NYC Is Dead, Long Live NYC
There is a lot of negativity around NYC right now. Bloggers writing sensational headlines. That sort of thing. It makes me want to go out and buy a ton of NYC stock right now.
It is certainly the case that many talented people are leaving NYC right now. It is also the case that the City is suffering from rising crime, filth, etc. And the City is in deep financial trouble and cutting costs everywhere it can. Commercial real estate is facing a huge crisis and residential real estate might not be far behind. Real estate tax revenues (which provide much of NYC’s income) will decline creating an even more difficult fiscal situation for NYC. The short term outlook for NYC is bleak.
When companies go through this situation and their stock prices get clobbered, you have to ask yourself if the company is going to go out of business or not. If the answer is no, then the question becomes what price is the right entry price.
NYC is not going out of business. It will need a turnaround. It will need new leadership, which it will get. The pandemic will end. Restaurants, museums, broadway, nightclubs, etc, etc, etc will re-open.
It won’t be the same NYC that existed pre-pandemic. But that is a good thing. NYC has sucked for the last decade or more.
Many people who can will leave forever. Rents will be lower (maybe a lot lower). Artists will be able to live in NYC again.
We have the opportunity to reimagine what NYC is. We can reimagine transportation, schools, policing, housing, construction. We can create an environmentally sustainable NYC. We can create an affordable NYC. We can create a better NYC.
But the first thing that has to happen is we need all the people who are afraid of all of this change to leave so those who are left can come together and create this better NYC. And thankfully that is happening.