Posts from entrepreneurship

CEO 360s

I’ve written about this topic before. It is an important topic and I want to raise it again.

Boards often discuss CEO performance without really knowing how things work inside the company. And CEOs often have very little visibility to how they are doing and what the board thinks about their performance. When you work for one person, your boss, it is typical that you will have regular catchups and at least an annual review of your performance (ideally more frequent). But when you work for a group, i.e. a Board, things can get very “squishy” leaving for a lot of guesswork and worse.

Enter the CEO 360.

This is a process whereby the CEO is reviewed by their direct reports and by the Board members and often a few more people (a few skip levels, some investors who aren’t on the board, etc). It is frequently done annually but it could be done more often if the CEO would like that.

This process can be run by the CEO’s coach, an outside facilitator, or someone else. Our portfolio company Bolster offers an excellent CEO 360 at a very reasonable price.

I am often amazed by what I learn from a CEO 360. I frequently see CEOs who are excellent at managing down and run a very solid leadership team but struggle with managing their Board. These CEOs are often seen as weak when in fact they are strong. The opposite is also true. I have seen CEOs who are excellent at managing up but terrible at leading their team and their Boards love them but their team hates them.

What is even more important for everyone is the insights that come from a CEO 360. Like all 360s, they tell the CEO where they are strong and what they need to work on. Armed with that information and a supportive Board and others (coach, mentor, CEO support group, etc), CEOs can take action to get better at their job. Without this information, it is hard to “level up.”

If you are a CEO and don’t do a CEO 360 annually, you should start doing one. And make it a regular occurrence. It will help you do your job better and it will help everyone around you too.

#entrepreneurship#management

Bi-Directional EV Charging

EV sales in the US are on the rise, reaching 7% of all car sales in Q1 2023, up from 4.6% a year earlier. If that rate of growth continues, EVs will be 10% of the US car market by next year.

Most people who own an EV charge it at home, using an EV charger. Our family owns a few different models. Here are two of them.

The reason we have two chargers right next to each other is one charges our Tesla and the other charges our other EVs. It is like an iPhone and an Android. Each has its own charging cable. I expect that is going to get sorted out soon as the EV market will work a lot better with a standard charging cable.

But what is even more interesting to me is the idea of bi-directional EV charging.

Right now, EV charging is “one way”. Those chargers take power from our home (either from our solar panels or the grid) and send it to our EVs.

But it does not have to work that way. There are bi-directional chargers that can take the power from our EVs and send it to our home.

That would be very useful in the event of a power outage. But it could also be useful to supplement our solar panels at night. Imagine our solar panels filling up our EV batteries during the day when it is sunny out and our EVs powering our home at night when it is not.

This is a nice primer on the topic of bi-directional EV charging. I like this diagram from that primer.

That is the simplest version of bi-directional EV charging. That primer has a bunch more diagrams of more sophisticated versions.

As we transition from a centralized electrical grid to a decentralized electrical grid over the next few decades, storage on the edge (homes, etc) will become critical to making the transition work. And EVs are a huge source of storage that are mostly not connected to the grid right now.

That is going to change and there are lots of opportunities to build innovative services around bi-directional charging as a result.

The Gotham Gal and I make environmentally designed apartment buildings and the one we are making right now has eight parking spots in the basement. We will outfit those parking spots with bi-directional chargers so that the cars in the garage will be connected to the apartments and they can power them in the event of a power outage. We expect to be able to offer additional services to our tenants over time using this technology.

The forty years that I have worked in information technology have seen a remarkable decentralization of computing from mainframes to computers in our pockets. And that has unleashed an enormous wave of innovation. I expect we will see the same thing in the energy grid/market over the next forty years. I am really excited to witness that.

#climate crisis#entrepreneurship#hacking energy

Leading From The Heart

I have watched so many leaders over the years in my various roles as lead investor, board member, board chair, investor, and advisor.

And one thing I have learned from this front-row seat is that leading from the heart is very powerful.

A leader can be the most brilliant product person, strategist, entrepreneur, and business builder, but if they cannot get people to follow them, trust them, and care for them, they will not be an effective leader.

