields beyond architecture, including urban design, software, sociology and other fields.[3] Alexander has also designed and personally built over 100 buildings, both as an architect and a general contractor.[4][5]In the field of software, Alexander is regarded as the father of the pattern language movement. The first wiki – the technology behind Wikipedia – led directly from Alexander’s work, according to its creator, Ward Cunningham.[6][7] Alexander’s work has also influenced the development of agile software development and Scrum.[8]In architecture, Alexander’s work is used by a number of different contemporary architectural communities of practice, including the New Urbanist movement, to help people to reclaim control over their own built environment.[9] However, Alexander is controversial among some mainstream architects and critics, in part because his work is often harshly critical of much of contemporary architectural theory and practice.[10]Alexander is known for his many books on the design and building process, including Notes on the Synthesis of Form, A City is Not a Tree (first published as a paper and recently re-published in book form), The Timeless Way of Building, A New Theory of Urban Design, and The Oregon Experiment. More recently he published the four-volume The Nature of Order: An Essay on the Art of Building and the Nature of the Universe, about his newer theories of “morphogenetic” processes, and The Battle for the Life and Beauty of the Earth, about the implementation of his theories in a large building project in Japan.Alexander is perhaps best known for his 1977 book A Pattern Language, a perennial seller some four decades after publication.[11] Reasoning that users are more sensitive to their needs than any architect could be,[12][13][14] he produced and validated (in collaboration with his students Sara Ishikawa, Murray Silverstein, Max Jacobson, Ingrid King, and Shlomo Angel) a “pattern language” to empower anyone to design and build at any scale. ]and another architect:- Laurie Baker:https://en.wikipedia.org/wi…Excerpt:[ Laurence Wilfred “Laurie” Baker (2 March 1917 – 1 April 2007) was a British-born Indian architect, renowned for his initiatives in cost-effective energy-efficient architecture and designs that maximized space, ventilation and light and maintained an uncluttered yet striking aesthetic sensibility. Influenced by Mahatma Gandhi and his own experiences in the remote Himalayas, he promoted the revival of regional building practices and use of local materials; and combined this with a design philosophy that emphasized a responsible and prudent use of resources and energy. He was a pioneer of sustainable architecture as well as organic architecture, incorporating in his designs even in the late 1960s, concepts such as rain-water harvesting, minimizing usage of energy-inefficient building materials, minimizing damage to the building site and seamlessly merging with the surroundings. ]O tempora! O mores!https://en.wikipedia.org/wi

  29. Dave Pinsen

    Fred,You travel a lot internationally. How does the ride from JFK to Manhattan compare to rides from other 1st world airports into town?

  30. Lawrence Brass

    https://uploads.disquscdn.c…Cranes, water tanks, sirens, red brick, parks… energy! Deeply missing not being there this year.

  31. yitzi

    I’ve been visiting Israel since I was 8 years old, I’m thirty eight years old now and it always seemed strange just how many cranes could always be seen on the horizon in most Israeli cities.. The cranes were almost a permanent fixture. It was so weird for an American kid to see.. Even in New York in the 80s and 90s I almost never saw cranes, they were a peculiarity. It took me a long time to realise that all those cranes were just a symptom of how much growth is happening all across Israel. Constantly. I moved to Jerusalem when I was twenty two and I’m happy to report everything is still growing here in Israel.. It’s really beautiful to see .. And I’m extremely happy to hear that in New York growth is booming again.. When I left it really felt like New York and the US were in stagnation. Good luck with the election.

  32. jason wright

    Is this Airbnb’s response?

  33. Tamara

    Generally I support development but cranes and the development behind it can lessen quality of life when they increase crowds and congestion, take away light and air, increase rents (while suppressing home values by increasing inventory with higher value units) and make the neighborhood less of a community.I don’t know what development you’re referencing but I think of the hyper tall building under construction on 22nd near Park (I live on that street in Chelsea, a little farther west) and it saddens me as I moved to the hood ten years ago because I liked the smaller profile buildings, and that I wouldn’t have to live in an urban canyon, only to sadly realize that building height restrictions could change. I now know I could live surrounded by 60+ story buildings in a hood normally capped at 15 or so stories. That makes me want out. My view, my light, my vibe, can be gone…just like that. My building was part of the hood tastefully updated but putting up hyper tall buildings and changing the neighborhood fabric on my street is another story. I’m out and sad about it.

