A Big Day For The Big Apple and Tech's Apple
This blog, which will be 10 years old in two weeks, was initially called “AVC: Musings of a A VC in NYC”. I thought I might like to think out loud when I named it that. Turns out I do.
So I am going to muse out loud about two important things that will happen today.
First, I am going to vote in the NYC Democrat Mayoral Primary this morning. I plan to vote for Chris Quinn who The Gotham Gal and I have known for around ten years. Chris is a great person and I think that among the Democrats, she will do the best job maintaining the policies and attitude that the Bloomberg administration brought to City Hall. Sadly, I don’t think Chris ran a great campaign and I think that Bill de Blasio did. There is a chance that de Blasio will win enough votes today that he can avoid a runoff. He did not and will not win mine.
Even if Chris wins, I do not plan to vote for her in the General Election. I prefer both Joe Lhota and Jack Hidary to every Democrat candidate for Mayor. I guess that begs the question why am I a Democrat. This is not a long enough post for me to address that. But I can and maybe should at some point.
If you live in NYC and are registered to vote, please make the time to do that today. There is nothing more important in our democracy than our right (and obligation) to vote. Please exercise it.
Second, Tim Cook will take the stage today to announce some new Apple products. Rumor has it he will announce a cheap iPhone (the 5C) and an upgrade to the iPhone 5 (the 5S). The more interesting of these two new phones to me is the 5C. I think Apple needs a cheap phone to compete with Android in the prepaid market which is very important outside the US. And, as I’ve said here before, we need a competitive mobile OS market to keep everyone honest. Google is looking more and more ominous to me and I want to see Apple keep the pressure on them. I hope it goes well for Tim and Apple today.
So it’s a big day for the Big Apple and Tech’s Apple. Days like today mean a lot. I will be paying attention to both as the day develops.
UPDATE: The folks at Sketchfab sent me this 3D rendering of the new iPhone 5C. So here it is in all its glory
I have the election more that Apple on my mind.Need to say that I’m approaching this with resolution, not that excited and as you, thinking about who can continue Bloomberg’s work rather than who has a vision for a better city.If we can get that at least, its a win.
Democrat? Republican? What does that even mean anymore? The two party system reached its used by date in the early 70s — exactly the same for the US as it is in the UK and AU.We had federal election last weekend. A very large part of the electorate seems to have voted one way in the house and another way in the senate. I know I did. I want the bastards to have to negotiate.Every. Single. Bill.Edit: No typo, I parsed it incorrectly.
.There is much wisdom in the design of bi-cameral legislative bodies which by there very nature default toward having to cooperate in order to pass “good” legislation. Note GOOD legislation.The notion that a single political party can embrace all of “right” views for a time is silly.It is one’s beliefs that should guide their hand in the voting booth.JLM.
I totally agree with you on the wisdom of the balance, and all for producing GOOD legislation. Unfortunately, these days, what’s happening instead is that CONSENSUS legislation is produced, and this is always MEDIOCRE and less effective. Not pointing the finger at anyone in particular. Just saying it is happening. When you try to please everybody, you end-up pleasing nobody.
.It goes without saying that some of the worst legislation in the history of the US has come from a single party’s control of the House, Senate and WH.Some of the best legislation has come from a divided Congress and WH. The big difference is the WH.I continue to laugh when the Democrats take credit for civil rights legislation as it was the Republicans who mustered the votes and the Southern Democrat segregationists who opposed it.It took a Texan, LBJ, to make it happen.We may not need any more laws, we may just need to enforce the ones we have now.The current Administration is almost unique in the history of the US for making wide spread determinations and orders to NOT enforce existing law — immigration, marijuana, gun control etc.JLM.
Yeah it’s kinda funny when you compare Obama’s “LBJ” to the real LBJ isn’t it?
. I live in Austin, not far from Johnson City a hard scrabble Hill Country town.I like to stop there and look and see if I can find from whence the greatest civil rights legislation in the history of the US came.I cannot find a single bit of evidence.Some say it was all Lady Bird, who really knows?What LBJ did — seemingly contrary to his own and his party’s political interests — will continue to be one of the great mysteries of the Presidency.He was a Son of a Bitch but he was The Man when it came to changing America.On Earth as it is in Texas!JLM.
well that isn’t happening with either party now
bi-cameralIsn’t that the camera rumoured to be in the new iPhone ?
the two party system doesn’t mean anything. it’s a framework for people who don’t want to do anything too radical. in other words, a framework for people who want to complain without taking any meaningful steps towards change.
radical isn’t always good. That’s why the House has to go through the Senate. The boiling tea cup meets the simmering saucer.A free, transparent marketplace of ideas is good.
Isn’t it more about the incumbent-big-money buying off control over the “the manufacture of consent” ?Public Perception Management take big money. Sure maybe it is a bit cheaper and simpler if you only have to buy off two parties.Don’t get me wrong I not against the “the manufacture of consent” every cohesive social system requires serious levels of collective consent to function.The real problem is who gets to be in charge of the manufacturing process.Isn’t getting the money out really the more pivotal problem ?
sure, i tend to think income inequality is the root of all problems (not an endorsement for taxes or communism)
Not so much income equality as motivation, effort and intelligence inequality. (Not to leave out of course birth status but the other things do count as well.)
no, again, when you understand economics, you’ll understand where i’m coming from.
Inequality period. We live in a society that is inherently biased. While that bias can be overcome, and as Americans we like to believe that overcoming it is easy to do, it’s a way harder task than we like think. As a result lots of people fail at it furthering the biased society while we worship those who succeed as examples that everyone, rather than anyone, can overcome society’s bias.You want to fix society, fix the natural bias.
credit gerrymandering, which each party is expert at.