This is a hard lesson to learn. It is a fairly natural tendency to hold your emotions in check when you are in front of a large group of people. We are taught to project strength in moments like this.

And it is also a natural tendency to hold back the most difficult-to-process information, like a fundraising process that is not going well, or conflicts in the board room, or a co-founder relationship that is fraying, or the loss of the biggest customer, or a key supplier relationship that is at risk.

And yet, it is these exact moments where leaders develop that followership, trust, and care from the team.

I am not suggesting that leaders should become deeply emotional every time they talk to the team. I am not suggesting that leaders share every little detail about the business with the team. I understand that some details about the business need to stay confidential until the appropriate time to communicate them. There is a balance to all of this.

I am suggesting that more transparency, more vulnerability, and more honesty is the winning formula and when you are choosing between the two, choose these things.

One of my favorite stories about this comes from a particularly difficult moment in my career where I had to transition a founder out of the company they started. It was the night before the all-hands where the CEO transition was going to be announced. I asked the founder if they were going to attend the all-hands and the founder said no. I then asked the founder what I should tell the team. The founder said, “tell them you fired me because that is what happened”.

The next day I stood up in front of the entire company and told the team the Board had asked the founder to leave the company they started and that the Board had asked a member of the team to step into the CEO role.

After the all-hands ended, there was a line of about twenty or thirty people long to talk to me. And every single one of them waited in line to tell me the same thing which was “thank you for telling us the truth.”

It was a powerful lesson for me. And like most of the lessons I’ve learned in business, I learned it from a founder and their team.

If you are struggling to build the level of trust you want with the team in your company, try a little more transparency, vulnerability, and honesty in your communication style. It will pay dividends.

#entrepreneurship#life lessons#management

The Daily Bolster

USV is an investor in Bolster, a marketplace for fractional and full-time executive talent for startups and growth companies.

This week Bolster launched a daily short (5min) podcast and email with actionable insights and advice from founders, operators, and investors. It is called The Daily Bolster.

I did a Daily Bolster episode and it is featured today. I’ve embedded it below and you can watch it here if you are reading AVC via email.

The daily email contains a short pull quote from the daily podcast which in and of itself is quite useful but is also a prompt to spend five minutes and watch or listen to the daily podcast.

I strongly recommend founders and operators in the startup and growth sectors subscribe to the daily email and podcast. You can do that here:

Subscribe to The Daily Bolster Email

Podcast:

Subscribe on Apple Podcasts

Subscribe on Spotify

Subscribe on YouTube

#entrepreneurship#management

The VC's Customer

I saw Dan Primack assert that the venture capitalist’s customer is their limited partners in this tweet about the Citizen app, the recap, and their VCs:

I DM’d Dan to let him know that is not the right way to think about the venture capital business.

Back in 2005, in the early days of this blog, I wrote this post on the topic.

The entrepreneur is the customer and the LP is the shareholder. That’s the only way to think about the venture capital business that makes sense to me.

https://avc.com/2005/11/the_vcs_custome/

I encourage everyone to read that post. It is one of the most important things I’ve written about the VC/founder relationship and I would not change a single word in it almost twenty years later.

#entrepreneurship#VC & Technology

What Does "Native" Mean

When a new technology comes to market, we often look for “native” applications of that technology.

What is a “native” AI application?

What is a “native” Web3 application?

I have not seen a better articulation of “native” than my partner Albert’s post from 2009 on native mobile applications.

He started out by laying out the new primitives that mobile smartphones made available to developers. In the case of mobile, he cited:

  • Location
  • Proximity
  • Touch
  • Audio Input
  • Video Input

He then went on to say that it would be the combination of these primitives, more than any individual one, that would make for native mobile applications.

And then he went on to lay out some of the applications he was seeing that were native.

If you want to figure out what the native AI applications or the native Web3 applications will be, or the native AI/Web3 applications, start by laying out the new primitives and going from there.

#entrepreneurship#VC & Technology#Web/Tech#Web3

The 83b Election

First and foremost, this is not tax advice. I am not a tax advisor and you should never take anything you read here as tax advice. If you read something here that makes you think you should take some tax-related action, please always consult your tax advisor.

