Fun Friday: Spurs Warriors
The Cavs and the Warriors sure look like they are headed for yet another epic finals.
But I am wondering if we should not look past the semi-final series, in particular, the Spurs Warriors series that starts on Sunday.
Does anyone out there think that the Spurs can beat the Warriors in a seven game series?
And if not, how many games will the Spurs take from the Warriors?
imo 4-2 Warriors … but #letsgoceltics 😉
I give the spurs an outside shot, maybe 1:4 odds. Much like against the rockets, if they can control the pace they can win the game of mismatches and win the game by doing so. Patty Mills, dejonte Murray, and Jonathan Simmons need to step up big time and play beyond what we’ve seen them do for spurs to win in my opinion
Warriors are -1000, Spurs are +625 (and I think that has come down). If you believe your projection then you’re getting good odds.
Not without a healthy Lenard. 1, maybe 2.
Warriors just too strong this season. Plus no TP/healthy Kawhi. 4-2 Warriors, and that’s stretching it.
Spurs have Pop and a shot plus great team culture.
Spurs have Pop and no shot, barring industry.In hoops, if you get off the bus with the best players, you always win.
Yes. I am pulling for the Spurs. Great chemistry. Gonna be hard without Lenard but that’s why you play the games
Could be tough series if LaMarcus Aldridge plays like he did last night, without feeling like he has to defer to Leonard. But in the end, too much firepower, too much speed, too much defense, Warriors in 6.
I think the Spurs will get a game _maybe_ two, but that’s it. Leonard is a top 5 player, but he can’t overcome the Warrior’s depth.
You say that maybe we shouldn’t look past the semi-finals but I’m guilty of looking forward to Cavs vs Warriors since Oct ’16…
no. warriors in 5.
CONTRIBUTORS:Let annual whats popular now in sports bandwagonners begin….Name the players on the bench that dont even touch the court on any team.Enough said with you bandwagonners.Yuk!
CONTRIBUTORS:Herman Edwards former NY Jets coach for the casual whats popular AVC contributors.https://youtu.be/b5-iJUuPWis
Spurs played Warriors well during regular season, better than 2015-16 season. One game, Kerr rested 3 of top players, so easy win for Spurs. Pop coached up his team to slaughter the Rockets without Kawhi, so he’ll have them ready against Warriors. Spurs have outside shot to take two games, but Warriors will probably win in 5. Warriors are 5-8 in playoff Game 3’s so check that one for Spurs. Second win depends on whether Spurs can contain Durant and Curry and hope that Green and Thompson have off/mediocre games. I think Warriors in 5 but could go to 6.
If Parker were available and Kawhi were 100%, I’d give them a 41.7% shot at beating the Warriors. Now, my model says they have a 28.4% chance of winning.PS I didn’t really build any models.
Precision implies accuracy. Well done.
Spurs take only one game. They don’t look great.
I am curious if people (here) are betting on this game (or other games), what amounts they bet, and what they typically win.Edit: And how they place those bets. Betting site? Bookie? Group of friends?
Spurs will win 2.4 games if everything so far in the current playoffs stays the same. Because math. (Obviously Kawhi’s health is the biggest wildcard here.)#1 predictor of Spurs success that they can control is offensive rebounding; their win probability increases by nearly 20% if they win the offensive glass, and then (long-tail) about 1.5% each for the difference after 3 boards.#1 detractor for the Warriors is foul-trouble for Draymond Green; if he gets three fouls in the first half, they lose 71% of the time to teams that profile similar to the Spurs. Ergo, the Spurs should play big (Aldrige and Gasol both above 30 minutes) and they should run their offense through a pick-and-roll with an emphasis on rolling the bigs to the hoop and/or switching a guard onto Green to get him into foul trouble.Good thing this is what I do for a living!
.Agreeing with you more than you agree with yourself, but the win will be determined by DEFENSE.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…
Playing both bigs probably leads to layup and transition three point barrage from GSW.