There is no perfect system, obv.If you watch CDN politics, we have minority governments (at the moment) in several jurisdictions (federally, province of Ontario). Not a lot gets done, even by government standards.The negotiating turns into odds making on election calling fallout.The one thing I will trumpet is the lack of official party politics in civic elections. Hard to see how party politics has helped Detroit (and likely Chicago, Washington, etc.) cope with their situations.NYC is an anomaly, with Giuliani & Bloomberg creating an unparalleled run of effective leadership.I like Lhota, from what little I have seen of the candidates. Saying No is a often what the public respects in a pol and I think that distinction could matter for him, in the long run.Quinn actually suffers from being associated with Bloomberg & his success – not being her own public person means she’s not Bloomberg but not anyone else either.de Blasio is a panderer / leverager. Your kids should not be in your ads, for your kids sake.
We just booted a minority government. They were able to get a lot done. They lost the election because they lacked discipline. The opposition barely had to campaign.
Two Party Systemhttp://www.youtube.com/watc…
I like the parsing you did. +1
Agree with your comments on Apple and Google, and the mobile OS market, etc.I’m enjoying watching the NYC mayoral race and hopeful that the people of New York will have the courage and foresight to elect the right leader. Having watched the videos you linked (last week, and others) and talked with friends in NY who are passionate about this race, I think I’d like to see Joe Lhota as your next Mayor. He seems to be focussed on the right areas for NY at this time.
why is Bloomberg’s reign over?cheap is smart, but not always good for the environment and mother earth
I don’t think it’ll be a “disposable” price tag. It is Apple, after all. Apple needs to fill the price/market void at (a little bit) lower price point to maintain a competitive position.
just ‘a little bit’ lower?apple must find the idea of selling cheaper a hard one to swallow.
Term limits (re Bloomberg done)
Term limits should be enacted in modern society, along with an extremely small limited bureaucracy to carry out day to day missions of civil government.
“Term limits should be enacted in modern society” – like, I can only be a Dad twice…and that’s it!
So many of the candidates in this race leave me so uninspired that i fear that NYC will suffer from lack of boldness in the next four years
In California it is perennially even worse. Sadly, it’s the current state of politics nationwide (mostly). Motivations to achieve office are too often misplaced, or those motivations change after the first few months of holding nearly any position. Making it worse, in California we have “leaders” simply making really stupid decisions in an effort to protect those misguided (or corrupt) motives.
Speaking of apples, 3 apples that changed the world: Adam’s, Isaac’s, and Steve’s.
steve’s possessive s is missing. why’s that then?
someone bit it off
Who’s apple is the Big Apple? That would be a fourth.
And the other Apple in between Isaac and Steve.
Bloomberg is in there figuratively, because he had 3 terms at the Big Apple…He crunched on that last apple on his way out to leave his mark.
I think Peter Minuit left his mark before Bloomberg.
Nice trade. Did he cover yet?
sell his position out….take profits (#sortofmakingajokethatdidn’twork)
OK, thought it might be that, but wasn’t sure since it likely didn’t take long to get to ROI positive on the equivalent of $24 (or $1,000 USD in 2006) worth of goods.
none, and unfortunately i don’t know of any apple orchards in nyc limits
Hahaha. You tryin’ to be saucy?(See what I did there?)
Congrats Fred. It’s definitely been a quite a journey. 10 years of daily non stop writing definitely takes some dedication. Something for us to learn from you. I have been an active reader of your blogs since 2010 and have found your take really insightful. I think the breadth of topics is amazing. I look forward to reading your blogs for a few more decades.iPhone 5C would still be a high end phone in emerging markets. $499 without subsidy would be arnd Rs 32000 or 3053 Yuan which has been thudded by iPhone look alikes by Xiomi, Huawei, Lenovo, Micromax etc. It would be interesting to watch how it the new iPhone 5C will translate into sales in emerging markets where price takes precedence over brand. But partnership with Chinese mobile could boost iPhone sales to some extent.
Wow. I am pleased to hear you will support Chris today, as will I, but surprised that you will not support her if she is in the General Election. The reason I have and continue to support her is that she has proven to be a strong manager (it is very difficult to be the Speaker – she has done the job very well), she understands all sides of the issues better than any other candidate, and she always has great staff (in the district office and at City Hall). It isn’t a matter of Democrat or Republican here in NYC (where registered Dems outnumber GOP voters 7-1, but we’ve had a Republican mayor for 20 years), the question is who can do the job best and I think she would be more effective than the other Democratic candidates or a throwback to the Giuliani administration. It will be very interesting if she can get into the runoff…anything can happen in a runoff…
So many apps in iOS are available from 3rd parties, that it’s smart for Apple to sell a lower priced iPhone….to keep their hardware/platform in-market.
I meant “similar apps”, or to some “better and similar apps”
Regarding cheap iPhone: The general consensus among Apple bloggers (gruber etc…) is that the 5C is not going to be a cheap phone or a low cost phone but a lower cost phone. The consensus on price of 5C is between $400-$500 which is not cheap by any standards but still more affordable.What is do you think the price should be for 5C?If there is nothing new other than the stuff that’s already leaked (colors and fingerprint scanner) I think this is going to be a dull event.Finally, the consensus is that there will not be a bigger iPhone this year which I think is a mistake.We’ll see.
yeah i don’t see apple reducing the quality of materials much as they need to maintain brandingand they aren’t going to reduce their profit margins much either to compensatedemand is still so high, a phone that is only slightly cheaper may do the trick for them
maybe for places like India and Africa it will be beneficial to have a less expensive phone.
According to Apple bloggers, China is the main target for 5C.
Makes sense. But also makes sense for me to dream of more smart phone penetration here in Africa too. Apple or otherwise.
Yup. I’m betting $399.
My judgement is clouded from the fact that I am planning to buy one. I root for a $350ish price tag but I know that it is not likely. Anything more than 450, I am not buying. I’d rather wait to see an iPhone with a larger screen size.
