Waiting For The Fill

Last night, we were in a cab heading to an event and the Gotham Gal said, "the market dropped around 400 each of the last two days, what’s up with that?". I thought of Bliss McCrum, the guy who first taught me about the markets, and said "more sellers than buyers I guess".

The truth is I’ve tuned the markets out lately. It’s not that they don’t matter, they matter a lot, but the indexes don’t tell the whole story of what’s going on. As Howard pointed out recently:

I like a day like today because indexes did much worse than stocks.

I am not sure what market gurus make of days when indexes do worse than stocks, but that’s what I feel like is going on in my world. I’ve been trying to bottom fish for weeks and have limit/good till filled orders in for:

$AMZN at $40
$GOOG at $320
$AAPL at $90

These are three companies I have great confidence in. I love where they are with their businesses, I think they’ll come through the downturn better than most, and all three have strong cash flows with even stronger balance sheets. In short, the kinds of companies you want to own in this market, if you want to own anything.

I’ve had these limit orders in for several weeks and I’ve not had one fill yet. It could happen this morning with $GOOG, but I’ve thought that on several days in the past couple weeks and it has not happened. There’s support for these stocks coming from somewhere. Or maybe there just isn’t that much supply. Maybe the selling in these stocks has come and gone. Who knows, but I am just saying that the carnage we are witnessing elsewhere in the market has not been happening in the titans of web/tech in recent weeks.

I’ve also been reading less gloomy prognostications recently. A friend of mine, someone who has been trading professionally 24/5 for around 20 years and a perennial bear, said this to me in an email yesterday:

For the first time I can remember I am less bearish then the consensus. I expect one stimulus package to be passed this year or the day after the inauguration and then another mid year. That stimulus along with all the additional liquidity the Fed is dumping into the system should result in overall growth to be positive for 2009! National housing prices should bottom (stop going down) in the 2nd quarter after another 8-10% drop. Equities should sell off another 15-25% and then form a long term bottom.

Look at that chart of the Nasdaq that I posted at the top of this post (click here for a bigger one). I am not a technician but that sure look likes a bottom trying to form to me.

But in any case, I am with my friend. I’m a lot less bearish on the stock market than many of the blogs I’m reading. I’ve got my orders in and am waiting for the fill. I hope it comes.

Reblog this post [with Zemanta]