Yep, that’s right, but I’m not sure what the alternative is. They don’t have an advantage in the back court, they don’t have an advantage playing uptempo, and they don’t have a shooting or athleticism advantage. The only way for them to make this a series to leverage the two advantages they do have – coaching, and the front court. LMA and Gasol are both much more talented than anything GSW than throw at them; Zaza is a statue, Javale can’t be expected to play more than 10-15 minutes, and while Draymond is a monster, he can’t defend both of them nor will have an answer for when the Spurs run a switch on him.To your point though, I think the Spurs are assuming that they’ll make somewhere between 55-60% of their post-up and pick-and-roll plays, giving them a rough expected point/possession of 1.15 for those sets. Ergo, as long as GSW can shoot above 35% from 3 – the easy runout points notwithstanding – they should be fine. It will take either LMA/Gasol greatly outperforming projections, Curry/Klay greatly underperforming, or some massively exogenous event (injuries, etc.) to make this a real series.
Better alternative is too play small, then whomever Green guards get put in the pick and roll. Still no chance.
The Spurs in six!
.Pop (trade school guy, Air Force Academy) finds ways to win within his available resources. The Spurs will be competitive by changing the style of play.Kawhi has an ankle thing. He returns.If the Spurs have a chance, they have to lock down Stef. Good luck with that. Kawhi could do it if he’s healthy. Knock 10 points off Stef’s production and the Warriors struggle.To keep it interesting, the series goes 7 games and the Spurs eeeeeeeeeek it out.[Heart not really in it, but I like both teams and I think Steve Kerr is a great coach, also.]Jesus heals Parker’s quadriceps tendon rupture and Parker suits up in surprise and miraculous move. Believe in miracles. [All Eva’s fault anyway.]JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…
Spurs aren’t winning anything without a healthy Kawhi Leonard. Add the fact that Tony Parker is out and the Warriors have way more heart than Harden’s Rockets, I gotta take Warriors in 6.
Warriors in 5. They are too strong, and Steve Kerr has established a very similar culture to what Pop has in SA; and they have much better depth, all the way to Iguodala and Livingston.
Average players in a great system will outperform great players in an average system. I believe winning teams can look to a system to make them better. But taking advice I’ve given others: the best results — championships — come from great players in a great system. I’m rooting for the Spurs… but the Warriors’ talent level will be a tough hill to climb.
.Even in the best system, there is one more requirement: MOJOOn any given night, a guy can come out with undiluted MOJO and everything he touches goes in the hoop.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…
Disagree, the team with the best players – not player – getting off the bus almost always win, in hoops.
This is a religious argument, as in, you either believe it or you don’t… and no amount of evidence will change your mind. That said, here’s my point from Dollar Bill:“The point of the game is not how well the individual does, but whether the team wins. That is the heart of the game, the blending of personalities, the mutual sacrifices for group success.” – Bill Bradley
I’m going to go Warriors sweep (in part, b/c no one else has).
Sometimes the obvious is what occurs, as unfun as that is.Prior to injuries, GSW were 35-6 halfway through the season without having yet developed the chemistry that they have shown the past several weeks – 70 win pace.They are the best team in the NBA and it probably really isn’t even close.They are number 1 in offensive efficiency by a fairly wide margin and number 2 in defensive efficiency (barely behind SAS).They have the two best 5 man units of those that have played more than 200 min together by a fair margin.Yes, SAS won season series but one game included GSW sitting big three and other was in October.Kawaii Leonard has the type of injury that just lingers.We are a Draymond Green suspension away from GSW being back-to-back champions who also happened to add the second best player in the world to their team.Unless there are several injuries, the games will be fun to watch, but my guess is it is a very entertaining 4 game series. Five at most.But again, that is why they play the games…
third best. kahwi > KD
I love Kawhi, but KD is unguardable and Kawhi is not.
There’s D in KD, the delta is not big enough to put Kawhi ahead.
As a follow-up, if Lebron James beats this Warrior team while they are at full health then the “is he better than Jordan?” conversation becomes legit.