I’m betting mid $400s. Apple likes to pull buyers up to midrange pricing bands.
And wow. $550. Wish they had gone after the midmarket more aggressively.
Me too. This shows they aren’t interested in the mid market, which is unfortunate. I’m a little worried.
There is some interesting analysis going around that the right price point for Apple in China is $480. I was surprised it was that high until I read the explanation. Apple is a luxury brand there, one people who can’t afford Apple products view with envy, therefore a low price point would kill its positioning and make the product less desirable. If I remember the article stated 15-20% market gains at that price.
when i was in china a couple times for work I asked my chinese coworkers about more expensive phones like samsung galaxy and iphone …almost universally they wanted the better and more expensive phones and said they would save and eventually buy them. Also – they were quite aware of the crappy quality of cheap-ass noname android devices.
Same goes for Thailand. They want high quality, and a bit of cache’. Mobile phone models are a status symbol in Asia (like they are for some Americans as well ;).
Sub $250 to work in prepaid markets
From what I read on the Internet, sub $250 seems extremely unlikely. So I guess they are not targeting prepaid markets.
As it turns out… 5C is $549 without a contract. So Apple basically did not change their strategy. They just optimized their current strategy.
see my post this morning. i am very disappointed
I did. For selfish reasons I am disappointed too because I was in the market for a new phone and would rather shell out less money. :-).But ultimately, Apple chose to serve the higher end of the market. As Ben Thompson puts it very well here ( http://stratechery.com/2013…they obviously think an iPhone (and everything that comes with it) is worth at least $549 and anyone who doesn’t think so should buy another phone.I also believe they think they still can milk it for at least 1 more year without lowering prices prematurely. Who can blame them? 🙂
I guess my question is, what is the point i it isn’t actually low cost – android will still eat that market. Midpoint price just is the place of pointlessness
.Folks will be tempted to rise to the top water bait of the NYC Mayoral race and Apple but the big story is AVC and its 10 years of existence and success.Congratulations to a guy and team which has carved out a unique business strategy — the right sized and focused VC firm — and who has generously opened up the Ark of the Covenant as it relates to the “secrets” of VC-dom.Many more years and more success. More musings and more writings and more sharing. You may want to consider sticking with this line of work as it appears you are well suited for it.Congratulations.Well played.JLM.
Nicely said. I echo those sentiments as well.(But who runs NYC is way more important to me than whatever Apple ever does.)
.Damn, Arnold, I thought YOU actually ran the joint? No?JLM.
New York would be an even better place if Arnold ran the joint. And he and I don’t even agree much on politics.It’s just basic competency and I share Fred’s assessment of the likely winner. One should have a basic understanding of how an economy works before you get to run one.
nah, he just orders the best drinks at the bar.
Agree with Fred being a hugely valuable daily blogging force in all our lives. Nicely put @JLM:disqus @kidmercury:disqus and @awaldstein:disqusArnold, living in South Africa the Apple news is way more exciting to me.I am extremely excited to see if Apple is going to put NFC in its phone. With the traction that Bluetooth LE is getting I wonder if the plug will be pulled altogether on NFC. If Apple does not put NFC in these two models and decides to go with Bluetooth LE for payments then we will witness the death of NFC. I know this does not sound exciting to a lot of people but for many reasons on my side I am very very interested in what the outcome will be.Thanks again Fred!
I love that this community constantly pushes me beyond the myopic parameters of my own world.Thanks–I guess I look at the world through the lenses of the segments I work in which is mostly here, the UK and Italy.Thanks for the nudge!
Thanks for listening, Africa is breaking into the tech world fast and furiously.
Arnold, if the subway connected to L, you could come to Chicago!
Funny–actually getting to the L is drag from where I live downtown westside.What i do is grab a CitiBike, bike to the East side and pick it up.Love this town…touched on these issues in this post a bit. http://awe.sm/t3QbU
i think he meant the chicago L – which would be great for business if you could pull it off, give the airlines a run for their money
From a distance seeing a lot of rumblings coming from your town on the entrepreneurial front. Chicago is a strong private equity town…what do you see happening from the standpoint of venture and the startup ecosystem there?
@donnawhite:disqus , you are correct, it is a big PE town. The entire midwest is. I once had a dude from Nebraska ask me for a cash flow analysis and NPV of a startup company!But, it’s changing.The ecosystem has developed a lot since I co-founded HydeParkAngels.com in April of 2007.Three nice companies were founded at the same time, Braintree, GrubHub and Groupon. It’s possible to get series A and Seed investment here. We have a lot of startup activity in the River North and West Loop area of town.We helped set up newirishangels.com. Cornerstoneangels.com is active. I helped westsuburbanangels.com get going. NU has a passive group, Wildcat Angels. There are angels doing seed investments. ChicagoVentures is a $40M fund, Origin Ventures is here.The knock against Chicago was that the stakes for failure were higher here than other places. First, it was a black mark–>that’s slowly changing. Second, you couldn’t get a job after a failure—>no longer true. You can catch on with a startup or go work for a tech firm like CMEGroup.com. The HFT firms will hire techies too.The HFT firms also spin out techies looking to do other things. Since I traded, I get acquainted with a lot of them.We have great research univ’s here as well. The internet wasn’t just built by Stanford, Cal and MIT. The University of Illinois was integral. A lot of those engineers are finding a home in Chicago, along with Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan, Northwestern and UChicago.There are good entrepreneurial programs at Illinois, DePaul, UChicago, Wisconsin and NU.There are plenty of Fortune 500 companies for exit. There are plenty of family offices and PE firms to exit to.All that being said, there is room for a lot of improvement here. We need more exits, and then for the entrepreneurs to stay and mentor, start or fund new companies.We need more funding. It’s hard to do B rounds of investment here. It’s as difficult to do A as anywhere else. VCs here get interested in C and B rounds.Deal flow is not a problem. There is more deal flow here than you can shake a stick at.I am trying to raise a fund here now, westloopventures.com and it’s tough. But when was it ever easy raising capital?