With that disclosure out of the way, I would like to talk about 83b elections.

An 83b election is a choice a taxpayer can make to pay the taxes in full at the time of the grant of an asset that vests over time and would otherwise be taxed as the asset vests.

So why would you want to do that?

Well, if the value of the asset at the time of grant is quite low and the taxes would not be significant to you, you might want to make an 83b election. Otherwise, you will be taxed as the asset vests and if the asset increases in value, those taxes could be significantly larger.

Let’s look at an example. Let’s say you join a company that is very early stage and you are one of the first employees. Let’s say you are granted 100,000 shares of restricted stock that vest over four years and the current value of each of those shares is $0.10. That means the entire grant is worth $10,000 (100,000*0.1). If you file an 83b election, you are volunteering to pay the taxes on that $10,000 even though the shares vest over the next four years. The taxes on that $10,000 will depend on where you live, but will generally be in the range of $2500 to $5000.

Now let’s say you decide not to file an 83b (or worse, you never heard of an 83b election and nobody suggested you file one). Let’s say one year later, your first vesting period happens, and 25,000 shares vest. And let’s say that the stock has increased significantly in value to $1/share over the first year. That means that the 25,000 shares that have vested will generate $25,000 in taxable income to you and the taxes you will owe on them will be in the range of $6,000 to $12,000. And you still have 75% of your grant unvested and the stock might keep going up, creating more taxes for you over the next three years.

You have 30 days post grant to file an 83b election so you must move quickly if you want to do this.

The downside of the 83b election is you will have paid the taxes on the stock even though you may leave the company and not vest into any or all of it. That is the risk you are taking when you file an 83b election and you must consider that risk when you make the election. In life, there are generally no free lunches.

If you are being granted restricted stock, founders stock, or some other asset that vests over time, you should ask your employer and your tax advisor if you should file an 83b election. There is a good chance you will want to.

The reason I decided to write about 83b elections today is that USV signed onto a comment letter to the IRS last week asking them to make e-filing and e-signing of 83b elections permanent. You can read the comment letter here.

83b elections are an important tax strategy for founders and early employees in startups and they should be used more frequently than they are. And it should be dead simple to file one. Taxes are hard enough for the average startup employee to understand and comply with. We should not make it harder.

#economics#employment#entrepreneurship#life lessons

The Rebrand

I’d guess that upwards of half of USV’s portfolio companies have changed the name of their company during their lifetime. It is not hard to understand why. Founders start out with an idea and not much more. By the time they have built a product, built a team, and found product market fit, they might be doing something a bit different or a lot different than where they started out.

Most often the name change comes in the first few years when the business opportunity comes into clarity and the original name becomes an issue.

But occasionally it comes much later in life.

A good example of the later in life name change is our portfolio company Dronebase which changed its name to Zeitview this week. We made a seed investment in Dronebase eight years ago about six months after the company was formed. So the company is in its ninth year.

Zietview does aerial inspections of buildings, renewable energy infrastructure, and telecommunications systems using advanced AI/ML software. It is a high-growth business that just raised a $50mm late-stage round.

Over time, the company has adopted many techniques to acquire the imagery that they use to do the AI/ML inspections. Drones are still a big part of the mix but only when they are the best way to acquire the imagery.

So it came time for a rebrand. The Company took its time, thought a lot about it, hired a rebranding agency, surveyed all of its stakeholders, cleared all of the typical conflicts, and landed on Zeitview. They rolled out the name change this week.

I will miss the name Dronebase. I have had good success investing in companies with “base” in the name 🙂 But I am already warming to Zeitview. The two-syllable name with a well-known noun in the second spot is always a great approach to a name.

#entrepreneurship

What Will Happen In 2023

I want to focus this post on the macro environment for tech, startups, web3, and climate because that is where my head is at right now.

I believe that sometime in the first half of 2023, the central banks around the world will start backing off the tightening that they have been engaged in as inflation continues to ease and the economy continues to cool. Interest rates will level off in the first half of 2023 and I think there is a good chance of a “soft landing” or a very mild recession in 2023.