.When he has half as many rings as Jordan, the convo begins. It is not legit until they can match hardware evenly.Lebron is on anybody’s list. Jordan is at the top of that list.Right now, Lebron couldn’t hold Jordan’s jock.Harsh, but we’re just talking, right?JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…
LeBron has 3. If he wins, he will have 4 titles, made 7 in a row and have made eight total. He beat a 73 win team in the finals last year and this year’s championship would be over a team with 4 of the top 15 players in the league.The first Cavs team LBJ took to the finals second best player was either Boobie Gibson or Larry Hughes.When he left Cleveland, they went from 61 wins to 19.He will have done it longer than MJ did.If Jordan didn’t take two years off and won eight in a row it still would be no contest. But, as he did take the time off, I think the conversation at least starts if Lebron wins this year.Now if we can only get Lebron to make Space Jam 2 then it’ll be a truer apples to apples comparison.
Yes, if.Typo fixed. Thank you 🙂
LOL, probably the first time that I agreed with JLM’s opinion here in AVC….
.Been bringing you along slowly, didn’t want you to capsize. Break out moment. Keep it up.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…
If I had first pick and were choosing knowing all the information we know, I’d take Jordan. If I had first pick and didn’t know any of the information we know, just merely their size/weight, I’d pick Lebron. After watching Jordan play in person many times, he did things on the floor that were quiet, but amazing.
.Did you watch the Super Bowl?What does not appear in your measurements — very well done, indeed, thank you — is HEART and BALLS.I could probably be lured into betting the Spurs win one? For $100? Proceeds to a charity?If the ankle is structurally sound, Kawhi Leonard gets a shot of toradol in the joint a minute before tip off, another at half time.Footballers like their toradol in the butt while ballers like it in the joint.He drinks from a bottle of toradol water during the game. It will be the one with the tape on the outside.After the game, he gets vicodin or oxy.Guy makes $17.64MM this year. If the joint can go, he goes.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…
He will go, but the difference between football and basketball Is you can play with joint injuries in the former but not the latter. Lateral quickness is a prerequisite for elite wings and guards. If you lose even a fraction of it, then it is a tremendous effect on your output.
.That’s why I said “… structurally sound … “.Enough tape and a shot and he’s 95% of healthy.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…
Looks like the even money is between 1 and 2 wins for Spurs.I’ll take warriors in a sweep for $100 for charity.Will connect after Warriors lose one or sweep.Best of luck.
.Well played … for $100, I get “no sweep.”Game on.Pick a vet’s charity.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…
4-0 as predicted by Yahoo Sports: https://twitter.com/antonie…
Cavs in four games. Look at how easily they swept the Raptors.
That was an eye opener and no fun in the Great White North.
Although they did have to play the two home games without Lowry so there’s that.
Raps are stuck in Kobe era.Can’t guard Kyrie or the King, leaving Love & Korver to kill them from behind the line.GM went further than hinting about ‘style of play’ being an issue. Raps are going the Ws route, just like the Cavs.
I just started being a basketball fan this year, so I don’t know about the Ws [yet], but I’ve been watching the Raptors from a personality standpoint [specifically using the system called the Enneagram], and it looks like the team has a really Social-Self-Preservation vibe; whereas a team like the Cavs has a Social-Sexual vibe [“sexual” in this context being related to an enjoyment and comfort level with intensity]. Social energy is really refracted and broad; whereas Sexual energy is more focussed, and can intensify a flow very quickly and easily. When they do this, Socials usually feel uncomfortable and intimidated- at least they do in everyday life- and will go in and stretch out the energy again- if they’re given room to! Anyway, this is probably all sounding like speculation, and I’m still figuring out what I’m seeing, so maybe this is all crazy-talk, but for example, PJ Tucker has got that powerful Cav-like intensity that is needed on the Raptors team, and to some extent, Serge Ibaka. Oh yeah, and we need to stick around for the rebounds. And keep Demar DeRozan <3 <3 <3.