Informative comment, Jeff. Thanks. For some reason recently ended up on one of the websites you are associated with. Interesting happenings you are involved with. Good luck with your fund.
you never know. There are massive opportunities in the B2B space, medical, and financial services in the midwest.
.Huge. Well played.JLM.
that would be a dream come true
my prediction: – apple won’t put in NFC (but I’ll buy you a beer someday if they do).- NFC will not die – passive rfid tags are super cheap – cheaper than BLE radios by at least 2 orders of magnitude. that said NFC – not for commerce – may be true, but it is probably still useful for a lot of other things.A side project I’m working on – a kids toy called Proxy People uses NFC *and* BLE
if there was a blog star hall of fame, fred would be first ballot, unanimous.
lol you know i was thinking the same thing as i was typing it!
ha…ha… he was one of the earlier bouncers in this bar…had a great time getting tipped …. accepted all currencies :-).
Well put @JLM ,Well played indeed
There’s just something about getting to watch someone at the top of their game. It’s a joy.
And with more possibilities ahead. ‘Tis inspiring!
+ 1. Fred’s blog literally changed my career trajectory completely. In 2006, I was based in Chicago, working in the for-profit education industry, not loving my job or being away from my native Northeast. Reading “AVC” taught me about the amazing community and opportunities available in the NYC technology industry. I moved to NYC for the first time in my life in 2007 and joined one of Fred’s portfolio companies, TargetSpot, in a BD role. I loved my 2 years there and took the skills I’d learned to Google, where I applied them in a big company environment before moving back into the startup community at Braintree / Venmo. Fred’s writing and the community that developed around it as well as Fred’s excellent investments created an environment that was and still is ripe for developing careers, both old and new. So thank you Fred and the AVC community 🙂
oh same. Definitely shaped me as a person.
And it’s been fun watching it happen, Shana!(AVC is certainly part of my reinvention process.)
for you maybe…we’ll see about what is next 😉
You have a lot of nexts ahead of you, Shana.
That’s a great story and I am certain that there are others who would share something similar. Fred and AVC are a transformative force.I haven’t quite made the transition that you have due to my husband’s work and our ties to the West coast but I have been inspired to seriously explore opportunities to become bicoastal.And now I have a son studying computer science in New York and AVC is a huge part of that!
I didn’t know your son was here studying computer science! You should introduce us! I would love to pitch in, help out, etc.
Kevin — that’s fantastic, thank you! I’ve mentioned you to my son as a must-meet and was planning to ask at some point if I could make an intro. I will reach out at some point to follow up.
Awesome story Dudas! Never knew that this is how you got into NY Tech. My story is pretty similar, was sitting in a cubicle at a regulatory agency working on cases against banks when I started reading AVC. The futility of my job as a regulator was making me lose my mind. I actually think this One on One with Nick Bilton is how I found out about some guy named Fred Wilson: http://bits.blogs.nytimes.c…. Yes, it was 2010 but better late than never. Long story short, I sent a link to AVC to my eventual co-founder, we both quit our jobs and have been working on our startup ever since. I haven’t looked back and am happy to say that this blog actually changed my life. Am pretty sure I won’t be working at a major institution for the next decade or so…
wow. that’s a great story and a great compliment.
.Great story. The Invisible Hand still guides those who are willing to listen and follow.Well played and much success.JLM.
Thanks Jeff. Its been a great decade and you are right about doing things differently. It worked very well for me and my partners.
+1000000. The Mayor of AVC is such a more interesting topic!
Maybe a merger? NYC & AVC
You never know what is suited for you … until you take a plunge …and that my dear friend ….is called …. discovery.
Mayors come and go, corporate tech giants wax and wane, but AVC only gets better with age. 10 years old, it’s just a kid
apple’s cheap phone is a foolish move, against the company’s DNA. i’m surprised at what has transpired so quickly post-Jobs, i thought they had a bunch of innovative stuff in the pipeline all set to go prior to jobs’ crossing over. the more they try to stretch iOS across a number of devices the more they lose all the advantages iOS allegedly offered. of course they need to do this because of how technology is evolving, but they should have done it in a different way rather than trying to stretch iOS.if you think google is intimidating wait until amazon kicks into high gear. it will be absurd how dominant they are. but pure genius, the entrepreneur in me has to give props.it all ends well, once companies start focusing on niches and customers rather than trying to create scalable apps. trying to create scalable apps, rather than full-fledged ecosystems for a specific customer niche, is another way of saying you want to compete with google and amazon at what they do best. good luck with that.
Leave the iSlaves alone!! :)Most of them will stop working for 2 hours today during the livestream. They’ll have their earplugs on, and pretend they’re coding or something.
@kidmercury:disqus I live in Africa, a continent of 1 billion people. I truly hope that there is a cheaper, more affordable, model and more in the future that people here can afford. The one strategy Apple has for people who cant afford a brand new iPhone is to buy older models. If there is a cheaper new model then it will be a totally different strategy to hand me downs. I want to see 1 billion Apple phones bloom in Africa.
you just gave the argument for android, and why i’m such an android fanboy (i.e. phandroid). embrace android, my friend! states, china, africa…….national boundaries are of little significance. android is global.
I love all things tech. Obsessed with the company behind Android.I am saying that Apple will have massive impacting penetration in Africa if it has a cheaper phone.
.Yes, I agree more with you than you agree with yourself as it relates to Google and Amazon. They are killers.JLM.
Your betting on the DNA model ?
Really want to read the ‘Why I’m a Democrat’ post!
short answer: because there are only two realistic options and the other one sucks more
If independents could vote in primary elections, we’d see a lot more registered independents. Not much to like about either party right now.
