Can Amazon Run The Table On Cloud Services?

I was reading my partner Albert's post on cloud services yesterday. Albert explains that he'd like to see all startups building on top of the cloud.

All of this is great news for startups because it is further driving
down the cost of hosting.  At this point I am encouraging everyone who
is starting up to write for the cloud from day one.  In fact, I think
it is time to be somewhat suspect of a technical team that is not doing

But what really got my attention was a comment to Albert's post:

I think Amazon is so amazing that there is no point in bothering with the other guys unless the application actually needs geographic redundancy. I would say that's when an hour of downtime directly costs more than $5k (i.e. >$20MM annual revenue through the site). Aside from Google itself, I can't think of a situation where geographic redundancy didn't introduce application-level downtime in exchange for the datacenter-level uptime.

Originally posted as a comment by NYIndependent on Continuations using Disqus.

Is it possible that AMZN will come to dominate cloud services in the same way that Google has come to dominate search (or Amazon has come to dominate online retailing)?

Not only are cloud services commoditizing the dedicated hosting industry, but its not even clear yet that other cloud services are making much headway in competing against AWS (Amazon Web Services). I know that all of you are much smarter about this stuff than me, so I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts in the comments.

Disclosure: I am long Amazon and thinking about getting longer.

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