With that macro view in mind, what would that mean for tech, startups, and web3?

The largest tech companies will emerge from this downturn leaner and more profitable and growing more slowly. They will be mature businesses that behave like the blue chips that they are. I think these companies, like Apple, Amazon, and possibly Google, will see their stocks come back into favor ahead of everything else in tech. I am hedging on Google because I believe the massive advances in AI/ML that we are seeing right now may be a threat to their core search franchise.

Startups are going to have a tough year in 2023. While many have gotten their burn rates way down, most startups still are losing money and will eventually need to raise capital in 2023. Because most startups avoided raising in 2022, there will be a glut of startup companies in the market for capital this year and while there is plenty of venture capital sitting on the sidelines waiting to be deployed, VCs will be much more selective, instead of funding everything that moves as we’ve done over the last few years.

Good businesses with product market fit, positive unit economics, and strong leadership teams will raise capital although it will be at the new normal in terms of valuation. I believe that “new normal” is more or less where we were in 2015 where seed rounds were done around $10mm, A rounds were done around $15mm to $25mm, B rounds were done around $25mm to $50mm, and growth rounds had a cap at 10x revenues. This new normal will lead to many flat rounds, down rounds, inside rounds, and rounds with a lot of structure on them. None of that is good, but the worst of those options is rounds with a lot of structure. I believe founders and CEOS and Boards should take the pain of a new valuation (flat, down, whatever) over structure.

But there is a huge number of startups out there that have not really found product market fit, have not created positive unit economics, and have unresolved issues in their founding teams and leadership teams. These startups will struggle to raise capital at any price and most of them will fail. This has already started to happen but because so much capital was raised in 2021 and the early part of 2022, it has taken longer for these companies to fail. I think we will see a lot of startups in this category go under or taken out in fire sales in the first half of 2023.

While all of that sounds gloomy and downright horrible, I do think the startup sector will end the year in a much better place. The good companies will have gotten funded, the bad ones will have shut down, and VCs will be back to competing with each other to win deals, which is where founders always want VCs to be.

I think web3 will behave similarly in some respects but different in others.

I think the large caps in web3 (BTC and ETH mainly) will start to attract more interest from investors and should do well in 2023. I am more bullish on ETH personally because it has the best underlying economic model of any web3 asset.

Like the startup sector more broadly, web3 will go through a triage of sorts in 2023. Projects and protocols that have found product market fit, have real token economics, and ship new features quickly will attract new interest and rise in value. But many web3 projects have not found product market fit, have weak or no token economics, and do not execute well and I think we will see many of them continue to flounder and fail in 2023.

There is a much larger overhang in web3 right now when compared to the broader startup and tech sectors. There are entities that are insolvent but have not been restructured. There are funds that are so far under water that they may be forced to liquidate. These kinds of activities will produce ongoing sell pressure on web3 tokens for at least the first quarter of 2023 and maybe for much longer.

While there are compelling values out there in web3, I am not convinced that it is safe to go back into the water just yet unless you have a very strong stomach and a very long time horizon.

Climate, where USV has been actively investing for the last three years and now has two funds dedicated to the sector, has mostly been spared the carnage that has hit the other parts of USV’s portfolio. 2022 brought largely good news to the sector in the form of the oddly named Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) that will flow billions of dollars of capital into the sector over the next decade. Many leading VC firms have dedicated climate funds now and we see huge amounts of capital available for climate startups with strong teams and novel approaches.

Last year I predicted 2022 would be a big year for carbon credits and while we saw a lot of growth in the market for these credits, particularly among the large tech companies, I was way too optimistic about how fast the market would grow. That said, I think 2023 will bring more growth in this market which provides the underlying business model to many of the new climate startups VCs are funding right now.

We are also seeing a noticeable movement of tech and startup talent into the climate sector in search of new problems to solve, more meaning in their work, and many more job openings too. I think 2023 will be a big year for this talent migration.