Since my vote doesn’t count, I’m voting for a 4th term to Bloomberg.I liked these quotes from this article today, New York’s Business Community Waxes Sentimental for Its Departing Billionaire.”He’s made the city much more user friendly.””The proof is in the proof.”http://www.entrepreneur.com…
the bloomberg fanboys always come out here in fredland. i wonder how many of you would manage your personal finances the way he managed the finances of nyc. http://frontpagemag.com/201…
Easy to lob bombs. There are always ugly cracks in politics and big business management.As a New Yorker, the city today after Bloomberg is unquestionably better in just about every way that touches life here.It ain’t perfect. Life ain’t but New York with what 8 million residents and countless commuters is a both a remarkable world’s stage and amazingly livable.Beat me up if you must. I love this town and the Bloomberg era has been a huge boon to us.
when a municipality increases debt, it is just like when an individual increases debt. i could go out and max my credit cards and live a great life for a bit. but then the bill comes due.nyc has had its fun. the bill is coming due soon. of course, the way it works with governments is that those who do the spending don’t do the paying. the bill belongs to the future. but hey, that’s their problem, right?
You are the expert at inflammatory debate kid.I learn from your smarts and point of view often for certain. But I learned long time ago to walk away from those that just want to fight. On the street and on the blogs.Walking away now….
lol well you know the grand secret of beefing is to use the truth as your weapon. there is no possible response to it…..
Perfect response and ending to this string!I’m speechless and satisfied to move on.
He’s the best mayor NYC ever had (that I remember), and he knows it. Did you read the NY Magazine interview from the week-end. It was awesome.
Yup…with guts to make huge stuff happen.This is a tough, complicated place. Getting anything done including opening a pop up store is a nightmare. The changes have been significant and directionally all for the better.
“Getting anything done including opening a pop up store is a nightmare.”True I’m sure (I haven’t tried). But you can also look at that as a barrier to entry for any competition as well.
That’s true but honestly anything you do in NYC the biggest issue is that if the segment gets any traction, big (no huge) dollars flow in and its a bitch to compete with tons of funding.You can. I do in some projects but capital is a huge huge advantage.
Guiliani inherited a much worse mess. Plus, he had 9/11.
the after effect of 9/11 was dealt with by the Bloomberg administration. Overall though the city was in worse shape when Rudy took over. He made safety the top priority – which allowed Bloomberg to advance the city. They both played to their strengths.
Bloomberg was a mayor for Manhattan and Bill de Blasio is a mayor for the boroughs. Not saying that one is better than the other but this is undoubtedly true. It is always interesting to hear the prospectives from family & friends who live in the boroughs. I don’t know what is best for New York but I do like to remind myself that Bloomberg is a different person to many outside of Manhattan.
Hmm…Don’t know honestly but when I look at what is going on in Long Island City (we have a business there), all over Brooklyn, in parts of the Bronx, my first impression is that you may be right but it is not evident and not what I hear from my many friends in Brooklyn especially with businesses there.
Long Island City is growing nicely no doubt, it has come a long way since I have been a kid. Brooklyn has over 2.5MM people living there but it gets overshadowed by a couple of small neighborhoods that make up a small percentage of the population like Park Slope, Cobble Hill, Williamsburg, and Brooklyn heights. When you speak to people who live in Bensonhurst, Flatbush, Dyker Heights the opinions are different. Same goes with a lot of Staten Island and neighborhoods in the Bronx outside of Riverdale.I like Bloomberg but I don’t see an argument that he is a mayor for citizens of Manhattan.
Hey you might be right.Although born in the West Bronx I’m a Manhattan resident for sure and that is my perspective.
Bronx native! Love it, my moms side is from Morris Park and up until two years ago still visited frequently.
My mom’s family like many immigrant families moved from LES to the South Bronx to raise their families, then to the West side projects after a bit.Need to take my mom back there. Been a very very long time since she visited her old hood.
Go to Crown Heights and Bed Stuy and Bushwick and see what’s going on there. Soon Brownsville will be getting cleaned up. Its amazing
hooray for pricing out the poor!
these neighborhoods were where the wealthy and upper middle class lived in the 40s and 50s. then when those folks fled the city in the 60s and 70s, they were taken over by the working poor. i see it as an ebb and flow. what goes around, comes around.
if it’s all cyclical, then bloomberg doesn’t get credit, the cycle does. but there are places that are capable of creating safe, quality environments without making it unaffordable. the nyc area is unfortunately not one of them.
The boroughs I visit the most, Queens and Brooklyn, are vastly improved in his 12 years. It is mind blowing what has happened to them under his watch
yes, but queens has a huge way to go (I live there, I can say that)
That is fair, I guess what I am speaking about is the improvement of native new yorkers lifestyle and the middle class. The question becomes what does gentrification do for the natives of a neighborhood? If gentrification creates businesses that employ people from the neighborhood and better the education system while allowing residents to stay that is a good thing. But that is not what happens with gentrification, it just pushed people out of a neighborhood (into a worse one usually) and people with money move in. IMO NYC becomes more of a transit city every single day.
Another thing that naysayers don’t realize is the increased visibility of Manhattan results in an economic benefit that is good for the entire region. All that money flooding into Manhattan (say all the foreigners buying and more importantly improving real estate) results in jobs for people living in the boroughs and metro area.
largely a function of real estate prices.
Crime dropped in the Bronx and Brooklyn more than anywhere else. Job growth AND new business growth was higher in ever borough outside of Manhattan than in it. So explain how he was the mayor of Manhattan only????? That’s just rhetoric.
Can we go out for a Big Gulp and talk it over? : )
I agree with Arnold for the most part but if I’d been drinking a Big Gulp just now, if have spewed it everywhere laughing.