  34. Dhruv Toshniwal

    I only see opportunity in this post. There must be a better way to get heavy material to the top floors of a building without needing to close to down an entire block.

  35. Mark Essel

    “Well, every city begins as a slum. First it’s a seasonal camp, with the usual free-wheeling make-shift expediency. Creature comforts are scarce, squalor the norm. Hunters, scouts, traders, pioneers find a good place to stay for the night, or two, and then if their camp is a desirable spot it grows into an untidy village, or uncomfortable fort, or dismal official outpost, with permanent buildings surrounded by temporary huts. If the location of the village favors growth, concentric rings of squatters aggregate around the core until the village swells to a town. When a town prospers it acquires a center — civic or religious — and the edges of the city continue to expand in unplanned, ungovernable messiness.”by Kevin Kelly http://kk.org/thetechnium/t…Kevin has a great deal more to say about the technology of cities in What Technology Wants. Great read. Wholeheartedly agree that continuous construction is a sign of health for NYC.

  36. Dan Nathan

    well said. but I have to share my non-scientific NYC economic barometer… i have lived in NYC for 20 years and like clockwork, when my rage boils to current levels regarding inconveniences caused by this vitality, its followed by an economic downturn. Like the cabbie, I have never seen it likes this.

  37. BillMcNeely

    I second your thought on balance in development. Here in Dallas, “an old” building is 50 years old because the developers are going ape shit developing poorly built condos. At the same time the mayor wanted to retire the old wood based buildings in Dallas to cut down on the fire hazard.

  38. B. Llewellyn Shepard

    Yes, if one owns one’s home, then yes – it’s progress.I do wonder what kind of city this will be when nobody making less than $250,000 will be able to live here.

  39. Thor Snilsberg

    Infrastructure like the BQX is where folks with alternative agendas can compliment straight-up development interests can come together.Question for any development that turns Us vs. Them, if locals and community based organizations offer positives to the development process (ie. “helping us evolve/grow in a graceful/respectful way”), how come we call them “anti-?” Is there another preposition we could use that frames the 1,000s of Jane Jacobs types in a better light right out of the gate?

  40. V Tyree

    P.S.: Hello, To me, it’s comforting to know that change is constant. Be well-watch out for those cranes! v

  41. Pablo Carvallo

    https://uploads.disquscdn.c…A lot of the work we are saying is not only new private construction (such as Hudson Yard), but also, a significant amount of work is on recovering spaces that better our quality of life, such as Navy Yard, 911 Memorial, Brooklyn Bridge Park, Cornell Tech, 2nd Ave Subway and the New Penn Station among others.These investments play a key part in the development of NYC by creating spaces for leisure and creativity most New Yorkers can enjoy, moreover, these projects are creating jobs and helping the local economy.I am the founder of construction equipment on-demand company http://www.tobly.co and we are seeing tremendous industry growth over the past few years only last year the equipment rental grew at 10% as contractors are building more and want to avoid the cost of ownership.

  42. Eric Gockel

    well, and, cranes are cool.

  43. LE

    May sounds pretty good to me.Probably has a better “never a chance in hell” of happening if you pick a month with bad weather.you just can’t have a ton of cranes and trucks operatingHmm. Maybe a ‘cap n trade’ for crane usage. [1][1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wi

  44. Matt Zagaja

    Cambridge has been undergoing a big construction boom since I arrived. 5 housing units have been built out and gone for sale on my street alone in the past year. Selling price all over $2mm.

  45. Richard

    right, but 1/2 of that number was apparently soy bean exports

  46. Richard

    Back of envelope 8k a month for rent, 1k for utilities, 2k a month for a receptionist. Assuming the proprietress could bill at $60/ hour, that’s $500 a day gross or 12k a month. Doesn’t look like they will make a lot of money here.