There is a pattern to much of this and it is that 2023 is going to be a tough year for most but those that get through it should find themselves in a good place, with leaner cost structures, less competition, and healthier employer/employee dynamics. Surviving is thriving in 2023.

So to everyone who is reading this, Happy 2023. Buckle up, hang tough, and be smart.

#blockchain#climate crisis#crypto#economics#employment#entrepreneurship#management#stocks#VC & Technology#Web/Tech#Web3

What Happened In 2022

I like to bookend the New Year holiday with two posts, one looking back at the year that is ending and one looking forward to the year ahead. This is the first of these two posts. The second one will run tomorrow.

What happened in 2022 is the bottom fell out of the capital markets and the startup and tech sector more broadly.

Back in February 2021, I wrote a post called How This Ends. In it, I wrote:

I believe it ends when the Covid 19 pandemic is over and the global economy recovers. Those two things won’t necessarily happen at the same time. There is a wide range of recovery scenarios and nobody really knows how long it will take the global economy to recover from the pandemic.

But at some point, economies will recover, central banks will tighten the money supply, and interest rates will rise. We may see price inflation of consumer goods and labor too, although that is less clear.

When economies recover and interest rates rise, the air will come out of the asset price bubbles that have built up and the go go markets will hit the brakes.

I went on to say that I had no idea when all of that would happen, but I was confident it would.

Well, it happened in 2022.

The air came out of the asset price bubbles that had built up over the last decade and were accelerated/exaggerated by the pandemic. There have been a number of other factors at work, like a war in Europe, that made things even worse, but it is my view that most of what happened in 2022 was entirely predictable, expected, and necessary.

In the areas that USV works in; tech, startups, and web3, there have been a number of important downstream effects of the popping of the bubble and they are worth enumerating.

As the capital markets, including crypto/web3, came undone, companies reacted by adjusting their burn rates to reflect that the growth at any cost phase was over and it was time to get on a path to breakeven. That has meant layoffs across the tech, startup, and web3 sectors. The voracious appetite for talent has waned. Spending for growth has largely stopped and most tech companies and startups are growing more slowly but with better unit economics and lower cash burn.

Some startups have failed, particularly the ones with upside-down unit economics or with a lack of product market fit. I think we have just seen the start of this trend and I plan to talk more about this in tomorrow’s post.

The sector with the largest impact, obviously, has been web3. Many large centralized entities; lenders, exchanges, crypto funds, etc, blew up when the value of web3 assets declined 70-90% over the course of 2022. The carnage has been massive and reminds me of what happened to the web sector in 2000/2001. Some of this has been markets doing their thing, but not all of it was. There was fraud, mismanagement, irresponsible risk-taking, and more, at play in the web3 sector.

And yet, I am not aware of any leading decentralized protocols blowing up in 2022. The smart contracts that run these protocols did what they were programmed to do and they have come through intact. It is a testament to the power of decentralized protocols over centralized entities and, for me, the major lesson of 2022 in web3.

I used the word necessary a few paragraphs ago to describe what happened in 2022. I understand that this year has been painful for most and devastating for many. I am not immune to it. Our family’s net worth has taken a massive hit. The carrying value of USV’s assets under management has been cut in half this year. And yet, I am fine, my family is fine, and USV is fine. Many are not. I understand that and have a lot of empathy for those who lost so much, including their jobs, this year.

And yet, I know that the unwinding of an unhealthy and unsustainable growth at all costs/cheap capital environment was necessary and will be healthy in the long run. We already see many of our portfolio companies operating at much more sensible cost structures with clear paths to profitability at much lower growth rates.

The ending of the war for talent in tech also is incredibly healthy. Some leading tech company CEOs I know believe they can operate with much lower headcounts in product/engineering/design than they have been for the long term. That talent can move into new startups and new growth areas, like climate and healthcare, that need it.

Like all transitions, this is messy, painful, disruptive, and ugly. And this year has been all of that and more. I am happy to see it in the rearview mirror and looking forward to better things in 2023. Which will be my topic for tomorrow.

#blockchain#crypto#Current Affairs#economics#employment#entrepreneurship#management#stocks#VC & Technology#Web/Tech#Web3