OK that was definitely an essay. Sorry.
I use the Enneagram regularly, but you must have hold of a different flavour than mine – https://www.amazon.ca/Ways-…The whole vibe thing is not part of my E’gram deal.As for the hoops, Demar is actually a problem. He is a dribble to score player (not a dribble to penetrate and then pass to an open 3 point shooter player) and a mathematical liability: he shoots a majority of his shots outside of 4 feet and inside the 3 pt arc.The Ws are the vanguard of the new math of the NBA: analytics shows that the highest percentage shots to take are inside 2 feet and the highest reward shot to take is a 3 (you make 40-50% of your 2s while I make 30-40% of my 3s & I win).The Ws, and now the Cavs, and to some extent the Spurs, follow the Steph Curry Model: Hit the Trey or Get it to the Tin, to Win.Raps are not built that way. Cavs were not 3 years ago, now they have Kyrie, The King, Love and Korver. Its also why trading Wiggins for Love was sound: Wiggs is DeMar more than Steph or Klay Thompson.Don’t get me wrong: Wiggins and Demar are awesome, they are just antiques.PJ is an asset as he can defend the 3 and the pick & roll. Serge struggle on D, but can shoot the 3 (figured out he had to do it, 4 or so years ago). Players who will not be Raps next year: Lowry, Derozan, Ibaka, Patterson, Valenciunus.Young players who need to shoot the 3 something fierce to stay relevant: Poetl, Calaboco, Wright, Powell & Van Vleet (not from everywhere, but reliably form somewhere, say the corner or a fave spot).If Ujiri does not draft a shooter, I’ll buy you an XL double double.
Oh yeah, I thought you were the one I had talked about the Enneagram with last year. I know very little about Goldberg, but from the little I’ve read, he sounds wise. I think he learned the Enneagram way back in the early 80’s before people were talking about the Instincts (which is what I meant by the “vibes”), but Riso and Hudson popularized the concept in the 90’s and now it’s part of most Enneagram trainings.How can DeRozan be a problem? He scores the way he scores based on his personality type (I believe type 9)- if you get him to change his style, won’t that dilute his powers? He can penetrate a whole opposing team in the paint and just dissappear into the sea of people and score a basket. It’s amazing to watch him pick his path. I understand what you’re saying about the numbers and percentages, but not being intimidated by people in the paint is Derozan’s gift- isn’t it up to the others to work on their 3’s? Like Carroll?Poetl and Patterson aren’t my favorite- they can go. Wright is showing promise; Powell and Joseph are both Sixes who perform well under pressure. Valenciunus was scoring quite a bit near the end of the season. I think Lowry is good for the team. We just need more 8’s on the team who aren’t afraid of fighting for rebounds.When do drafts happen?
DeMar is a problem because he will keep you playing a style of play that will never win the title but he is so good that you will make the playoffs, only to lose every year.Patterson does nothing well enough to be on the team.Carroll had one great playoff run and has been a bust.JV cannot defend mobile bigs, which is the new requirement for bigs.Poetl is mobile for his size: needed to defend away from basket. If he can shoot 3’s, he’s awesome.Powell needs to shoot 3’s and he’s awesome.Most of these guys are real pros. Its the Hoops version of the Blind Side – their physical tools are no longer valuable. Check out how many of these players are thin bigs w super long arms & shooting skills OR crazy fast guards: http://nbadraft.theringer.comDraft is in late June.
K well I’m comforted to see Boston getting beat just as badly as we did. Looking forward to the drafts. My bet is we hold on to DeRozan and Lowry.
Kyle’s headed to the 6ers. Lots of god young talent, high draft pick this year, tons of cap space to pay him and its his hometown.He’s not a good enough passer / spot up 3 shooter (and he’s short – Curry is 6’3″, KL is barely 6′ w short arms to boot).FWIW. We have one of the best GMs in the Association though and that really matters.
If the Warriors can stay healthy, I believe they rise above and take the Spurs in 5 games…