Looks that way also from outside the region as well. If it was that way it is today when I graduated college that’s where I would have gone. But it wasn’t that way.The kid apparently doesn’t remember the NY of past years before Giuliani. And doesn’t realize that you have to accept some negative in order to get the positives. (good luck with marriage to anyone who doesn’t understand that concept.)
So well said.So true!
no, i understand all of that. i also understand economics, which drives basically every comment i make, especially political ones. when you understand economics, you’ll understand how bloomberg is just stealing from the future, like basically every other politician.
Hmm. Is that article credible? The link it refers to shows he has been reducing the budget deficit on a year to year basis.My main fascination with Bloomberg is because I wished Toronto had a mayor like him. He’s a role model of a business oriented mayor and a strong chief executive. Other mayors play politics more than they run their city.
reducing the budget deficit is different than reducing total outstanding debt. here’s something i found via a quick search, it only shows up to 2011, but you may appreciate the source more: http://www.cbcny.org/cbc-bl…
It seems to me that mayors come in two flavours.Don’t-be mayorsandDo-be mayorsWhy complain went you have a Do-be mayor ?
He did a great job with the finances of the city. Anyone can take pot shots. The man did a damn fine job and I am very thankful for it
the numbers speak for themselves, and the consequences will be paid for by the future.
Exactly. And hard to imagine next mayor being able to do the same.
i drop numbers, the bloomberg fanboys drop opinions.
as a counter point – I’d be mortified if our variou levels of government managed their finances like most people manage their personal finances 🙂
the government is worse than most people. most of us are constrained by our available credit and income, and do not have the strength or immorality to engage in armed theft.
here is a great PDF on the financial mess bloomberg has created: http://www.cbcny.org/sites/…sorry for the facts, please carry on with the bloomberg worship…..
debt was taken out to pay for the billions and billions of infrastructure that was deferred for decades when the city was falling apart.
Could the infrastructure have been paid for in other ways? Perhaps instead of huge increases in the police force, union pensions? Nyc, already one of the most taxed places on earth, is going to need to increase taxes again to service the debt and pay the unions.
how else would you pay for it??? the police force shrank under Bloomberg…and the pension costs are from governments long ago… the same type of ppl like de Blasio now!! And de Blasio wants to “raise taxes on the rich”… Bloombergs mantra was to foster private sector development to pay for those bonds…. which had been working.
bloomberg negotiated many union contracts and gave them too much each time. in spite of huge growth in tax revenue thanks to wall street stealing more from main street bloomberg still increased spending more than the inflation rate and had to significantly increase the city’s debt, as most politicians do.
ahhh yes – he gave them raises when he could… then when he let them know the party was over because of the recession they cry foul. you can’t have it both ways. It’s called budgeting.Again – much of the debt is due to neglected infrastructure that needed to be improved.
the statistics disagree with what you are saying. the biggest increases in expenditures went for all the union perks, namely pensions and healthcare. now, servicing all that debt will be a big part of the budget as well.i’m not saying his job is easy. i’m saying he did the same thing practically every politician does: increase spending faster than tax hikes, increase debt levels in doing so, and then leave office for someone else to clean up the mess.
A friend (David Shnaider) introduced me to this diner (oops, blog) four years ago. I get AVC via RSS, and every once in a while I drop by for coffee (oops, comments).As for Apple, they can’t build software. Does anyone know what iTunes Match does?
I thought you might mention Reshma Saujani, the founder of Girls Who Code, who’s running for Public Advocate.
Most guys I knew became Democrats because it was the easiest way to get laid. My entire family was Democratic, both northern and southern. I am decidedly not. But, there are parts of the Republican party that really bug me too. I just figure at this point there is a better chance of changing the Republican party to fit classical liberalism than the Democrats. I think the education debate raging through the country is case and point. It’s the Dems that are fighting school vouchers and innovation. They are a slave to unions and entrenched bureaucracies.At least in NYC there is some debate come election day. In Chicago, there is about the same probability of a Republican getting elected as there was a capitalist getting elected in Soviet Russia.
This describes me pretty well.And yes, things only got worse in Chicago when Ted Kennedy became eligible to vote there a few years ago.
hurry up please tim cook.We have an important update to the app stuck in your approval funnel…..
Congratulations, Fred! Good show, and thank you.The biggest story in this post it HOW you’re voting. (No offense, but I think upgrading to a true democracy is sacrosanct.)You should be able to cast your ballot with:1.Lhoda2.Hidary3.Quinn4. Etc …Using First Past The Post we have to vote strategically to a limited number of “viable” candidates. Worse, due to Duverger’s law it forces us into a two party system from which we can’t escape. It’s not quite as bad as having candidates picked by a theocratic council, but the limitations are no less real.It’s embarrassing that the systems we use for picking our winners in entertainment (Heisman Trophy, Academy Awards) is so much more democratic than our country.A community as incisive as ours should be aware of, if not an advocate for such a core principle of democracy
“I thought I might like to think out loud when I named it that. Turns out I do.”.lol
So Fred, what concerns me about Quinn is her reputation for being Rudy G in a pantsuit: someone who won’t listen to others, uses strong-arm tactics to get her way, and is a screamer. Bloomberg has a similarly imperious attitude; I think he could have been even more effective if he got off his high horse every so often.Has Quinn just received bad press or is this a legitimate concern? Can a truly nice person ever be an effective mayor of NYC, or are these mutually exclusive concepts?
I have found her to be a very good listener over the years
being an outsider, and judging by the pictures, I think Jack Hidary may actually be Dave McClure in disguise 🙂 …has anyone ever heard Jack swear in front of large audiences ?
As a longtime reader (maybe all 10 years? started around the time of the family music podcasts) it also seems fitting that the new AM album drops today. Discovered them here. Congrats on the decade. Here is to another.
I’m not sure what I want in a mayor, but I do want something different. Manhattan is no longer livible for someone making under 90k. education costs inside nyc are spiralling out of control due to the way the gifted and talented program works (and private schools, and lack of day care)Beyond tech jobs, I want a tech city. Which means we needs to have more types of people here, and not push them out…
People complain about the cost of living in Manhattan.What they do not do is show an example of a first world, Top 10 in population megatropolis that, in its core area, is affordable.Its life in the economic food chain.
cities are becoming kingdoms. the poor are exiled to the suburbs, the new hotspot of poverty. only debt and monetary reform can fix the problem.
it is unsustainable – people leave constantly, especially if they have kids and make below a certain income level
You give good musings Fred. According to Feedblitz, Musings was the original title of today’s post, right?Reading some of the comments it sounds as though AVC has been transformative for many. It certainly has been (and continues to be) for me!Would be nice to hear more of these stories. AVC stories.
yeah, i changed the title in the late morning as i reflected on it
both the horseman and the cartload of comments influenced me a whole lot over the years.Go strong, avc !!
Apple failed. $549 / $649 for an off-contract 5C? Joke. http://techcrunch.com/2013/…I said this the last time you posted about this: Apple would half-ass this. They are a hardware company first, one that’s addicted to creating premium products. Apple doesn’t have it in their DNA to make “value” products, nor to compete on price when it comes to hardware (app store related products are another story). We saw it with the MacBook Air which, while its a cheap Mac, its still an expensive laptop comparative to the market. The iPhone 5C is a repeat. Neither will dominate market share, but both will hold onto a smaller share of people who love Apple for being Apple — which I’m not saying is a bad thing, since that’s how Apple has grown for 30-some years to become the world’s most valuable company.But recoup marketshare in the mobile phone market, it will not. The question is, will Apple not competing in the pre-paid market really be all that bad for the future of mobile technology? I’m not as skeptical as some, but I’m also only peripherally interested / educated on the issue.If Google made a decent laptop, I’d go all Google. But as of now, I’m more than happy with my MacBook and my Nexus 4. As far as I’m personally concerned, the world isn’t ended just because of Apple’s destined failure to recoup global mobile marketshare.
They did. C didnt mean Cheap.
I don’t know why everyone thought it would. When has Apple ever done anything to lead anyone to believe it would release a “cheap” product. Never, that’s when.
Haha, I was just looking at the map of the precincts and how they voted, I saw Union Square was coloured yellow for Christine Quinn, and I thought, oh, “I bet Fred voted for Quinn, I should go see.” That was right after I read this article that Quinn is considered the candidate for “let’s keep the momentum for start-ups going that Bloomberg created.”I hadn’t realized Quinn was the tech candidate until I read : http://techpresident.com/ne…And sure enough, you did vote for her lol!I did too, because:o some priests were rooting for her quietly (this is what politics is about, neighbourhoods, churches, what people say)o a woman and for gay rightso had worked out a working relationship with Ray Kelly and seemed willing to modify, if not eliminate stop and frisk.I’m a critic of stop ‘n frisk, but I also like moderation in all things and I like the crime rate having dropped. I don’t like socialism.I would have thought you might have gone with the Moveon.org favourite (De Blasio), the socialist choice of Eli Pariser claiming it’s about the “middle class” (i.e. about socialism). However, you show that you’re pragmatic about business in the end. You want socialism, but not for yourself. This is good for all of us.So it’s back to figuring out whether you are a technolibertarian in the end or a technocommunist.I imagine this concern does not keep you up at night.I hope there’s a runoff because I want a chance then to vote for Thompson, definitely will vote against De Blasio.
Between Lhota winning the primary and your endorsement, I’ve taken a first look.That look lasted about a split second. Former chairman of the MTA? I can’t think of a more inefficient organization. How can he run the whole city if he can’t even run its trains?!I’ll take de Blasio, and hope for the best.Or… I just got back from Portland, OR. Such a fine city. And maturing so quickly. You know, in case everything in NYC goes to shit. 🙂
i think this city would radically change if the mta had a swiss like approach to their trains. Seriously
Lhota was at the MTA for one year… and ran it well. He got it started back after Hurricane Sandy. Aside from that he was the budget director under Guiliani which GREATLY helped the city when it was going broke.de Blasio??? what has he ever done besides complain???
I’ll admit that I’m not as informed as I should be. I will not argue your points.In other news, I had more to say, but my goodness disqus mobile is… um… lacking. So frustrating to type / edit. Ugh.
Is Cocktail party still in the cards? : )
yes, but it is a private affair. look for an email.
now that the big day for iPhone has come and gone, what do you and folks here say ?* wasted opportunity ?* wait and see ?* …something else ?..
tesla is the worst. i think i might dislike tesla more than i dislike apple. apple at least had some admirable aspects, tesla has none, and gets more taxpayer subsidies. i’m going to add a definition to urban dictionary for tesla in which tesla means “totally overvalued.”
.The second those gov’t subsidies end, Tesla craters.JLM.
What about the bailouts the auto industry got? Why hate Tesla specific?
Hasn’t or doesn’t oil get subsidized? And what about the harm it does to our environment? Is that okay in your mind? Polluting our environment, and leading to people getting sick – that is?
Which legislator on either side of the aisle has balls big enough to kill any subsidy? Or, in the case of a female legislator..you can toss out the balls.
.Please explain how oil — one of the largest taxpayers in the US economy — is “subsidized”. How?Even if your premise were correct — which I believe it not to be — two wrongs do not make a right. Both Tesla and oil should stand on their own two feet.There is much to find fault with in the oil & gas industry — not nearly as much as some folks would suggest — and it too should carry its own burden.JLM.
tesla is bad for the environment too, in fact i’d argue it’s even worse than oil, which i am a fan of. what do you think generates the electricity to power tesla cars? mainly coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel of them all. and how about the lithium and vanadium that must be mined to create the batteries? how about the issue of battery disposal?
Creating systems where a whole society is dependant on oil, and then “oh they’re giving back through taxes” is narrowing the context to try to perceive to win an argument by ignoring the full picture – as you usually do, along with not actually answering what was asked.E.G. You completely ignored my asking you if you care about the environment, and people’s health?So do you?
siding with JLM in this beef. all the people who hate on oil are so dependent upon it is ridiculous. go ask someone in some energy starved part of the world about how terrible oil is. they’ll tell you not having a great source of energy is far worse, and that they watch their friends and family die because of this lack of energy. there is no real substitute for oil at this point, it is such a good source of energy, a fact humorously lost on those who live prosperous lives thanks largely to living with oil abundance.
watch what happens when he tries to scale. the short answer is that he won’t be, unless there are massive subsidies (which there might be, though that’s not a true entrepreneurial victory in my opinion).
“0-60 in 5 secs”The engine noise is part of that fun. I have a car that beats that time. Hearing the engine is key as well as shifting (at least to me).Mass adoption of electric is not guaranteed. Cars are kept on the street in addition to parking lots etc. This idea that you will reach a tipping point with recharge stations that operate like gas stations has yet to be proven. And something like that could be enough to retard adoption.Given enough time anything is possible but I just don’t see the mass in this market coming anytime in the near future.
why hate on the auto industry? why not hate on hitler or stalin?charlie mentioned tesla, if he were to mention something else that sucked i would have addressed that accordingly.
Not a tesla fan or anything but I would say that it is a true entrepreneurial victory. Being able to take advantage of the system and game the system is part of being an entrepreneur.
Yeah agree and didn’t read this when I essentially made the same comment above.
i’m betting he’s misunderstood the economics of energy, and that as tenacious as he is, the fundamentals of economics and energy are more resistant. but perhaps he can continue stealing from the public via subsidies to compensate for unviable economics.
you charge at home for the most part.Who is “you”? I happen to have a two car garage but the electricity in the garage probably isn’t going to charge a car (amps). I would need to upgrade that. And the outlet is only on on one side so it couldn’t handle two vehicles. So you are talking about doing electrical work.And if a third car is purchased where is that going to get charged? Swap in and out? Forget about that.And what about people that live in apartments with outside lots?Or people that park their cars on the street in urban areas?Or what about my situation at work where it’s an office condo? I’m on the board and I can assure you we aren’t going to put in any charging stations it’s hard enough to get condo boards to agree to allow Verizon, at their expense, to tear up asphalt and install FIOS (and what I’m saying applies to several situations in both living and working spaces that I am personally familiar with).Not to mention the fact that people buy cars for the edge cases of use (take a look at 4 wheel drive vs. amount of time it snows).Lastly, the more someone drives the more they will save with an electric vehicle (and I don’t know the savings but it still costs money to generate electricity to charge your vehicle). So the people who will save the most in theory have the most issues to deal with in terms of charging. As opposed to someone like me who doesn’t drive that much. But that’s also one of the reasons I don’t buy a scooter to drive the 4 miles to work. It really wouldn’t save that much money.Just some counterpoints. Will be interesting seeing how all this plays out.
energy density is all that matters when it comes to energy (oversimplification, but not by much). compare solar’s energy density to that of any other energy source, and you’ll understand why solar hasn’t scaled and why it probably never will.oil prices are headed higher, but that means nuclear is the only option because it is the only one with sufficient energy density. musk doesn’t fully appreciate this and if he did, i think he’d have a very different strategy.
Solar is stupid … it can only grow plants (which has the highest energy conversion chemical ‘chlorophyll’ …)… but can never run a car.Solar is a very weak energy available in abandon spread over millions of square miles….much worse than water (falls), wind and tide.
balls big enough….no one in politics have that across the world… but people with no-balls can be blown up by external compressors can show it off like what is gonna happen in India….we are gonna cut all the subsidies …and gonna provide only grains and rice at cheap price but not the fuels to cook them …funny.
.In the instance of the Tesla subsidy, it will die of its own accord.JLM.
Yep and I agree with all the scientific knowledge I have.
The waste from electric cars can be contained and managed. Wars from oil come to mind when thinking of issues. Humans in fact are bad for the environment, we should really just all not exist. And we’re on a path to not needing coal, very rapidly.
what is going to replace coal?if they don’t use oil they will use something else for war, as evidenced by the fact that the US department of defense is one of the largest consumers of so-called renewable energy.
.Whoa, partner — “as you usually do, along with not actually answering what was asked” — bit of a personal attack, no?First, I am not required to answer your questions, we are just chatting amiably. Well, I am anyway.Your question as to the environment and pollution was a sophism — obviously any person is concerned about the environment and opposed to pollution. It was insulting to even ask that question.So again, — what subsidy has the oil industry received?Most folks will cite the oil depletion allowance which is tantamount to the depreciation deduction in capital equipment, a cost associated with the consumption of capital.Other than that I am not aware of a unique subsidy received by the oil industry. I live in an Oil Patch state and have drilled a well.JLM.
From Wikipedia – http://en.wikipedia.org/wik…”Allocation of subsidiesA 2009 study by the Environmental Law Institute assessed the size and structure of U.S. energy subsidies over the 2002–2008 period. The study estimated that subsidies to fossil-fuel based sources amounted to approximately $72 billion over this period and subsidies to renewable fuel sources totaled $29 billion. The study did not assess subsidies supporting nuclear energy.The three largest fossil fuel subsidies were:1. Foreign tax credit ($15.3 billion)2. Credit for production of non-conventional fuels ($14.1 billion)3.Oil and Gas exploration and development expensing ($7.1 billion)…”And there are more subsidies for non-fossil fuel specific, though for burnable fuels.And you know what they say about assuming … though technically I should write it out for you to not assume you know what I’m going to say.
I think I get what you are at…Somehow the comments makes on think that you want to give the fuel free as well !!